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The 4th spot overall


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I landed the "dreaded" 4th spot overall in my local 12 team, redraft league. Rather than just posting a "who do I take at 4" type of thread, I thought it might be reasonable to turn it into a general discussion on this draft spot, even with the consensus sheet taking shape and plenty of debate out there.

 

Seems like the top 3 are a virtual lock in every single redraft out there and even though the Huddle has Portis as the current consensus number 4 pick, I wondered if anyone might want to debate this spot generally and review the candidates? Also seems to me that spots 4 through 12 are very tough to definitively gauge. I mean can anyone say that Edge (new team) will almost certainly outscore, say, Ronnie Brown (got the Miami running game all to himself)?

 

Tiki Barber - awesome 2 years in a row but 31 now

Edge - great back in a good offense but this is Arizona after all

Portis - consensus 4th pick currently but totally unimpressive td output 2 years running

R. Brown - great situation but only his second year

C. Williams - see above

L. Jordan, S-Jax, R.Johnson - arguably all virtually interchangeable, very tough to project

 

Does anyone think schedule will significantly come into the equation as it usually does? Again, don't wnat this to seem like a "who do I take there" post, more just a general discussion on what seems to me to be a very tricky position (almost feel like you might get a better guy at 12 as 4 whereas the top 3 are virtually a lock to BE top 3).

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I have mentioned this in other discussion, but this year, after the top 3, I'd prefer a later mid pick (for a 12-team league, that means the 7 or 8 slot).

 

I just don't see Portis, whom I do have at 4, as being far enough ahead of any of the other considerations at the spot to warrant losing out on a better 2nd round pick.

 

That said, with the 4th pick, I go with Portis and then let the early 2nd round picks determine the way you go. If they take mostly RBs, then you go RB as it is almost a virtual lock that the 1-3 guys will take at least 2, most likely 3 RBs before your 3rd round pick. If the earlier 2nd round picks have more WRs and possibly a QB or two, then you have more leeway with going with your top WR if you think he is far enough ahead of the remaining WRs as there will be more RBs left, meaning you likely end up with a player very comparableto who you would get if you went RB in the 2nd.

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I landed the "dreaded" 4th spot overall in my local 12 team, redraft league. Rather than just posting a "who do I take at 4" type of thread, I thought it might be reasonable to turn it into a general discussion on this draft spot, even with the consensus sheet taking shape and plenty of debate out there.

 

Seems like the top 3 are a virtual lock in every single redraft out there and even though the Huddle has Portis as the current consensus number 4 pick, I wondered if anyone might want to debate this spot generally and review the candidates? Also seems to me that spots 4 through 12 are very tough to definitively gauge. I mean can anyone say that Edge (new team) will almost certainly outscore, say, Ronnie Brown (got the Miami running game all to himself)?

 

Tiki Barber - awesome 2 years in a row but 31 now

Edge - great back in a good offense but this is Arizona after all

Portis - consensus 4th pick currently but totally unimpressive td output 2 years running

R. Brown - great situation but only his second year

C. Williams - see above

L. Jordan, S-Jax, R.Johnson - arguably all virtually interchangeable, very tough to project

 

Does anyone think schedule will significantly come into the equation as it usually does? Again, don't wnat this to seem like a "who do I take there" post, more just a general discussion on what seems to me to be a very tricky position (almost feel like you might get a better guy at 12 as 4 whereas the top 3 are virtually a lock to BE top 3).

 

 

11 TDs for Portis last year is respectable, IMO.

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also...Westbrook should be in almost all RB top 10's...especially in PPR leagues....

 

don't sleep on him again...he's even getting conditioning tips from Tiki's trainer on how to keep himself healthy and preventing himself from nagging injuries...

 

he's taking his job seriously....and he's a threat to score a TD on any play...much like his backup, Ryan Moats....

 

this is a homer's point of view...but I rarely look at anyone on the eagles offense as a viable fantasy option.....I mean, money is on the line and I only looked to either Mcnabb, TO, LJ and sometimes Westy...

 

now I even say R Brown at WR can be a great 4th option and maybe even a very-very good #3....maybe...and I'm on the Westbrook bandwagon full-tilt for the 1st time...

 

and you should too :D

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also...Westbrook should be in almost all RB top 10's...especially in PPR leagues....

 

don't sleep on him again...he's even getting conditioning tips from Tiki's trainer on how to keep himself healthy and preventing himself from nagging injuries...

 

he's taking his job seriously....and he's a threat to score a TD on any play...much like his backup, Ryan Moats....

 

this is a homer's point of view...but I rarely look at anyone on the eagles offense as a viable fantasy option.....I mean, money is on the line and I only looked to either Mcnabb, TO, LJ and sometimes Westy...

 

now I even say R Brown at WR can be a great 4th option and maybe even a very-very good #3....maybe...and I'm on the Westbrook bandwagon full-tilt for the 1st time...

 

and you should too :D

 

 

I like Westbrook a lot but could never take him at 4 and he won't be there at 21, if he is i'll grab him quick! This is exactly why I didn't want 4th overall since a guy like Rudi Johnson might actually outsscore Tiki or Edge or Portis (though probably not) and I could not take him there either. Tough spot but still kind of like picking early despite it not being the 1,2 or 3 I wanted.

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I have mentioned this in other discussion, but this year, after the top 3, I'd prefer a later mid pick (for a 12-team league, that means the 7 or 8 slot).

 

I just don't see Portis, whom I do have at 4, as being far enough ahead of any of the other considerations at the spot to warrant losing out on a better 2nd round pick.

 

That said, with the 4th pick, I go with Portis and then let the early 2nd round picks determine the way you go. If they take mostly RBs, then you go RB as it is almost a virtual lock that the 1-3 guys will take at least 2, most likely 3 RBs before your 3rd round pick. If the earlier 2nd round picks have more WRs and possibly a QB or two, then you have more leeway with going with your top WR if you think he is far enough ahead of the remaining WRs as there will be more RBs left, meaning you likely end up with a player very comparableto who you would get if you went RB in the 2nd.

 

 

Good info here :D

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In the 1st-round, #4 clearly sucks, since you have the toughest decision of all. Still, the reason it's better than 5 through 12 is your THIRD-round pick. Like in the past couple of years, you have a good chance of coming out of the first 3 rounds with two good, if not spectacular RBs and a legitimate stud WR.

 

Guys who pick 5th-12th have to make TWO tough decisions on RBs, most of whom have equal relative value, AND they'll have to reach for a WR at the end of the 3rd. Either way they go, their 3rd-round pick is tough.

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I like Westbrook a lot but could never take him at 4 and he won't be there at 21, if he is i'll grab him quick! This is exactly why I didn't want 4th overall since a guy like Rudi Johnson might actually outsscore Tiki or Edge or Portis (though probably not) and I could not take him there either. Tough spot but still kind of like picking early despite it not being the 1,2 or 3 I wanted.

 

 

I'm not saying at 4...at all lol.....I said top 10....

 

but...when you get past Tiki...it's all up for grabs.....that was my point...

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I finished a Mock from the 4th position that I thought went fairly well. But I didn't follow the pack with the first pick. I jumped early on R. Brown because I thought he would have a better year then Tiki or Portis.

 

 

Fred Beasley has got to help him at least a little.....I like this move as well...just like how Richardson will improve the Vikes ground game...

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I like Westbrook a lot but could never take him at 4 and he won't be there at 21, if he is i'll grab him quick! This is exactly why I didn't want 4th overall since a guy like Rudi Johnson might actually outsscore Tiki or Edge or Portis (though probably not) and I could not take him there either. Tough spot but still kind of like picking early despite it not being the 1,2 or 3 I wanted.

 

 

 

You could try and trade up a few spots. He may be there at 16. At 21 Julius Jones, Kevin, FWP should be there. I would go WR and try for Droughens, Chester Taylor or Foster/Deangelo later in the draft.

 

In the 1st-round, #4 clearly sucks, since you have the toughest decision of all. Still, the reason it's better than 5 through 12 is your THIRD-round pick. Like in the past couple of years, you have a good chance of coming out of the first 3 rounds with two good, if not spectacular RBs and a legitimate stud WR.

 

Guys who pick 5th-12th have to make TWO tough decisions on RBs, most of whom have equal relative value, AND they'll have to reach for a WR at the end of the 3rd. Either way they go, their 3rd-round pick is tough.

 

 

Yes, absolutely. In 2 drafts my #3 was Reggie Wayne.

Edited by Randall
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The more I think about it, the more I am liking Portis this year. I was originally looking at him as #6 after LJ, LT, SA, Rudi, Tiki, but he has moved up to #4 for me. Al Saunders is big.

 

And I think the #4 pick is a good pick to have. I might even end up adjusting my tiering so that tier 1 has 4 players.

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