Avernus Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 Man, the guy you traded with probably hates you to this day. big time....this was right before the trade deadline and then Brown went down again 2 weeks later...he just had a big game...so I moved him... that guy lost the 1st round of the playoffs and I had LT2 along with Droughns/MBennett who was killing it late in PPR leagues... I took that league BTW... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 somehow I have been drinking the SJax koolaid for no apparent reason... You're probably drinking the SJax kool-aid because; A.) Martz and his love affair with the passing game to the exclusion of the running game, is now history. & B.) Looks like Faulk will retire and even if he doesn't, exactly how much can he really play / contribute on those knees? Dude is pretty much running with bone on bone now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 You're probably drinking the SJax kool-aid because; A.) Martz and his love affair with the passing game to the exclusion of the running game, is now history. & B.) Looks like Faulk will retire and even if he doesn't, exactly how much can he really play / contribute on those knees? Dude is pretty much running with bone on bone now. agreed...the new coaching change is part of it...but Faulk wasn't much of a factor last season except when SJax was really hurting....and even then, Faulk wasn't doing much... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 agreed...the new coaching change is part of it...but Faulk wasn't much of a factor last season except when SJax was really hurting....and even then, Faulk wasn't doing much... In the passing game, the Rams targeted their RB's 111 times last year, of which Faulk was the target approx 50% of the time. As tomfin2000 pointed out, no Faulk bumps SJax substantially in PPR leagues, even with Fisher there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 In the passing game, the Rams targeted their RB's 111 times last year, of which Faulk was the target approx 50% of the time. As tomfin2000 pointed out, no Faulk bumps SJax substantially in PPR leagues, even with Fisher there. if they used him like the Eagles use Westy, but running the ball 15-20 times...I'd be a fan of that... but with his running style...it leaves him open for defenders to tee off on him... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 10, 2006 Share Posted June 10, 2006 if they used him like the Eagles use Westy, but running the ball 15-20 times...I'd be a fan of that... but with his running style...it leaves him open for defenders to tee off on him... My post was really addressed towards you saying Faulk had no impact on SJax's numbers last year. While that was true in the running game, Faulk definitely impacted SJax in the passing game to the tune of a 50 / 50 split in receptions. There is no doubt that the absence of Faulk would likely be a + for SJax in the passing game. Last year the Dolphins RB's had 87 targets in the passing game. If Linehan only calls that many pass plays to the Rams RB's, I predict about a 75 to 25 split going to SJax...if Faulk is out of the picture. That's about 66 targets for SJax, compared to the 55 targets he got last year. He converts at a 78% clip, which projects to approx 52 receptions this up coming season vs the 43 receptions he had last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 My post was really addressed towards you saying Faulk had no impact on SJax's numbers last year. While that was true in the running game, Faulk definitely impacted SJax in the passing game to the tune of a 50 / 50 split in receptions. There is no doubt that the absence of Faulk would likely be a + for SJax in the passing game. Last year the Dolphins RB's had 87 targets in the passing game. If Linehan only calls that many pass plays to the Rams RB's, I predict about a 75 to 25 split going to SJax...if Faulk is out of the picture. That's about 66 targets for SJax, compared to the 55 targets he got last year. He converts at a 78% clip, which projects to approx 52 receptions this up coming season vs the 43 receptions he had last year. yeah I see more running and less throwing... they want to go away from Martz did....the way they ousted him last season basically told him to "shoo" lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 "Five times in his still fledgling NFL career, Jackson has logged 20 or more rushing attempts in a game. The results in those contests: an average of 130.6 yards per outing, 5.4 yards per carry, and five victories for the Rams. Of the team's six wins in 2005, half came in games in which Jackson was the offensive workhorse. Only once in the five contests in which Jackson got 20 carries did he fail to crack the 100-yard mark. Twice in those games, he had more than 145 yards, including a career-best 179 against Jacksonville on Oct. 30." From ESPN. Only 5 times in 2 years? That is going to change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomfin2000 Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 "Five times in his still fledgling NFL career, Jackson has logged 20 or more rushing attempts in a game. The results in those contests: an average of 130.6 yards per outing, 5.4 yards per carry, and five victories for the Rams. Of the team's six wins in 2005, half came in games in which Jackson was the offensive workhorse. Only once in the five contests in which Jackson got 20 carries did he fail to crack the 100-yard mark. Twice in those games, he had more than 145 yards, including a career-best 179 against Jacksonville on Oct. 30." From ESPN. Only 5 times in 2 years? That is going to change. Yeah, but what those stats don't tell you is that there were several games last season where the Rams tried to establish the run with Jackson, failed miserably, fell behind, and had to abandon the run in favor of the passing game. I watched just about every Rams game last season and they always tried to establish Jackson first. This season, they're going to need better blocking and Jackson is going to have to hit the hole quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 "Five times in his still fledgling NFL career, Jackson has logged 20 or more rushing attempts in a game. The results in those contests: an average of 130.6 yards per outing, 5.4 yards per carry, and five victories for the Rams. Of the team's six wins in 2005, half came in games in which Jackson was the offensive workhorse. Only once in the five contests in which Jackson got 20 carries did he fail to crack the 100-yard mark. Twice in those games, he had more than 145 yards, including a career-best 179 against Jacksonville on Oct. 30." From ESPN. Only 5 times in 2 years? That is going to change. true...the reason that he only had 5 is because their defense blows and they had to abandon the running game.... plus Martz was the coach too... but their defense wasn't exactly....decent... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 Yeah, but what those stats don't tell you is that there were several games last season where the Rams tried to establish the run with Jackson, failed miserably, fell behind, and had to abandon the run in favor of the passing game. I watched just about every Rams game last season and they always tried to establish Jackson first. This season, they're going to need better blocking and Jackson is going to have to hit the hole quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 Yeah, but what those stats don't tell you is that there were several games last season where the Rams tried to establish the run with Jackson, failed miserably, fell behind, and had to abandon the run in favor of the passing game. I watched just about every Rams game last season and they always tried to establish Jackson first. This season, they're going to need better blocking and Jackson is going to have to hit the hole quicker. I watched and saw the same thing tomfin2000. However one thing your post fails to mention, is that most of the times when SJax was unable to get the run game going, came when he was playing with the Rams #2 or even the #3 QB and opposing D's were stacking 8, sometimes even 9 in the box. It wouldn't have mattered how fast he ran up to the LOS to hit the hole because a lot of times there just wasn't a hole to hit. Now when SJax did see a hole or crease, I saw him hit it pretty quick and explode through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 (edited) Couple the coaching change with the potential retirement of Faulk, and you can't help but think Jackson's the man for the Rams this season. However, Scott Linehan has been an NFL offensive coordinator for 4 seasons, and only had one 1000 yard rusher (2002, Michael Bennett). Minnesota used a RBBC 2003-2004, and Miami did as well in 2005. One thing I want to point out is Scott Linehan's stops as offensive coordinator and rushing attempts (NFL rank in parentheses): 2005: MIA 444 (17) 2004: MIN 387 (28) 2003: MIN 493 (7) 2002: MIN 473 (8) Mike Martz just plain hates to run the football, as evidenced by St. Louis' 28+ ranking in this category over this same timeframe. So you would think that the subtraction of such a one-track mind would be a boon to the cog of the backfield. Keep in mind that Culpepper accounted for 22%, 18%, and 18% of the MIN rushing attempts respectively in 02, 03, and 04. And as a comparison, Bulger accounted for 7% of the rushes in the STL in 03 and 5% in 04. Meaning of course, that the Minnesota offense was a completely different bird than the aresenal St. Louis has at its disposal. So, I guess what I'm getting around to is that Jackson is clearly the main guy, but the evidence seems to suggest that Linehan likes to play matchups and situations with his backfield. If Faulk is out of the picture, there isn't proven commodity among the likes of Antoine Bagwell, J.D.Washington, or Fred Russell (Tony Fisher isn't change-of-pace enough from Jackson) to know which one might emerge as a TD stealer, but I think that one of them could very well become a hinderence to Jackson's overall fantasy value this year. Edited June 11, 2006 by godtomsatan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 Couple the coaching change with the potential retirement of Faulk, and you can't help but think Jackson's the man for the Rams this season. However, Scott Linehan has been an NFL offensive coordinator for 4 seasons, and only had one 1000 yard rusher (2002, Michael Bennett). Minnesota used a RBBC 2003-2004, and Miami did as well in 2005. One thing I want to point out is Scott Linehan's stops as offensive coordinator and rushing attempts (NFL rank in parentheses): 2005: MIA 444 (17) 2004: MIN 387 (28) 2003: MIN 493 (7) 2002: MIN 473 (8) Mike Martz just plain hates to run the football, as evidenced by St. Louis' 28+ ranking in this category over this same timeframe. So you would think that the subtraction of such a one-track mind would be a boon to the cog of the backfield. Keep in mind that Culpepper accounted for 22%, 18%, and 18% of the MIN rushing attempts respectively in 02, 03, and 04. And as a comparison, Bulger accounted for 7% of the rushes in the STL in 03 and 5% in 04. Meaning of course, that the Minnesota offense was a completely different bird than the aresenal St. Louis has at its disposal. So, I guess what I'm getting around to is that Jackson is clearly the main guy, but the evidence seems to suggest that Linehan likes to play matchups and situations with his backfield. If Faulk is out of the picture, there isn't proven commodity among the likes of Antoine Bagwell, J.D.Washington, or Fred Russell (Tony Fisher isn't change-of-pace enough from Jackson) to know which one might emerge as a TD stealer, but I think that one of them could very well become a hinderence to Jackson's overall fantasy value this year. well, yeah Jackson is the guy.....it's just how effective he will be... I know he'll be a good back......but the question is....how good of a #1 can he be?....I'll take him as my #2 any day of the week.....but can I feel confident with him as my #1?.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 It may be true that Martz was so pass happy that it hurt his RB's carries. at the same time with teams expecting the pass his YPC have looked much better than if he was the main option. now that he is expected to be used more he won't have the room that he had to run before. I expect no improvement out of Jackson outside of his carries(which do not count in most fantasy leagues anyways). I also do not expect Jackson's catches to increase much. Jackson just does not have the feel as a reciever out of the backfield. nothing he ever does goes smoothly. the only times receptions by him work good is when his lead blocker opens up 1 heck of a big hole for him. even then he runs through the hole with his head down not surveying the field. IMO he has horrible vision for a RB. To me he is the opposite of Tiki Barber. where Barber is always underrated year after year..he is overrated year after year. I see this year as being no different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomfin2000 Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 IMO he has horrible vision for a RB. To me he is the opposite of Tiki Barber. where Barber is always underrated year after year..he is overrated year after year. I see this year as being no different. What I'm seeing as Jackson lacking the quickness to hit the hole could very well be horrible vision instead. Whatever it is, he's looked too hesitant and/or tentative in the backfield and that makes me nervous. I'm glad I'm not the only one that sees it. The bottom line is that I agree with Avernus: I'll take Jackson as my RB2 any day of the week (which is what he was on my squad last year), but as a RB1, he makes me VERY nervous. Of course just about everyone outside of LT2, LJ, SA, and Tiki make me nervous as a RB1 including Portis and Edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 11, 2006 Share Posted June 11, 2006 What I'm seeing as Jackson lacking the quickness to hit the hole could very well be horrible vision instead. Whatever it is, he's looked too hesitant and/or tentative in the backfield and that makes me nervous. I'm glad I'm not the only one that sees it. The bottom line is that I agree with Avernus: I'll take Jackson as my RB2 any day of the week (which is what he was on my squad last year), but as a RB1, he makes me VERY nervous. Of course just about everyone outside of LT2, LJ, SA, and Tiki make me nervous as a RB1 including Portis and Edge. I'd take Portis as a #1...along with Caddy and maybe Brown..... CTaylor will bee seen as a possible #1 in hindsight after the season...but you can't have the foresight to make such a decision....especially with him slipping so far in recent mocks..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 12, 2006 Share Posted June 12, 2006 It may be true that Martz was so pass happy that it hurt his RB's carries. at the same time with teams expecting the pass his YPC have looked much better than if he was the main option. now that he is expected to be used more he won't have the room that he had to run before. I expect no improvement out of Jackson outside of his carries(which do not count in most fantasy leagues anyways). I also do not expect Jackson's catches to increase much. Jackson just does not have the feel as a reciever out of the backfield. nothing he ever does goes smoothly. the only times receptions by him work good is when his lead blocker opens up 1 heck of a big hole for him. even then he runs through the hole with his head down not surveying the field. IMO he has horrible vision for a RB. To me he is the opposite of Tiki Barber. where Barber is always underrated year after year..he is overrated year after year. I see this year as being no different. Wow this post is bad. SJax caught a ton of flares out to the right or left with no lead blocker in front. He had to make the first tackler miss on his own, before getting some downfield blocking from his WR's. Once loose in the secondary & coming up on some poor little DB, that's when you might see him lower his head and bulldoze the DB. He was very good at taking nothing little flares and turning them into good yardage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted June 12, 2006 Share Posted June 12, 2006 (edited) Couple the coaching change with the potential retirement of Faulk, and you can't help but think Jackson's the man for the Rams this season. However, Scott Linehan has been an NFL offensive coordinator for 4 seasons, and only had one 1000 yard rusher (2002, Michael Bennett). Minnesota used a RBBC 2003-2004, and Miami did as well in 2005. One thing I want to point out is Scott Linehan's stops as offensive coordinator and rushing attempts (NFL rank in parentheses): 2005: MIA 444 (17) 2004: MIN 387 (28) 2003: MIN 493 (7) 2002: MIN 473 (8) Mike Martz just plain hates to run the football, as evidenced by St. Louis' 28+ ranking in this category over this same timeframe. So you would think that the subtraction of such a one-track mind would be a boon to the cog of the backfield. Keep in mind that Culpepper accounted for 22%, 18%, and 18% of the MIN rushing attempts respectively in 02, 03, and 04. And as a comparison, Bulger accounted for 7% of the rushes in the STL in 03 and 5% in 04. Meaning of course, that the Minnesota offense was a completely different bird than the aresenal St. Louis has at its disposal. So, I guess what I'm getting around to is that Jackson is clearly the main guy, but the evidence seems to suggest that Linehan likes to play matchups and situations with his backfield. If Faulk is out of the picture, there isn't proven commodity among the likes of Antoine Bagwell, J.D.Washington, or Fred Russell (Tony Fisher isn't change-of-pace enough from Jackson) to know which one might emerge as a TD stealer, but I think that one of them could very well become a hinderence to Jackson's overall fantasy value this year. I came to a similar conclusion a few days ago. Obviously SJax still has nice keeper/borderline #1 RB potential, but I don't know that it the record shows Linehan is that great of a boon to the run game; obviously moreso than Martz is, but beyond that Edited June 12, 2006 by Chavez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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