Grits and Shins Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 In a league where you can start 2 or 3 RBs, if all TDs are worth 6 points how early do you take Manning, Culpepper, McNabb or Bulger in a 12 team redrafter performance league? If you use DMDs projections you see a pretty good drop off between Manning and Culpepper, a smaller drop off between Culpepper and McNabb, a smaller drop off between McNabb and Bulger ... then a more significant drop off between Bulger and Favre. The drop off in RBs is a bit more severe and everybody will be starting more of them. So when do you take Manning? In the mocks it looked like the teams that took Manning played catch up the rest of the draft. DMD's QB projections adjusted for 6 point TDs (with yardage points and negative points for interceptions): Manning, Peyton 493 Culpepper, Daunte 425 McNabb, Donovan 392 Bulger, Marc 384.5Favre, Brett 355 Hasselbeck, Matt 347 Green, Trent 345 Brooks, Aaron 341 Palmer, Carson 340.5Brady, Tom 338 Plummer, Jake 337 Brees, Drew 334 Vick, Michael 329 Leftwich, Byron 322 Collins, Kerry 319 Carr, David 310 Griese, Brian 304 DMD's RB projections: Tomlinson, Ladainian 351.5James, Edgerrin 307 Holmes, Priest 286.5Alexander, Shaun 286 Davis, Domanick 281 McGahee, Willis 274.5Portis, Clinton 269 McAllister, Deuce 262 Dillon, Corey 248 Barber, Tiki 241 Jones, Kevin 236 Lewis, Jamal 234 Jones, Julius 229.5Westbrook, Brian 225.5Johnson, Rudi 221.5Green, Ahman 221 Martin, Curtis 219 Jordan, Lamont 215 Jackson, Steven 211 Bell, Tatum 202.5Benson, Cedric 198 Arrington, J.J. 197.5Brown, Chris 197 Williams, Carnell 196 Dunn, Warrick 195.5Brown, Ronnie 190.5Staley, Duce 173 Foster, De'shaun 152 Barlow, Kevan 143 Toefield, Labrandon 135 Bennett, Michael 134.5Faulk, Marshall 125 Johnson, Larry 121.5Suggs, Lee 110.5Bettis, Jerome 103.5Buckhalter, Correll 100 Duckett, T.J. 100 Droughns, Reuben 99.5 Pittman, Michael 85.5 Jones, Thomas 82.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 IMHO, if you look at an 8 round draft progression, taking Manning earlier than the 6th pick can be damaging to a team. Culpepper should not figure as prominantly into people's draft plans this year. A quick analysis of his performance in games Moss didn't play over last year shows a HUGH dropoff in performance. People taking him in the second round will be disappointed. I might take him in the 4th round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Wrong forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Wrong forum. 917450[/snapback] Perhaps you should try and cast Magic Missile on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 9, 2005 Author Share Posted August 9, 2005 (edited) Wrong forum. 917450[/snapback] Really? How many mock drafts have we had in this forum? How many CCS posts are there? Other posts in the same vein: Drew Carter-possible sleeper D/ST QB Value, Is Manning really a #1 Looking for Enlightenment OK I found a reason to Draft Manning #1 Offline Drafting, Need some help Any News on When "RHino" spreadsheet out? And that's just on the first page. Edited August 9, 2005 by Grits and Shins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Yeah, and they're all in the wrong forum too. Two wrongs don't make a right. 3 lefts do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dutch Oven Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Slap fight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 9, 2005 Author Share Posted August 9, 2005 Yeah, and they're all in the wrong forum too. Two wrongs don't make a right. 3 lefts do. 917470[/snapback] So perhaps you should go to all the CCS, mock drafts and other posts not in the correct forum and inform them of their error of their ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Actually, to answer your question, from what I've seen, Nick makes a good point. If you take him too early, it becomes very hard to recover. Granted you'll have Manning, but will really take a hit at RB and WR. I wouldn't take him before 7th or 8th. I wouldn't take another QB until the 4th round. McNabb because of the Owens issues, CPep without Moss, they both drop off from last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bulger outperform CPep and McNabb, and Bulger you can grab even later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 So perhaps you should go to all the CCS, mock drafts and other posts not in the correct forum and inform them of their error of their ways. 917474[/snapback] Nah, it's much for fun to bust your balls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Really? How many mock drafts have we had in this forum? How many CCS posts are there? Other posts in the same vein: Drew Carter-possible sleeper D/ST QB Value, Is Manning really a #1 Looking for Enlightenment OK I found a reason to Draft Manning #1 Offline Drafting, Need some help Any News on When "RHino" spreadsheet out? And that's just on the first page. 917469[/snapback] Did someone slap a padlock on yer nuts while you were napping? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bustedflush16 Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 On the original topic, in my 10 team league we also have two qbs start every week and six pt tds. From most mocks I've looked at and participated in, taking Manning early has not been crippling to the draft. In one recent mock, picking first and taking Manning, I was still able to get Portis and Holt with my next to picks. Having those three guys in the fold would allow me to draft best player available the rest of the way. In my opinion, it is difficult to win if your first 1st round pick flops or underperforms. Manning won't throw 49 tds, but 35 seems likely and their is upside from there. His solid points every week are a strong base to go from. In my league if you get a 50 pt game from any player you are probably going to win the week. There is a better chance of Manning have multiple 50 pt games then say Tomlinson. The combination of Manning in the first round and an intelligent, prepared drafter after that, looks like a playoff team to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 On the original topic, in my 10 team league we also have two qbs start every week and six pt tds. From most mocks I've looked at and participated in, taking Manning early has not been crippling to the draft. In one recent mock, picking first and taking Manning, I was still able to get Portis and Holt with my next to picks. Having those three guys in the fold would allow me to draft best player available the rest of the way. In my opinion, it is difficult to win if your first 1st round pick flops or underperforms. Manning won't throw 49 tds, but 35 seems likely and their is upside from there. His solid points every week are a strong base to go from. In my league if you get a 50 pt game from any player you are probably going to win the week. There is a better chance of Manning have multiple 50 pt games then say Tomlinson. The combination of Manning in the first round and an intelligent, prepared drafter after that, looks like a playoff team to me. 917498[/snapback] A 10 team league is a TOTALLY different animal. There's A LOT more talent to go around. My comments were directed at 12 team leagues and higher. Just for the record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantasy Jesus Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 I'm currently drafting in a 12 team redraft league. I had the 7th pick and I took Manning. In this league TD passes are only worth 4 pts but at the time I couldn't pass up on Manning at 7. If I had to do it over again I don't think I'd take him at 7 again. It forces you to reach for RB's in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. And then after you're done reaching for those RB's you'll then be forced to reach for WR's in the 5th and 6th rounds. Here's what my draft looks like so far . . . 1.07 Manning 2.06 CMart - I was lucky he made it ot me 3.07 Michael Bennett - A serious reach here but there was not much else left on the board. 4.06 Fred Taylor - another reach 5.07 Hines Ward - fell in the draft because of his holdout. While I was reaching for questionable RB's everyone else in the draft took solid WR's. 6.06 Jeremy Shockey 7.07 Eddie Kennison Taking Manning in the first has affected my entire draft. Reaching for RB's and then reaching for WR's. BTW . . . Culpepper wasn't drafted until 3.03. Currently in the 7th round and 3 teams don't have QB's yet. Brees, Delhomme, Plummer, Brooks, Vick and many more are ALL still available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedroz13 Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Actually, to answer your question, from what I've seen, Nick makes a good point. If you take him too early, it becomes very hard to recover. Granted you'll have Manning, but will really take a hit at RB and WR. 917476[/snapback] I don't agree in regards to Manning and CPEP. You do have to hope for a solid RB in later rounds, but every year there are WR's found late in drafts that play much bigger than where they were drafted. This goes for RBs too, and every year there are some 'TOP' RBs that don't perform at that level, some examples from last year are Ahman, Deuce M., and Jamal. When you have Manning and CPEP, these are can't miss guys (or at least have proven to be the last few years). I wouldn't be shocked to see Manning and Daunte go by #14 or so in drafts. Manning obviously much earlier...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 9, 2005 Author Share Posted August 9, 2005 Fantasy Jesus ... that is exactly my question ... at what point in the draft can you take Manning and not be in catch up mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 I don't agree in regards to Manning and CPEP. You do have to hope for a solid RB in later rounds, but every year there are WR's found late in drafts that play much bigger than where they were drafted. This goes for RBs too, and every year there are some 'TOP' RBs that don't perform at that level, some examples from last year are Ahman, Deuce M., and Jamal. When you have Manning and CPEP, these are can't miss guys (or at least have proven to be the last few years). I wouldn't be shocked to see Manning and Daunte go by #14 or so in drafts. Manning obviously much earlier...... 917506[/snapback] Only thing you're missing is that CPep is no longer the threat he was when Moss was there. If you think he's going to put up the same numbes throwing to Burleson and Taylor, you're kidding yourself. Ahman Green had 1438 yards in 15 games. Not bad. Jamal Lewis had 1022 yards in 12 games. Not bad. We all knew about the suspension, you can't hold that against his numbers. McAllister had 1302 yards and 10 TD's. Not bad either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Fantasy Jesus ... that is exactly my question ... at what point in the draft can you take Manning and not be in catch up mode. 917509[/snapback] Sorry not to provide more detail, but if you use the search function, I have already posted in detail on this topic several times. Individual drafts will vary, but the crux of the matter is that I have determined 6th as my earliest Manning selection in 12 team performance leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 9, 2005 Author Share Posted August 9, 2005 Yeah, and they're all in the wrong forum too. Two wrongs don't make a right. 3 lefts do. 917470[/snapback] Let's not forget these posts in the wrong forum: Edmund Fitzgerald Award Raiders Homer Needed ASAP Attention all 32 Homers members HAG Commissioners DirectTV's Superfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Let's not forget these posts in the wrong forum: Edmund Fitzgerald Award Raiders Homer Needed ASAP Attention all 32 Homers members HAG Commissioners DirectTV's Superfan 917524[/snapback] Let's not forget these posts in the wrong forum: Edmund Fitzgerald Award Raiders Homer Needed ASAP Attention all 32 Homers members HAG Commissioners DirectTV's Superfan 917527[/snapback] What a newbie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Good to see you've got some time on your hands Blitz. Nice detective work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantasy Jesus Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Fantasy Jesus ... that is exactly my question ... at what point in the draft can you take Manning and not be in catch up mode. 917509[/snapback] Hard to say Grits. The best chance you have of recovering is only if other teams also start taking QB's either late 1st rd or early 2nd. Unfortunately for me in the draft scenario I gave you CPepp did not go until 3.03. McNabb went at 4.04 Bulger went at 4.07 Trent Green went at 5.12 People are holding off on taking the Moss-less CPepp who is usually the 2nd QB taken in most drafts. So while you take Manning in the first other teams are taking all the stud RB's and stud WR's leaving yo with reaches. Does the dominance of Manning when compared to other QB's make up for the 2nd tier RB's you'll get later? In my example I gave you I was very happy to get Cmart in the 2nd. Hopefully either Bennet or Taylor at RB2 work out for me but I'm not too confident of that. Then I need my reach WR's to perform. IMO . . . take a stud RB in the first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 What a newbie. 917529[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 9, 2005 Share Posted August 9, 2005 Let's not forget these posts in the wrong forum: Edmund Fitzgerald Award Raiders Homer Needed ASAP Attention all 32 Homers members HAG Commissioners DirectTV's Superfan 917527[/snapback] Not too many Fantasy Advice questions in those threads though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 9, 2005 Author Share Posted August 9, 2005 Not too many Fantasy Advice questions in those threads though. 917538[/snapback] Exactly how is that relevant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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