Typical age progression of a NFL RB

[THE SIX KINGS]

FFL: Thirtyslumpings

 

By Tristan H. Cockcroft

 

 

 

The career of a running back is short, among the shortest in all of professional sports. For instance, even the best often provide a team only six or seven years of solid production. That shouldn't come as a complete surprise, though. Football players deal with so much wear and tear on an every-game basis, and running backs in particular take a pounding two dozen or more times a week, 16 times a season. Over the years, that can take quite a physical toll.

 

Maybe it seems like a silly thought that a running back's age can carry such weight regarding his potential statistical output, but historical data does prove it true. Perhaps you've heard the oft-quoted saying "never draft a quarterback over 30 years old"?

 

Those who remember back to my "Thirtyslumpings" column of a year ago might remember that the discussion one year ago centered on the Jets' Curtis Martin, who, at the time, was coming off one of the greatest years in NFL history from a player who had already passed his 30th birthday. Despite being 31 years old in 2004, he rushed for 1,697 yards that year, becoming the oldest player in history to lead the league in that department. Martin's performance suddenly had everyone believing NFL running backs had discovered a virtual fountain of youth, enabling themselves to extend their careers longer than ever before.

 

But what happened to Martin in 2005? As a 32-year-old, he endured the worst season of his 11-year career, setting career lows in rushing attempts (220), yards (735) and yards-per-carry average (3.3). The Jets' troubling season didn't do him any favors, but even when he got his chances, Martin showed clear signs that his age had caught up to him.

 

Martin wasn't the only 30-and-up running back who was a relative disappointment in 2005, either: The Patriots' Corey Dillon, age 30 at the start of 2005, set a career low with a 3.5 yards-per-carry average and missed four games due to injury.

 

Of course, I'll also note that the Giants' Tiki Barber and Falcons' Warrick Dunn, both age 30, and the Broncos' Mike Anderson, enjoyed standout seasons in 2005. That does demonstrate why you shouldn't take such blanket statements as gospel, though it should also be noted that in the cases of Anderson and Dunn, neither had endured quite the career workload that most running backs do before their 30th birthdays. Their legs were a bit fresher than your typical veteran's would be at their ages.

 

In order to demonstrate the typical age progression of a running back, I compiled the year-by-year statistics of each of the 64 players in NFL history who have rushed for 6,000 or more yards in their careers. Calculating each player's age as of Sept. 1 of each season of their careers, I gathered the total numbers for all 64 players broken down by age. Listed below are the results, with the statistics scaled down to 16 games played. (For example, the 66 players combined for 15,532 carries, 67,753 rushing yards and 485 rushing touchdowns in 864 games as 25-year-olds; in 16 games those numbers become 287.6-1254.7-9.0.)

 

Age 21: 220.8 attempts, 973.3 yards, 4.41 average, 7.8 TDs.

Age 22: 219.7 attempts, 952.0 yards, 4.33 average, 7.3 TDs.

 

Most rookies enter the league as 21- or 22-year-olds, and many are good enough right away to make a fantasy impact, but these numbers should offer a little room for caution. Remember, these are numbers from the best players of all-time, so while a future great like Reggie Bush could be a standout even as a rookie, don't let your expectations get the best of you. This year's crop: Bush (21), Brian Calhoun (22), Maurice Drew (21), Laurence Maroney (21) and LenDale White (21).

 

Age 23: 234.6 attempts, 1031.2 yards, 4.40 average, 7.7 TDs.

Age 24: 262.5 attempts, 1158.0 yards, 4.41 average, 8.2 TDs.

 

Here's where a running back generally hits his stride, with most enjoying a breakout campaign in the age 23-25 range, assuming, of course, they get the opportunity that early in their career. Ultimately, players who don't step up with a breakthrough season in this stage of their careers either didn't get the opportunity to play at that young an age or might not be the kind of player with great long-term potential. That's why 2006 is such an important year for players like Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee, who are coming off disappointing campaigns; it could be quite a career-defining season for each. This year's crop: Joseph Addai (23), Marion Barber (23), Cedric Benson (23), Ronnie Brown (24), Samkon Gado (23), Frank Gore (23), Cedric Houston (24), Steven Jackson (23), Brandon Jacobs (24), Kevin Jones (24), Willis McGahee (24), Ryan Moats (23), Mewelde Moore (24), Chris Perry (24), Cadillac Williams (24) and DeAngelo Williams (23).

 

Age 25: 287.6 attempts, 1254.7 yards, 4.36 average, 9.0 TDs.

Age 26: 291.7 attempts, 1262.7 yards, 4.33 average, 9.2 TDs.

Age 27: 289.9 attempts, 1218.2 yards, 4.20 average, 8.4 TDs.

 

They're the prime years, and I always advise that given the choice between two similarly valued players, I'm always taking the one in the age 25-to-27 range over someone older. This year's crop: Kevan Barlow (27), Tatum Bell (25), Chris Brown (25), Najeh Davenport (27), Domanick Davis (25), T.J. Duckett (25), DeShaun Foster (26), Larry Johnson (26), Rudi Johnson (26), Greg Jones (25), Julius Jones (25), LaMont Jordan (27), Jamal Lewis (27), Willie Parker (25), Clinton Portis (25), Dominic Rhodes (27), Chester Taylor (26), LaDainian Tomlinson (27) and Brian Westbrook (26).

 

Age 28: 266.8 attempts, 1133.6 yards, 4.25 average, 7.8 TDs.

Age 29: 249.5 attempts, 1054.9 yards, 4.23 average, 7.5 TDs.

 

Though history shows that the best runners of all-time showed slight signs of breaking down as they neared their 30th birthdays, which could be cause for alarm for prospective owners of players like Shaun Alexander or Edgerrin James, I wouldn't be too worried. Remember, those are still extraordinary statistics, and players today are bigger, stronger and more physically fit. Take Alexander's age only as a sign that he might not have that many first-round-caliber fantasy seasons left in him, but he should be fine for at least 2006-07. This year's crop: Shaun Alexander (29), Michael Bennett (28), Ron Dayne (28), Reuben Droughns (28), Nick Goings (28), Ahman Green (29), Edgerrin James (28), Thomas Jones (28) and Ricky Williams (29).

 

Age 30: 222.9 attempts, 928.5 yards, 4.17 average, 6.1 TDs.

 

What's interesting is that this year's crop only includes one marquee fantasy player: The Jaguars' Fred Taylor. That's a bit of a concern for the nine-year veteran, though. Injuries have cost him 24 games the past six seasons, and with 1,831 career rushing attempts on his legs, the chances aren't good of a bounce-back season from him.

 

Age 31: 189.3 attempts, 762.3 yards, 4.03 average, 5.2 TDs.

 

This year's crop: Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn and Michael Pittman. Barber and Dunn were fantasy standouts in 2005, but they've officially entered the troublesome stages of their careers. Barber has only 1,890 career rushing attempts and has been mostly injury free for nine years, which is an encouraging sign that he can step up with one more solid fantasy season, but his age does make it a bit more important that you insure him by selecting his backup, Brandon Jacobs, in the later rounds.

 

Age 32: 171.2 attempts, 667.9 yards, 3.90 average, 4.9 TDs.

 

This year's crop: Mike Anderson, Mike Alstott, Stephen Davis, Priest Holmes. None of these four are projected starters for 2006, and Davis and Holmes in all likelihood will retire within the next calendar year, if not before the season. At their ages, they're long shots to ever offer fantasy owners another big year.

 

Age 33: 155.4 attempts, 572.3 yards, 3.68 average, 4.2 TDs.

 

This year's crop: Marshall Faulk and Curtis Martin. Martin enters 2006 as the oldest projected starter in the league, and we all saw what he did a year ago. He's not getting any younger and the Jets aren't getting all that much better, so don't expect another late-career rebirth from the No. 4 rusher all-time.

 

Age 34: 154.3 attempts, 582.2 yards, 3.77 average, 5.2 TDs.

Age 35-plus: 158.3 attempts, 608.9 yards, 3.85 average, 6.2 TDs.

 

No players in this year's crop.

[TecmoBeast]

i'm finally ready to draft Tiki high, so he's definitely going down with some injury

[Robash]

actually i dont see Jacobs as being the evry down answer for the Giants if Tiki goes down,...Ward looks like the best bet, and seems to be number 2 of most depth charts around...guess we will have to wait until training camp to find out more

[Avernus]

they are pulling these stats all wrong.....it's not how old you are....people age differently...

 

it's all about how many seasons you've played...or started in rather...and how much of a load you carried in the season(s) you didn't start...

[Chargerz]

In the same vein as Avernus above:

 

I'm thinking total number of carries is as much of a factor as age alone. It would be interesting to run those numbers and compare. You'd have to see how the older backs with fewer carries compared to those with more carries. Probably difficult to do.

Edited July 3, 2006 by Chargerz

[Chief Dick]

I've always looked at the age progression like this:

 

A running back comes into the league, on average, at say 22 years old. He plays that first season and comes back for year two at age 23. Another full training camp and a long season. Recovers in the offseason, comes back to the next training camp to get ready for season number 3. By now he is 24 years old. Fast forward another year, and that same running back reaches 25 years old by his 4th season in the league. Are you noticing the trend here?

 

When the player finally turns 26, he's already starting his 5th SEASON!! And this is where it gets interesting. He makes it through that 5th season, comes back the following year, which will be his 6th, and the player turns 27. Ouch.

 

A tough schedule later, followed by maybe a playoff appearance, and he comes back the following year, albeit a little tired. Now he's 28 and entering the SEVENTH SEASON OF HIS CAREER!!!!!! Now we are talking longevity people. And if he's lucky and doesn't crash his motorcycle in the offseason, he returns for season #8, which places his age right at 29 years old.

 

Hopefully all of you can grasp this concept. I know it takes some time to try and extrapolate the numbers and really predict the years after age 29. Shoot me a PM and I will lay it out further.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Regardless of its uniform accuracy or lack thereof, this is a quality post. Keep it up, Six Kings.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

I've always looked at the age progression like this:

 

A running back comes into the league, on average, at say 22 years old. He plays that first season and comes back for year two at age 23. Another full training camp and a long season. Recovers in the offseason, comes back to the next training camp to get ready for season number 3. By now he is 24 years old. Fast forward another year, and that same running back reaches 25 years old by his 4th season in the league. Are you noticing the trend here?

 

When the player finally turns 26, he's already starting his 5th SEASON!! And this is where it gets interesting. He makes it through that 5th season, comes back the following year, which will be his 6th, and the player turns 27. Ouch.

 

A tough schedule later, followed by maybe a playoff appearance, and he comes back the following year, albeit a little tired. Now he's 28 and entering the SEVENTH SEASON OF HIS CAREER!!!!!! Now we are talking longevity people. And if he's lucky and doesn't crash his motorcycle in the offseason, he returns for season #8, which places his age right at 29 years old.

 

Hopefully all of you can grasp this concept. I know it takes some time to try and extrapolate the numbers and really predict the years after age 29. Shoot me a PM and I will lay it out further.

 

 

[godtomsatan]

they are pulling these stats all wrong.....it's not how old you are....people age differently...

 

it's all about how many seasons you've played...or started in rather...and how much of a load you carried in the season(s) you didn't start...

 

 

This was my first thought as well.

 

Not to mention he's only using the 64 most successful running backs as his sample. There are many other RBs that were productive for a couple/few seasons but not enough to meet the criteria for this list.

 

A better survey would be 1000 yard seasons by age, or 150 pt fantasy season by age or pro experience level or something along those lines.

 

Still, I already know that it's going to tell you that age 24-27 is a running back's peak, and that anomalies like Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin can't be explained or predicted.

[TecmoBeast]

curtis martin had an awesome line that year, he barely broke any runs over 5 yds. He would just follow his blockers and fall forward for 5 yds.

 

common trend in the older RBs that produce is they know how to minimize hits, they know when to get down

[Crazysight]

A lot of it simply has to do with how they're viewed too. Owners often seem to be after the new young stud at RB, and the older ones often get written off without ever having a real chance at all. Look at what happened to Travis Henry in Buffalo. He had truly superlative numbers as a RB there, but was replaced by a younger Willis McGahee (who has failed to match the numbers that Henry used to have). Since being essentially dismissed by what I feel was his home in Buffalo, Henry has been essentially been lost and has not been able to get back on track as a journeyman. Look at what heppened with Mike Anderson this past offseason after having a great season in Denver last year. Out-with-the-old and in-with-the-new seems to be a mantra of sorts among NFL owners when managing their runningbacks..

[Big Dogs]

I've always looked at the age progression like this:

 

A running back comes into the league, on average, at say 22 years old. He plays that first season and comes back for year two at age 23. Another full training camp and a long season. Recovers in the offseason, comes back to the next training camp to get ready for season number 3. By now he is 24 years old. Fast forward another year, and that same running back reaches 25 years old by his 4th season in the league. Are you noticing the trend here?

 

When the player finally turns 26, he's already starting his 5th SEASON!! And this is where it gets interesting. He makes it through that 5th season, comes back the following year, which will be his 6th, and the player turns 27. Ouch.

 

A tough schedule later, followed by maybe a playoff appearance, and he comes back the following year, albeit a little tired. Now he's 28 and entering the SEVENTH SEASON OF HIS CAREER!!!!!! Now we are talking longevity people. And if he's lucky and doesn't crash his motorcycle in the offseason, he returns for season #8, which places his age right at 29 years old.

 

Hopefully all of you can grasp this concept. I know it takes some time to try and extrapolate the numbers and really predict the years after age 29. Shoot me a PM and I will lay it out further.

 

 

 

So what about guys like Addai who are 23??? When he's 26, will he be in his 3rd season or 4th?? and guys like Bush who are 21, when he's 26, will it be his 2nd or 6th season?

 

All this thinking makes me think its FIXED!!!

[Avernus]

A lot of it simply has to do with how they're viewed too. Owners often seem to be after the new young stud at RB, and the older ones often get written off without ever having a real chance at all. Look at what happened to Travis Henry in Buffalo. He had truly superlative numbers as a RB there, but was replaced by a younger Willis McGahee (who has failed to match the numbers that Henry used to have). Since being essentially dismissed by what I feel was his home in Buffalo, Henry has been essentially been lost and has not been able to get back on track as a journeyman. Look at what heppened with Mike Anderson this past offseason after having a great season in Denver last year. Out-with-the-old and in-with-the-new seems to be a mantra of sorts among NFL owners when managing their runningbacks..

 

 

I follow by this creed in regards to my choice of fantasy back...and then the other tangibles come into play....