Opine on your top 12 2006 fantasy QBs

[yo mama]

Okay, so I'm a bit OCD about fantasy football. Sue me. But I'm starting to break down last year's stats, in connection with offseason news, in order to construct an early version of my cheat sheet and rankings. I generally start with QBs first, as it has the lowest population of players to evaluate and, therefore, is the easiest position to ease back into FF with.

 

So, back to the topic at hand: projected top 12 fantasy QBs. So far, all I can come up with (in no particular order) are:

- Big Manning;

- McNabb;

- C. Palmer;

- M. Hasselbeck;

- M. Vick;

- J. Delhomme;

- M. Bulger;

- T. Brady; and

- T. Green.

 

But I see no obvious, iron-clad candidates to round out the top 12. Reasonable minds can disagree, but:

- Brees: shoulder still an issue and on a new team;

- Favre: fork, please

- E. Manning: maybe

- B. Roethlisberger: maybe

- Jake Plummer: maybe

- Culpepper: knee is nowhere near ready, new team

- McNair: still locked out, lost a step

- Leftwich: assuming the injury from last year isn't a problem, maybe

- Brooks: new team, bad decision maker

- Warner: if he played 16 games, maybe. But you *know* you can draft him outside the top 12.

- Bledsoe: same as Warner.

 

Thoughts? Or is it just too freakin' early to discuss this?

[Swiss Cheezhead]

No, it's not too early, but it's the same old story: QBs are still poor value picks in the first 3-5 rounds (depending on how a draft goes). This year is probably an even better example of that.

 

Outside of Manning, who should be piling up yardage without Edge, the next 12-15 have a roughly equal chance of being the #2 fantasy QB. Bold statement? Maybe. But it's fairly accurate.

 

That said, I think the best values will be Roethlisberger, Leftwich, Delhomme, and Vick. I would add Eli to that group, but somebody will take him too early in every draft, based on his name and early '05 success.

[Randall]

If McNair leaves Volek, but he is a question mark because you don't know if the rookie will start later in the year. Favre?

[MojoMan]

What is Vick doing in there?

[Avernus]

1. Manning...jeah

2. McNabb...healthy again

3. Palmer...if he plays...he has a plethora of weapons

4. Brady...defense isn't what it used to be...he has the weapons to sling it...

5. E Manning...he's a Manning...he should progress...and then regress in the real playoffs..

6. Bulger...has weapons...health is a concern...

7. Hasselbeck...let's see...good year..then bad year...good year...bad year...good year...uhh?...see a trend?..

8. Delhomme...he has the weapons...I'd take him over Hasselbeck...but Hass plays weaker teams..

9. Warner...crazy weapons...as Yo said, health is a concern and I'd handcuff him with whoever his backup is

10. Plummer...he'll likely get Walker...I'd lay money on it he goes to denver over Philly right now..

11. Leftwich...I like him at 11...

12. Bledsoe...TO is going to offer plenty of big plays and a sure-fire weapon at least for the 1st 9 or 10 games

13. Green...age is a factor...lack of weapons...except Gonzo who keeps having to stay in and block when a lineman goes down and Kennison who I hate..

14. Brooks...has Moss, Porter and Jordan to throw to...but may not play near the end of the season because of a rookie coming in...

15. ?????????

 

sleepers...

 

Rivers, Frye, Carr and maybe Kitna....

 

Grossman just has to stay healthy...but I hate QB's who play in cold/windy weather when it's playoff time for me

 

ps: yeah, it is too early ahaha

[juanruiz13]

1. Manning...jeah

2. McNabb...healthy again

3. Palmer...if he plays...he has a plethora of weapons

4. Brady...defense isn't what it used to be...he has the weapons to sling it...

5. E Manning...he's a Manning...he should progress...and then regress in the real playoffs..

6. Bulger...has weapons...health is a concern...

7. Hasselbeck...let's see...good year..then bad year...good year...bad year...good year...uhh?...see a trend?..

8. Delhomme...he has the weapons...I'd take him over Hasselbeck...but Hass plays weaker teams..

9. Warner...crazy weapons...as Yo said, health is a concern and I'd handcuff him with whoever his backup is

10. Plummer...he'll likely get Walker...I'd lay money on it he goes to denver over Philly right now..

11. Leftwich...I like him at 11...

12. Bledsoe...TO is going to offer plenty of big plays and a sure-fire weapon at least for the 1st 9 or 10 games

13. Green...age is a factor...lack of weapons...except Gonzo who keeps having to stay in and block when a lineman goes down and Kennison who I hate..

14. Brooks...has Moss, Porter and Jordan to throw to...but may not play near the end of the season because of a rookie coming in...

15. ?????????

 

sleepers...

 

Rivers, Frye, Carr and maybe Kitna....

 

Grossman just has to stay healthy...but I hate QB's who play in cold/windy weather when it's playoff time for me

 

ps: yeah, it is too early ahaha

 

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I like your list... 4-7 are interchangeable IMO. No Culpepper?? I'd probably put him right around 10 knowing what I do now. But definitely too early

[Avernus]

I like your list...  4-7 are interchangeable IMO.  No Culpepper??  I'd probably put him right around 10 knowing what I do now.  But definitely too early

 

1437737[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

agreed...and Culpepper does not make the list until I see he can play pre-october...

 

if anything...I'd take him as a #2 or 3 even if I am stacked elsewhere....maybe a 2 if he's guaranteed to play by the 2nd week of october...and my #1 has a late bye week...

[VikesGuy]

Okay, so I'm a bit OCD about fantasy football.  Sue me.  But I'm starting to break down last year's stats, in connection with offseason news, in order to construct an early version of my cheat sheet and rankings.  I generally start with QBs first, as it has the lowest population of players to evaluate and, therefore, is the easiest position to ease back into FF with.

 

So, back to the topic at hand: projected top 12 fantasy QBs.  So far, all I can come up with (in no particular order) are:

- Big Manning;

- McNabb;

- C. Palmer;

- M. Hasselbeck;

- M. Vick;

- J. Delhomme;

- M. Bulger;

- T. Brady; and

- T. Green.

 

But I see no obvious, iron-clad candidates to round out the top 12.  Reasonable minds can disagree, but:

- Brees: shoulder still an issue and on a new team;

- Favre: fork, please

- E. Manning: maybe

- B. Roethlisberger: maybe

- Jake Plummer: maybe

- Culpepper: knee is nowhere near ready, new team

- McNair: still locked out, lost a step

- Leftwich: assuming the injury from last year isn't a problem, maybe

- Brooks: new team, bad decision maker

- Warner: if he played 16 games, maybe.  But you *know* you can draft him outside the top 12.

- Bledsoe: same as Warner.

 

Thoughts?  Or is it just too freakin' early to discuss this?

 

1437652[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

You have Palmer pretty high, with the fact he is comming back from injury as well.

[rajncajn]

I see it more like this

 

- Big Manning;

- C. Palmer;

- M. Hasselbeck;

- McNabb;

- M. Bulger;

- T. Brady;

- J. Delhomme;

- Favre;

- Eli;

[Whiskey Pimp]

Okay, so I'm a bit OCD about fantasy football.  Sue me.  But I'm starting to break down last year's stats, in connection with offseason news, in order to construct an early version of my cheat sheet and rankings.  I generally start with QBs first, as it has the lowest population of players to evaluate and, therefore, is the easiest position to ease back into FF with.

 

So, back to the topic at hand: projected top 12 fantasy QBs.  So far, all I can come up with (in no particular order) are:

- Big Manning;

- McNabb;

- C. Palmer;

- M. Hasselbeck;

- M. Vick;

- J. Delhomme;

- M. Bulger;

- T. Brady; and

- T. Green.

 

But I see no obvious, iron-clad candidates to round out the top 12.  Reasonable minds can disagree, but:

- Brees: shoulder still an issue and on a new team;

- Favre: fork, please

- E. Manning: maybe

- B. Roethlisberger: maybe

- Jake Plummer: maybe

- Culpepper: knee is nowhere near ready, new team

- McNair: still locked out, lost a step

- Leftwich: assuming the injury from last year isn't a problem, maybe

- Brooks: new team, bad decision maker

- Warner: if he played 16 games, maybe.  But you *know* you can draft him outside the top 12.

- Bledsoe: same as Warner.

 

Thoughts?  Or is it just too freakin' early to discuss this?

 

1437652[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

You have Palmer pretty high, with the fact he is comming back from injury as well.

 

1437760[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

See bold text in top quote.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

I see it more like this

 

- Big Manning;

- C. Palmer;

- M. Hasselbeck;

- McNabb;

- M. Bulger;

- T. Brady;

- J. Delhomme;

- Favre;

- Eli;

 

1437839[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I think this is as close to my list as anyone could get.

[Caveman_Nick]

1. P Manning

2. T Brady

3. J Plummer

4. M Hasselbeck

5. E Manning

6. M Bulger

7. A Brooks

8. D McNabb

9. J Delhomme

10. B Favre

11. D Bledsoe

12. K Warner

13. M Vick

14. T Green

15. B Roethlisberger

 

Honorable mention to Chris Sims, D Carr, J Kitna/J McCown, Leftwich all of whom I think will have somewhat productive seasons.

 

Let some other person take the chance on Palmer, Culpepper, or McNair. The injury factor is too high. Honestly, I am tempted to drop Bulger and McNabb down the list, but I think they will be okay.

Edited April 26, 2006 by Caveman_Nick

[Swiss Cheezhead]

1. Manning...jeah -- agreed

2. McNabb...healthy again -- but without T.O. Reggie Brown as his #1? His numbers will be closer to '02-'04.

3. Palmer...if he plays...he has a plethora of weapons -- inury alone makes #3 too high

4. Brady...defense isn't what it used to be...he has the weapons to sling it... -- IF they get somebody in the draft to replace Givens, then he deserves this spot. Otherwise, no.

5. E Manning...he's a Manning...he should progress...and then regress in the real playoffs.. -- Sure.

6. Bulger...has weapons...health is a concern... -- He could be very good in Linehan's offense. Hell, Frerotte was decent.

7. Hasselbeck...let's see...good year..then bad year...good year...bad year...good year...uhh?...see a trend?.. -- Addition of Burleson and healthy Warrick combined with inevitable slow-down of SA means Hass should be higher.

8. Delhomme...he has the weapons...I'd take him over Hasselbeck...but Hass plays weaker teams.. -- defense will be too good for him to need to throw much, but he'll be a good value pick regardless.

9. Warner...crazy weapons...as Yo said, health is a concern and I'd handcuff him with whoever his backup is -- Agree that brittleness moves him down significantly. As long as he's healthy, he's top-5 or -7

10. Plummer...he'll likely get Walker...I'd lay money on it he goes to denver over Philly right now.. -- No thanks. MAYBE if he gets Walker, but still wouldn't be this high. He was too much of a "caretaker" last year.

11. Leftwich...I like him at 11... -- He'll be a surprise this year.

12. Bledsoe...TO is going to offer plenty of big plays and a sure-fire weapon at least for the 1st 9 or 10 games -- Yep. Bledsoe will be even better than last year, obviously, which means he's probably a lock for top-10. That's certainly sounds strange...

13. Green...age is a factor...lack of weapons...except Gonzo who keeps having to stay in and block when a lineman goes down and Kennison who I hate.. -- This is the year he falls off the fantasy map completely. Maybe not right away, but I can't see him producing for his fantasy owners in the playoffs.

14. Brooks...has Moss, Porter and Jordan to throw to...but may not play near the end of the season because of a rookie coming in... -- Brooks is another value pick. If he's a decent starter in New Orleans, he could be very good throwing to Moss.

15. ????????? -- There's no way Vick should be out of the top 15. Whatever you feel about him as an NFL QB, he's still got one of the better points-per-game fantasy averages among QBs in the last few years. It's funny how because he was so OVERvalued before, he's become UNDERvalued now.

 

sleepers...Rivers, Frye, Carr and maybe Kitna.... Rivers will be decent, but not worthy of starting. Same with Frye. Carr will come on strong late in the season and Kitna will be backing up McCown, who will flirt with making this list.

 

Grossman just has to stay healthy...but I hate QB's who play in cold/windy weather when it's playoff time for me --

Edited April 26, 2006 by Swiss Cheezhead

[Azazello1313]

manning is the only one i would even think about in round 1, mcnabb is the only other one i would even think about until round 4 or 5. palmer maybe if he's taking snaps in training camp. at least 10 other guys should represent about the same value heading into the season.

[The Misfit]

Thanks for getting my mind off work and onto something important.

 

You know, now that you mention it, I think I would be much more tempted to take Manning this year than last. My draft strategy last year was pretty simple: Get Palmer and LJ. This year, Manning is the only QB out there with a high probability of posting monster numbers.

 

I think I'd tier 'em like this ...

 

Tier 1: (closest thing to a lock)

Peyton

 

Tier 2: (potential production)

Brady

Eli

Bulger

Bledsoe - whether you hate him or not, TO has a way of turning QBs into fantasy studs

McNabb

Hasselbeck

Leftwich

 

Tier 3:

The rest

 

I worry not just about Palmer's injury, but the Bengals schedule is brutal at the start of the year. I could see either an 80 percent Palmer struggling, or even a decision not to rush him back at all next season if they get off to a 2-4 or 1-5 start.

[Avernus]

2. McNabb...healthy again -- but without T.O. Reggie Brown as his #1? His numbers will be closer to '02-'04.

 

in 02 his numbers were very good until he was injured...I think they'll sign someone regardless...he still has his ability and weapons...

 

3. Palmer...if he plays...he has a plethora of weapons -- inury alone makes #3 too high

 

if his shoulder was what he injured like Brees...then yeah...I see no drop-off...

 

4. Brady...defense isn't what it used to be...he has the weapons to sling it-- IF they get somebody in the draft to replace Givens, then he deserves this spot. Otherwise, no.

 

he has at least 2 RB's who can catch...Branch, Bethel Johnson, Ben watson, D Graham and Reche Caldwell...I think that's enough..

 

10. Plummer...he'll likely get Walker...I'd lay money on it he goes to denver over Philly right now.. -- No thanks. MAYBE if he gets Walker, but still wouldn't be this high. He was too much of a "caretaker" last year.

 

I think with Smith and Walker...and likely a rookie back...they'll be throwing more...plus Anderson was money for shart yardage situations which kept them from throwing as much..can Dayne replace this??...he can get yards in the system...but short yardage is a different ballgame..

 

11. Leftwich...I like him at 11... -- He'll be a surprise this year.

 

I think he could be top 5 if he gets into a rhythm early

 

12. Bledsoe...TO is going to offer plenty of big plays and a sure-fire weapon at least for the 1st 9 or 10 games -- Yep. Bledsoe will be even better than last year, obviously, which means he's probably a lock for top-10. That's certainly sounds strange...

 

I wanted to rank him where I had Plummer...but felt funny about it lol...

 

13. Green...age is a factor...lack of weapons...except Gonzo who keeps having to stay in and block when a lineman goes down and Kennison who I hate.. -- This is the year he falls off the fantasy map completely. Maybe not right away, but I can't see him producing for his fantasy owners in the playoffs.

 

I agree...but I say this every year and...well, I won't draft him anyways...never have and never will..

 

14. Brooks...has Moss, Porter and Jordan to throw to...but may not play near the end of the season because of a rookie coming in... -- Brooks is another value pick. If he's a decent starter in New Orleans, he could be very good throwing to Moss.

 

I would think so...I'm just afraid of the new rookie getting some playing time late in the season when they are out of a playoff spot and Al Davis is calling for the rook to go in...

 

 

15. Vick has no consistency....you can't even gauge what kind of matchup he might do well in anymore....unless it's MNF....he isn't even a lock against the Panthers or saints anymore...teams know how to play him and he only really has jenkins who .....could have a breakout year if Vick learns how to hit something...

[yo mama]

Okay, some of my preliminary QB research has been organized, which I'll share in greater detail once complete. I plan on noting some of my observations and trends later on, if any one cares.

 

I'd say one of the most striking findings thus far is that looking at a 5 year rolling average, Mark Bulger has surfaced as the QB who has posted the highest historical average fantasy points per game. Sure, he never seems to stay healthy for 16 games. But if he ever did...

Edited April 28, 2006 by yo mama