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Let's not forget that LJ's supporting cast are all senior citizens and he lost blocking FB Tony Richardson. I personally agree with the Swammi and his concerns with LJ. My first pick would be LT2, but that's just me.

Edited by Brentastic
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Its the offense in KC that made the RB. Priest was good but the scheme and blocking was better. Johnson is pretty good but it was the offense. If Priest was that good he'd of been the man in Baltimore. If LJ was THAT good he'd have been higher than a late first round pick.

 

The HC is gone. The OC is gone. Too many unknowns with Herm at the helm. LJ will do well and is definitely top 3, but I don't expect him to do what he did last year. And God help him once that O-line starts to show its age.

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You guys make it sound like he's not even top 10. Herm loves to run the football. The coaching change will not affect LJ at all! The age of the team I'll listen too, but not the coaching change. LJ may not get 2,000 yds this season, but I'd be surprised if he didn't get 1,700 and close to 20 td's.

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You guys make it sound like he's not even top 10. Herm loves to run the football. The coaching change will not affect LJ at all! The age of the team I'll listen too, but not the coaching change. LJ may not get 2,000 yds this season, but I'd be surprised if he didn't get 1,700 and close to 20 td's.

 

 

I can see that. but "close to 20 TDs" may only be good for 3rd behind LT and SA. I think LJ average per carry will come down under Herm. He'll get his carries and yards but we'll see if he has the same huge holes to run through with the new offense.

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You guys make it sound like he's not even top 10. Herm loves to run the football. The coaching change will not affect LJ at all! The age of the team I'll listen too, but not the coaching change. LJ may not get 2,000 yds this season, but I'd be surprised if he didn't get 1,700 and close to 20 td's.

 

 

I think this has just been a long offseason and people forget the highlight reels he put up the past 2 years...

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I wouldnt tell people i made that deal. That deal sucks bad for you. You got a veteran plodder behind a ho-hum O-Line in James, you got a dinged up time-sharer for a bad team in Deuce McAllister, Moulds is beyond junk, and Chris Henry will be wearing prison orange by the end of the pre season.

While Larry has some risk about him (aging offense, lost their FB, new coaching), that stuff you got for him is junk, nice trade :D

 

 

Considering MPulera's take on the trade, I now fully expect LJ to flop and I'm going to acquire Edge, DMac, Moulds, and Henry in as many leagues as I can.

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I can see that. but "close to 20 TDs" may only be good for 3rd behind LT and SA. I think LJ average per carry will come down under Herm. He'll get his carries and yards but we'll see if he has the same huge holes to run through with the new offense.

 

Everything out of Arrowhead says they're running the same offense. I'm not 100% sure I buy it, but that's what they're saying.

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I wouldnt tell people i made that deal. That deal sucks bad for you. You got a veteran plodder behind a ho-hum O-Line in James, you got a dinged up time-sharer for a bad team in Deuce McAllister, Moulds is beyond junk, and Chris Henry will be wearing prison orange by the end of the pre season.

While Larry has some risk about him (aging offense, lost their FB, new coaching), that stuff you got for him is junk, nice trade :D

 

I'll wait till the end of the season to see how bad that statement is. :D

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His talent is undeniable, but the risks previously discussed are real. I think if I were in two keeper leagues, and I had the #1 pick in both, I'd take Larry J. in one, but not the other. (If the other had PPR I'd go LT2; if it didn't, I'd go Alexander).

Edited by yo mama
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All 3 have potential issues with players leaving, coaching changes and a new QB. I would take any of them to be sure, but had LJ the last 2 years and would take him again in a redraft. In a keeper his O-line's future is a real issue.

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Everything out of Arrowhead says they're running the same offense. I'm not 100% sure I buy it, but that's what they're saying.

 

The one thing out of KC I keep hearing -- and I believe it -- is that there's NO way that Edwards will allow the offense to be as "daring" and Vermeil/Saunders liked it to be. He'll almost certainly reduce the number of shots downfield, which was a big part of the offensive attack. Consequently, I'd be worried that the offense as a whole won't score as many points.

 

And, yes, I know that Edwards has said he won't fix what ain't broken (i.e. he won't tinker with the offense) and he'll probably allow Solari to call the plays. Unfortunately, he IS a conservative coach and he'll make sure Solari adapts his playcalling accordingly.

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people mention SA possibly going #1 and I think he poses the highest risk out of the 3...

 

LT2 has a new QB....been there, done that....everything else is the same...

 

LJ has the same team intact, even though they are a bit on the geritol side...they still perform and still made up for Roaf's absense when he was hurt last year....

 

SA is coming off the best year of his career...coming off a contract year at that....why did he need a contract year to push him that far beyond any previous performance?...plus he lost Hutch...oh...and the Madden jinx :D

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too much thinking going on:

 

redraft-I'll take him #1. He was a monster last year. When other teams KNOW he is going to get the ball and he still puts up insane numbers, I develop appropriate man-love for the player.

 

keeper/dynasty--age issues on the line would make me evaluate other potential options

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Here's my :D

 

Over the first 5 years of his career, LT has surpassed the numbers in both yardage and touchdowns of, Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders, Jm Brown, Walter Peyton and a few other names that are in the great hall. He did the first three of these on teams that (and as a Charger fan hurts to say) SUCKED! This is not including the yardage in receptions, which widens the gap even further.

 

LT for the first three years of his career was the ONLY real option on that offense. Even when opposing teams know that, they still can't consistently stop him. I make this point to show that, year after year, LT is a known producer. He is consistent and does not have the question marks that are brought up in this post. Also, a big problem with the O last year was the offensive line coach. I expressed these concerns BEFORE the season even started after Huock went to Miami (best O-line coach in the league :D ) and Mauck came in (and got fired after one season). Bringing in Jack Henry can only be a good thing. He is known for working wonders with young talent and has solid vets that have shown with the right coach can be a top ten (five :D ) OL. Two years ago, Brees was rarely touched when he dropped back. The talent is even better now and just needs the right coaching, which has been addressed.

 

With River's taking over, these are the two most likely scenarios that can occur:

 

1) Rivers struggles early or all year (doesn't matter see #2) and they feed LT the ball. There is NO REASON other than injury that would indicate he doesn't end up as a top 5 scorer...again! Also his catches go up when the QBs struggle or the D is stacking the box against him, giving him more catches on swing and dump-off passes. The greater risk of injury to LT happens here since he will be exposed more often, but boo-boos that put him on the bench have not been part of his history.

 

2) Rivers steps in, plays well (which I believe will happen) which opens things up for LT and he gets to break those sweet long runs he makes look routine. With an effective passing game, Marty doesn't have to pound the ball down after down, keeping LT fresh, increasing the likelyhood of longer TDs and a healthier player at the end of the season. Despite less reliance on LT to be "the guy" in this scenario, remember, Marty likes to control the ball and the clock, so LT still gets the rock plenty with greater opportunities to break the long one against Ds that have to stay honest. The downside here is that when the Bolts passing game is working, LT sees fewer looks in this phase of the offense, but his YPC seems to go up.

 

Don't forget the occasional TD pass LT tosses. Few backs in The League get the opportunity to EVER throw the ball.

 

In a way, Rivers playing well (I think he will be better than Brees) could actually reduce LT's production because there won't be the reliance on him to carry the load. The Chargers have a stable of quality WRs, Gates, and the monster TE, Brandon Manumaleuna acquired from the Rams for added pound factor (something missing at the other TE spot last yearl), makes this a very efficient, grinding, frustrating offense to deal with. You can count on one hand the NFL teams that have O units as balanced as that of the Bolts. The Chargers win games because their opponents tend to get frustrated and start making too many mistakes trying to make something happen.

 

Based on this mindset, for me at least, LT is the guy I go with. I know what I am going to get. Too many people feely they got cheated if the #1 pick doesn't end up the season as the #1 over-all. How often does that actually happen though? Any player picked in the top 5 is usually a guy you want to be an "auto-start". No worries, no concerns, just production.

 

For me, LT is the most proven commodity in the NFL, fantasy or real life football. This is a young man that you can build a franchise around (and they have) and be proud that you brought him into your community. From a fantasy perspective, I hate playing players I dislike as people, Owens, Vick, any Raider :D , it makes it "less fun" for me. LJ has not conducted himself, so far, as the type of person that I would want my son to emmulate. LT clearly is that type of person.

 

My top three go like this:

 

LT, SA (for many of the reasons above... known production over recent FULL seasons), LJ.

 

Age is usually less of a factor with the O-line, and a new system is balanced by the fact the Herm will probably ride LJ more than a canal mule. I THINK LJ will produce big and could very well end up #1 overall at the end of the year. What I KNOW is that LT WILL BE in the top tier, he has proven it, year in, year out, and that security is hard to overlook.

 

:D:D

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Here's my :D

 

Over the first 5 years of his career, LT has surpassed the numbers in both yardage and touchdowns of, Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders, Jm Brown, Walter Peyton and a few other names that are in the great hall. He did the first three of these on teams that (and as a Charger fan hurts to say) SUCKED! This is not including the yardage in receptions, which widens the gap even further.

 

LT for the first three years of his career was the ONLY real option on that offense. Even when opposing teams know that, they still can't consistently stop him. I make this point to show that, year after year, LT is a known producer. He is consistent and does not have the question marks that are brought up in this post. Also, a big problem with the O last year was the offensive line coach. I expressed these concerns BEFORE the season even started after Huock went to Miami (best O-line coach in the league :D ) and Mauck came in (and got fired after one season). Bringing in Jack Henry can only be a good thing. He is known for working wonders with young talent and has solid vets that have shown with the right coach can be a top ten (five :D ) OL. Two years ago, Brees was rarely touched when he dropped back. The talent is even better now and just needs the right coaching, which has been addressed.

 

With River's taking over, these are the two most likely scenarios that can occur:

 

1) Rivers struggles early or all year (doesn't matter see #2) and they feed LT the ball. There is NO REASON other than injury that would indicate he doesn't end up as a top 5 scorer...again! Also his catches go up when the QBs struggle or the D is stacking the box against him, giving him more catches on swing and dump-off passes. The greater risk of injury to LT happens here since he will be exposed more often, but boo-boos that put him on the bench have not been part of his history.

 

2) Rivers steps in, plays well (which I believe will happen) which opens things up for LT and he gets to break those sweet long runs he makes look routine. With an effective passing game, Marty doesn't have to pound the ball down after down, keeping LT fresh, increasing the likelyhood of longer TDs and a healthier player at the end of the season. Despite less reliance on LT to be "the guy" in this scenario, remember, Marty likes to control the ball and the clock, so LT still gets the rock plenty with greater opportunities to break the long one against Ds that have to stay honest. The downside here is that when the Bolts passing game is working, LT sees fewer looks in this phase of the offense, but his YPC seems to go up.

 

Don't forget the occasional TD pass LT tosses. Few backs in The League get the opportunity to EVER throw the ball.

 

In a way, Rivers playing well (I think he will be better than Brees) could actually reduce LT's production because there won't be the reliance on him to carry the load. The Chargers have a stable of quality WRs, Gates, and the monster TE, Brandon Manumaleuna acquired from the Rams for added pound factor (something missing at the other TE spot last yearl), makes this a very efficient, grinding, frustrating offense to deal with. You can count on one hand the NFL teams that have O units as balanced as that of the Bolts. The Chargers win games because their opponents tend to get frustrated and start making too many mistakes trying to make something happen.

 

Based on this mindset, for me at least, LT is the guy I go with. I know what I am going to get. Too many people feely they got cheated if the #1 pick doesn't end up the season as the #1 over-all. How often does that actually happen though? Any player picked in the top 5 is usually a guy you want to be an "auto-start". No worries, no concerns, just production.

 

For me, LT is the most proven commodity in the NFL, fantasy or real life football. This is a young man that you can build a franchise around (and they have) and be proud that you brought him into your community. From a fantasy perspective, I hate playing players I dislike as people, Owens, Vick, any Raider :D , it makes it "less fun" for me. LJ has not conducted himself, so far, as the type of person that I would want my son to emmulate. LT clearly is that type of person.

 

My top three go like this:

 

LT, SA (for many of the reasons above... known production over recent FULL seasons), LJ.

 

Age is usually less of a factor with the O-line, and a new system is balanced by the fact the Herm will probably ride LJ more than a canal mule. I THINK LJ will produce big and could very well end up #1 overall at the end of the year. What I KNOW is that LT WILL BE in the top tier, he has proven it, year in, year out, and that security is hard to overlook.

 

:D:D

 

Now this here is a fantastic post :D

 

My feelings exactly. LT2, for me, is a no brainer at the #1 spot.

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We're picking players based on fantasy scoring, not based on HOF material. LT has performed poorly the last TWO years when their owners needed him down the stretch. 1 year could be a fluke. Two years shows a trend. I'd rather have a lesser back who is healthy for my playoff run.

 

SA had an excellent year. But show me 1 RB who put up the numbers he did for a full season, and come back the following year to put up similar numbers. You've just seen SA's career year. He wont duplicate it.

 

LJ has yet to play a full season. While he's a bit of an enigma as far as full season numbers go, I'd rather take my chances with his potential.

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Now this here is a fantastic post :D

 

My feelings exactly. LT2, for me, is a no brainer at the #1 spot.

 

 

Why thank you! :D Nice of you to take the time to give props! :D

 

I think what might have been missed here since Fantasy value was supposed to be inferred is this.

 

Over the last four years of using MFL I pulled these numbers out.

 

LT has been since '02, the # 5, 2, 5 & 3 ranked player according to our stats (which are pretty standard performance stasts, with a point per catch).

 

More importantly, NO ACTIVE player in the NFL has scored more FF points that LT and only one player, (Priest) has been higher than LT twice (and priest ain't gonna do that again).

 

You want consistent FF or Real life performance, year in, year out? LT is about the safest pick tou can make. There are no questions and you know what you are getting.

 

Once again, it is VERY possible, maybe even likely the LJ scores more than LT this year. He is in a good position to do that.

 

Either one is a great pick, but I feel safer with LT because I don't have wonder "if"?

 

:D

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Why thank you! :D Nice of you to take the time to give props! :D

 

I think what might have been missed here since Fantasy value was supposed to be inferred is this.

 

Over the last four years of using MFL I pulled these numbers out.

 

LT has been since '02, the # 5, 2, 5 & 3 ranked player according to our stats (which are pretty standard performance stasts, with a point per catch).

 

More importantly, NO ACTIVE player in the NFL has scored more FF points that LT and only one player, (Priest) has been higher than LT twice (and priest ain't gonna do that again).

 

You want consistent FF or Real life performance, year in, year out? LT is about the safest pick tou can make. There are no questions and you know what you are getting.

 

Once again, it is VERY possible, maybe even likely the LJ scores more than LT this year. He is in a good position to do that.

 

Either one is a great pick, but I feel safer with LT because I don't have wonder "if"?

 

:D

 

 

 

You like to feel safe, nothing wrong with that. Safe, conservative choices are never a bad thing especially when it comes to LT. Fantasy football is well....a fantasy....sometimes..taking risks makes it that much more fun. I guess its all about personalities....risk takers will go for LJ...while more conservative folks will go the safe route with LT. But like you said, I don't think you can go wrong with any of them. Although one guy can make a difference, you need more to win it all.

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