Value Plays: Quarterback

[Otis]

Continuing along with the Value Plays series, I'd like to put up my vote for possibly the best bang for your buck QB out there.

 

Jake Delhomme

 

Delhomme has averaged 3,500 yards and 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and has quietly been one of the more consistent and reliable (though unsexy) fantasy quarterbacks around. Now that he's in his 8th year in the NFL and has some milage and experience, but is still young, I think he really starts to hit his stride. Perhaps most importantly, CAR picked up an excellent possession receiver in Keyshawn his offseason. The combination of Steve Smith over the top and Keyshawn over the middle (with Colbert as a very able #3 option) gives the Panthers the best set of receiving options they've had, perhaps ever. Also, consider that Keyshawn is an excellent red-zone option, and we could see Delhomme-to-Keyshawn in some situations where they may otherwise have pounded it in the past few years. Though Delhomme has never thrown for 4,000 yards, this could be the year he does it. At worst, he'll probably be a more reliable passing option on a week-to-week basis than many QB1s. I can easily see Delhomme moving into the Top 5 of fantasy QBs, making him excellent value where he is being drafted at around QB9 or QB10. In other words, let someone else draft McNabb this round -- you can take value at another position, wait until after the turnaround, and scoop up Delhomme there, and you'll get more fantasy production than you will from Donovan.

 

[loaf]

Jon Kitna

[Otis]

Jon Kitna

 

 

 

Agree completely -- he is the next feature here. Feel free to post your reasoning.

[chonchito]

The problem with Delhomme is the Panthers offensive philosophy. I wound up w/him as a starter in one league last year after the culpepper fiasco and in the second half of the season jake was below average. fox likes to run the ball with the lead and is not big on throwing in those situations. fantasywise, that means no garbage points especially b/c carolina d doesn't give up many points.

[Otis]

The problem with Delhomme is the Panthers offensive philosophy. I wound up w/him as a starter in one league last year after the culpepper fiasco and in the second half of the season jake was below average. fox likes to run the ball with the lead and is not big on throwing in those situations. fantasywise, that means no garbage points especially b/c carolina d doesn't give up many points.

 

 

These are good points, and I understand them, but I also think they are the reason he can be had on the cheap in the first place. I've already accounted for this.

 

Also, keep in mind that the Panthers ownership and coaching staff are well aware of Keyshawn Johnson as a player and person. You don't bring in Keyshawn if you don't plan to use him, because that would just end up being a major locker room disaster. Perhaps bringing in Keyshawn is a signal of at least a minor shift away from a run-dominated offense (or perhaps something more than a minor shift)?

[Otis]

While we are tossing names out there, I will add Drew Brees and Aaron Brooks to my list of guys who may be value picks this year.

Edited July 10, 2006 by Otis

[FishFreak]

This years QB crop is DEEP but I think Aaron Brroks & Kurt Warner will provide excellent value.

 

Brooks has received a ton of criticism in his career but has always posted solid fantasy stats except for last year. From 2001-2004 he's delivered 3,500+ passing yards and 25+ total TD's. The change of scenery to the Raiders can only help and he inherits a good RB and solid WR's. Andrew Walter's potential is a concern but is he really ready to lead the Raiders now?

 

Warner is in a great position. He has a ton of weapons and Leinart is rookie. His durability and the O-line are concerns but he will probably outperform a lot higher than drafted.

 

Both Brooks and Warner can be drafted as QB2's that could bump your first QB drafted and turn into every week starters.

[Jackass]

These are good points, and I understand them, but I also think they are the reason he can be had on the cheap in the first place. I've already accounted for this.

 

Also, keep in mind that the Panthers ownership and coaching staff are well aware of Keyshawn Johnson as a player and person. You don't bring in Keyshawn if you don't plan to use him, because that would just end up being a major locker room disaster. Perhaps bringing in Keyshawn is a signal of at least a minor shift away from a run-dominated offense (or perhaps something more than a minor shift)?

 

 

 

i see keyshawn eating somewhat into steve smith's #'s more than really adding to delhommes. as a previous poster pointed out, carolina is a run oriented team. i still think delhomme should be a good value - just don't expect a big increase over last years stats.

[CaptainHook]

While we are tossing names out there, I will add Drew Brees and Aaron Brooks to my list of guys who may be value picks this year.

 

 

You should have your mouth washed out with soap for mentioning Aaron Brooks name. He is a giant turd.

[Otis]

You should have your mouth washed out with soap for mentioning Aaron Brooks name. He is a giant turd.

 

 

As an NFL QB, I agree. But as a fantasy QB, he has consistently been very good (up to that mess last year).

With Randy Moss and Jerry Porter to throw to, he could become really good again.

[Robash]

id have to say bledsoe and warner are in for good years...bledsoe is my main sleeper qb...he seems to be going late which could turn out to be a very good value by seasons end. well thats if the TO factor doesnt blow things apart...but hey, im Giants homer so oh well if it does :P

[Wizards]

I like Brooks (Aaron) because I get him late ---11th-13th rounds and he has an explosive offense at his disposal!! Kurt Warner staying healthy makes me shy away from him and pick Lienart up in the very late rounds to stash away for the day Mrs. Warner calls Denny Green and ticks him off...LOL...Lienart with Boldin, Edge and Fitz..not to mention rookie TE--Pope...is a fantasy dream waiting to happen...could be a wet one

[gilthorp]

You should have your mouth washed out with soap for mentioning Aaron Brooks name. He is a giant turd.

 

 

Hook, you ought to trademark that saying...and start a series.

[DKF]

 

The top 20 QBs are all a value if they are taken late enough. There is just not that much separation between them compared to the other positions.

[Wizards]

Hook, you ought to trademark that saying...and start a series.

 

 

You talking about the Giant Turd LMAO or the Soap saying.......Can see it now...

 

Fantasy Magazine--Name--Giant Turds Subtitle--Get Your Mouth Washed Out for Saying These Names on draft day

 

Categories

 

Soap On a Rope (Can't Completely Drop these Players Yet)

 

Don't Bend Over in the Shower (Players who will your season)

 

You get the idea....pictures can accompany the categories

[Scourge]

Warner

[Hardrocker]

Going back to Delhomme. I think he has good potential and I believe that the Keyshawn Johnson addition helps everyone. People are concerned about Steve Smith being able to meet the high expectations going into this year. Look at his stats from mid 2003 through last year. He missed 2004 with a broken leg, but the second half of 2004 and last year he has been remarkably consistent. Delhomme, without Smith in 04, made Muhsin Muhammed the number one fantasy receiver in a lot of league formats.

 

So, if people cant cover Smith when he is the only threat, adding Keyshawn certainly wont make it easier. And Delhomme cant possibly be less successful when he clearly has demonstrated that if he wants to throw to someone...he can...and he will.

 

The thing that keeps him, IMHO from being more recognized, is that Carolina is a run first, run second, throw when we need to, kind of team. That is not likely to change...but facing a tougher schedule this year may very well mean they need to throw more this year...

 

I like em...both.

[Guest MustOfBeenDrunk]

Rivers - can be had in the 15th round and will put up top 10 numbers.

that makes him the BEST value play

[Pope Flick]

Without digging up the numbers, I think the whole "carolina is a run first team" is a bit of a myth. Going into LAST season if you looked at their output from the second half of the super bowl (where Fox took the wraps off Delhommes arm) you'd see they are not afraid to pass at all.

 

I had Delhomme last year, and must say that it's nice to have all of Steve Smith's numbers wrapped up in your QB.

 

An unmentioned key here is the health of Carolina's RBs which seem to be an annual issue.

[Otis]

Rivers - can be had in the 15th round and will put up top 10 numbers.

that makes him the BEST value play

 

[Hardrocker]

Without digging up the numbers, I think the whole "carolina is a run first team" is a bit of a myth. Going into LAST season if you looked at their output from the second half of the super bowl (where Fox took the wraps off Delhommes arm) you'd see they are not afraid to pass at all.

 

I had Delhomme last year, and must say that it's nice to have all of Steve Smith's numbers wrapped up in your QB.

 

An unmentioned key here is the health of Carolina's RBs which seem to be an annual issue.

 

 

Pope,

 

I agree with you that it is somewhat of a myth...Carolina prefers to smash the football, but as I said in my earlier post Delhomme has managed two fantastic individual fantasy seasons in 04 & 05. 2003 really wasn't bad either. I think it is true that he is overlooked and has become pretty bankable and he frequently comes at a low cost...which to me is the definition of value.

[chonchito]

Without digging up the numbers, I think the whole "carolina is a run first team" is a bit of a myth. Going into LAST season if you looked at their output from the second half of the super bowl (where Fox took the wraps off Delhommes arm) you'd see they are not afraid to pass at all.

 

I had Delhomme last year, and must say that it's nice to have all of Steve Smith's numbers wrapped up in your QB.

 

An unmentioned key here is the health of Carolina's RBs which seem to be an annual issue.

 

 

Well in checking delhomme's stats from the last nine games of last season, he had two tds passing in a game three times and one game he had one throwing, one rushing. one game he had no tds and the others he threw for one. those numbers are decent i guess. however, his high in passing yards for those games was 260. in four of the nine games he threw for over 200 yards. the others he was under 200. basically, delhomme as a fantasy qb during that stretch was probably good enough not to blow up your team, but definitely not good enough to win you games.

Edited July 12, 2006 by chonchito

[yo mama]

The top 20 QBs are all a value if they are taken late enough.

 

Bingo.

 

Though, as far as a QB who will could easily fall farther than he should, I'm surprised no one has mentioned McNair yet. Boller was good for a number of multiple TD games last year, and McNair is a better QB than Boller. Raven's DEF isn't as dominant as it once was. Heap is healthy. Early reports have Manson and McNair clicking. Mark Clayton looks like the real deal. And Jamal Lewis no longer appears willing and/or able to carry the team on his back solo.

 

Names like Warner, Delhomme, and to an extent Bledsoe are very in vogue right now as "value" plays, and for good reason. But McNair deserves to considered in that batch of borderline #1/elite #2 QBs. I just think that if a draft were to happen right now, he'd fall farther than Warner, Delhomme, or Bledsoe.

Edited July 12, 2006 by yo mama

[Randall]

Rivers - can be had in the 15th round and will put up top 10 numbers.

that makes him the BEST value play

 

 

 

He hasn't played yet.

[loaf]

I think Kitna might be one of the best values to be had. In his time with Cinci, he threw for 26 TDs in a season. I don't remember the OC at the time but that still is a decent number for a guy that so far this season, is looking to be your backup. This year he's got Mike Martz. Say what you will about Martz but he does like to air it out. With Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and of course, Roy Williams - Kitna's got a lot at his disposal. Yeah, he's got to learn a new offense but still, we know the kid can play. His INTs are an issue but still, we're talking about value plays here.