1 or 2

[Duchess Jack]

No. 1 picks hold slight edge in success rate over No. 2 picks in past 20 years

By Todd Wright

 

April 19, 2006

 

This year, the Texans hold the enviable position of taking whomever they want in the upcoming draft. However, the Saints aren’t in that bad of a position either. Even if the guy they really, really, really want goes first to Houston.

 

Over the past 20 years, the top overall selection has worked out better than the second player picked just a little more than 50 percent of the time.

 

Perhaps it’s because a team picking first feels pressured to select a particular player even when it might be best-served doing something else that makes better sense.

 

Sometimes the best choices can be when there’s no choice at all, such as an NFL team that sits in the second spot deciding who the best two players are and then gets the one who happens to be available.

 

Here’s evidence of the battle between No. 1 and No. 2 and how the past two decades tell us that the Saints could very well end up with the better guy than the Texans without even trading up:

 

1986

Bo Jackson vs. Tony Casillas. Bo was the better player in two sports, although I still must note here that Bo wasn’t actually wearing ice skates when he filmed the hockey scene in his famous “You don’t know Diddley” crappy shoes from spammers commercial. EDGE: No. 1

 

1987

Vinny Testaverde vs. Cornelius Bennett. Had the Bucs actually signed Bo Jackson the year before, Vinny would’ve never had the horror of being a Buc in the first place. EDGE: No. 2

 

1988

Aundray Bruce vs. Neil Smith. It has been 18 years and I still can’t figure out what the Falcons were thinking here. Well, may it remain one of life’s great mysteries right there with Stonehenge and the appeal of Andy Dick. EDGE: No. 2

 

1989

Troy Aikman vs. Tony Mandarich. Anything I could write here would simply be an understatement. What makes it worse is what happened after Green Bay took “The Incredible Bulk.” Barry Sanders went third, Derrick Thomas went fourth, Deion Sanders went fifth. EDGE: No. 1

 

1990

Jeff George vs. Blair Thomas. While George is best-known for all the wrong reasons, at least he had a legitimate NFL career. For Jets fans who also follow the PGA Tour, they know Thomas was slower getting to a hole than Bernhard Langer. EDGE: No. 1

 

1991

Russell Maryland vs. Eric Turner. Turner was a two-time Pro Bowl safety, but Maryland was a dependable piece of a defensive line rotation that helped bring home three championships over four years in Dallas. EDGE: No. 1

 

1992

Steve Emtman vs. Quentin Coryatt. The Colts had the great fortune of having the top two selections, but also the misfortune of 1992 turning out to be one of the worst overall draft classes in recent memory. It doesn’t get much worse than David Klingler being the first quarterback selected, with the top three running backs being, in order, Tommy Vardell, Tony Smith and Vaughn Dunbar. EDGE: No. 2

 

1993

Drew Bledsoe vs. Rick Mirer. Fortunately for Mirer, Beano Cook’s proclamation of Ron Powlus winning multiple Heisman Trophies makes another Notre Dame quarterback look like the bigger disappointment. EDGE: No. 1

 

1994

Dan Wilkinson vs. Marshall Faulk. At his best, Faulk was simply awesome, whether it was at San Diego State, Indianapolis or as the key piece of “The Greatest Show on Turf.” EDGE: No. 2

 

1995

Ki-Jana Carter vs. Tony Boselli. The Bengals traded up to get Carter, and the results were disastrous. Boselli wasn’t the next Anthony Munoz, but his steady play right from the beginning was significant in the expansion Jaguars’ rapid rise to contender status. EDGE: No. 2

 

1996

Keyshawn Johnson vs. Kevin Hardy. Even though Keyshawn wasn’t the best receiver taken in the first round in this draft (Marvin Harrison was selected 19th), he still has won a Super Bowl and continues to produce 10 years later. Funny, Hardy wasn’t the best at his position in this first round either (Ray Lewis went 26th). EDGE: No. 1.

 

1997

Orlando Pace vs. Darrell Russell. Warner and Bulger always had time to air it out, thanks to Pace’s protection on their blind side. Faulk never had a problem finding a running lane on that side either. EDGE: No. 1

 

1998

Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf. These guys were supposedly No. 1 and No. 1A right up to Draft Day. The Chargers can’t be blamed for this one as any team picking second in this draft would’ve done the same thing and it would have turned out the same way. Only difference would’ve been that some other reporter would’ve gotten yelled at instead of Jay Posner. EDGE: No. 1

 

1999

Tim Couch vs. Donovan McNabb. The only thing worse the Browns did in terms of choosing quarterbacks came the next year when they pegged Spergon Wynn in the sixth round with Tom Brady still on the board. EDGE: No. 2

 

2000

Courtney Brown vs. LaVar Arrington. Don’t let Arrington’s recent antics fool you into believing that he wasn’t the better player then and isn’t the better player now. Who was making these calls in Cleveland anyway? Drew Carey? EDGE: No. 2

 

2001

Michael Vick vs. Leonard Davis. Vick may be at a crossroads in his career right now, but he has been pretty good over his first five years and there’s still the potential for very big things in Atlanta. EDGE: No. 1

 

2002

David Carr vs. Julius Peppers. Hmmm. The Texans went with the best offensive skill-position guy over the impact defensive end, and it didn’t really work out. Sound familiar? EDGE: No. 2

 

2003

Carson Palmer vs. Charles Rogers. It’s a shame that you instantly think of injuries when it comes to both of these guys. There’s a good chance the productive Palmer will make it all the way back. Unfortunately, Rogers never really had a chance. EDGE: No. 1

 

2004

Eli Manning vs. Robert Gallery. The Gallery selection might be the only thing Al Davis has done right since Super Bowl XXXVII. Eli needs to complete more passes, but he has already had a positive effect on his team in the standings. EDGE: EVEN

 

2005

Alex Smith vs. Ronnie Brown. You cannot call any player a bust after one season. However, Smith had moments during his rookie season that made him look more like the product of a college system than a franchise player. Ricky or no Ricky, Brown is special, and Nick Saban knew it all along. EDGE: No. 2

[loaf]

1999

Tim Couch vs. Donovan McNabb. The only thing worse the Browns did in terms of choosing quarterbacks came the next year when they pegged Spergon Wynn in the sixth round with Tom Brady still on the board. EDGE: No. 2

 

 

2000

Courtney Brown vs. LaVar Arrington. Don’t let Arrington’s recent antics fool you into believing that he wasn’t the better player then and isn’t the better player now. Who was making these calls in Cleveland anyway? Drew Carey? EDGE: No. 2

[Doc Holliday]

"2004

Eli Manning vs. Robert Gallery. The Gallery selection might be the only thing Al Davis has done right since Super Bowl XXXVII. Eli needs to complete more passes, but he has already had a positive effect on his team in the standings. EDGE: EVEN"

 

 

You have to be joking.

[Jackass]

2002

David Carr vs. Julius Peppers. Hmmm. The Texans went with the best offensive skill-position guy over the impact defensive end, and it didn’t really work out. Sound familiar? EDGE: No. 2

 

wonder if this will affect their decision

2003

Carson Palmer vs. Charles Rogers. It’s a shame that you instantly think of injuries when it comes to both of these guys. There’s a good chance the productive Palmer will make it all the way back. Unfortunately, Rogers never really had a chance. EDGE: No. 1

 

man, draft decisions can be huge

 

2004

Eli Manning vs. Robert Gallery. The Gallery selection might be the only thing Al Davis has done right since Super Bowl XXXVII. Eli needs to complete more passes, but he has already had a positive effect on his team in the standings. EDGE: EVEN

 

Don't think i can agree with this

 

2005

Alex Smith vs. Ronnie Brown. You cannot call any player a bust after one season. However, Smith had moments during his rookie season that made him look more like the product of a college system than a franchise player. Ricky or no Ricky, Brown is special, and Nick Saban knew it all along. EDGE: No. 2

 

Alex did not look great last year, but think it's too soon to call

Edited April 20, 2006 by Jackass

[keggerz]

my god if you look at the players taken at 1 & 2 you might think they were throwing darts in most war rooms

 

i mean how many #1 or #2s have really panned out to be worth their salt?

 

looks like a pretty high rate of failure in getting those picks right

Edited April 20, 2006 by keggerz

[Randall]

1989

Troy Aikman vs. Tony Mandarich. Anything I could write here would simply be an understatement. What makes it worse is what happened after Green Bay took “The Incredible Bulk.” Barry Sanders went third, Derrick Thomas went fourth, Deion Sanders went fifth. EDGE: No. 1

 

 

 

Don't remind me.

[muck]

This is a good object lesson in why it's always (nearly) a good idea to trade your picks so you end up with as many picks between the end of the first round and the middle of the sixth round as possible.

 

...or, that's how I'd try to do it if I were a GM...

[Puddy]

1987

Vinny Testaverde  vs. Cornelius Bennett. Had the Bucs actually signed Bo Jackson the year before, Vinny would’ve never had the horror of being a Buc in the first place. EDGE: No. 2

 

 

 

1429751[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

Vinny had a rather productive long career - at least later in his career. I know Bennett was pretty good but is this an obvious one.

[Raider.Nation]

This is a good object lesson in why it's always (nearly) a good idea to trade your picks so you end up with as many picks between the end of the first round and the middle of the sixth round as possible.

 

...or, that's how I'd try to do it if I were a GM...

 

1429979[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Denver is a great example of a team who uses those picks efficiently. With the exception of last season's 3rd round cut (Clarett), they always seem to find gem's in those middle rounds.

[Jackass]

This is a good object lesson in why it's always (nearly) a good idea to trade your picks so you end up with as many picks between the end of the first round and the middle of the sixth round as possible.

 

...or, that's how I'd try to do it if I were a GM...

 

1429979[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I don't know. A lot of the true stars were picked in the top of the first round. And a lot of players in the lower rounds failed too. We just forget about them a lot easier.

[kpholmes]

Good read, thanks much.

[muck]

I don't know.  A lot of the true stars were picked in the top of the first round.  And a lot of players in the lower rounds failed too.  We just forget about them a lot easier.

 

1430274[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Yes...but the guys that flop in the 3rd round are a whole bunch cheaper than the guys who flop in the top half of the 1st round...

 

Essentially, it's a "shotgun" vs. "rifle" argument.

[keggerz]

Yes...but the guys that flop in the 3rd round are a whole bunch cheaper than the guys who flop in the top half of the 1st round...

 

Essentially, it's a "shotgun" vs. "rifle" argument.

 

1430475[/snapback]

 

 

 

more pasta to throw against the wall

[T-Scorp]

JMHO but the teams that usually have the #1 or #2 pick are really bad teams! I think that is why there seems to be more success from later first round picks. Those players land on teams that have other great players and good coaches. Easier to be a star when surrounded by talent!