Salar cap - will there be one?

[Randall]

What to expect in an uncapped year

 

By Pat Kirwan

NFL.com Senior Analyst

(Feb. 10, 2006) -- There is a chance that 2007 will be an uncapped year if the collective bargaining agreement doesn't get extended. The closer we get to the start of this year's free agency, the more we will hear about an uncapped season in 2007 and the ramifications of such a situation. So I thought it might be a good idea to let the readers know what an uncapped year means, since the term is getting mentioned in the media on a daily basis.

 

If 2007 is uncapped, then qualifying free agents can be paid as much as can be negotiated. This sounds great for the players, but who are the qualifying free agents?

 

The rules to become a free agent change in an uncapped year. To become free, a player will need six years of service instead of four years and his contract has to be expired.

 

A player with five years of experience who under capped season rules would have been free, will now be a restricted free agent if the club decides to designate him as restricted. Quality players with five years of service will be restricted and not many teams will be willing to surrender high draft picks for them. A player waiting for his big 'free agency' contract with a nice fat signing bonus will probably play for a one-year salary with no signing bonus and risk a career ending injury.

 

The same rules apply to players with four years of service to those players with five years as mentioned in point No. 3. The group of potential free agents will be significantly reduced in 2007 because of the loss of four- and five-year players. The best players from the 2002 and 2003 draft classes will not be moving around too much in 2007.

 

If that isn't bad enough for the players hoping to hit the market, each club will also get an additional 'transition tag' to protect an older veteran. As long as the club offers a player in this category a one-year contract for the average of the top 10 players at his position, the franchise retains his rights unless another club wants to give significant draft compensation. Figure the top 32 veterans (one per club) who was supposed to hit free agency will now be tagged.

 

Just from points Nos. 3, 4, and 5, there should be very few quality free agents in 2007 if it is uncapped. My best guess is that 70 percent of the players who warrant big contracts because of their 2006 production and their age will be off the open market.