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People said the same things about Cordarrelle Patterson. He played 40% of snaps his rookie year and managed to get 9 touchdowns (4 receiving, 3 rushing, 2 return). Patterson ended up with an MFL adp of 40 in his sophomore year. People talked about his immense natural talents and how offensive guru Norv Turner was going to use Patterson in a million different ways to get the ball in his hands. History has not been kind to players who aren't traditional receivers but are labeled "playmakers". They might take the league by surprise one year but have trouble maintaining a high level when teams game plan for them. I'll still likely be drafting him because of his high ceiling but I'm not at all confident about the pick.

Tyreek Hill only played 40% of offensive snaps last year and yet managed 6 receiving touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns in addition to 3 return touchdowns. Dude was electric. He has an overall adp of 43 this year which puts him as the 23rd highest wide receiver. Andy Reid has said he'll be their Z receiver. My guess is his time at the Z will be limited and they'll line him up at different spots on the field to be unpredictable and to create mismatches. He'll probably even line up in the backfield a fair amount. Few gadget players who show promise do end up becoming elite. Will Tyreek be able to ascend to WR1 status this year with opposing defenses surely focusing on him?

good post as i def fell victim to the patterson trap his 2nd year and overdrafted ill def still draft him this year at the right price....or if im feeling really good about what ive done up to that point i might even be willing to go a bit early.....but its def not something id feel totally confident about

With the depth of players available in fantasy drafts that I'm comfortable starting ever increasing, I think this is less true than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Wide receiver and tight end are way deeper nowadays with teams passing so much and there are even a few more fantasy starter quality running backs available since fewer workhorse running backs means more NFL teams have rbbcs with 2 running backs putting up fantasy starter quality numbers. So players drafted in rounds 10-12 are now fantasy quality starters whereas 10 or 20 years ago this wasn't true. With the replacement player inserted for the suspended player being much higher quality means that this strategy hurts far less than in previous years. For example, if I draft Doug Martin as my 3rd running back, having him on the bench for the first three weeks means I have to start my 4th receiver instead. Randall Cobb, Corey Coleman, Cameron Meredith, and Breshad Perriman all have an adp between the 37th and 48th highest for a receiver putting them as 4th receivers on fantasy teams. Having quality players on the bench is a nice luxury that makes drafting suspended players a much less risky proposition.

Isn't this around the time of the year when the "best shape of his life" news starts picking up also?

I was also told there would be no conclusions...