BrooklynCrew

Can't say I follow how there's 15 names I'd rather have than him starting this week... there's about 10 on the Huddle list that there's no way I start over him, virtually ever, and definitely not this week... Indy can score... and their D is bad. I don't see a ton of Gore ever, given what Gore is now. We shall see, but I'm in the 'major disagreement' camp with that ranking... not really alone either, scanning just about everywhere else on these here interwebs... just wondering I guess.

Hmm... Huddle ranks Indy Def as #30 fantasy option this week.... Not sure how to reconcile those two positions... The very low CK rank lept off the page to me.... Given the public beatdown they just took, coming back home.. I see Indy as a bad defense... a big day from CK seems likely.

18th ranked QB this week? Does Indy have a defense that I'm not aware of?

Shon Greene doesn't really qualify for matchlight status... but this late season outburst is really helping if you stuck with him.

This is a good place for constantly updated Giants info. Guy's a beat writer: http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/beat_wr...blog/index.html He says Nicks was on the bike watching practice today... yesterday he didn't suit up... not much to draw from this yet. I think he will play, but you can check in here for practice reports tomorrow and Saturday

He's not technically a rookie, but Hardesty is lining up to be the main back in CLE. I don't believe anything they're saying about bringing Hillis back for any kind of real money. I don't believe a word of that. Whether you think Hardesty can make a real impact with all the touches, who knows, we've hardly seen enough yet... but in terms of guys who might have the opportunity, I put him high on the list next to Thomas.

It depends on your format. He could easily be the feature back next season. I drafted him in a 12 team dynasty league with my 14th round pick this year. I can keep him for a 12th round pick next year. He's a great stash if you're playing a keeper or have bench depth. He's still only looking at the lesser part of a time share unless Hillis gets hurt or implodes over this contract issue.

I know... I get the relative value of QB's and all... but this number above "80% of the top 10rbs are drafted in rounds 3-4" is where I think the pitfall is. I think that is changing a LOT. I don't believe that stat is true at all anymore. I think half the top 10 rb's are often drafted in the mid rounds now - 4-8ish... with so many committees and the uptick in passing... Personally, I don't think I've ever taken a qb in round 1... it burns. "Can't do it". But I'm seeing more and more guys having success by mixing in early top WR's and a top 3-4 QB over the first 4 rounds and then taking a slew of mid round RB's and striking gold on just one of them. This was not really a viable option 10 years ago because you HAD to have 2 of the top ball carriers who were all off the board by middle of round 3. Jumbo's article last week speaks to some of this discussion: http://www.thehuddle.com/x11/season/w04/jum.php I think it's an interesting discussion... at least in terms that the NFL is changing, which probably means that strategies for Fantasy Football should be changing as well.

I'm not missing that point. I'm saying it's wrong. Drafts are changing and top qb's are going earlier. It's not that easy to get a top qb late in the draft anymore. I see people taking qb's earlier and earlier in my leagues, because of all the reasons cited. There are more busts early among rb's than ever before. The theory that it's safer going RB early and QB late is not true. I'm not missing that point, I think it's false and based on theories from 10 years ago.

Yeah, I took quick look, but it's all manual entry = pass My pda can load my league websites pretty well now...

What you are not factoring is that HALF of the top 10 rb's year over year are NOT drafted in the first two rounds and are not in the preliminary season picks to be top 10 rb's. They actually come from later rounds because of that higher turnover I noted earlier. That means there are far more RB busts in those picks than QB's. So this old notion that it's safer to draft RB's early is simply not true anymore. The stats do not bear that out. If you load up on lots of rb's early, yes, you are more likely to hit a productive one, and you are also more likely to hit a bust.

This is false. The data over the last 7 years shows that QB's are FAR FAR more likely to hit their preseason top 10 status than RB's. There is far more fluctuation in the top 10 rb's than top 10 qb's year over year. It's not even close over the better part of the last decade... especially with the uptick in RBBC's around the league. 10 years ago this was not the case. Things have changed. The top 10 wr's are also a bit more reliable than top 10 rb's, but they fluctuate more than qb's, which of late have been far more stable to hit preseason expectations. This is not an argument for/against the early qb, but the reality is that QB's hit their preseason expectations far more frequently than rbs or wr's. RB variance has grown dramatically over the last decade. Now some people will simply respond "this is exactly why I need to hoard them and make sure I get a good one"... You can argue either way. If I have a top 5 pick I'm getting one of the lone backfield RB's who tend to produce... but the 'wait on rb's' approach is far more viable than it used to be... sure there is lots of luck involved, but that's true for anybody. There just happens to be a LOT more rb's getting touches than ever before. This is reality.

Or refer to this discussion: rb-rb drafting

It really helps to know your league mates on this question. I've been playing several years with my crowd, so I do know tendencies. In my 12 team keeper with a $250 cap, i can see Starks going for anywhere from 30-75$ ... especially for a couple teams with RB needs. A bigger bid wouldn't surprise me. My other leagues won't see bids over $30 (I don't think) on anybody currently available. Kicker's and D's will go for 1-5$ depending on need. But again, knowing your league tendencies really helps. This first time around is a guessing game for your whole league. Unless there's a big name on your wire, I'd guess the bids are low at first to feel out what people are willing to pay. In one of my leagues, I have a couple 'early big spenders'... and several other 'hoarders', who hang onto their cash for late season shots. I know at least 2 owners who won't bid much of anything in the first 4 games. I tend to buy early and grab somebody before they skyrocket in price - this is not an exact science.

All 3 of my leagues are blind bidding now (traditional waivers seems to be going away)... in one league, somebody dropped Starks (no idea why) in the first round of pickups before week 1, so he will be the big waiver spend there. Not sure how much he goes for, but it will be high. The other leagues there doesn't seem to be a 'big' name... other than Cam Newton in a long term keeper format...

What are people's strategies around FAAB spending? Do you jump on guys with new roles or hot starts and hope to mine that diamond in the rough? Or do you hold tight with your draft and wait for late season position changes? I tend to spend early and shore up holes right away, hoping to mine gold. Last year in one of my leagues, a guy spent his entire season's $ on Vick in week 3. He won the league.

Actually, most of the studies I've read recently is that the early 'many rbs' approach is far riskier... because a much higher percentage of 'top 20' rb's are busts than top 10 qb's or top 10 wr's even. I guess that's the point. RB - RB over the recent years is MORE risky. It may just feel safer cuz that's the trend historically.

Well that's the thing, if I'm waiting on RB's, I'm definitely getting a top 6 qb in the first 3 rounds this year.

I think this is a great strategy this year... And I guess my point is that I don't think "Gore" is safe at all. In fact, I can put like 20 or so RB's in tier 2 and have no idea who scores the most points. On the other hand, I think Brees or Rivers is pretty safe early... comparably.

I would add that if you have a shot at the top 4-5 solo RB's who get 200+ touches, it's wise to take one, since there aren't many of them... but outside of those draft spots, I think it's ok to be a lot more flexible than in the past when you really needed to collect a lot of rb's early.

This is a yearly article from DMD... and the general slant is you need 2 rb's in your first 3 picks to succeed (in some fashion). I no longer agree as I think football (and hence fantasy football) is changing from 10 years ago... The rbbc and emphasis on the passing game means you can find more rb value later in your drafts than ever before. I would argue that the winners in recent years (in my leagues) avoid 2 rb's in the first 3 rounds and hope to strike rb gold later in tandem with their strong qb/wr slants... I want a top tier qb/wr combo this year more than ever. Just my thoughts though, I know 2 rb's early is a fairly prevalent mindset.

I know The Huddle is a bit old-school in terms of advice and 'get yur rb's early' etc... I no longer subscribe to this theory entirely... depending on the season of course. I find a lot less turnover in the top 6 qb's year to year (others have done this math, but it's true). The turnover in the top 20 rb's and wr's is far more extreme. That is to say, at the end of the year, you will find nearly half the top 20 rb's and wr's were not drafted as the top 20 rb's and wr's... while the top 10 qb's are pretty close to the actual rankings in most seasons... generally speaking with exceptions. I see the winners of my leagues as the guys who get the big qb coupled with a big wr or rb... and then get lucky in the mid-late draft by striking gold (or mining the wire). The duo RB anchor teams haven't won many championships in my leagues over the last 3-5 seasons... Do people find they have strayed from 'rb-rb' more in recent years?

Just caught this and got TobyG into my lineup... I need 49 yards from that spot to make the finals. Holding my breath now.

Not watching... is Greg Jennings even getting targeted? I need SOMETHING from him tonight and this is killing me.

Everything is pointing to Nicks playing now... we'll see.