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The 4 highest season totals from the last 12 years are from running backs so their ceiling is a tad higher. Wide receivers definitely have a higher floor. The biggest difference in floor wasn't running backs getting hurt, though they did get hurt a bit more often. The biggest difference was that running backs would sometimes just suck for no apparent reason. A lot of the time it was a running back who had only been good for one year previously. Receivers drafted in the first round had almost always been elite for several years and injury was the only way they didn't meet their expectations.

Below is the average fantasy points of each round one draft position over the last 12 years separated by position. I used MFL adp rank, not their actual MFL adp. For instance, Antonio Brown had an adp of 2.11 last year, but he had the highest adp so he would be considered to have had an adp rank of 1. Points system used is ppr, .1 per yard rushing or receiving, 4 points passing td, .05 points per yard passing, -2 for fumbles, -2 for interceptions. Pick 1 11 rb averaged 298 points 1 wr averaged 308 points Pick 2 1 qb averaged 388 points 9 rb averaged 269 points 2 wr averaged 339 points Pick 3 1 qb averaged 281 points 9 rb averaged 210 points 2 wr averaged 242 points Pick 4 2 qb averaged 76 points 10 rb averaged 270 points Pick 5 3 qb averaged 362 points 6 rb averaged 237 points 3 wr averaged 318 points Pick 6 2 qb averaged 380 points 7 rb averaged 245 points 3 wr averaged 333 points Pick 7 3 qb averaged 285 points 6 rb averaged 187 points 3 wr averaged 224 points Pick 8 2 qb averaged 292 points 7 rb averaged 230 points 2 wr averaged 232 points 1 te averaged 229 points Pick 9 1 qb averaged 338 points 7 rb averaged 160 points 3 wr averaged 206 points 1 te averaged 255 points Pick 10 3 qb averaged 323 points 8 rb averaged 263 points 1 wr averaged 205 points Pick 11 3 qb averaged 306 points 7 rb averaged 169 points 1 wr averaged 314 points 1 te averaged 97 points Pick 12 1 qb averaged 362 points 5 rb averaged 186 points 6 wr averaged 251 points Overall in the first round of the last 12 years 22 qb averaged 304 points 92 rb averaged 233 points 27 wr averaged 266 points 3 te averaged 193 points

Compiled below are the fantasy points scored in weeks 14-16 from players with a first round adp rank in the last 3 years. 14 running backs played 36 of 42 games totaling 619.8 points for an average of 17.217 points per game played. 15 wide receivers played 39 of 45 games totaling 674.6 points for an average of 17.297 points per game played.

the general pattern seems to confirm what i would expect, which is that WRs are safer picks floor-wise that there's not any huge benefit ceiling-wise to either position

Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 9 times running backs have had adp rank in the first 6 picks of the first round in the last 3 years. The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 8 times wide receivers have had adp rank in the first 6 picks of the first round in the last 3 years. 407 382 346 369 325 340 272 319 261 250 308 199 296 199 259 140 226

Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 14 times running backs have had adp rank in first round in the last 3 years. The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 15 times wide receivers have had adp rank in the first round in the last 3 years. 407 382 346 369 325 340 317 319 302 316 272 308 261 296 267 250 261 199 259 199 226 141 205 140 199 82 197 9 186

Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 37 times running backs have had adp rank in first round in the last 6 years. The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 20 times wide receivers have had adp rank in the first round in the last 6 years. 407 378 382 372 346 369 330 328 359 325 317 342 305 303 340 302 319 302 283 316 275 272 308 261 250 306 232 225 303 222 211 296 207 267 199 199 261 199 178 259 178 154 226 152 144 205 141 140 199 108 197 82 68 186 18 9 95

Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 29 times running backs have had adp rank in the first 3 picks of the first round in the last 12 years. The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 27 times wide receivers have had adp rank in all 12 picks of the first round in the last 12 years. 481 382 376 369 372 359 370 342 367 340 366 319 323 316 321 314 303 308 302 283 306 277 303 276 296 272 287 270 284 262 267 261 261 250 259 234 256 232 217 232 207 226 201 208 199 205 142 199 140 197 127 186 108 97 68 95

Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 92 times running backs have had a first round adp rank in the last 12 years. The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 27 times wide receivers have had a first round adp rank in the last 12 years. Since there are 3.4 more running backs chosen than wide receivers, I've put the wide receivers results proportionately down the list. 481 415 382 407 392 378 376 369 372 370 370 359 367 366 346 342 330 328 325 323 340 321 317 310 319 305 303 302 302 316 298 283 277 314 276 276 276 308 275 272 272 270 306 262 261 250 303 246 243 243 236 296 234 234 233 287 232 231 227 284 226 224 225 222 267 217 211 208 261 207 205 204 203 259 202 201 199 256 199 199 198 232 189 185 178 178 226 177 176 155 208 154 152 151 144 205 142 141 140 199 140 137 129 197 128 127 127 123 186 108 95 82 97 80 70 68 95 18 9

would be cool to see just 2014-2016 if you have the data on excel or something (and additional rounds would be very cool too) cause i feel like the prevailing draft philosophy up until the past few years was much more RB heavy in the first round. i did a brief skim of the some of the historical ADPs from the link you posted and it seems to support that. and it seems like there were less WRs in the top half of the first round compared to now. i didn't see many WRs going before picks 8 or 9 or so other than Calvin sneaking into like 4-6 a few times, and i don't think i saw any WRs going in the top 3 picks ever until 2014. that seems to be a bit of a turning point where 2 WRs went in the top 6 picks and WRs outnumbered RBs for the round as a whole. it also seems like people were more willing to take QBs high several years ago. did matt stafford really go #12 in 2012? jeez. 5 QBs in the first 13 picks that year...

I have nothing but good things to say about Berman. Unlike most of ESPN these days, he played it straight and stuck to the game. Very sad day for him and his family. He and his wife were preparing to enter their golden years together, terrible to see it torn away in an instant. Life is precious and fragile, this is a sad reminder of that fact.