godtomsatan Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 PM me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 (edited) based on what ? what are you trying to achieve? Edited May 17, 2006 by theeohiostate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippy Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 Give a little more of what you are thinking there, godtomsatan. I do a lot of my own projections each year but I have learned how to really cut back on the work that I put into it. Let us know more of what you are talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 yeah, I'm a numbers guy. Let me hear youir thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 17, 2006 Author Share Posted May 17, 2006 (edited) Essentially, I've been working with a power rankings thing for the purposes of gambling. Tends to work pretty well in certain situations, and figuring out those situations is part of the fun. The PR are based on the Average Margin of Victory each team has. Essentially, take the point differential and divide it by # of games and you get a base figure. Take that same base figure of all your opponents and average it out, that's your 'strength of schedule' component. Take the SOS average and add it to your base PR, and you have a power ranking. Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn, who came up with this formula, in The Hidden Game of Football take it out 5 iterations (or until the numbers start rounding out). I do mine with a variation that includes home/away and playing surface. Anyway, I just had the brilliant idea of applying this to an individual performance level. For instance, Player X is on Team Y up against Team Z. Team Y has produced A amount of yards/game (or points, or whathaveyou) against Opponents, who have an average of allowing B yards/game. Same knowledge of Team Z would be available. Compare/Combine and see what shakes down. My guess is that this would produce some interesting angles, such as teams that have weaknesses in certain areas that don't necessarily show up on paper. I guess the most glaring example is the TE position. Many TEs get looks because the QBs are inexperienced and don't look to the side long enough in the pocket, or don't have the timing aspect down with their WR. That's beside the point, because certain QBs statistically rely on more their TE. Also, just as important in that equation is that there are also defenses that, for personnel or gameplan reasons, just can't/don't contain the TE. Well, what about this same kind of information for #2 WRs? Or ROLBs, RB receiving, kick returns, FS/SS play, etc.? More thoughts? Edited May 17, 2006 by godtomsatan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 I pick players from teams with pretty helmets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyalboyd Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 I pick players from teams with pretty helmets. 1472962[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhino Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 I pick players from teams with pretty helmets. 1472962[/snapback] There's an opening in OUTRAGED! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 There's an opening in OUTRAGED! 1472985[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 Oof. Over my head, but I like how you're thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 PM sent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizards Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 Not a bad idea....BUT...you have so many defensive formations for a team and a team also reviews and adjusts weekly...that has to be factored in and the error margin could be too great for your idea to have teeth... Could develop it based on last year and see how it gels.....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nogohawk Posted May 17, 2006 Share Posted May 17, 2006 aka Blitz - Pick the players that score the most points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 17, 2006 Author Share Posted May 17, 2006 Not a bad idea....BUT...you have so many defensive formations for a team and a team also reviews and adjusts weekly...that has to be factored in and the error margin could be too great for your idea to have teeth... Could develop it based on last year and see how it gels.....? 1473151[/snapback] Exactly the problems. I mean, 4-3 vs. 3-4, nickel/dime packages, in-game injuries, turnovers, leads, etc.. So many variables that may or may not produce valid info. I'm going to come up with something a little more in depth soon....see what y'all think of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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