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Abnormally High Number of RBBCs and sticky RB situations this year


SpinalTapp
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I have never seen so many RBBCs or risky running back situations in the past five years. The following teams have RBBCs or risky RB situations - Pittsburgh, Carolina, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Tennesee, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, New England, Indy, Baltimore, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Chicago, and San Francisco. That is 17 out of 32 teams where there is total or partial instability at the RB position.

 

Is this a natural cycle in the NFL or is the league entering a new era where RBBCs are the norm?

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I have never seen so many RBBCs or risky running back situations in the past five years. The following teams have RBBCs or risky RB situations - Pittsburgh, Carolina, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Tennesee, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, New England, Indy, Baltimore, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Chicago, and San Francisco. That is 17 out of 32 teams where there is total or partial instability at the RB position.

 

Is this a natural cycle in the NFL or is the league entering a new era where RBBCs are the norm?

 

 

Just an FYI... I'm pretty sure the Vikings are set on using Chester Taylor as an exclusive #1 RB. Birk (Vikings Center) was on KFAN this morning and pretty much said that Moore would be seeing less action this year and that Taylor would be the guy.

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I have never seen so many RBBCs or risky running back situations in the past five years. The following teams have RBBCs or risky RB situations - Pittsburgh, Carolina, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Tennesee, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, New England, Indy, Baltimore, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Chicago, and San Francisco. That is 17 out of 32 teams where there is total or partial instability at the RB position.

 

Is this a natural cycle in the NFL or is the league entering a new era where RBBCs are the norm?

 

:D I think you have some validity here, some more than others...

 

Pittsburgh: I just don't see Duce mattering much. Haynes should see some time, as should Humes. But I would be just fine with Parker as a starting fantasy RB. Maybe not RB1, but certainly as a starting RB2. Edit: So, I don't see this as a "traditional" RBBC.

 

Carolina: Honestly, this job is Foster's unless there's a continuation of the injury concerns. Edit: No true RBBC here, either. There'll be a feature back, backup and perhaps change-of-pace/short yardage back.

 

Minnesota: Like SB noted above, this job is Taylor's. Edit: Not an RBBC, IMO.

 

Green Bay: Yeah this could get messy with the fan favorite Gado and incumbent Green. Health will be an issue here. Edit: See Carolina.

 

New Orleans: This could be an issue, but I think both Deuce and Bush will hold value, regardless of the "split". Edit: This will probably be the closest thing to an RBBC.

 

Tennessee: This one's somewhat like Carolina. Perhaps a bit more action for White in spelling Brown. I don't think Henry has much value, even if Chrissy Brown gets hurt (again). Edit: This COULD become a messy RBBC.

 

Detroit: I don't understand why they're on your list, frankly. They have a couple of decent 3rd down backs, but no one to challenge Jones. Edit: No RBBC here. Feature back with a host of backups.

 

Atlanta: I think we're all used to this situation by now. Unless you think Norwood is going to make some noise. Edit: Same Falcon RBBC we've seen, I believe.

 

Dallas: This could be a sticky situation. Jones has the talent, but I think Barber gets more than a shot. Edit: This could certainly be an RBBC.

 

Denver: Hi, welcome to fantasy football.

 

NE: Hi, welcome to Bill Belichick football. Edit: And it got messier with the drafting of Maroney.

 

Indy: In the pre-season, this is one to watch. But I think whoever grabs hold of the job will keep it. Edit: No RBBC.

 

Baltimore: Unless Lewis completely flops or gets hurt, I seriously doubt the old, injury-prone ex-Marine will matter much. Edit: No RBBC, situation like Carolina - if anything.

 

NYJ: ??? Unless CuMar gets hurt, I don't see how this is much of a concern/issue. Edit: No RBBC.

 

Jacksonville: Hi, welcome to Freddyland. This may be a mess.

 

Chicago: I think TJ may be traded. If not, he'll start again this season. The off-season posturing is just that: posturing.

 

SF: Gore is most likely going to get the nod here. They have nothing to lose but give him a shot.

 

So, all in all, I agree to a point on some of those... but perhaps I have more faith in certain situations. Hey, it's only July... things will change in the next month or so.

Edited by darin3
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:D I think you have some validity here, some more than others...

 

 

Carolina: Honestly, this job is Foster's unless there's a continuation of the injury concerns. Edit: No true RBBC here, either. There'll be a feature back, backup and perhaps change-of-pace/short yardage back.

 

So, all in all, I agree to a point on some of those... but perhaps I have more faith in certain situations. Hey, it's only July... things will change in the next month or so.

 

 

 

Yes a lot of people think situations like this are RBBC, but eally aren't. Fred Taylor and Thomas Davis routinely got hurt too(Davis once when ansering the phone) but turned it around.

 

Many teams want one RB, but need a healthy one. Foster could stay healthy and have a great year, or be replaced early.

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Virtually every HC in the league wants one horse that can handle the full load. The problem is finding that guy. If there isn't one bonafide RB that can do it all, coaches simply go to the next level down - use RBs where their strengths dictate their being used and bring in another RB when the first RB is in a situation where his weaknesses are a detriment.

 

DEN is the perfect example. Shanahan loves to use one RB to do it all, and he firmly believes that RBs get better as they accumulate carries in a game, finding nuances in the defenses and being able to feel out D weaknesses & exploit them as the game progresses.

 

Shanahan changed his offense once he got Portis in the backfield, though. He didn't rely on RBs catching the football much - check TD's receiving numbers - but in his offense they didn't have to, the FB & the TE handled the swing/flats stuff in the passing game. Then Portis emerged with his hands & his speed, and Shanahan fell in love with speed - and it hurt the team after Portis left because he was looking for speed guys that could catch out of the backfield as well as pound the ball. That, IMO, was the reason he went so long with the failed Q Griffin experiment, and why he drafted Bell in the second round.

 

He realized that speed RBs that could also carry the ball 25 ties a game were a rare commodity, so last year he went with a RBBC intentionally for the first time in his tenure in DEN. He used Anderson to pound the ball & catch out of the backfield, but he used Bell as a CoP RB to utilize his homerun threat. That also threw Ds off balance because Anderson & Bell were such different RBs, and as a result he got superb results out of the tandem because Anderson & Bell were 2 RBs who covered each other's weaknesses. Now it looks like he's committed to going RBBC again with Dayne in the Anderson role & Bell again being the CoP. Dayne has shown that he can absorb a lot of work and he fits well in the zone blocking scheme, while Bell again brings the homerun threat to the table even though he is inconsistent as all get out.

 

What that allows Shanahan to do is ignore the RB position in the draft since he has guys he feels are capable of becoming a stud RB with their combined numbers, and he can address other positions of weakness on the team - like WR and backup QB. Other coaches see the same thing - there are a lot of solid to very good RBs in the league, while there are seemingly fewer unquestioned studs. They're going to carry 3 to 4 RBs on the roster anyhow, so why not create a tandem that has the physical qualities combined as a stud RB carries by themselves - and bolster other positions instead?

 

That's just good coaching. It may suck for FFers, but you can still find guys that will put up good numbers - albeit not great - and be functional FF RBs, provided you can read the coach & figure out which RB he will rely upon more. But FFers need to start doing the same thing - find a way to build strength around the lesser starting FF RBs with the difference in scoring by great players at other positions. That's where the great and very good FF owners will excel while others will draft RBs way too early and lose value in the draft.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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RBBC seems to be a more popular trend this year. I believe you'll see the top WR and a few top QB's going a little earlier than normaly. I have the 7th pick in a 12 team league and I'll probably go WR in the second unless a RB drops for some strange reason. The depth at the RB position just isn't there like in years pasted...

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I have no doubt Taylor will be the intended starter in Minnesota. I am more worried about the role Fason will play as he vulchers all the TDs from Chester. The committee in Minn will not be Moore and Taylor, it will be Taylor and Fason with Moore just hanging around to make matters more uncertain if Taylor stumbles for a minute.

 

Also remember, I did not make the claim that all these situations were RBBCs. I mentioned that there was partial or total instability at the RB position including RBBCs or risky starting RBs...

 

Dillon is a risk (old), KJ is a risk (cant stay on field), JLewis is a risk (injuries and lost a few steps), JJones is a risk (injury), Dunn is a risk (old), and DFoster is a total risk.

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one thing about darin's post...he was right about all except Indy....they plan on using a 2 back set with both Rhodes and addai at the same time

 

 

and we said this about RBBC last year....what tends to make this even worse is when the non-RBBC starting backs get hurt for the season in pre-season and the RBBC ones stay the same....

 

then everyone starts scrambling for backs...

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I think that this fear is probably a bit overblown as it usually is at this point in the season. First of all, there are rbbc situations that still produce quality fantasy starters each year such as mike anderson/bell and dunn/duckett last year. also, it is still weeks before training camp even starts, and it would surprise me if at least some portion of some projected committees don't get hurt or one of the rbs surpasses the other. If not in training camp, this is sure to happen during the season. i read an article on another fantasy site, whose name i won't mention for fear of violating huddle rules, which basically analyzed the alleged trend to rbbc for the past four seasons and found that the top rb on each team carried the ball on average about 250 times per season. now i realize that those numbers are skewed by workhouse rbs like alexander, lt, barber, etc. carrying the ball 300+ times. however, injuries to the #1 rb on other teams, i.e. deuce, dom davis, skew the numbers back the other way as well. as we get closer to the beginning of the season i would expect at least some of these sitations to work themselves out and you can always draft both parts of the rbbc and have a good shot of having one of the two be the primary rusher in most games due to injury or performance.

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At this point in time, I have to disagree with Darin's take on the Jets. The Jets will run the ball 400 times, as a safe bet. I honestly don't see Martin getting 250 of them.... probably closer to 200, and that's only if he stays healthy. The team has come out and said his days of 350 carries are over, and I think they will use this year to get some playing time for Houston, Blaylock and Washigton to evaluate what future role they might have on this team. I think they want to phase Martin out, but keep him around as a mentor for the youg RB for the next couple of years, sort of what happened with Faulk.

 

Based on what happens this year will have a lot to do with how early they go RB in the next draft.... they want to see what they have first. My guess is Houston becomes the short yardage guy, while Blaylock and Washington will battle it out for COP and 3 rd down duties.

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one thing about darin's post...he was right about all except Indy....they plan on using a 2 back set with both Rhodes and addai at the same time

 

 

They've said they're going to try it sometimes, but I'd be surprised if they did it very often at all. Think about it: who's going to come off the field to make room for two RBs? The Colts run a lot of two-TE sets AND also talks about wanting to get Stokely more involved again. That's why they almost always ran a 1-RB set with James in the backfield.

 

I've said this before and I'll say it again -- they drafted Addai specifically because he has the same kind of versatility that James has. He can run, catch, and block. He may not do any of those things as well as James, but his combined abilities surpass Rhodes' easily.

 

I bet CaptainHook can verify this. :D

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They've said they're going to try it sometimes, but I'd be surprised if they did it very often at all. Think about it: who's going to come off the field to make room for two RBs? The Colts run a lot of two-TE sets AND also talks about wanting to get Stokely more involved again. That's why they almost always ran a 1-RB set with James in the backfield.

 

I've said this before and I'll say it again -- they drafted Addai specifically because he has the same kind of versatility that James has. He can run, catch, and block. He may not do any of those things as well as James, but his combined abilities surpass Rhodes' easily.

 

I bet CaptainHook can verify this. :D

 

 

Every year since Edge arrived the Colts have talked about using two-back sets. Fred Lane. Abdul-Jabbar. Rhodes. Every year, the Colts would rely on only one back. They have some packages for two backs, usually inside the 5 yard line. I don't imagine seeing Rhodes and Addai on the field together all that much. It doesn't make much sense.

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I've said this before and I'll say it again -- they drafted Addai specifically because he has the same kind of versatility that James has. He can run, catch, and block. He may not do any of those things as well as James, but his combined abilities surpass Rhodes' easily.

 

 

 

 

LOL of comapring Addai to James in any way. One thing I know to be a fact, between Rhodes & Addai, only one of them has a 1100+ rushing yard season in the NFL on their resume.

 

To simply cast aside Rhodes because IND panicked and selected Addai - who has some significant warts - is going to provide some FF owners with some great value in upcoming drafts.

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To simply cast aside Rhodes because IND panicked and selected Addai - who has some significant warts - is going to provide some FF owners with some great value in upcoming drafts.

 

You obviously haven't seen Rhodes play since 2001 . . .

 

:D at "panicked". You don't think they needed another back on their roster? Especially with Rhodes' injury history since 2001?

Edited by CaptainHook
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LOL of comapring Addai to James in any way. One thing I know to be a fact, between Rhodes & Addai, only one of them has a 1100+ rushing yard season in the NFL on their resume.

 

 

 

 

there is a hugh difference between the two backs...

 

Indy traded Faulk and handed Edge the reigns and didn't look back for 8 seasons....

 

they let Edge go in FA for Addai who is already competing with Edge's backup and not being named the auto-starter...

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You obviously haven't seen Rhodes play since 2001 . . .

 

:D at "panicked". You don't think they needed another back on their roster? Especially with Rhodes' injury history since 2001?

 

 

I think they absolutely had to get another RB on that roster, given who is on the roster at that position. That doesn't mean that the RB added is: 1) automatically going to be the starter, and 2) going to put up numbers similar to a healthy Edge.

 

IND absolutely panicked when they took Addai. IND had to get a solid RB out of this draft, given that Rhodes is the only RB on their roster who has ever proven anything at the NFL level. If Rhodes were to get hurt, IND would have been in a similar situation as CAR was in the playoffs, becoming a completely 1-dimensional team on offense. IND's window for being a bonafide contender for the Super Bowl is closing quickly, and they can't get past their nemesis NE in the playoffs. Then NE adds Maroney & the pressure was on for IND to get someone in the backfield who they felt could make an impact quickly.

 

The top 3 RBs were off the board, and LenDale White didn't fit their offense. There was a good chance Addai, Calhoun, and Norwood, who all fit the IND O well were going to be off the board by the time their 2nd rounder came back around, and Drew is way too small to handle anything more than a CoP role in the NFL. So IND panicked, reached, and took Addai in the first.

 

Addai is one of those guys who looks great in shorts & tees - he's got great straight line speed on the track, he's got decent strength, and his height/weight ratio is outstanding. But when the pads go on, Addai plays much smaller & slower than he is on the track, doesn't have good burst to the hole - especially given how quickly holes close in the NFL - runs very upright, and has a significant injury history. Then you add that IND's O-line is probably the best pass blocking line in the NFL but they don't drive block especially well, and you see a RB pick that IND may very well end up regretting, and it may be the pick that begins the fall from contention.

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I think they absolutely had to get another RB on that roster, given who is on the roster at that position. That doesn't mean that the RB added is: 1) automatically going to be the starter, and 2) going to put up numbers similar to a healthy Edge.

 

IND absolutely panicked when they took Addai. IND had to get a solid RB out of this draft, given that Rhodes is the only RB on their roster who has ever proven anything at the NFL level. If Rhodes were to get hurt, IND would have been in a similar situation as CAR was in the playoffs, becoming a completely 1-dimensional team on offense. IND's window for being a bonafide contender for the Super Bowl is closing quickly, and they can't get past their nemesis NE in the playoffs. Then NE adds Maroney & the pressure was on for IND to get someone in the backfield who they felt could make an impact quickly.

 

The top 3 RBs were off the board, and LenDale White didn't fit their offense. There was a good chance Addai, Calhoun, and Norwood, who all fit the IND O well were going to be off the board by the time their 2nd rounder came back around, and Drew is way too small to handle anything more than a CoP role in the NFL. So IND panicked, reached, and took Addai in the first.

 

Addai is one of those guys who looks great in shorts & tees - he's got great straight line speed on the track, he's got decent strength, and his height/weight ratio is outstanding. But when the pads go on, Addai plays much smaller & slower than he is on the track, doesn't have good burst to the hole - especially given how quickly holes close in the NFL - runs very upright, and has a significant injury history. Then you add that IND's O-line is probably the best pass blocking line in the NFL but they don't drive block especially well, and you see a RB pick that IND may very well end up regretting, and it may be the pick that begins the fall from contention.

 

 

Using "panicked" is laughable. There were several other opportunities to pick up a vet via trade or free agency. Rhodes was the only RB on their roster???? Have you heard of James Mungro? He's filled in for Edge a couple times. And done quite well, I might add.

 

The Colts did not have a lot of glaring needs to fill, so they went with the best back left on their board. The other guys you mention as second rounders are nothing better than RBBC guys. A lot of mocks had Calhoun listed for the Colts . . . no thanks. And I did see a few mocks with Addai listed for the Colts.

 

We'll see soon enough how good Addai is. But you might want to check the Colts', and Bill Polian's, resume' on first round picks. It's pretty good. It could be worse. They could have drafted a running back that had been out of football for a couple years, and was projected as a late round pick, in the third round. How'd that turn out? I bet Addai makes the roster. . .

Edited by CaptainHook
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Using "panicked" is laughable. There were several other opportunities to pick up a vet via trade or free agency. Rhodes was the only RB on their roster???? Have you heard of James Mungro? He's filled in for Edge a couple times. And done quite well, I might add.

 

The Colts did not have a lot of glaring needs to fill, so they went with the best back left on their board. The other guys you mention as second rounders are nothing better than RBBC guys. A lot of mocks had Calhoun listed for the Colts . . . no thanks. And I did see a few mocks with Addai listed for the Colts.

 

We'll see soon enough how good Addai is. But you might want to check the Colts', and Bill Polian's, resume' on first round picks. It's pretty good. It could be worse. They could have drafted a running back that had been out of football for a couple years, and was projected as a late round pick, in the third round. How'd that turn out? I bet Addai makes the roster. . .

 

 

Mungro?! You mean that stud James Mungro? The one who has gained a grand total of 94 yds rushing on 36 carries and has 2 rushing TDs over the past 3 years? The one with a career 3.2 ypc? Yeah, I forgot all about that stud. It's hard to believe Edge had enough talent to keep him on the bench...

 

:D

 

And I'm sure that Addai will make the team. NFL teams rarely jettison 1st round draft picks before their first season ever starts. That was really going out on a limb with that bold prediction.

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Mungro?! You mean that stud James Mungro? The one who has gained a grand total of 94 yds rushing on 36 carries and has 2 rushing TDs over the past 3 years? The one with a career 3.2 ypc? Yeah, I forgot all about that stud. It's hard to believe Edge had enough talent to keep him on the bench...

 

:D

 

And I'm sure that Addai will make the team. NFL teams rarely jettison 1st round draft picks before their first season ever starts. That was really going out on a limb with that bold prediction.

 

 

BB -- was Hook's sarcastic jab really lost on you? That's hard to believe. :D He was referring to Clarett, which really was one of the silliest, most arrogant picks I've ever seen.

 

It's impossible to say how good or bad Addai will be in the NFL, but it's not really relevant to this discussion. I KNOW Rhodes hasn't done jack sh*t since his rookie year, so I could argue that his chances of suddenly blowing up aren't any better than Addai's.

 

So where does that leave us? When eventual production is impossible to predict, what matters is what the team's intentions are. I can't imagine they'd draft the ONE back in the draft who can run, catch, and block in a 1-back set...and then not use him in a 1-back set.

 

Did I mention that the 1-back set is the preferred formation in Indy? It seems pretty simple to me. Those of you thinking that Rhodes will be a great "value pick" in this year's draft just aren't looking at the big picture.

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And I'm sure that Addai will make the team. NFL teams rarely jettison 1st round draft picks before their first season ever starts. That was really going out on a limb with that bold prediction.

 

 

That one really went over your head, eh?

 

Mungro hasn't had many opportunities as a starter. When he has:

 

11/10/02 at Philly: 28 carries 114 yards 2 TD 2 receptions 20 yards

 

And in relief:

 

12/15/02 at Clev: 14 carries 75 yards 2 TD 2 receptions 8 yards

 

By the way, both of the above performances are better than ANYTHING Rhodes has done in the past 4 years . . . But don't let that stop you from blabbering on about how great Domanic is . . .

Edited by CaptainHook
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By the way, both of the above performances are better than ANYTHING Rhodes has done in the past 4 years . . . But don't let that stop you from blabbering on about how great Domanic is . . .

 

I don't get the love for Rhodes, either.

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