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Kiper's Mock


THE SIX KINGS
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Texans set to take Bush No. 1 overall

By Mel Kiper Jr.

 

 

Note: My first-round projections are based directly on the current position of each team in the draft and do not take into account potential trades.

 

 

It looks like the Houston Texans will take USC running back Reggie Bush with the No. 1 overall pick. The hottest spot in the draft to make a trade will be with the New Orleans Saints and the second pick. The only team the Saints could make a trade with -- and still get defensive end Mario Williams -- is the New York Jets. New York could trade up from the fourth overall pick and take USC QB Matt Leinart. Tennessee, which has the third pick, would then take Texas QB Vince Young. From what I have been told, the Titans have a very high opinion of Young.

 

 

 

The next place you could see a trade is with the sixth overall pick, owned by the San Francisco 49ers. The sixth spot is where you will begin to hear Maryland tight end Vernon Davis' name come up. Teams like the Cardinals, Rams and Broncos could all have an interest in the tight end; then again, the 49ers could keep the pick and draft Davis.

 

 

Here's another scenario. Young is still on the board when the Raiders pick at No. 7. They already have two quarterbacks (Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter), so they could make a deal with a team that has an interest in Young.

 

 

Another interesting spot to watch is with the Jets' second pick in the first round. They could go with Ohio State center Nick Mangold with the 29th pick, but don't be surprised if they take outside linebacker Bobby Carpenter, also from Ohio State. Carpenter is in the same mold of Mike Vrabel, another Ohio State alum. Vrabel's defensive coordinator with the Patriots last season was Eric Mangini, now the coach of the Jets. If the Jets don't take Carpenter, don't be surprised if the Steelers take him. Remember, before he signed with the Patriots, Vrabel originally was drafted by the Steelers.

 

 

As for the latest first-round projections, there are two noticeable changes. The first is that I have 10 defensive backs going in the first round. Florida State's Antonio Cromartie, who missed the entire 2005 season with a knee injury, had a tremendous individual workout (40-yard dash in the 4.3 range and a 44-inch vertical leap). In fact, he showed such great hands catching the ball that teams might be curious to see what type of wide receiver he could be. He's a cornerback in the NFL, but has the athleticism and hands to play on offense.

 

 

Cromartie isn't the only versatile defensive back in the first round. Michael Huff of Texas will initially be a cornerback in the NFL, but played safety in college; Ohio State's Donte Whitner played safety at Ohio State, but could be corner at the next level or a great cover safety; and Jason Allen was both a safety and corner at Tennessee. The true cover cornerbacks in the first round are Johnathan Joseph, Tye Hill, Ashton Youboty, Kelly Jennings and Richard Marshall.

 

 

The other noticeable change is how far the running backs (Laurence Maroney, LenDale White and DeAngelo Williams) have fallen, but it has nothing to do with their productivity. Arizona (10th pick) and Minnesota (17th pick) were looking at running backs in the first round before addressing those needs through free agency (the Cardinals signed Edgerrin James and the Vikings grabbed Chester Taylor).

 

 

One player from the Big Ten who has fallen is Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali. He didn't have great individual workouts; still, you cannot question his body of work on the field. Hali could still go late in the first round, but if he doesn't, a team will be getting a steal in the second round.

 

 

My Big Board will be updated the second week of April, while the next first-round projections will come out on April 17. The final projection will be April 28, the day before the draft.

 

 

 

First-Round Projections

1. Houston Reggie Bush, RB* USC

2. New Orleans Mario Williams, DE* NC State

3. Tennessee Matt Leinart, QB USC

4. N.Y. Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T Virginia

5. Green Bay A.J. Hawk, LB Ohio St.

6. San Francisco Vernon Davis, TE* Maryland

7. Oakland Vince Young, QB* Texas

8. Buffalo Brodrick Bunkley, DT Florida St.

9. Detroit Michael Huff, DB Texas

10. Arizona Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt

11. St. Louis Chad Greenway, LB Iowa

12. Cleveland Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB Florida St.

13. Baltimore Haloti Ngata, DT* Oregon

14. Philadelphia Winston Justice, T* USC

15. Denver (from ATL) Chad Jackson, WR* Florida

16. Miami Donte Whitner, S* Ohio St.

17. Minnesota Ernie Sims, LB* Florida St.

18. Dallas Jason Allen, S/CB Tennessee

19. San Diego Johnathan Joseph, CB* South Carolina

20. Kansas City Tye Hill, CB Clemson

21. New England Santonio Holmes, WR* Ohio St.

22. Denver (from WSH) DeAngelo Williams, RB Memphis

23. Tampa Bay Antonio Cromartie, CB* Florida St.

24. Cincinnati Jimmy Williams, CB Virginia Tech

25. N.Y. Giants Kelly Jennings, CB Miami

26. Chicago Richard Marshall CB* Fresno St.

27. Carolina LenDale White, RB* USC

28. Jacksonville Marcedes Lewis, TE UCLA

29. N.Y. Jets (from DEN) Nick Mangold, C Ohio St.

30. Indianapolis Laurence Maroney, RB* Minnesota

31. Seattle Ashton Youboty, CB* Ohio St.

32. Pittsburgh Sinorice Moss, WR Miami

 

 

 

* denotes underclassman

 

 

Stock Rising

Late first round, early second round

Chris Chester, C -- Oklahoma

Orien Harris, DT -- Miami

D'Qwell Jackson, LB -- Maryland

Davin Joseph, G -- Oklahoma

Taitusi "Duece" Latui, G -- USC

Manny Lawson, DE -- NC State

Rocky McIntosh, OLB -- Miami

Leonard Pope, TE -- Georgia

Eric Winston, T -- Miami

 

 

 

Early to middle of second round

Joseph Addai, RB -- LSU

Brodie Croyle, QB -- Alabama

David Thomas, TE -- Texas

Zach Strief, T -- Northwestern

 

 

3rd round

Will Blackmon, CB/WR -- Boston College

Chris Gocong, DE -- Cal Poly SLO

Devin Hester, CB/WR/returner -- Miami

Tarvaris Jackson, QB -- Alabama St.

Calvin Lowry, S -- Penn St.

Danieal Manning, CB -- Abilene Christian

David Pittman, CB -- Northwestern St.

Willie Reid, WR/Returner -- Florida St.

Joe Toledo, T -- Washington

Guy Whimper, T -- East Carolina

James Wyche, DE -- Syracuse

 

 

Stock Dropped

Jason Avant, WR -- Michigan

Dominique Byrd, TE -- USC

Tamba Hali, DE -- Penn St.

Thomas Howard, LB -- UTEP

Mathias Kiwanuka, DE -- Boston College

Ko Simpson, DB -- South Carolina

Alan Zemaitis, CB -- Penn St.

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Richard Marshall, Freseno State? Anyone know anything about this kid? I thought the rumor was the Bears were happy with Tillman to an extent.

 

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Richard Marshall

CB | (5'11", 189, 4.46) | FRESNO STATE

 

Scouts Grade: 80

 

Strengths: Possesses adequate overall size. Is strong and physical. Shows very good athleticism and top-end speed. Is quick and balanced in his pedal and shows good burst coming out of it. He plays with body control and shows the ability to change directions quickly. He possesses fluid hips and shows the ability to turn-and-run with faster receivers in the NFL. He also has good natural instincts and can develop into a good zone-cover corner with more experience. He is an absolute playmaker when he locates the ball on time. Has long arms, good leaping ability and will time his jumps well to catch the ball at its highest point. He has soft, strong hands and will fight for the ball in traffic. He's a threat on INT returns. He plays the run hard. Takes good angles and shows the ability to keep off of blocks. He wraps up well in space and also shows good pop as a tackler for the DC position. He's a durable, strong and flexible athlete.

 

Weaknesses: Possesses adequate but not elite size. Has room to improve in terms of his recognition skills and awareness. He shows a tendency to get late breaks because of his inability to read a receivers break quickly enough. He also will turn to late at times and struggle to locate the ball in the air.

 

Overall: Marshall redshirted in 2002 and started three of the 12 games he played as a redshirt freshman in 2003. He started all 13 games as a sophomore in 2004 and all 13 games as a junior in 2005. Marshall led the Bulldogs in tackles in 2005 with 78. As a three-year starter, he was selected second-team All-WAC twice (2004 and 2005). He set a Bulldog career record for interception return yard average, 33.9 yards on his nine career interception. He scored three touchdowns on interceptions in his career and had 305 career return yards, most of any active NCAA player. He finished his career with 176 career tackles, five tackles for losses, three fumble recoveries and 22 passes broken up. After emerging as the WAC's premier "shutdown" cover corner from 2004-'05, Marshall elected to forgo his senior season of eligibility in order make himself available for the 2006 NFL draft. Marshall is a bit of an unpolished cornerback who will need good coaching and time to develop before he's ready to handle a starting role in the NFL. However, he does show the size, speed, athletic ability, toughness and confidence to emerge as a good starting cornerback at the next level. He is equally adept in man-to-man and zone coverage, and he also has developed into an impact run support cornerback. Marshall should solidify a spot in the second round with strong post-season workouts.

 

Scouts Inc.

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Richard Marshall, Freseno State? Anyone know anything about this kid? I thought the rumor was the Bears were happy with Tillman to an extent.

 

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well theres been speculation for a few months now that the patriots are very high on him,via the pat hill/belichick connection....and that he was going to be a 2nd round target of the patriots....i think that combined with some good workouts has pushed him up

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I think Kiper's analysis is actually getting worse every year.

 

I still haven't heard anyone explain why the Saints would take Mario Wiliams instead of Ferguson. It just seems ludicrous to me.

 

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agree whole-heartedly....his mock's mock the actual art of mock drafting ahah

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I think Kiper's analysis is actually getting worse every year.

 

I still haven't heard anyone explain why the Saints would take Mario Wiliams instead of Ferguson. It just seems ludicrous to me.

 

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Couldn't find a mock from last year but these are his top 25 as of early april

 

1. Mike Williams (jr.), WR, USC (6-5, 230) | previous rank: 3

 

2. Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn (6-0, 230) | previous rank: 1

 

3. Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan (6-2½, 210) | previous rank: 2

 

While not physically imposing, "Cadillac" Williams is still a tough inside runner.

4. Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn (5-10½, 207) | previous rank: 8

 

5. Cedric Benson, RB, Texas (5-10½, 222) | previous rank: 4

 

6. Alex Smith (jr.), QB, Utah (6-3, 207) | previous rank: 5

 

7. Aaron Rodgers (jr.), QB, California (6-1½, 205) | previous rank: 7

 

8. Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas (6-3, 233) | previous rank: same

 

9. Adam "Pac-Man" Jones (jr.), CB, West Virginia (5-10¾, 191) | previous rank: 6

 

10. Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami (6-0½, 200) | previous rank: 17

 

11. Alex Barron, OT, Florida State (6-7, 325) | previous rank: 13

 

12. Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn (6-0, 194) | previous rank: 23

 

 

13. Troy Williamson (jr.), WR, South Carolina (6-1½, 200) | previous rank: 16

 

14. Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma (6-4, 265) | previous rank: 10

 

 

15. Shawne Merriman (jr.), OLB/DE, Maryland (6-3, 255) | previous rank: 11

 

16. Demarcus Ware, DE, Troy (6-4, 235) | previous rank: unranked

 

17. Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State (6-4, 292) | previous rank: 15

 

18. Marcus Spears, DE, LSU (6-4, 295) | previous rank: 14

 

19. Roddy White, WR, UAB (6-1, 205) | previous rank: 12

 

20. Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma (5-10, 188) | previous rank: unranked

 

21. Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan (6-0½, 202) | previous rank: unranked

 

22. Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington (6-5, 311) | previous rank: 20

 

Jammal Brown was a big, mobile obstacle between Jason White and defenders.

23. Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma (6-5, 313) | previous rank: 21

 

24. Heath Miller (jr.), TE, Virginia (6-4½, 255) | previous rank: 19

 

25. Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin (6-4, 260) | previous rank: 18

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I think Kiper's analysis is actually getting worse every year.

 

I still haven't heard anyone explain why the Saints would take Mario Wiliams instead of Ferguson. It just seems ludicrous to me.

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Ferguson is not a great run blocker. There are questions about his toughness (not enough to drop him out of the top 5, but enough to answer your question). Williams, while having been accused of taking plays off, offers the most upside/impact of any player in the draft. When drafting in the top 5, that is what you are looking for more than "team need".

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Ferguson is not a great run blocker.  There are questions about his toughness (not enough to drop him out of the top 5, but enough to answer your question).  Williams, while having been accused of taking plays off, offers the most upside/impact of any player in the draft.  When drafting in the top 5, that is what you are looking for more than "team need".

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Charles Grant and Will Smith are two stud DE already. Why put a player like that on the bench, or rotation guys, when you can secure your OL for the next decade with last yrs 1 and this yrs. Personally I think New Orleans eventually trades down to #4, and still gets Brick.

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Charles Grant and Will Smith are two stud DE already.  Why put a player like that on the bench, or rotation guys, when you can secure your OL for the next decade with last yrs 1 and this yrs.  Personally I think New Orleans eventually trades down to #4, and still gets Brick.

 

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If they trade down to #4, I agree, Ferguson would be a great pick for them.

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Charles Grant and Will Smith are two stud DE already.  Why put a player like that on the bench, or rotation guys, when you can secure your OL for the next decade with last yrs 1 and this yrs.  Personally I think New Orleans eventually trades down to #4, and still gets Brick.

 

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or trades down to 4 and still gets mario. depends who the jets would grab at 2 i guess (probably leinart, but maybe mario?)

 

i don't really understand why the saints would take another DE, either. good chance it's all a smoke screen because they want to trade the pick and they think they can get more value if teams expect them to take mario should they stay put. but if they're not looking to trade it, there's really no reason for the smokescreen. who knows, wait and see i guess.

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Dammit Kings, if you want me to read your posts, change your avatar! :D

 

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+1 :D

 

Eight CB's picked in the first round? I don't think so.

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If none of the receivers in this draft are graded higher than #15 (with Denver taking Chad Jackson) then I am of the opinion that this isn't a very good receiver class, and should be passed on till the second round. Everyone is just assuming Denver will take a receiver because Rod Smith is older than dirt, but I don't think this will happen. I think they might take a running back with pick #15 and then perhaps a safety with #22, like Bing from USC.

 

Generally I enjoy Mel Kiper Jr and his analysis, but I think he's off on this mock.

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If none of the receivers in this draft are graded higher than #15  (with Denver taking Chad Jackson) then I am of the opinion that this isn't a very good receiver class, and should be passed on till the second round. 

 

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I don't really agree with your rationale on the WR class. If a WR is projected to go 15th, then that's his value relative to all positions. You can't downgrade one player because his position class might be weak.

 

That said, whoever gets Chad Jackson in the mid-teens will get a steal. Remember Troy Williamson going seventh overall last year? Jackson is just as fast (if not faster) and he was MUCH more productive in college. Why would he be drafted 10 picks later? Not because the WR class is weak -- it's because the other positions are relatively stronger at the top of round 1.

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I don't really agree with your rationale on the WR class. If a WR is projected to go 15th, then that's his value relative to all positions. You can't downgrade one player because his position class might be weak.

 

That said, whoever gets Chad Jackson in the mid-teens will get a steal. Remember Troy Williamson going seventh overall last year? Jackson is just as fast (if not faster) and he was MUCH more productive in college. Why would he be drafted 10 picks later? Not because the WR class is weak -- it's because the other positions are relatively stronger at the top of round 1.

 

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Bingo!

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I wouldn't mind Hawk in a Packer uniform.

 

Perhaps Manny Lawson in the 2nd round?

 

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I hope and pray that the Vikes can get something done to nab Hawk before the Packers. As a Vikes fan it will be hard to watch two of the best linebackers in the league beat up on us 4 times a year. :D

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I hope and pray that the Vikes can get something done to nab Hawk before the Packers.  As a Vikes fan it will be hard to watch two of the best linebackers in the league beat up on us 4 times a year.  :D

 

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Gotta love the good ol' NFC North.

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I don't really agree with your rationale on the WR class. If a WR is projected to go 15th, then that's his value relative to all positions. You can't downgrade one player because his position class might be weak.

 

That said, whoever gets Chad Jackson in the mid-teens will get a steal. Remember Troy Williamson going seventh overall last year? Jackson is just as fast (if not faster) and he was MUCH more productive in college. Why would he be drafted 10 picks later? Not because the WR class is weak -- it's because the other positions are relatively stronger at the top of round 1.

 

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Rumbleings on KFAN the otherday was talk about Jackson dropping all the way to 17 and the Vikes taking him instead of Linebacker. Maybe the haven't been paying attention to detroit the past three years.

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Rumbleings on KFAN the otherday was talk about Jackson dropping all the way to 17 and the Vikes taking him instead of Linebacker. Maybe the haven't been paying attention to detroit the past three years.

 

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Please Minnesota, PLEASE, draft a WR. :D

 

I dare them.

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I don't really agree with your rationale on the WR class. If a WR is projected to go 15th, then that's his value relative to all positions. You can't downgrade one player because his position class might be weak.

 

That said, whoever gets Chad Jackson in the mid-teens will get a steal. Remember Troy Williamson going seventh overall last year? Jackson is just as fast (if not faster) and he was MUCH more productive in college. Why would he be drafted 10 picks later? Not because the WR class is weak -- it's because the other positions are relatively stronger at the top of round 1.

 

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yeah, if the overall WR class is weak, if anything that's a reason to bump a WR prospect UP your draft board, certainly not down.

 

that said, i hope the broncos don't take jackson. rookie WRs almost never contribute, i'd rather see them get a couple players who can help them right away...at DL, RB, DS..

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