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IDP Situation Fluid


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Having completed one, and half way through another dynasty IDP rookie draft, I'm left with some thoughts.

 

In the wake of the Giants talking about using Kiwanuka at LB, I took another look at IDP's and what their value is, or what it should be.

 

This is something I see as a general trend in NFL defensive philosophies. More and more teams use elements of the 3-4 and 4-3. They are taking DE's like Tuck, and installing them as down tackles on passing downs. Drafting tweeners like Kiwanuka and Lawson allows the defense more flexabilty and less predictabilty. Disguising where the pass rush will come from, what LB might drop into coverage seems to be the motivational force behing what I see as an approaching defensive philosophy change in the NFL.

 

The Jets used Bryan Thomas as a down tackle last year. There is talk in KC that Hali could play the tackle spot with Hicks as the DE on passing downs. Jason Taylor gets moved around constantly in Miami. Arrington may fill that role for the Giants this year. I have a sneaking suspicion that Vilma my be used that way this year, albeit in a more limited way.

 

How this trend affects the value of the players involved is still undecided, at least as far as I can discern. It's a copy cat league, and I see this as an emerging trend. For a lot of teams, the days of the 3 down MLB may be numbered.

 

For dynasty IDP leagues, I see it as a conundrum of sorts. My leagues use contracts, and assigning how many years to each player on defense is getting trickier to do with any certainty or security. Defensive players' roles in these schemes are changing, making it more unpredictable as to how it might affect any individual player's value. The 3-4 may work great in the NFL, but it's a b*tch for IDP players. Even MFL doesn't have a position listed that Suggs fits into. Maybe a new "rush linebacker" position will need to be added to IDP rules down the road.

 

I think this "fluidity" lessens the value of many IDP's. Teams that switch to the 3-4 from the 4-3 with CS changes, along with this "rotation" trend means defensive players are becoming a higher risk in the long term, meaning dynasty leagues. I see D FF points getting more spread out.

 

In contrast, offensive studs are much less likely to be hurt with coaching staff changes and offensive scheme changes. A stud RB is still going to be a stud RB.... and that's true with most QB's and WR's as well. Much less risk as opposed to IDP's. Just my thoughts on the subject..... comments?

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Exactly right. One of the main reasons its not smart to draft IDP early in Dynasty Leagues, is because they are much more affected by the scheme the team plays or position changes than say the RB or even stud WR. Nick Barnett is a prime example, he could easily be moved to strong side down the road, which will kill his fantasy value. But right now he is a top 10 fantasy LB.

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Agreed.... but, in IDP leagues, the points one can get from the defense can often spell the difference between a championship and being an also ran.

 

Defensive players are much more difficult to project, both for the coming season, and even more so for future seasons, as it relates to IDP dynasty leagues.

 

In the leagues we both share, one still has to have a formidable group of LB's and other more cursory position players, like DL's and DB's. One has to be much more on top of team situations, and coaching staff stabilty when both drafting and trading for IDP's.

 

For instance, a "stud" safety.... using the term loosley.... Eric Coleman on the Jets. Entering his third year in the NFL, after putting up good FF points, may find himself on the bench this year. Safeties are, and have been very vulnerable as to their FF value. A new coach, a switch to the cover 2.... and the stud safety turns into a JAG. That same change may boost another safety's value on the same team significantly.

 

Bottom line, in IDP, I see a "spreading out of FF point scoring" making IDP players less valuable overall, but research and knowing which players might go up and down in a given year is still key to winning a league. When you have to start 3 LB's you'd better have at least two very good ones.... which is becoming more and more difficult to project.

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Amen Rovers, nice write up....The key to IDP success other than rolling the magic 8 ball is to know what system the team uses. It is pretty safe to say all the rookies drafted were chosen because they fit, or at least the teams think they fit into what they are trying/going to use. I have no problem drafting an IDP "stud" early if he fits the scheme and was labeled a football "guy". Nose for the ball, intangeables etc, f*ck the measurables, they help, but too many playes with so called "measurables" have sh*t the bed....What you should be aware of is those teams that cleaned house. A good example that you brought up was the Vilma/Coleman issue with the Jets. New regime, new look and it appears that they do not fit initially. Tis why they went LB/S in the 3rd round (besides having needs everywhere, for future). I think Vilma could kick ass anywhere you put him but I'm not so sure about Coleman. DE/LB/S are fast becoming interchangeable positions and I do see yer point Rovers on a possible "new" position being created in FF. That is not that far off IMO. What has to be looked at now is a firm agreement with the players in yer league on what website to use to determine player position so there is absolutely no complaints. I use Ourlads in many leagues, and they seem to be on top of it, but the league has to agree and that bottom line. The nice thing about MFL (if you use it) is that you can change player positions. This is all made easier if you are a competant owner and draft/trade a solid team with backups in all the skill positions :D.......

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alot of the IDPs get good fantasy points because in reality, they suck, teams go after them like rookie corners.  It's hard to distinguish who's legit if you never get to see their games.

 

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:D

 

So, other than bad CBs, can I have another example of a great IDP who "sucks" in the real NFL?

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Now lets see you use this philosophy in one of your leagues to actually compete for the playoffs some day.  :D

 

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LOL! I was a rookie IDP'er last year, and had only one dynasty team! ..... and you were right, it takes a FF'er about a year to get the hang of playing in an IDP dynasty league. (I picked up a second team, a bad orphan around week 11 or so) Oh yeah, my record in the hanbook league was a game under .500, but I was in the top four in points scored. Overall, it wasn't bad team at all.

 

One thing I'll do is keep as many rookies on the taxi squad as possible until their roles (and point scoring) is more of a known, before I assign contract years to a player like Lawson, for instance.

 

But beyond getting an education in IDP leagues last year, this new trend is an NFL thing has definiely changed the landscape in IDP play. I think defensive players, or many of them hold even less value now than they did three years ago. These new "versatile" players also make it more difficult to assign the right position to them as well. I drafted Suggs as a DE on purpose, knowing he'd see just as much time as an LB on the field. He remained lsited as a DE all year. As a DE, he was valuable.... as an LB, he wasn't worth much. Guys like Merriman, Ware, and a bunch of the new rookies as similar in this respect, and what their listed position is can seriously change their value.... which was pretty much my point here.

 

I didn't know that a commish can change a player's position at MFL. I guess that's a good thing. The trick is in deciding what position these players should be listed under. Seems like a very gray area to me.

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Rovers you are figuring out what most of us knew 4 yrs ago when Willie McGinnest played DE, and Rosey Colvin got hurt, New England moved him to LB, but he was still eligible at DL in MFL.

 

 

I am glad to see the light has finally come on, now do what I do and avoid these type of players. I dont own Merriman, Ware, or any hybrid player as they are most likely to be listed in NFL as a LB, which kills their value. I prefer traditional DE, LB and SS and will leave the rest of the guys for others to sort out. .

Edited by Sgt. Ryan
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The difference is that 4 years ago, there weren't many teams doing this. Now, there is a truckload. Miami, Dallas, Houston (till kubiak came in) have gone 3-4, but it goes beyond that. Even 4-3 teams are doing this now.... and that's what is different from 4 years ago. There are simply more teams using these hybrid players now, as compared to 4 years ago. So, it isn't so much that this was a new revalation to me, rather a clear trend in the NFL to move in this direction, which is why I started this thread.

 

Everyone knows, even IDP rookies, that DE's and LB's in the 3-4 are generally less valuable than their 4-3 counterparts...... the difference is that even the 4-3 teams are using more rotation and hybrid players.

 

I drafted Hali in DWII.... only to find out he'll likely play at tackle on passing downs, with Hicks on the outside at DE. That's sort of a fringe scheme change that I was bringing up. This more "versatile" kind of D player makes IDP that much more difficult to project.

 

Four years ago, there were a couple of teams doing this.... now, I see half the NFL gravitating this way. The number of these hybrids being drafted early has shot up dramatically. Yes, Merriman, Ware, now Tuck, Bryan Thomas, Hali, Wimbley.... the list is long. Before, it was an exception, now it's a full blown NFL trend.

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:D

 

So, other than bad CBs, can I have another example of a great IDP who "sucks" in the real NFL?

 

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foreman was the first to pop in my head

 

James Farrior

Shelton Quarles

Chris Clairborne

Danny Clark

Reggie Hayward

Madieu Williams

Michael Green

Edited by TecmoBeast
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Non CB IDP stars rom 2005 who were really pretty bad players, off the top of my head:

 

Alvin McKinley

Derrick Gibson/Reynaldo Hill

Dashon Polk

Jeff Ulbrich

Brad Kassell

Ben Taylor

 

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foreman was the first to pop in my head

 

James Farrior

Shelton Quarles

Chris Clairborne

Danny Clark

Reggie Hayward

Madieu Williams

Michael Green

 

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Uhh...what? :D

 

What are you guys using as your standard for "bad player"? Some of them didn't even have good IDP years, first of all, and the others had good IDP AND NFL years.

 

Or have you both watched tape on all those guys? :D

 

:D

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Uhh...what? :D

 

What are you guys using as your standard for "bad player"? Some of them didn't even have good IDP years, first of all, and the others had good IDP AND NFL years.

 

Or have you both watched tape on all those guys? :D

 

:D

 

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You are silly. At various times, each of the individuals I listed were performing top 20 at their position for fantasy purposes. Just which player on my list do you condier to be a "great" NFL player?

 

I agree with you that Tecmo's list is a bit silly ...

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yeah, i think those guys suck above.  that's my opinion from what i've seen of them.  SS Michael Green is a great example in 2002, the dude was like a CHI middle LB with 100 solos.  but now he is a distant memory due to his suckness

 

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Green is an excellent example, as is Ben Taylor ...

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You are silly.  At various times, each of the individuals I listed were performing top 20 at their position for fantasy purposes.  Just which player on my list do you condier to be a "great" NFL player?

 

I agree with you that Tecmo's list is a bit silly ...

 

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My point: how do you know that, while they were performing well as FF IDPs, they weren't playing well for their NFL teams?

 

Alvin McKinley -- Journeyman thrust into a new role as a 3-4 DE and still produced 5 sacks, which is very good for that position.

 

Derrick Gibson/Reynaldo Hill -- Derrick Gibson certainly hasn't played up to his 1st-round draft status, mostly because of injuries. Last year, all reports I read from Oakland were along the lines of "Gibson's having his best year, by far. Now if he could only stay healthy..." He didn't. Meanwhile, Renaldo Hill, a natural CB, was forced to play safety at 190 pounds -- and still got over 70 solos.

 

Dashon Polk -- A former 7th-round pick who certainly played better than that during his 11-game stint last year. He not only had 92 total tackles in that span, but he also had 3.5 sacks. I'd say that's better than anybody expected.

 

Jeff Ulbrich -- Any 49ers observer would tell you he's a good, solid, instinctive football player. He doesn't get a lot of sacks or INTs, but he's around the ball a whole lot.

 

Brad Kassell -- Never even close to an "IDP star," so he doesn't belong on this list (in his best year, 2004, he didn't even crack the top 30 LBs in the leagues we share).

 

Ben Taylor -- I saw this guy play plenty last year, since he was on my GMX team and my buddy is a big Browns fan. He reminds me a lot of Ulbrich, actually. He knows how to find the ball-carrier and tackle him, but that's about the only thing he does well. There are a ton of NFL linebackers like that -- guys who just know how to end the play.

 

 

I couldn't tell you what actual coaches thought of all those guys, but it's my belief that guys who rack up tackles (i.e. productive IDPs) are doing their jobs in the NFL. If you're making a tackle on a play, you can't be doing a whole lot wrong. Maybe if it's 3rd-and-1 and you tackle the runner falling backward and allow the first down, yeah -- you f'ed up. Otherwise, there's a reason the guy is making tackles: because he beat the rest of his teammates to the ball.

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