Change in DEN's draft approach?

[rhino]

Am I the only one who sees this as more than a coincidence?

 

1. In years past, Denver has been known to draft offensive skill players late, and coach them up. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Desmond Clark, Jeb Putzier, etc.

 

2. In HOU, Kubiak has used the end of his draft to draft offensive skill players: TE at 4.01 and RB at 6.01. Is this a plan to coach them up?

 

3. It's interesting that Denver's first draft WITHOUT Kubiak includes HIGH draft picks on offensive skill players: 1.11 QB Jay Cutler; 2.29 TE Tony Scheffler; 4.22 WR Brandon Marshall. First 3 picks are on offense. Then there's the trade to get WR Javon Walker.

 

Is DEN's 2006 drafting of early offensive skill players a sign that they're not confident of coaching up players any more? Did the DEN's ability to "coach up" later offensive draft picks leave when Kubiak left?

Edited April 30, 2006 by rhino

[Chavez]

Interesting thoughts, to be sure.

 

One thing about it - Den's offense has been set for quite a while - for one, they can let zone blocking linemen fall to them, as few to no other teams ran that scheme for quite a while; they had decent QBing - Elway, Griese, FA Plummer - eliminating the need to reach in that area; skill players were either set, or they could grab RBs late and make them productive.

 

Meanwhile, the defense, while good, always appeared to need work.

 

Perhaps the shoe is on the other foot now, with McCaffrey and their huge cast of TEs gone, Smith aging, and Lelie a disappointment, and Plummer having used up all his rope.

 

Or maybe it's just a case of letting the draft come to them - aside from the move up to get Cutler, if the best available player was on offense, that's who they should draft.

[Azazello1313]

ahley lelie, tatum bell, george foster, marcus nash...they've used lots of high round picks on offense in the past.

[DMD]

I heard Shanahan talk about their draft and he said taking Cutler was a no brainer because Shanny strongly feels that Cutler can become one of those "rare" QBs and he more or less said Plummer is a good QB who will never be a great QB like Cutler could.

 

DEN used a first round pick on Lelie in 2002, a 2.09 on Tatum Bell and a 2.22 on Darius Watts in 2005 so it is not as if they have not used higher picks on offensive players but typically - the RBs have come from far deeper in the draft until Tatum Bell.

 

I think their choices in the draft were pretty much in line with the value that was there when they picked and what they needed.

[godtomsatan]

1.  In years past, Denver has been known to draft offensive skill players late, and coach them up.  Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Desmond Clark, Jeb Putzier, etc.

 

 

2004: Tatum Bell, Round 2. Darius Watts, Round 2.

2002: Ashley Lelie, Round 1. Clinton Portis, Round 2.

 

That kind of makes the rest of the post moot.

Edited May 1, 2006 by godtomsatan

[godtomsatan]

I think their choices in the draft were pretty much in line with the value that was there when they picked and what they needed.

 

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Did they need a QB?

 

I'm confused by the Broncos selection. Cutler may be the real thing and all, like everyone says, but what's so awful with Plummer, especially with a roster so close to Championship level?

 

One bad game in January, and that's the book on Plummer?

[rhino]

ahley lelie, tatum bell, george foster, marcus nash...they've used lots of high round picks on offense in the past.

 

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I heard Shanahan talk about their draft and he said taking Cutler was a no brainer because Shanny strongly feels that Cutler can become one of those "rare" QBs and he more or less said Plummer is a good QB who will never be a great QB like Cutler could.

 

DEN used a first round pick on Lelie in 2002, a 2.09 on Tatum Bell and a 2.22 on Darius Watts in 2005 so it is not as if they have not used higher picks on offensive players but typically - the RBs have come from far deeper in the draft until Tatum Bell.

 

I think their choices in the draft were pretty much in line with the value that was there when they picked and what they needed.

 

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Excellent points, both. I guess I'm reading too much into it.

 

But, I'm gonna' type as I research this, and see how this falls out. Starting with 1995, when Shanahan and Kubiak came to the Denver Broncos as HC & OC/Quarterbacks Coach. And let's use the 2006 picks as a benchmark.

 

QB

DEN's first pick of 2006 was a QB, Jay Cutler, MOVING UP to get him at 1.11.

 

1995 -- None

1996 -- Jeff Lewis (4th rd)

1997 -- None

1998 -- Brian Griese (3rd)

1999 -- None

2000 -- Jarius Jackson (7th)

2001 -- None

2002 -- None

2003 -- None

2004 -- Matt Mauck (7th), Bradlee Van Pelt (7th)

2005 -- None

 

So, in Shanahan/Kubiak's tenure at DEN, the highest they took a QB was in the 3rd round. But, more recently, it's been 7th rounders. And here, they MOVE UP to get Jay Cutler. Sure, by itself, this draft pick doesn't seem out of place.

 

TE

DEN's second pick of 2006 was a TE, Tony Scheffler.

 

1995 -- Byron Chamberlain (7th rd)

1996 -- None

1997 -- None

1998 -- None

1999 -- Billy Miller (7th), Justin Swift (7th)

2000 -- None

2001 -- None

2002 -- Jeb Putzier (6th)

2003 -- None

2004 -- None

2005 -- None

 

So, in Shanahan/Kubiak's tenure at DEN, the highest they took a TE was in the 6th round. And here, they take one in the 2nd?! Sure, by itself, this draft pick doesn't seem out of place. But, based on their history, and using their first 2 picks on QB/TE, is this a sign?

 

WR

DEN uses a 2nd round pick to trade with GB to get Javon Walker. Great value, but I'm thinking it goes against DEN's drafting history. And then DEN's 3rd pick overall, in the 4th round, was WR Brandon Marshall. This is AFTER they received Javon Walker in a trade from GB. Denver's drafting history on WRs seem all over the place, so I don't know if I have much room to talk on this one. And we know that DEN has had a hard time drafting WRs. But let's take a look, and see if there's a pattern.

 

1995 -- None

1996 -- Patrick Jeffers (5th rd)

1997 -- None

1998 -- Marcus Nash (1st)

1999 -- Travis McGriff (3rd), Chad Plummer (6th)

2000 -- Chris Cole (3rd), Muneer Moore (5th), Leroy Fields (7th)

2001 -- Kevin Kasper (6th)

2002 -- Ashley Lelie (1st), Herb Haygood (5th)

2003 -- Adrian Madise (5th)

2004 -- Darius Watts (2nd), Triandos Luke (6th)

2005 -- None

 

So, it appears to me, that DEN ONLY uses a high draft pick (1st or 2nd round) on a WR when they have gone years with failed WR experiments. So, IMHO, DEN prefers to draft 'em low and coach them up, then realizes it's not working, and bites the bullet for one year to draft a WR high.

 

Marcus Nash drafted in the 1st round in 1998. Nothing before MNash, while Shanahan was HC.

 

Ashley Lelie drafted in the 1st round in 2002. This is after 3 years of trying to draft 'em low and coach them up.

 

Darius Watts drafted in the 2nd round in 2004. Only took 1 year of drafting low (Madise in 2003) before we see another high pick on WR.

 

So, this can go either way. DEN has drafted WRs high in the recent past, but their history can also be argued that they prefer to draft low and coach them up.

 

RB

The last of the skill positions we haven't discussed. I'm really surprised they didn't draft a RB this year, but I digress. I think it's safe to say that Clinton Portis and Tatum Bell were exceptions to the rule, and not the rule.

 

1995 -- Terrell Davis (6th rd)

1996 -- LT Levine (7th)

1997 -- None

1998 -- Curtis Alexander (4th), Chris Howard (5th)

1999 -- Olandis Gary (4th)

2000 -- Mike Anderson (6th)

2001 -- None

2002 -- Clinton Portis (2nd)

2003 -- Quentin Griffin (4th), Ahmaad Galloway (7th)

2004 -- Tatum Bell (2nd), Brandon Miree (7th)

2005 -- Maurice Clarett (3rd) <-- joke of a pick.

 

Conclusion

So, is this not enough evidence to suggest that DEN without Kubiak is no longer confident in finding offensive gems later in the draft, as their history indicates? Or, am I reading too much into this?

 

BTW, HOU with Kubiak didn't draft an offensive skilled position until the 4th (TE), 6th (RB), and 7th (WR) rounds. Probably just a coincidence, I suppose. But, worth noting, nonetheless.

[Azazello1313]

Did they need a QB?

 

I'm confused by the Broncos selection. Cutler may be the real thing and all, like everyone says, but what's so awful with Plummer, especially with a roster so close to Championship level?

 

One bad game in January, and that's the book on Plummer?

 

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plummer is 31, and he's a good but not great QB. the backup is brad van pelt who....well let's just say we don't want him to ever see the field in a regular season game. so adding a QB was something of a priority this offseason. so you can go with a rubber band solution (trying to trade for harrington or something like that), or you can think long-term and add a guy you think can actually raise your team's level of play at the QB position in a year or two. it costs a little more, but ultimately it's a smart move, and it doesnt necessarily reflect too badly on plummer either. moving up into the top 6-8 picks, i think the price was too high to take one of the top 3 QBs. but at 11 the price was about right, especially with the javon walker trade in the works taking holmes and chad jackson out of the mix in the mid first round, they didnt have any glaring needs they needed to fill there.

 

one additional note...i LOVED the broncos last two picks...kuper and eslinger. how was eslinger still around in the 6th round?? suddenly they've got good youth and depth for the future on their interior o-line, two guys who fit in the system almost perfectly, and they did it with a 5th and a 6th round pick.

Edited May 1, 2006 by Azazello1313

[rhino]

2004: Tatum Bell, Round 2. Darius Watts, Round 2.

2002: Ashley Lelie, Round 1. Clinton Portis, Round 2.

 

That kind of makes the rest of the post moot.

 

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I'm thinking that TBell and CPortis are exceptions to the DEN rule. I could be wrong here, and reading too much into it. But, their RB history outweighs the TBell and CPortis picks -- TDavis, OGary, MAnderson, LT Levine, CAlexander, CHoward, QGriffin, AGalloway, BMiree.

 

I'm also thinking that the ALelie and DWatts were desparation picks, after years of failing to find a WR gem late in the draft. Again, exceptions to the DEN rule, not their norm over the past 11 yrs.

 

The red flag that hit me was their 2nd round pick on a TE. They have NEVER used a pick higher than the 6th round during the Kubiak era -- 11 yrs. And they were able to coach them up. If they still have the ability to do that, then why waste a 2nd round pick on a TE, if you can get a cheaper one in the later rounds and get the same or better production?

 

Again, I'm probably reading too much into this. Just seemed to be too may coincidences to me, to be just a coincidence.

[godtomsatan]

plummer is 31, and he's a good but not great QB.  the backup is brad van pelt who....well let's just say we don't want him to ever see the field in a regular season game.  so adding a QB was something of a priority this offseason.  so you can go with a rubber band solution (trying to trade for harrington or something like that), or you can think long-term and add a guy you think can actually raise your team's level of play at the QB position in a year or two.  it costs a little more, but ultimately it's a smart move, and it doesnt necessarily reflect too badly on plummer either. 

 

 

I understand all that, and makes great sense and is quite aggressive. However, this isn't a "building" team like Arizona, that is just NOW getting some pieces in place so that in two years, they are primed.

 

This Denver team is loaded now and a bad quarter from being AFC Champs. So why address an area for the future, when there had to have been something available to make them better in '06. Especially with the addition of Walker later in the day....

 

Not that it can't be written off as a bad move, but just not what I would think they needed.

[Azazello1313]

I'm probably reading too much into this.

 

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yup. you make it sound like, back when kubiak was around....the broncos just traded all of their picks for the entire 6th round and turned them all into gems. "coached em up". when in reality i think they've used more high picks on offense than defense in the last several years. i think you're just looking for new inventive ways to blow smoke up kube's ass now that he's your boy.

[rhino]

i think you're just looking for new inventive ways to blow smoke up kube's ass now that he's your boy.

 

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Hehe. Maybe, but I'm still trying to figure out my HOU Texans. Casserly is gone, but he's allowed to influence this year's draft. We pass on the consensus #1 pick of Reggie Bush, and take DE Mario Williams. We pass on OT Justice at 2.01 and take a OLB, Ryans. Jeb Putzier comes over from DEN, but then HOU takes a TE at 4.01, where I thought a WR could come in handy, since there's a HUGH drop-off in WR talent after AJohnson and EMoulds. I like Kubiak, but I'm not sold on a lot of the staff he brought with him -- a lot of question marks, imho. At the same time, one has to wonder if Kubiak can think outside the Shanahan box.

 

One has to admit though, that HOU's draft looked an awful like DEN's drafts in the past. And DEN's 2006 draft broke their own mold.

 

The ass-smoke blowing are the guys on the local ESPN radio station (560 AM). "They must really see something in QB Jay Cutler since they haven't chosen a QB in the first round since Tommy Maddox (pre-Shanahan)." And "They must really see something in TE Tony Scheffler because they haven't drafted a TE higher than the 6th round during the Shanahan era." Or is it because they lost their confidence in finding late-round gems?

[juanruiz13]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...raft/index.html

 

 

The Mike Shanahan-Jay Cutler marriage is going to be one of those 15-year unions. I said to Shanahan Sunday night: "If Cutler's right when he says he hasn't talked to you guys for two months, how in the world did you end up taking him with the 11th pick in the draft?'' Shanahan laughed.

 

"The first time I talked to him was yesterday, after the pick, and we met here today,''' Shanahan said from Denver. "I studied him and watched him and looked at the draft board and didn't say very much to anyone. I said, 'I'm just going to shut up and hope it works out.' I've been in this thing long enough. You don't give anyone your hand. Don't give anyone an idea, or it's out very quickly. Keep it to yourself.

 

"I did call [Tennessee Titans coach] Jeff Fisher, who I'm very close to, and I know Jeff to a T, and I just said to him, 'Give me Cutler's good points and bad points.' And he said, 'Mike, there are no bad points.' Jeff knows football players. And I thought, if I could get up there around 11, I'm going to try to get him. When I really got to thinking about it, I asked myself, 'How often am I ever going to have the chance to do something like this again, to get a guy like this?' Maybe never.''

 

But, I said to Shanahan, 'You have never spoken to the man. How can you pick a guy who is a total stranger?'

 

"Well, you watch his interviews on tape, and you feel you know the guy,'' Shanahan said. "You pick up the phone and talk to him or his agent, and all of a sudden it's going to get out, and I just couldn't risk that.''

 

I also wondered, as does all of Colorado, about the psyche of Jake Plummer after the move.

 

"Haven't talked to him yet,'' said Shanahan. "The draft just ended. We'll talk. But if you're a guy who's afraid of competition, you're not made of the right stuff. A guy's got to compete and win the job.''

 

And one final note from Shanahan about Laurence Maroney. "I loved him,'' Shanahan said. "I think the Patriots got a steal. An absolute steal. I think he's going to be the best back in the league.''

 

Whoa!

Edited May 1, 2006 by juanruiz13

[NAUgrad]

Certainly this draft was a little bit of a surprise for Denver fans, as we expected Shanny to focus only on players that will help the team win now. Although I think some of that happened, (Walker, Scheffer) it certainly looks like the 1st round pick says were really looking at the future.

 

It seems to me, that really the only position Denver has been able to "coach up" on a consistent basis is the O-line and maybe RB. I think Denver just realized that we take the best player available regardless of position.

 

Now having said that....even though Plummer had a good year last year, it seemed like the offense was really sort of "being careful" not to let Jake blow it. I think Shanny thinks that you can't survive long if you have to protect your QB from mistakes, hence the Cutler pick.

[Azazello1313]

The ass-smoke blowing are the guys on the local ESPN radio station (560 AM).  "They must really see something in QB Jay Cutler since they haven't chosen a QB in the first round since Tommy Maddox (pre-Shanahan)."  And "They must really see something in TE Tony Scheffler because they haven't drafted a TE higher than the 6th round during the Shanahan era."  Or is it because they lost their confidence in finding late-round gems?

 

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well, to turn that around...if they lost their confidence in being able to coach up late round offensive picks with kubes going to houston, why would they let a TE that had already been "coached up" go to houston for nothin? they let an established player go and replaced him with a late second round prospect from a fairly obscure mid-major school. i'd say that indicates shanny still has every confidence in the world of being able to coach up the young players.

 

also, look at their RB stable for this year...a second round pick (bell), and two guys (dayne and cobbs) they picked up off the trash heap. then there's the still-ongoing cleveland browns d-line reclamation project. i think they still have TONS of confidence in their ability to get the most out of players other teams don't value as much.

[rhino]

Certainly this draft was a little bit of a surprise for Denver fans, as we expected Shanny to focus only on players that will help the team win now.  Although I think some of that happened, (Walker, Scheffer) it certainly looks like the 1st round pick says were really looking at the future.

 

It seems to me, that really the only position Denver has been able to "coach up" on a consistent basis is the O-line and maybe RB.  I think Denver just realized that we take the best player available regardless of position.

 

Now having said that....even though Plummer had a good year last year, it seemed like the offense was really sort of "being careful" not to let Jake blow it.  I think Shanny thinks that you can't survive long if you have to protect your QB from mistakes, hence the Cutler pick.

 

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nod. well said.

[rhino]

well, to turn that around...if they lost their confidence in being able to coach up late round offensive picks with kubes going to houston, why would they let a TE that had already been "coached up" go to houston for nothin?  they let an established player go and replaced him with a late second round prospect from a fairly obscure mid-major school.  i'd say that indicates shanny still has every confidence in the world of being able to coach up the young players.

 

also, look at their RB stable for this year...a second round pick (bell), and two guys (dayne and cobbs) they picked up off the trash heap.  then there's the still-ongoing cleveland browns d-line reclamation project.  i think they still have TONS of confidence in their ability to get the most out of players other teams don't value as much.

 

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Good points. But, allow me to "turn it around".

 

they let an established player 6th round pick go and replaced him with a late more expensive second round prospect from a fairly obscure mid-major school.

[Avernus]

they took....both of the WR's I wanted here in Philly...

 

Javon Walker

Brandon Marshall...the only WR I wanted them to draft...

 

funny how they went to the same team...just not here..

[CrazedBronco]

I'm thinking that TBell and CPortis are exceptions to the DEN rule.  I could be wrong here, and reading too much into it.  But, their RB history outweighs the TBell and CPortis picks -- TDavis, OGary, MAnderson, LT Levine, CAlexander, CHoward, QGriffin, AGalloway, BMiree.

 

I'm also thinking that the ALelie and DWatts were desparation picks, after years of failing to find a WR gem late in the draft.  Again, exceptions to the DEN rule, not their norm over the past 11 yrs.

 

The red flag that hit me was their 2nd round pick on a TE.  They have NEVER used a pick higher than the 6th round during the Kubiak era -- 11 yrs.  And they were able to coach them up.  If they still have the ability to do that, then why waste a 2nd round pick on a TE, if you can get a cheaper one in the later rounds and get the same or better production?

 

Again, I'm probably reading too much into this.  Just seemed to be too may coincidences to me, to be just a coincidence.

 

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Ummmm they had Shannon Sharpe from 1991 - 2003. They probably didn't need to pick up a TE high since they had a future hall-a-famer.

 

Crazed Bronco

[rhino]

Ummmm they had Shannon Sharpe from 1991 - 2003.  They probably didn't need to pick up a TE high since they had a future hall-a-famer.

 

Crazed Bronco

 

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I thought the same thing before I posted above. But, do you recall Shannon Sharpe playing at BAL at all?

 

Shannon Sharpe:

1999, DEN, 5 games

2000, BAL

2001, BAL

 

So, merging DEN's TE draft with Sharpe's absence...

 

1999, DClark (6th rd), Billy Miller (7th), Justin Swift (7th)

1999, SSharpe plays 5 games only.

 

2000, Sharpe goes to BAL. DEN drafts no TEs. (Confident they can coach up the low-round TEs they already have?)

 

2001, Sharpe stays in BAL. DEN drafts no TEs. (Confident they can coach up the low-round TEs they already have?)

 

2002, Sharpe returns to DEN. DEN drafts Jeb Putzier (6th rd).

 

2003, Sharpe stays in DEN. DEN drafts no TEs.

 

2004, Sharpe retires. DEN drafts no TEs. (Confident they can continue to coach up... [you get the picture])

 

2005, Sharpe stays retired. DEN drafts no TEs.

 

Thus, I don't think it's about Sharpe. In fact, when Sharpe was not with DEN, DEN didn't even draft a TE (until 2006)!

[Trots]

2 things:

1 Van Pelt has skills

2 Cutler = Tommy Maddox ?

[Avernus]

2 things:

1 Van Pelt has skills

2 Cutler = Tommy Maddox ?

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we're talking 2 different era's here...and 2 different teams...

 

QB's bust for completely different reasons nowadays...and they're starting to figure out why and how this process occurs..