Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

Marc Bulger


cliaz
 Share

Recommended Posts

I was asked to write an article for HGS about marc Bulger. When I started with it I had the full intentions of justifying picking him higher than some other QB and pretty much had made the point to show how a QB of his caliber would be a great addition to a team. But as I started writing it became more and more apparent that Bulger is a very over valued QB (to me as of right now.). I'll show you a chunk of what I have (not all of it.) and of course please ignore the grammar right now as I have not edited these parts yet.

 

Tell me what you think and if my point is just wasted. Thanks in advance:

 

*note I know that he does have his 350+ yard games and multiple TD games but just try and read this snippet with an open mind first.

 

 

 

 

Firstly – Bulger has never played a full 16 game season.

 

2002 – 7 games started – hurt finger/ three compression fractures of the spine.

(Also lack of playing time because of Warner.)

 

2003 – 15 games started – replaced Warner in week 2 and knocked out of game in week 17 due to bruised forearm.

 

2004 – 14 games started – Knee problems (pre-season), Played with a hurt

shoulder and re-injured the shoulder in week 13 against the 49ers.

 

2005 – 8 games started – shoulder

 

Secondly - Though he still managed to start 29 games between 2004 and 2005 the constant lingering injuries to his shoulders should be a concern for many owners. Over the course of his career (taken from 2002 – 2005) Bulger has had more games with less than 250 yards (15) than games with more than 300 yards (13) which is not bad. Also during that time frame he had one game with 4 touchdowns, five games with 3 touchdowns, nineteen games with 2 touchdowns, eighteen games with 1 touchdown and three games with 0 touchdowns.

 

What all of this means is when you draft Bulger you are looking at an average of 271.18 yards and 1.61 touchdowns a game plus only being able to start 11 games on average through the season. Not really stealer numbers for a QB that many owners place so highly on their cheat sheets.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would've been one of those that was thinking of Bulger as the #5-8 range but after reading your points, I think I'll let someone else grab him that high. I think you basically broke down Bulger perfectly and in doing so it's hard to justify taking him where most (including me) would have him ranked. Plus a new coach/system doesn't help.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would've been one of those that was thinking of Bulger as the #5-8 range but after reading your points, I think I'll let someone else grab him that high. I think you basically broke down Bulger perfectly and in doing so it's hard to justify taking him where most (including me) would have him ranked. Plus a new coach/system doesn't help.

 

 

 

wow, thank you. I was afraid that I was going in too deep on this one. I appreciate the comments.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, injuries are always in issue for Bulger, at least under Martz' scheme that left QBs wide open to DBs. That may or may not change this year; we'll see.

 

However, I crunched some numbers on Bulger a month or so ago and was pleasantly surprised to find that over the last five years no other QB has put up a higher average points per game than Bulger.

 

Simply put, Bulger has the most PROVEN upside of any starting FF QB out there. (I'm not counting Palmer, because he is less proven *and* pretty banged up himself). P. Manning does offer only slightly less upside, but a butt-load more consistency and durability, plus there isn't the same coaching change-related concern over whether his numbers will be affect (which exists with Bulger this year).

 

However, based purely on historical statistical analysis, Bulger offers the best value for his ADP, IMO. But if you go in that direction you simply must commit to drafting a dependable back up QB earlier, perhaps, than you might otherwise. And that is an added opportunity cost that must be factored into the equation.

Edited by yo mama
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, injuries are always in issue for Bulger, at least under Martz' scheme that left QBs wide open to DBs. That may or may not change this year; we'll see.

 

However, I crunched some numbers on Bulger a month or so ago and was pleasantly surprised to find that over the last five years no other QB has put up a higher average points per game than Bulger.

 

Simply put, Bulger has the most PROVEN upside of any starting FF QB out there. (I'm not counting Palmer, because he is less proven *and* pretty banged up himself). P. Manning does offer only slightly less upside, but a butt-load more consistency and durability, plus there isn't the same coaching change-related concern over whether his numbers will be affect (which exists with Bulger this year).

 

However, based purely on historical statistical analysis, Bulger offers the best value for his ADP, IMO. But if you go in that direction you simply must commit to drafting a dependable back up QB earlier, perhaps, than you might otherwise. And that is an added opportunity cost that must be factored into the equation.

 

 

 

good points, thank you

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cliaz,

 

Take note of the fact that Mad Mike Martz and his crazy system of leaving little QB protection, while flooding the secondary with WR's on long developing pass plays, has been scrapped.

 

Linehan has said giving adequate protection for Bulger is a priority. I also think Bulger learned his lesson on tackling players, by leading with his throwing shoulder.

 

What may impact Bulger's numbers more than anything else, is a return to prominence of the run game. However, I don't see a whole bunch of improvement to the Rams D, so I'd expect there will still be plenty of games where the Rams will have to play catch up via the pass.

 

My :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something you have to take into account is that the Martz system of five and seven step drops coupled with an average offensive line results in defenders getting a nice head of steam before slamming into the QB - note Trent Green and Kurt Warner both were similarly injured in that system. Trent Green certainly seems to have done better away from it.

 

Linehan has recognized the problem that has resulted in every STL QB taking too many hard hits and is implementing new features like audibles and shorter drops (down to 5 and 3 step) expressly to decrease the amount of hits that Bulger is taking, plus he intends to use the running game more so that second and third downs do not automatically mean a deep pass is coming.

 

Gus Frerotte in MIA had a career best 18 TDs last year playing in a Linehan system and his second best ever yardage in his six years as a starter. I believe Bulger > Frerotte and that Holt/Bruce/Curtis > Chambers/Booker/Welker.

 

STL allowed 46 sacks last year to rank 27th in the NFL.

MIA allowed 26 to rank 4th best.

 

In 2004, STL allowed 50 sacks to rank 28th.

MIA allowed 52 sacks to rank 29th.

 

I think Linehan made a big difference in MIA last year.

 

In 2003, STL allowed 43 sacks to rank 28th.

 

The problem is less about Bulger being injury prone than it is the Martz system is hard on QBs as it has been on virtually every QB that has played in it for any amount of time. Continually place a QB in a seven step drop and even Peyton Manning would not last.

 

While stats can be read to suggest that Bulger is injury prone, it goes deeper than just his history. It is the history of his team and the changes that will be made to me. I guess I better keep a copy of this when people complain I have him ranked 7th this year. The increase in rushing is the only factor in STL that bothers me about Bulger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree that Bulger definitely has a poor injury history.

 

However, besides Manning and Brady, is there any other QB out there with Bulger's potential that is not injury prone or not coming off a major injury?

 

Every Bulger owner from last year will tell you that he was a big part of their fantasy success until he went down. When healthy, Bulger is consistent AND puts up good numbers - on par with what Brady did last year. If the Rams are dedicated to protecting him better, then he's worthy of a 5th or later pick IMO. It really comes down to how much you think injuries will plague him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, besides Manning and Brady, is there any other QB out there with Bulger's potential that is not injury prone or not coming off a major injury.

 

Delhomme and Hasselbeck come to mind, but the 16-game upside isn't as brilliant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Delhomme and Hasselbeck come to mind, but the 16-game upside isn't as brilliant.

 

 

Quite true. And Delhomme seems to be the new Tom Brady of drafts this year. He's usu available in Rd 7.

 

I'm not sold on Hass. He has good year/bad year syndrome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something you have to take into account is that the Martz system of five and seven step drops coupled with an average offensive line results in defenders getting a nice head of steam before slamming into the QB - note Trent Green and Kurt Warner both were similarly injured in that system. Trent Green certainly seems to have done better away from it.

 

Linehan has recognized the problem that has resulted in every STL QB taking too many hard hits and is implementing new features like audibles and shorter drops (down to 5 and 3 step) expressly to decrease the amount of hits that Bulger is taking, plus he intends to use the running game more so that second and third downs do not automatically mean a deep pass is coming.

 

Gus Frerotte in MIA had a career best 18 TDs last year playing in a Linehan system and his second best ever yardage in his six years as a starter. I believe Bulger > Frerotte and that Holt/Bruce/Curtis > Chambers/Booker/Welker.

 

STL allowed 46 sacks last year to rank 27th in the NFL.

MIA allowed 26 to rank 4th best.

 

In 2004, STL allowed 50 sacks to rank 28th.

MIA allowed 52 sacks to rank 29th.

 

I think Linehan made a big difference in MIA last year.

 

In 2003, STL allowed 43 sacks to rank 28th.

 

The problem is less about Bulger being injury prone than it is the Martz system is hard on QBs as it has been on virtually every QB that has played in it for any amount of time. Continually place a QB in a seven step drop and even Peyton Manning would not last.

 

While stats can be read to suggest that Bulger is injury prone, it goes deeper than just his history. It is the history of his team and the changes that will be made to me. I guess I better keep a copy of this when people complain I have him ranked 7th this year. The increase in rushing is the only factor in STL that bothers me about Bulger.

 

:D

Good posting DMD. You echoed my post exactly.

 

One thing to note though. Just like in my post, your concern is Linehan's commitment to the run game being the main negative factor with Bulger. This will be somewhat mitigated by the fact that the Rams D still sucks.

 

There will still be come from behind games for Bulger, which I expect will afford him enough passing opportunities to off set the increased emphasis on the run game.

 

You do bring up an excellent point that I failed to mention. If you're a believer in QB handcuffs, the Bulger / Frerotte combo, is probably one of the best this year. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quite true. And Delhomme seems to be the new Tom Brady of drafts this year. He's usu available in Rd 7.

 

I'm not sold on Hass. He has good year/bad year syndrome.

 

Eli Manning and perhaps even Brunell are others that deserve consideration as "upside but not coming off injury" kind of players.

Edited by yo mama
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, injuries are always in issue for Bulger, at least under Martz' scheme that left QBs wide open to DBs. That may or may not change this year; we'll see.

 

However, I crunched some numbers on Bulger a month or so ago and was pleasantly surprised to find that over the last five years no other QB has put up a higher average points per game than Bulger.

 

Simply put, Bulger has the most PROVEN upside of any starting FF QB out there. (I'm not counting Palmer, because he is less proven *and* pretty banged up himself). P. Manning does offer only slightly less upside, but a butt-load more consistency and durability, plus there isn't the same coaching change-related concern over whether his numbers will be affect (which exists with Bulger this year).

 

However, based purely on historical statistical analysis, Bulger offers the best value for his ADP, IMO. But if you go in that direction you simply must commit to drafting a dependable back up QB earlier, perhaps, than you might otherwise. And that is an added opportunity cost that must be factored into the equation.

 

Good info.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't the Martz system of 5 and 7 foot drops that get Bulger killed also allow for receivers to get open downfield thus resulting in better numbers for Bulger? Better protection and shorter drops also mean quicker, shorter routes.

 

 

Good protection/short routes is exactly what a west-coast offense is predicated upon. Three-step drop, ball is gone. I may be wrong, but I don't think any of the historically-West Coast Offense QBs (SF, GB, Philly) ever had any trouble putting up solid fantasy numbers. If STL is going to employ a similar brand of 3-step drops, Bulger's numbers should be just fine this year, especially with guys like Holt and Curtis, who can catch a 5-yard pass and take it 70 yards for a TD.

 

I'll take the more-healthy QB advantage every day of the week.

Edited by i_am_the_swammi
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's not forget that Bulger's injury last year occurred while trying to get in position to make a tackle after an interception and taking on a Colts LB.

 

I imagine he's learned his lesson after that one.

 

I know the risks are there, but I have always done well in leagues with Bulger as my starter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's not forget that Bulger's injury last year occurred while trying to get in position to make a tackle after an interception and taking on a Colts LB.

 

I imagine he's learned his lesson after that one.

 

I know the risks are there, but I have always done well in leagues with Bulger as my starter.

 

 

+1

I have won several leagues with him as my starter. Once the backs are gone he becomes a top QB pick IMO.

I also like the fact that when he has a big game, he usually piles up bonus points with high yardage and lots of completions.

The injury bug is a real concern, but hopefully he has aquired the wisdom to keep himself in one piece, especially after the most recent episode.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, besides Manning and Brady, is there any other QB out there with Bulger's potential that is not injury prone or not coming off a major injury?

 

 

Hasselbeck, E.Manning, Delhomme.... :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem is less about Bulger being injury prone than it is the Martz system is hard on QBs as it has been on virtually every QB that has played in it for any amount of time.

 

 

The injuries pile up and start having a factor regardless of who's coaching (see Warner, Kurt).

 

I like Bulger, I think he could have a big year under Linehan, but the guy has NEVER played a full season. That alone makes him less valuable than at least a half-dozen QBs on draft day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information