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Top 10 for Next Season


jhusted
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What's up with everyone drinking the Rudi Johnson kool-aid?  I have him in my only dynasty league and he did really come on towards the end of the year AFTER Chris Henry was injured and stopped stealing a series here and there and every third down play.  In fact Henry's role seemed to be increasing before his injury.

 

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I'd agree - Rudi's value was at best RB2-level while Chris PERRY was healthy; it was only after Perry went down that his production skyrocketed.

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Based on?

 

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For one, Bettis is done; Staley probably fills his "big back" role, but it's one less mouth to feed in a crowded backfield.

 

Don't know that I'd lock him in at top ten but I'd find it hard to pass him up at pick 20 or so.

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What's up with everyone drinking the Rudi Johnson kool-aid?  I have him in my only dynasty league and he did really come on towards the end of the year AFTER Chris Henry was injured and stopped stealing a series here and there and every third down play.  In fact Henry's role seemed to be increasing before his injury.

 

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I assume you mean Chris Perry. In the 14 games he played in, Perry had just over 4 carries per game - not exactly stealing a series here and there. By comparison, LT's back-up Michael Turner and Alexander's back-up Mo Morris, also had about 4 carries per game. Yet no one is saying that LT's or SA's production was somehow inhibited by these players. I guess the big difference is that Perry also had 4 receptions per game, so you could say Perry got most of the third down (at least 3rd and long) chances.

 

Rudi was a fantasy stud down the stretch this year, and he's had three consecutive years of very very good fantasy numbers. I think he's solidly in the top 10 fantasy RBs and in the top 10 overall. If he could catch (and therefore didn't have to come out on third and long) he'd be a top 5 back, IMO.

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I assume you mean Chris Perry.  In the 14 games he played in, Perry had just over 4 carries per game - not exactly stealing a series here and there.  By comparison, LT's back-up Michael Turner and Alexander's back-up Mo Morris, also had about 4 carries per game.  Yet no one is saying that LT's or SA's production was somehow inhibited by these players. 

 

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This is a classic case of stats not telling the story. Not sure about LT, but I believe that SA sat out at least 3 full halves of football.

 

The Bengals kept talking about getting Perry more and more touches and they were doing that before his injury.

Edited by bushwacked
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The Bengals kept talking about getting Perry more and more touches and they were doing that before his injury.

 

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Chris Perry got hurt in Week 14, the Bengals 13th game of the season. In his first 6 games, Perry had 10 touches per game. In his last six games preceding the injury, Perry had 6 touches per game. That's not exactly getting more and more touches before his injury. In fact, since 6 is less than 10, Perry was actually getting fewer and fewer touches prior to his injury. :D

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I assume you mean Chris Perry.  In the 14 games he played in, Perry had just over 4 carries per game - not exactly stealing a series here and there.  By comparison, LT's back-up Michael Turner and Alexander's back-up Mo Morris, also had about 4 carries per game.  Yet no one is saying that LT's or SA's production was somehow inhibited by these players.  I guess the big difference is that Perry also had 4 receptions per game, so you could say Perry got most of the third down (at least 3rd and long) chances.
Yeah, that's 8 touches per game, which adds up. And over a 6 game stretch from weeks 5-12, he had a healthy run of 9 touches for 76 yds @ Jax, 15-73 and a td @ Ten, 8-44 @ Pitt, 9-43 and a td vs GB, 3-15 @ Bal, and 12-123 vs Indy.

 

Given that 30 of the 53 touches were receptions, it's certainly arguable as to the REAL impact it had on Rudi's numbers, but I'd say it's pretty clear that for a while he was a key part of the the Bengals' game plan - and when he's in, Rudi Johnson isn't. If you look at the game logs for Maurice Morris (who had 55 of his 76 touches come in either blowout wins or the last couple games when Sea was phoning it in) and Michael Turner (who had 33 of his 57 touches in blowout wins), you see plenty of weeks where they show goose eggs.

Rudi was a fantasy stud down the stretch this year, and he's had three consecutive years of very very good fantasy numbers.  I think he's solidly in the top 10 fantasy RBs and in the top 10 overall.  If he could catch (and therefore didn't have to come out on third and long) he'd be a top 5 back, IMO.

 

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Perhaps not coincidentally, Perry went out with an ankle sprain in the first quarter of Cinci's game against the Browns on 12-11 - from that point on, Rudi racked up 374 yds rushing, 3 tds, and caught 6 passes (which ain't much but it is a slight improvement over the 17 in his other 11 games).
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If the draft were today, as is:

 

LJ

SA

LT

Edge

Barber

CJohnson

Rudi

S Smith

 

Based on what we know will change between now and next year's draft:

 

LT

LJ

SA

Edge

CJohnson

Jordan

Rudi

Holt

 

SA will be signing a huge deal. The natural question will be "how does his effort look now that he's not playing for $50 million?". It's not much, but it's just enough to push LT (no questions) ahead of him. The questions about LJ's new coaching staff might push him below LT as well. LT has no questions at this point and is a clear #1 for me.

 

The rest is based on my league only - 8 man, and only have to start 1 RB with a RB/WR flex spot.

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Perhaps not coincidentally, Perry went out with an ankle sprain in the first quarter of Cinci's game against the Browns on 12-11 - from that point on, Rudi racked up 374 yds rushing, 3 tds, and caught 6 passes (which ain't much but it is a slight improvement over the 17 in his other 11 games).

 

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Rudi Johnson's production from a fantasy football perspective started to increase in late October and early November, and really escalated following the Bengals' bye week. In the three games following the bye on 11/14, Johnson averaged 100 yards and had 6 TDs against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis - three of the top 4 defenses in the AFC. Those performances were all prior to Perry getting injured.

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Chris Perry got hurt in Week 14, the Bengals 13th game of the season.  In his first 6 games, Perry had 10 touches per game.  In his last six games preceding the injury, Perry had 6 touches per game.  That's not exactly getting more and more touches before his injury.  In fact, since 6 is less than 10, Perry was actually getting fewer and fewer touches prior to his injury.  :D

 

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Okay stat guru :D, my point was that the Bengals intentionally made Henry an integral and purposeful part of the game plan, while Morris and Turner were largely playing in garbage time or due to injury and the comparison was hogwash. At the present time no fantasy owner should be concerned about Alexander or Tomilson losing significant time to their backups. The same cannot be said about Rudi.

 

Priority news from the huddle earlier this year:

 

Chris Perry - RB, Cincinnati Bengals 10/19/05

RB Chris Perry scored his first NFL touchdown against the Titans on Sunday and has developed into the perfect change-of-pace back to starter Rudi Johnson's hard-nosed style. For the season, Perry has carried the ball 32 times or 149 yards and has 27 catches for 185 yards.

 

Huddle Up: It was difficult to gauge Perry's potential in his rookie season in 2004 because he missed 14 games to injuries (pulled hamstring, sports hernia). However, it's becoming abundantly clear that he can become a fantasy stud if given the opportunity. But for now - and especially when the Bengals host the Steelers on Sunday - Perry may make a nice addition to a fantasy roster, but he probably won't provide fantasy-worthy production. Meanwhile, some Johnson owners may wish that Perry would find a way to miss 14 more games.

 

Chris Perry - RB, Cincinnati Bengals 09/21/05

RB Chris Perry is making the most of his opportunity as Cincinnati's change-of-pace back with 14 carries for 58 yards and nine catches for 70 yards in the Bengals' first two games. Perry has yet to score a TD, but he did have an 85-yard catch-and-run TD called back on Sunday due to a holding penalty.

 

Huddle Up: Perry is establishing himself as something more than an occasional alternative to starting RB Rudi Johnson. He's been isolated in the backfield with Johnson on the sideline a number of times, and he's also been playing the role of No. 3 wideout on occasion. Simply put, the Cincy coaching staff knows that the Bengals are a better team when Perry is on the field. Though he won't get enough consistent action to merit a starting spot in fantasy lineups, he may be considered in a pinch in deeper leagues and is an excellent grab-and-stash option for owners who have the roster flexibility.

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Chris Perry got hurt in Week 14, the Bengals 13th game of the season.  In his first 6 games, Perry had 10 touches per game.  In his last six games preceding the injury, Perry had 6 touches per game.  That's not exactly getting more and more touches before his injury.  In fact, since 6 is less than 10, Perry was actually getting fewer and fewer touches prior to his injury.  :D

 

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Maybe they noticed the same thing I just did - they were 3-3 when Perry was getting most of his work (through the game vs Indy), and after Rudi went back to being the horse, they went on a 4-1 run. :D

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I don't use Sportsline for fantasy advise, but I must say they summed it up quite nicely back in week 12 - two weeks prior to Perry's injury.

 

CBS Sportsline  11/28/05:

 

News: Bengals RB Chris Perry had three carries for zero yards and two receptions for two yards vs. Baltimore in Week 12.

 

Analysis: Four of his last five game have been pretty unproductive. Perry should sit until he begins to be a part of the offense again.

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Johnson, Rudi RB CIN	The Ninjas	21	10	9	9	9	15	8	8	18	0	21	25	23	25	26	10	0	0	237Perry, Chris RB CIN	Free Agent	6	9	3	4	9	14	6	11	3	0	14	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	84Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD	Angry Beavers	14	18	47	30	20	35	4	15	40	0	16	40	12	8	9	7	17	0	332Turner, Michael RB SD	Free Agent	1	1	2	5	0	5	0	0	2	0	11	0	10	1	18	0	0	0	56Alexander, Shaun RB SEA	Shock Troops	8	23	38	17	26	40	7	0	30	36	25	18	17	19	24	33	0	0	361Morris, Maurice RB SEA	Free Agent	1	1	1	0	0	17	0	0	5	0	2	0	4	3	3	5	0	0	42

 

Yeah, I'd have to say Perry had an impact on Rudi's early season. I would not have guessed this big an impact, but it's there.

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My top 10:

1. Larry Johnson

2. Larry Johnson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Larry Johnson

5. Larry Johnson

6. Larry Johnson

7. Larry Johnson

8. Larry Johnson

9. Larry Johnson

10. Larry Johnson

 

If he would have started all 16 games, he would have destroyed the TD record and would have had 2000+ rushing. If KC doesn't trade Priest, they are dumb.

If you don't draft Larry next year, you're dumb!

 

:D

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My top 10:

1. Larry Johnson

2. Larry Johnson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Larry Johnson

5. Larry Johnson

6. Larry Johnson

7. Larry Johnson

8. Larry Johnson

9. Larry Johnson

10. Larry Johnson

 

If he would have started all 16 games, he would have destroyed the TD record and would have had 2000+ rushing.  If KC doesn't trade Priest, they are dumb.

If you don't draft Larry next year, you're dumb!

 

:D

 

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Thanks for that unbiased opinion from a fantasy owner whose season was probably salvaged by a LJ, a KC offensive line, and an injury to Holmes. I'd rate LJ #3 at this point with a good probability to move up to #1.

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My top 10:

1. Larry Johnson

2. Larry Johnson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Larry Johnson

5. Larry Johnson

6. Larry Johnson

7. Larry Johnson

8. Larry Johnson

9. Larry Johnson

10. Larry Johnson

 

If he would have started all 16 games, he would have destroyed the TD record and would have had 2000+ rushing.  If KC doesn't trade Priest, they are dumb.

If you don't draft Larry next year, you're dumb!

 

:D

 

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Or hurt/broken down by now. I don't want to take anything away from what he did, because it was great. But Alexander did take a whole season's worth of hits. LJ only took about half of that.

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My top 10:

1. Larry Johnson

2. Larry Johnson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Larry Johnson

5. Larry Johnson

6. Larry Johnson

7. Larry Johnson

8. Larry Johnson

9. Larry Johnson

10. Larry Johnson

 

If he would have started all 16 games, he would have destroyed the TD record and would have had 2000+ rushing.  If KC doesn't trade Priest, they are dumb.

If you don't draft Larry next year, you're dumb!

 

:D

 

 

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If the prevailing theory next year is that LT is done, I can't wait for next year.  The streak will end.  :D

 

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I dum.

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My top 12 for next season:

 

1) Ladanian Tomilson (because he is the safest bet at this point)

2) Sean Alexandar (what team will he be running for)

3) Larry Johnson (guy is a beast, but the O-line and P. Holmes are question marks)

4) Edge (especially if he is with the Colts)

5) Clinton Portis

6) Cadillac

7) Tiki Barber (I finally will draft him if he is around)

8) Steve Smith

9) Chad Johnson

10) D. Mcallister

11) R. Johnson

12) C. Palmer

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My top 12 for next season:

 

1)  Ladanian Tomilson  (because he is the safest bet at this point)

2)  Sean Alexandar (what team will he be running for)

3)  Larry Johnson (guy is a beast, but the O-line and P. Holmes are question marks)

4)  Edge (especially if he is with the Colts)

5)  Clinton Portis

6)  Cadillac

7)  Tiki Barber (I finally will draft him if he is around)

8)  Steve Smith

9) Chad Johnson

10)  D. Mcallister

11) R. Johnson

12)  C. Palmer

 

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I can't believe I have to start talking you people off of the ledge already... :D ( :D )

 

Players (edit to make that running backs) that tore an ACL never play at a stud level their first season back. I wouldn't touch McAllister with a 10 foot pole next year. Let someone else take a chance on him while his knee swells up and he misses games. The only top 10 he'll sniff is on Late Night.

 

As far as the rest goes....I don't have strong feelings overall about a top 10 yet. I just know that putting McAllister anywhere near it is a hugh mistake.

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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Corey Dillon in the top ten? Not anymore.

 

1. LJ (If Priest is not back in KC)

2. Shaun Alexander

3. LT (top 3 RBs are so close and LT gets the a small injury risk downgrade)

4. Tiki!! (He's like the energizer bunny!! My favorite running back in the NFL. Unfortunately he only has 1-2 seasons left at his current level)

5. Edge (Might move down some depending on where he ends up)

6. Peyton

7. Rudi Johnson

8. Clinton Portis

9. Chad Johnson

10. Carson Palmer (1 and 1/2 seasons of really great fantasy QBing sets a track record of sorts, but not as much as Peyton)

 

Honorable Mention: If you have a league that requires a tight end--Antonio Gates

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4. T. Barbar NYG

4. Barber (just keeps getting better)

7. Barber

5. Barber

4. Barber

5. Barber

7) Tiki Barber (I finally will draft him if he is around)

4. Tiki!! (He's like the energizer bunny!! My favorite running back in the NFL. Unfortunately he only has 1-2 seasons left at his current level)

 

 

im gonna cry...about dang time if you ask me

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Or hurt/broken down by now.  I don't want to take anything away from what he did, because it was great.  But Alexander did take a whole season's worth of hits.  LJ only took about half of that.

 

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Uh, no. LJ had 336 carries this year, Shaun Alexander had 370. LJ caught MORE passes than Shaun Alexander did.

 

So really LJ had a full season of work this year.

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