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WHAT? an ending!


Kansas State 2000
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Yes, an amazing finish indeed. The endless post game hoopla about USC deciding to punch it in is yet another case of people not understanding percentages. The talking heads have just been going on and on about what a gutty call it was. Everyone seems to think that kicking the FG and going to OT would be the "conservative" of safe way to play it. Well, they must also agree that putting all your money on black is safer than putting it in the S+P 500.

 

If I may...

If you attempt the FG, that's not 100%. 95% perhaps, but especially in college with the wide hashmarks, it's not a complete given. So let's say 95%. That just gets you to OT where you can't expect to have anything better than 50/50. So your overall chances of winning are 48.5%

 

Given USC's great O-line, you've got to think that they had at least a 50% chance of punching it in from less than a yard out. Don't you?

 

Thus, it was the safer play.

 

People screw this up all the time.

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