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Posted TNtitans on 29 August 2013 - 10:04 AM
Posted MTSuper7 on 22 September 2014 - 09:52 PM
Posted Grits and Shins on 12 September 2014 - 01:31 AM
Posted Scorcher on 20 August 2014 - 08:00 PM
Posted whomper on 16 September 2014 - 10:30 AM
Posted keggerz on 04 November 2013 - 02:19 PM
Posted Savage Beatings on 20 November 2014 - 10:20 AM
Posted Big Country on 12 September 2014 - 10:54 AM
Posted scoop55 on 04 June 2014 - 10:57 PM
I debated hard on at my 3.09 pick whether to take WR Brandon Coleman (a coveted player for me and somewhat sleeper and tandem to my 1.03 Cooks pick) or take a needed QB for depth. Need ruled out and I went with QB Savage as a potential starter as early as late this season or perhaps next season.
Coleman was key though....He's the guy I wanted. Yet, I reasoned that if I didn't get Coleman.....another QB and WR I wanted were still out there and they would be consolation prizes I could live with.
I figured...oh well, I'll take the chance he'll fall to 3.14, my next pick.
3.10 Rhinos picks RB Storm Johnson.
3.11 Monkey picks RB Marion Grice
3.12 Phantom picks WR John Brown
3.13 Vanquish picks WR Shaq Evans
PERFECT. Not one of my circled picks went there. It was beautiful. Freakin Aye!!!!!!
Then something happened. As I was about to take my guy Coleman and complete my perfect draft.....Dave (Jaws't Win) jumps online......immediately chatting that he's up for trading some "late or future late picks for any of the next few picks.......
So my mind wandered. And I wavered off my "plan". I shot him a private chat comment about garnering his next pick plus my 4th and 5th rounders back for 2015.
I surmised that if I trade my pick, I could get his next pick this draft (4.05, just 8 picks later) and garner my late picks for next year. I rationalized that if I did this, my earlier trade with Jaws on moving up to the 1.03 pick (Cooks) would essentially just cost me a 2nd rounder next year and $8 DAD bucks. Pretty good deal, no?
I wasn't really thinking thru it though, because Dave had also made a private comment that he couldn't possibly use all of next year's picks....but I was already hooked on my idea. I probably could have gotten those picks without selling mine.
So I did the deal. After all, I still had my eye on 3 players. What are the chances they would all go in the next 8 picks???
3.14 JAWS picks QB Mettenberger.....no worries, that wasn't my target QB.
3.15 Berlin picks WR Norwood......nope, not either of my WR's.
3.16 Mud picks RB Taliaferro.....freakin awesome.
I've got 5 picks ahead of me....and 3 guys I would take, including my man WR Coleman are still there. And Monkey's picks have been off my radar for 3 days....I wasn't really worried about him.
Ever just know things aren't going to work out in a "moment"??????
4.01.....Casino drafts WR Huff......ouch. But no worries. He was my #2 of the 3 players.
4.02.....Vesper drafts QB Thomas....ouch......but it made sense, because he's got an aging Palmer on his roster about to retire. He was my #3 guy.
And then I text DieNasty (befitting name now) on whether he would "sell" that pick. But I had spent most of Monkey's DAD$ he gave me from trading my 1.08 pick who he later traded to Brentastic to move up to earlier 2nd and 3rd round picks.
I was worried, but I reasoned......really scoop, what are the chances Gamebreaker will take your guy????
I could almost hear his voice as time was running out when he texted "going, going...."
Even then, Gamebreaker still gave me a last shot to pull the trigger on a trade.... asking "Should I go ahead and pick?"
I balked....and alas, I just told him to pick away.
And the rest is history.....
Moral of the story.....TAKE YOUR GUY IF HE'S THERE AND YOU'RE UP!
****** My apologies for the long read.
Posted MTSuper7 on 17 September 2014 - 04:34 PM
Here's a breakdown of what I found:
vs. ATL on 10/7/12 - 9 attempts, 2 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)
vs. BAL on 12/9/12 - 2 attempts, 1 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)
@. CLE on 12/16/12 - 37 attempts, 12 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 6-65-0)
@ DEN on 10/27/13 - 9 attempts, 3 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)
vs. KC on 12/8/13 - 16 attempts, 3 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)
@. ATL on 12/15/13 - 45 attempts, 10 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 7-129-1)
vs. DAL on 12/22/13 - 36 attempts, 18 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 11-144-1)
@. NYG on 12/29/13 - 49 attempts, 10 to Garcon (started and played whole game, went 6-56-0)
vs. JAX on 9/14/14 - 33 attempts, 4 to Garcon (came on for an injured RG3)
There are a couple of things that stick out to me from this data (albeit small sample size):
1 - In games where Cousins goes into the week taking reps with the first team, knowing he will start that Sunday, Garcon averaged 12.5 targets. That extrapolates to 200 targets over a 16 game span which would have been 13 more targets than A.J. Green last year who led the NFL at 187 targets.
2 - Garcon averaged over a 7.5-98.5-0.5 line over those starts. That extrapolates to 120-1568-8 over a 16 game span.
3 - In games where Cousins came on in relief prior to this year, he targeted Garcon on just 25% of his passes. That's only 5% fewer than the 30% target rate in games he started.
4 - The 12% target rate from last week's Jacksonville game is the first Cousins game under new head coach Jay Gruden's offensive scheme. For what it's worth, Garcon was targeted on 12 of 37 RG3 passes in week 1 under Gruden's offensive scheme (32.4%).
So is there anything that can be assumed going forward?
This data at least makes me feel like last week was probably an anomaly. Garcon was the most targeted receiver last week, and he has been the most targeted receiver for Cousins in the games that Cousins has started this week. Further, Garcon has led the team in receiving yards in all four of those starts and led them in targets in 3 of the 4 (Santana Moss had 8 catches in the ATL game compared to Garcon's 7). Plus, even though the extrapolated numbers aren't a realistic expecation for what would happen with a Cousins-Garcon 16 game season, it does serve as a reminder that Garcon has a history as the clear cut #1 receiver for the team, and Jay Gruden's Cincinnati offenses ranked higher in each of his successive years in pass attempts, passing TDs and passing yards (and that was on a team that has a really good defense, meaning they weren't throwing out of necessity as often as Washington probably will).
I hope this info is useful to people holding or considering a trade for Garcon. It certainly helped me kill the end of my work day posting this!!!
Posted itsALLaboutME on 27 May 2014 - 05:57 PM
Posted Shorttynaz on 13 March 2014 - 07:31 PM
BREAKING: Raiders agree to 10-year contract extension with 4th place in the AFC West.
Posted HowboutthemCowboys on 22 December 2013 - 11:19 PM
Posted Tripleshot on 03 November 2013 - 02:48 PM
Posted Chief Dick on 24 September 2013 - 09:05 AM
Posted whomper on 24 November 2014 - 12:45 PM
Posted Wpob on 19 November 2014 - 06:35 AM
Posted flemingd on 27 October 2014 - 09:51 PM
Posted whomper on 22 October 2014 - 08:02 AM
Posted Tripleshot on 08 October 2014 - 10:59 PM
Rookie mistake planning a honeymoon during waiver period.
Or for honeymooning somewhere without a wifi or 4g connection. You let her dictate no fantasy football on the honeymoon and she's already got a leg up on asking you to clothes shop with her on Sundays after you get back. Even if she's awesome in bed, fantasy football is 17 weeks long. Those 17 Sundays are more times than she's going to put out in a year even for a newlywed.