LooGie

Good grief, that was an a$$ whuppin..for both me and JAX.

So, its beloved Thursday Night Football again. And once again, the schedule makers at NFL screwed themselves out of a game that anyone cares about. Well, I care a little. See, coming into this week, I'm finally above .500 ATS on Thursdays. in fact, I'd be 1.000 were it not my drunken, turkey induced stupidity that bubbled forth and found it's way into my thanksgiving picks. I could make a case that Thanksgiving doesn't count towards TNF, and thus be batting a respectable 4-0 on Thursday Night Football, but I won't do that. Mostly because you wouldn't let me. Also, I'm too lazy to argue the point. I'll take my 3 little losses on Thanksgiving. I'll blame the cheap booze while doing it..but I'll do it. that puts my TNF* (yup, I'll still asterick it though. It's my thread. Shut up) record at 4-3 ATS. Tonight, we got the interim coached, and complete terrible Jaguars coming to the amazingly mediocre Atlanta Falcons. I called a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week for the Falcons, and i was nearly correct. Were it not for the fact that the Panthers defense is the best aspect of any opponents team, I would've been right. At any rate, the Falcons are still in the playoff hunt, but that's never stopped them from folding like a lawn chair before. I dont know why it would now. The Jags offense are a special kind of awful though. Nearly as awful as the Colts offense..and the Colts defense...and/or the Colts special teams. The jags defense though is pretty good..nasty even. In a good way. Not in a Loogie's pr0n collection sorta "nasty good" way, either. Just flat out, good. Both teams are in the same boat this week. Short week, and nice wins over terrible NFC South teams. the fact that Atlanta is favored by 2 TDs is almost laughable to me . Hell, with the re-ignition of the Jags "give-a-damn" after Del Rio's firing, I wouldn't be surprised if Jax outright wins. I can't pull the trigger on that, but I sure as hell ain't giving the Falcons 14 points. Jax averages 15 ppg and ATL 23. That means ATL needs to score at least 30 points against JAX defense..or count on their defense to hold JAX to 9 points. Granted, holding Jax to 9 points is probably easier than just about anything else in this world, including ex girlfriends, I still can't rely on ATL outscoring JAX by that much, considering they only managed to put up 10 points against an only slightly better HOU defense. JAX 16 ATL 23 Take the points. note: Every part of me wants to cash in the +700 ML bet on the Jags. I couuld very easily see JAX 21, ATL 20. I very nearly called the upset here, but I figured I need to have a reason and stats to back up my upsets, otherwise I'm like majority of the upset pickers here, just flapping gums. At least when I predicted the TNF Seattle upset, I had trap game stats to back it up. On this one I got nothing, but you can bet I'll have a nice $10 on the JAGS ML JUST in case. RESULT: A BIG FAT LOOGIE LOSS ATL 41, JAX 14

I ended up missing the whole game...not on purpose either. i was actually going to watch it, but got held up. I'll happily come back to a mark in the win column though! Except i did lose the ov/un, but luckily i didn't bet that.

also, what do you think about the TB JAX move? loss?

I totally agree. If you can't motivate your team, with or without who I now consider to be the greatest QB of all time (considering) you need to get pink slip.

No i know, and next year, I'll be here before there. Its just that once I went away from FF, i just figured my time here was done. Not sure what I was thinking. this is still the best football community around. edit: and i dont have a membership anymore.

Nobody got nothin?

Loogies 2011/2011 MNF record: ATS RECORD on MNF: 12-2 Less important records: OV/UN RECORD on MNF: 10-4 SU RECORD on MNF: 13-1 ME vs GIRL SCOUT COOKIE SALESGIRLS: 0-4-1. (I pushed once, because one of the checks I wrote bounced. Out of shame, I can't call that one a win, but it certainly wasn't a loss.) I've had some bad Sundays this year, but I'm doing pretty damn good on MNF predictions. STL RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9) This is shaping up to be one of the harder MNF games this year for me to predict. I usually give divisional games a lot of extra attention, and lean away from a blowout, but nothing about the crappy Rams gives me reason to believe they can score even 10 points against Seattle. The Rams are so bad it's actually insulting. I'm offended by them. Not just offended, but HIGHLY offended. They're the equivalent of someone spitting at my children, in NFL team format. They've gone full retard. There's a lot of ATS trends you can look at, but I'm not sure any of those stats mean anything. For example: 1. RAMS have had 4 games this year where they were double digit underdogs (all 4 were +14), and lost 3 of them. The 4th was when they actually beat the Saints. In fact: 2. STL has only covered 2 spreads this year, and those 2 were when they actually won. They have yet to cover a spread while losing. 3. Rams are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC West. 4. Seahawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC West. The list goes on and on: * Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. * Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC. * Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. * Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. * Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. * Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. * Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. * Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. * Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf. * Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. But even with all the trends points towards the Seahwaks, I think to figure this game out you have to look at the points each team scores on average. Seattle averages 20.5 points at home, but gives up an average 21.3 at home. The Rams average a downright funny 8.6 points per game, and give up an average of 23.83 while on the road. The Rams defense actually isn't too bad. They're pretty good at causing Negative Pass Plays (sacks, ints), and even holding QBs to a low passing averages (6.19 YPA). But it's tough to win games, or even cover 9 point spreads when you don't score points…and the Ram, DO NOT score points. Lol, 8.6 points per game on the road. Across the board they're only at 11 ppg. That's damn funny people. However, based on averages, 20 ppg from SEA vs 11 ppg from STL gives us NO wiggle room. That's -9 right there. Just a FG from STL is good enough to cover. The question is, will SEA score 31 points like they did against PHI, or score 12 points, like they did home against Cincy. Or will they score 24, like they did the first time they played STL. In that game, STL only scored 7, and STL was home. There's a bunch of questions, and a bunch of ifs in this divisional game. But the trends point to STL sucking donkey arse, and SEA putting up at least 20 at home. I think based on that, I have to assume SEA can and will put 24 on the board, and STL stays true to form and puts up a whopping 9. Give em an extra FG because it's a divisional game. STL 12 SEA 24 That's the under (37) for those keeping tabs. RESULT: A LOOGIE WIN! SEA 30, STL 13. MNF record soards to 13-2 My MNF OV/UN record drops to 10-5 though. Stupid Rams, earning 13 points.

heres another example, I picked DEN to win by 4. At the time, the spread was -3.5. Before the game started, I saw that the line had moved to DEN -3. I made my weekly picks, showing that I choose DEN by 4. they won by 3. that means that was a loss. I'm now 0-1 at picking ATS winners. but since the line moved to -3, and I'm ok with adjusting my analysis after the fact, and resubmitting the new spread, since they won by 3, that would mean I pushed. that means my record isn't 0-1, it's now 0-0-1. In other words, if I can adjust JUST the spread after the fact, then i could do it to show all spreads that pushed, and move the losses to pushes, without changing one thing in my analysis, except the spread. I think that's cheating.

Here's some reasons why I think it's ok. 1. If I decide to bet with them, and I base my picks off just their margin of victory, the spread wouldn't matter. In other words, I see that JAX will lose by 2, according to them. i walk into the Casino, see that the line is JAX +3, and I see that based on their picks, JAX will cover, and i go for it. 2. That's probably the correct way to bet, instead of going "oh, they pick TB to win", I go "oh, TB by 2. As the line moves, it doesn't change that TB was picked to win by 2. I just adjust by bet based on the moving line. Here's some reasons why I have issues with this: 1. What if the line moved in the opposite direction? What if it was JAX -3. Their pick of TB by 2 would be a loser. of course if the line didn't move at all and stayed -0, that pick is still a loser, since JAX won by 27 points. 2. what if the line moved to JAX -27. (i know it wouldn't, but hear me out) If the line moved to JAX -27, i would've pushed. My pushing means their pick goes from a loser, to a push. That's padding their stats isn't it?

So I have a premium membership at a site. They have a truly remarkable record at picking winners. Of course every week that i bet with them, they lose their a$$. I've gone through and kept records of their picks, and i can tell you, they don't change their picks, they keep everything as honest as one could hope for. Until this week. By my records, they suffered their worst week ever with a pitiful 3-10-1. By their records they had an equally pitiful 4-9-1. Here's what happened. When they made their picks, TB/JAX had no line. They picked TB to win by 2 points. Well later in the week, the spread moved to TB -3. They are known to constantly be updating and re-evaluating their analysis of every game, and on Sunday morning, before the game, they adjusted their analysis, to just show the line now at TB -3. They did not move their picks. By choosing JAX to lose by 2 points with no spread, did they iin essence pick JAX to cover -3? the score ended up a drubbing JAX 41, TB 14. In other words, if the spread stayed -0, or even -1, They would've lost. but because the spread moved to -3, and they picked JAX to lose by 2, did they predict them to cover, or did they pad their stats with a loophole? I'll give more examples in the following reply. I dont want to make this an overly long first post, as I really want some good opinions on this. I'm torn.

Good call! that game was incredible. I hate how this Tebow phenom is turning it into a question of "god" and all that. it actually makes me sick to my stomache that such a topic could even be breached. it's so stupid. Good call across the board on your part though. Going forward, when I make my picks on friday, maybe you could chime in early so I can put in a parlay based on your picks. I think I could make some money riding your coattails mixed with my own! what a call. I'm usually pretty good at predicting trap games, and such, but you flat out nailed it. i wouldn't say SF came out flat, it was just a tough game, as most divisional games are. That "challenged" FG fake didn't help anything, as ARI would've lost the challenge and at least a timeout, but since the reply equipment was broke, they didn't evne lose the timeout, the FG was missed, and then ARI opened up with a long TD. Pretty sucky day for any SF fans. Good job man. I'm really impressed with that PHI call. If I spent a little bit more time on the SF, ARI game I could've called that one, but PHI? not in a thousand years. I figured with Vick back he was going to do that pout thing he does, where he passively gets hurt..again or whatever. Great call on your part. Great game. I fell asleep and missed the last 10 minutes..and my 8 year old is a Cincy fan, so he was mad at me. He kicked me to wake me up when they lost

this whole thread is "first world problems"

Bold team is ATS winner. Bottom is home team. NO (-4) 26 TEN 23 Don’t expect a runaway here. NO loves to keep it close on the road, and even throws a win to really bad teams now and again. Also, TEN is not a really bad team. They’re actually almost good. I’m calling an upset…at least by way of the spread. RESULT: Loogie Loss: NO 22, TEN 17. ATS 0-1, SU 1-0 OAK 21 GB (-11) 31 GB averages 35 points at home, but more importantly has defeated opponents by 11 points or more 5 times this season. They’ve covered double digit spreads 3 times, and lost 3 times. They’ve only lost 4 times this year ATS, and only one of those was at home, where they beat TB by 9 points. That spread was 14. I’m not really sure what any of this means. Some of it points to GB not covering 11 points. Some of it points to them covering. Really, it comes down, in my mind, Carson is capable of exploiting some of GBs faults at defense, and OAK is no slouch. I don’t think GB will put up 35 points at home this week, so the question is, can OAK put up 23 or so points. Well, they average close to that… This is a tough one. Take the points. RESULT: Loogie Loss: OAK 16, GB 46. ATS 0-2, SU 2-0 IND 10 BAL (-16) 30 Bal loves to play chitty against chitty teams. But that’s usually on the road. Flacco is below-average and lives below the “meh” line. No way BAL doesn’t score 28 points in this one, and if Indy is capable of scoring 12 points against Bal, I’d eat my hat. By the way, Baltimore averages 29.77 points at home, and that includes their worst showing of 16 points against SF. The Ravens average giving up almost 16 points at home, to teams that average over 20 points a game..not 14 ppg, like the Colts. RESULT: Loogie Loss: BAL 24, IND 10. ATS 0-3, SU 3-0 ATL (-3) 24 CAR 26 Probably best to just call this a homer pick, but I swear I'm basing it on ATL usually sucking at years end, and Carolina averaging hefty points in just about every game. RESULT: Loogie Loss: ATL 31, CAR 23. ATS 0-4, SU 3-1 HOU 14 CIN (-3) 12 Look for Dalton to have a rough day against the best defense in the NFL. Cincy is equipped to deal with the now “run first” Texans and give Yates a tough day, but I really don’t see how Cincy can pull this one out. RESULT: Loogie Win: HOU 20, CIN 19. ATS 1-4, SU 4-1 KC 14 NYJ (-9) 24 Little nugget: KC has been outscored by AFC East teams this year by a brain melting 106-13. In just 3 games.!The best part of KC this year is it’s above mediocre defense. Jets are home, and like always it really comes down to play at the QB position. Sanchez can make you punch yourself in the face, but the Jets are 5th in points scored this season with 24. The Chiefs? Lets just say I didn’t feel like figuring out what rank they are, but they average 13.5 ppg. Lets just play the averages, and forget that the Jets need this win, and KC couldn’t give a fat rats ass. RESULT: Loogie Win: NYJ 37, KC 10. ATS 2-4, SU 5-1 MIN 17 DET (-7) 23 Bottom line is a divisional game, against the Vikings. The Vikes defense is the gift that keeps on giving. They give points to any team with any quarterback. In the Lions past 5 games, they’ve had only 2 games with over 20 points. Those 2 were 45 (Den) & 49 (Car) against teams with terribad defenses. Divion rivals, and both teams are too inconsistent against divisional teams this year for me to put any money on this one, but for some reason, I’m leaning towards Min, and considered calling for an upset. RESULT: Loogie Win: DET 34, MIN 28. ATS 3-4, SU 6-1 NE (-7.5) 34 WAS 20 Even I could rack up yards and points against NE pass defense, but the short and sweet is NE has scored more than 30 points for 4 straight weeks. WAS isn’t slowing that down, and while Rex will probably have the best day of his season, it wont come close to New England’s “auto win” setting. RESULT: Loogie Loss: NE 34, WAS 27. ATS 3-5, SU 7-1 SF (-3.5) 20 ARI 13 I’m surprised the spread is only -3.5 for SF. Those powers that be must know something we don’t. Divisional games, as I’m always ranting about tend to throw a monkey wrench or 2, and SF’s offensive line flat out sucks. Arizona plays hard at home, according to Dallas, but only 3.5 points means you take SF confidently. I was hoping to pull an upset special here, but I need at least +7 to do that. RESULT: Loogie Loss: ARI 21, SF 19. ATS 3-6, SU 7-2 BUF 20 SD (-6.5) 26 The public still thinks SD is a good team, and (rightfully so) sees Buffalo as a bad team. It’s December though, and Rivers does his thing in December. Can he do it for a win of more than 7 points…I don’t know, but can you count on Buffalo for anything? I think you can in this one. RESULT: Loogie Loss: SD 37, BUF 10 ATS 3-7, SU 8-2 TB (-3) 10 JAX 12 Right…where do I start. Eh screw it. You’re not going to read it anyway. They both suck like Tijuana crack whores. I could see a game with 5 total points though. That would be cool. No…no it wouldn’t. RESULT: Loogie Win: JAX 41, TB 14 ATS 4-7, SU 9-2 PHI 20 MIA (-3) 26 Short and sweet, MIA is hot as hell, and PHI has checked out for the year. RESULT: Loogie Loss: PHI 26, MIA 10 ATS 4-8, SU 9-3 CHI 16 DEN (-3) 20 Tebow shut everyone up last week. Good for him. Bad for Chicago. I’m losing interest in these games as I go. Can you tell? RESULT: Loogie PUSH*: DEN 13, CHI 10 ATS 4-8-1, SU 10-3 NYG 30 DAL (-3.5) 27 Stats very slightly point to DAL, but one little thing, Romo in December. I’ll take Eli. RESULT: Loogie Win: NYG 37, DAL 34 ATS 5-8-1, SU 11-3 Results: Another bad week for Loogie. All in all it was a tough week to predict ATS winners. SU RECORD FOR WEEK 14 (Not counting Thurs or MNF): 11-3 ATS RECORD FOR WEEK 14 (Not counting Thurs or MNF): 5-8-1* *Disclaimer: When I made my picks, TB & JAX had no line. By the end of Friday the line was TB -3. I adjusted the spread, but kept my pick the same. The spread wouldn't have changed my record, as I had JAX (the underdog) regardless of the spread. But on the same note, the CHI/DEN spread was DEN -3.5. That spread moved to -3. That would give me a push, even though I picked DEN to win by 4. So take that how you want it. I just want to give you all the facts. No matter what, i sucked it up.

that's a helluva compliment. Every newbie is automatically NTOTY...especially to swammi