Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 (edited) Fantasy football is all about value. Period. Anyone can draft LJ, LT2, and T.O., and have a nice season, but drafts don't work that way. It's usually the people who get the most value at the 3rd-10th round draft spots who end up finishing towards the top. With that said, I'd like to start a few discussion threads for value players going into this season. I play mainly in keeper/dynasty type leagues, so I have the most interest in the younger guys who may turn out to be blue-chippers down the road. But I'm happy to discuss some other value guys in here as well (every year, there are always a couple really old dudes who come out with a monster season after you thought they were washed up -- the Kennison, Galloway, Rod Smith -types). Anyway, I'll start the first post with one of my favorite young value players coming into this season at WR: Michael Clayton Michael Clayton, WR TB News: The Tampa Tribune reports that third-year receiver Michael Clayton has made good on a promise to head coach Jon Gruden to work hard this offseason and get into shape for the 2006 season, something he didn’t do before his disappointing 2005 campaign. Clayton is noticeably thinner, has a new approach to the game and has even been spotted as the only player working out at the Bucs’ facilites at times. "We expect a lot of him, obviously," Gruden said. "It's important to him. He does look good, and hopefully he looks great soon." Analysis: This is very encouraging news for those looking to find sleeper receivers in Fantasy drafts this summer. Clayton had a monster rookie year but fizzled in his second season. He will benefit from having some coverage rolled away from him (and rolled to Joey Galloway) to start the year. Consider Clayton with a middle- to late-round pick, and hope he performs well this preseason. Some things I like about Clayton most: 1. He is young, talented, and has DONE IT BEFORE. That's rare for the young WR value types. Most WRs don't come to life until their magical third season. But Clayton had a monster season as a rookie. 2. He was hurt last year, and it showed. 372 yards and zero touchdowns. Ouch. That's terrible news for folks who drafted him last year, but awesome news for people looking to get him at a steal price this year. 3. That pass offense is a big pie. Clayton stunk it up last year, but Galloway had a monster season out of nowhere. At age 35, Galloway is over the hill and ready to crumble any day now. That's a lot of opportunity for a young guy to step in and get numbers. All in all, I think Clayton may be my favorite WR value play this season, particularly in dynasty/keeper leagues. Edited May 19, 2006 by Otis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 My next selection: Mike Williams (aka "BMW") Come on. This isn't just a first round talent. This is a TOP TEN talent. And just a year ago. I have no problem with a kid getting off to a slow start at the WR position. It usually takes several years for a receiver to get into a groove and get caught up with NFL game speeds. I will give even more leeway in this respect to a kid who was forced to miss his final college season. He was a monster in college. He is big and athletic and can come over the middle. Last year was a learning experience and he has the potential to bounce back. Also, consider the addition of Mike Martz, a guy who has built offenses in the past that produce 1, 2 or even 3 fantasy-valuable wide recievers. As a potential #2 in that offense, Williams has upside galore. He also can be had DIRT CHEAP right now. BUY all the way. Additionally, the Detroit News is already reporting some promising info on BMW: WR Mike Williams already is about 10 pounds less than his rookie playing weight of 234 pounds. Williams said he has changed his eating habits and been more concerned with conditioning. He feels better at a lower weight. "Heck yeah, definitely," Williams said. "You cut better. You're more fluid." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 (edited) Problem with Clayton has less to do with Clayton and more to do with the guy getting him the ball, that'd be my concern. I think he's a talented WR, but just like Chambers in MIA previously, won't post numbers because of the QB situation. Edited May 19, 2006 by Hugh 0ne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Dude, you didn't just pick a DET player, did you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpin Johnies Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 I like the Clayton call Otis. Galloway saw plenty of action last season, I think it was more of a Clayton problem opposed to a Simms/Griese problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 Some other guys I like as value plays right now (without any particular analysis, I'm feeling lazy): Darrel Jackson Andre Johnson The JAX WRs (assuming you pick the right one -- I like Matt Jones) Muhsin Muhammed Koren Robinson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 It's usually the people who get the most value at the 3rd-10th round draft spots who end up finishing towards the top. 1477778[/snapback] Clayton & Williams? I wouldn't mind grabbing either in the late rounds and hoping as I agree each may pan out to be nice value -- but rounds 3-6? Nope. Got other folks to grab. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 Clayton & Williams? I wouldn't mind grabbing either in the late rounds and hoping as I agree each may pan out to be nice value -- but rounds 3-6? Nope. Got other folks to grab. 1477802[/snapback] I'm obviously not suggesting you take BMW in the third. The point is that these are guys who I think will drop well into later rounds. My statements regarding rounds 3-10 are just a general observation that it's not what you do with your first pick that wins fantasy, it's what you do with the last. Three guys I targeted HARD in all my leagues across the board last year were Anquan Boldin, LJ, and Willie Parker. All value plays where I got them, but they were what made the difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaw23 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 I like the Clayton call Otis. Galloway saw plenty of action last season, I think it was more of a Clayton problem opposed to a Simms/Griese problem. 1477793[/snapback] +1 Definitely a good call on Clayton. I love him this year as a value WR. I would look for similiar numbers to what Galloway put up last year. I will definitely be targeting him in all my drafts. M. Williams certainly has the talent but I don't know if it will be yet this year that he breaks out. With R. Williams still there and have a new QB this year and a new offensive scheme. It could take a year for Mike to get adjusted and then watch out next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 +1 Definitely a good call on Clayton. I love him this year as a value WR. I would look for similiar numbers to what Galloway put up last year. I will definitely be targeting him in all my drafts. M. Williams certainly has the talent but I don't know if it will be yet this year that he breaks out. With R. Williams still there and have a new QB this year and a new offensive scheme. It could take a year for Mike to get adjusted and then watch out next year. 1477812[/snapback] Agree completely that BMW may be a year (or even two) away from peaking. That said, he looks like an absolute steal right now, so he is worth rolling the dice on (especially in dynasty leagues). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Minnesota's wideouts should be cheap and productive. Koren Robinson and Troy Williamson could end up being very decent value picks as #3 WR's this season (possibly #2's) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 Minnesota's wideouts should be cheap and productive. Koren Robinson and Troy Williamson could end up being very decent value picks as #3 WR's this season (possibly #2's) 1477940[/snapback] Agreed, particularly regarding K-Rob, although I do think that offense is now in shambles. However, remember that K-Rob was previously a 1200 yard receiver and is still one solid athlete (although a bit screwed up in the head, but perhaps he's grown out of that phase). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Some other guys I like as value plays right now (without any particular analysis, I'm feeling lazy): Darrel Jackson Andre Johnson The JAX WRs (assuming you pick the right one -- I like Matt Jones) Muhsin Muhammed Koren Robinson 1477800[/snapback] I own Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Muhsin and KRob in the same dynasty league and none are higher than 5th on my depth chart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 I own Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Muhsin and KRob in the same dynasty league and none are higher than 5th on my depth chart. 1477996[/snapback] Then you're in good shape in my book Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Then you're in good shape in my book 1478001[/snapback] Other WRs include: Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Jerry Porter, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Brown, Eric Parker, Travis Taylor and Samie Parker. We start 1-2 RBs, 3-5 WRs and 1-2 TEs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Eric Moulds will be cheap this year too... he might make a decent value pick in the later rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 RE: Clayton- He had a bad knee last year, and recently spoke about how he should have gotten it scoped before the 2005 regular season. As soon as 2005 ended, he got the knee worked on. Now, he's shed a few pounds, and looks to me like he's ready to be a force again.... he's my sleeper WR to get into the top ten. That isn't my projection, just my upside for him. I'll be surprised if he isn't top 20 this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AquaticRay Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 April 6, 2006 3:16 PM Two Peas in a Pod Lions beat guy Tom Kowalski writes: "It's just three weeks into the 14-week off-season workout program, but sources say receivers Charles Rogers and Mike Williams have not impressed the new coaching staff. Rogers has been attending the workouts but the coaches have been underwhelmed by his attitude and focus and the rumors of his hard-partying lifestyle won't go away. As for Williams, he didn't show up for any of the workouts last week. His agent said he left because of a family matter. Williams, who is overweight and out of shape, attended the first four workouts and then took 10 days off before returning on Monday." Conflicting info on Mike. Will wait to see which is right. I like m. Clayton. D-Jax still has Knee issues - not even sure he will play this season. Other 4 are talented underachievers. I like K-rob the best; since he has turned his life around from the reports I've seen and AJ next. He has the talent, I like what his team has done; now he has to step up. Matt Jones should develop into a fine WR. Hope for late this season but expect a year away. Do not like Musha situation. Good WR on louzy Offensive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 April 6, 2006 3:16 PM Two Peas in a Pod Lions beat guy Tom Kowalski writes: "It's just three weeks into the 14-week off-season workout program, but sources say receivers Charles Rogers and Mike Williams have not impressed the new coaching staff. Rogers has been attending the workouts but the coaches have been underwhelmed by his attitude and focus and the rumors of his hard-partying lifestyle won't go away. As for Williams, he didn't show up for any of the workouts last week. His agent said he left because of a family matter. Williams, who is overweight and out of shape, attended the first four workouts and then took 10 days off before returning on Monday." Conflicting info on Mike. Will wait to see which is right. I like m. Clayton. D-Jax still has Knee issues - not even sure he will play this season. Other 4 are talented underachievers. I like K-rob the best; since he has turned his life around from the reports I've seen and AJ next. He has the talent, I like what his team has done; now he has to step up. Matt Jones should develop into a fine WR. Hope for late this season but expect a year away. Do not like Musha situation. Good WR on louzy Offensive. 1478087[/snapback] Your info on BMW is a month and a half old. Recent reports say he looks leaner and is in better condition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AquaticRay Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Yes but not that the coaches are now inpressed with him. Right now they are reporting C Bradford is the WR2 for Detroit ahead of him. "Mike's in a battle with Charles Rogers and Corey Bradford for the #2 WR spot, a battle we hear is being won by Bradford, believe it or not. You also can't count out free-agent WR Az-Zahir Hakim (Saints), who almost signed with Arizona but it fell through. Lions OC Mike Martz is lobbying to sign the ex-Rams speedster. After Roy Williams this WR corps could be a committee scenario that's best avoided until the late rounds." from an article this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 Yes but not that the coaches are now inpressed with him. Right now they are reporting C Bradford is the WR2 for Detroit ahead of him. "Mike's in a battle with Charles Rogers and Corey Bradford for the #2 WR spot, a battle we hear is being won by Bradford, believe it or not. You also can't count out free-agent WR Az-Zahir Hakim (Saints), who almost signed with Arizona but it fell through. Lions OC Mike Martz is lobbying to sign the ex-Rams speedster. After Roy Williams this WR corps could be a committee scenario that's best avoided until the late rounds." from an article this week 1478114[/snapback] Could be, but Mike Williams was drafted in the top-10 in the NFL draft less than a year ago. There are busts everywhere, but that's a guy I want to take a crack on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 IMHO, wrong Clayton if McNair is a Raven. He'll be more of a value pick than your Clayton. I'm pretty sure I'm starting to remember you now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 IMHO, wrong Clayton if McNair is a Raven. He'll be more of a value pick than your Clayton. I'm pretty sure I'm starting to remember you now. 1478194[/snapback] We can add Mark Clayton to the list. I don't think he'll match Mike's numbers, though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 I don't think he'll match Mike's numbers, though... 1478198[/snapback] You are probably right but he'll be a nice value pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 I'm obviously not suggesting you take BMW in the third. The point is that these are guys who I think will drop well into later rounds. My statements regarding rounds 3-10 are just a general observation that it's not what you do with your first pick that wins fantasy, it's what you do with the last. Three guys I targeted HARD in all my leagues across the board last year were Anquan Boldin, LJ, and Willie Parker. All value plays where I got them, but they were what made the difference. 1477808[/snapback] Coherent. Good thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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