Bill Swerski Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 You're right...it was GAME 10, not WEEK 10. There was a bye in there. Either way, Roaf was out injured for the 211 yarder in week 11. Here's the link I got the info from... http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396164/gamelogs/2005 Yes, against the mighty Texans. No offense to LJ or the people that slobber all over his nuts, but I'm still surprised that so many people think that losing a future HOF left tackle isn't going to have a significant negative impact on a team's running game. I mean, Priest wasn't anything more than an above-average halfback before KC acquired Roaf. And then everyone thought that he was the second coming of Marcus Allen. But when the mighty Priest got injured and LJ stepped in and suddenly turned into Priest II, few people were willing to give credit to the O-line. Nope, Larry Johnson and Priest were really THAT good... it had nothing to do with the fact that Roaf and Will Shields, arguably the best tackles and guards of their generation, were blowing holes through defensive lines large enough to drive a Hummer through. Nope, the Chiefs just happened to land two of the most prolific rushers in NFL history within a couple years of each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 C'mon guys, it's not like this announcement shocked the Chiefs nor should it shock the fantasy world. The Chief OL is old and I'm sure replacements are being groomed. If anything, this keeps LJ's expectations more in line. A lot of people seemed to be assuming he was automatic to get 2,000+ rushing yards and 20+ TD's. The great thing about LJ is the massive number of touches he gets. If he can withstand the pounding and stay healthy, he's still the no. 1 pick. LT is gonna face eight man fronts constantly with Rivers at QB and Alexander is minus Hutchinson on the left side. Besides, the Chiefs are at least comfortable playing without Roaf for six games last year. I'm more concerned about the loss of his FB Richardson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 Yes, against the mighty Texans. No offense to LJ or the people that slobber all over his nuts, but I'm still surprised that so many people think that losing a future HOF left tackle isn't going to have a significant negative impact on a team's running game. I mean, Priest wasn't anything more than an above-average halfback before KC acquired Roaf. And then everyone thought that he was the second coming of Marcus Allen. But when the mighty Priest got injured and LJ stepped in and suddenly turned into Priest II, few people were willing to give credit to the O-line. Nope, Larry Johnson and Priest were really THAT good... it had nothing to do with the fact that Roaf and Will Shields, arguably the best tackles and guards of their generation, were blowing holes through defensive lines large enough to drive a Hummer through. Nope, the Chiefs just happened to land two of the most prolific rushers in NFL history within a couple years of each other. Now is where we disagree! You know this is BS Bill, everyone has given credit to the line, period, everyone talks about the line and the reason the running game has been successful. Holmes was a product of his line and waiting for the holes to open, LJ learned a lot from PH too. Now LJ runs mean, and runs over people, something PH never did, LJ is the better RB, and he will get his. Remember a guy name LT who had no line and still racked up some terrific stats? LJ too is that same type of feared runner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 C'mon guys, it's not like this announcement shocked the Chiefs nor should it shock the fantasy world. The Chief OL is old and I'm sure replacements are being groomed. If anything, this keeps LJ's expectations more in line. A lot of people seemed to be assuming he was automatic to get 2,000+ rushing yards and 20+ TD's. The great thing about LJ is the massive number of touches he gets. If he can withstand the pounding and stay healthy, he's still the no. 1 pick. LT is gonna face eight man fronts constantly with Rivers at QB and Alexander is minus Hutchinson on the left side. Besides, the Chiefs are at least comfortable playing without Roaf for six games last year. I'm more concerned about the loss of his FB Richardson. The difference between LJ and LT is that LT has actually excelled behind an awful line and with a sub-par QB (Flutie and Brees prior to his breakout year). The only negative regarding LT is that he has more mileage. No way that LJ is the #1 pick with Roaf and Welbourn retired, Richardson gone, and an inferior HC and OC running the show. SA and LT are both ahead of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 Now is where we disagree! You know this is BS Bill, everyone has given credit to the line, period, everyone talks about the line and the reason the running game has been successful. Holmes was a product of his line and waiting for the holes to open, LJ learned a lot from PH too. Now LJ runs mean, and runs over people, something PH never did, LJ is the better RB, and he will get his. Remember a guy name LT who had no line and still racked up some terrific stats? LJ too is that same type of feared runner. No, not everyone. Maybe everyone who knows that they're talking about, but certainly not everyone at The Huddle. Regarding the comparison of LJ and Priest, I tend to agree that LJ is the better between-the-tackles guy. But he has a lot to prove before he can be mentioned in the same breath as LT. LJ is a talented back, but I have yet to see evidence that he's as talented as LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 okay...here's how his week to week breakdown looks 1. vs Bengals - easy rushing opponent... 2. @ Broncos - horrible matchup 3. very early BYE 4. vs 49ers - fantastic matchup for LJ 5. @ Cardinals - up and coming defense that he should still tear apart.. 6. @ Steelers - I see the steelers offense not being able to chew the clock as much and this will tire the defense more...I say a so-so matchup... 7. vs Chargers - I like this matchup at home.. 8. vs Seahawks - I don't see Seattle's D playing great @KC...LJ has a monster game 9. @ Rams - the Rams got better up front...but I still say LJ runs all over them in the dome.. 10. @ Dolphins - I think their defense is getting weaker, but they are well coached....he'll have an average game... 11. vs Raiders - he should have another strong week 12. vs Broncos - so-so week...but it'll be a letdown compared to the previous 3 games... 13. @ Cleveland - I think the Browns defense will be strong...and this will be another so-so game.. 14. vs Ravens - the Ravens defense didn't scare me last year...but now they have a QB that can keep the D off the field...against KC, the defense should stay fresh....average game 15. @ Chargers - I say this will be a bounceback game late...good game.. 16. @ raiders - I see another strong game... 17. vs Jaguars - this game is meaningless to fantasy owners....but if the Chiefs have no playoff hope at this point, I expect him to be sitting this one out... his matchups have peaks and valleys....a couple strong games...a couple weak ones.... if you can make the playoffs and survive the Ravens matchup...then it looks like you have some decent games out of him.... I could be wrong about a couple defenses...but this is how I see his schedule....if healthy, he'll get 1600 yds and 15 TD's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 No, not everyone. Maybe everyone who knows that they're talking about, but certainly not everyone at The Huddle. Regarding the comparison of LJ and Priest, I tend to agree that LJ is the better between-the-tackles guy. But he has a lot to prove before he can be mentioned in the same breath as LT. LJ is a talented back, but I have yet to see evidence that he's as talented as LT. his best runs are pitches to the outside where he waits for the blockers to pull and then he finds the guy he wants to run over and take it where he wants.... Roaf was great with this...his backup...ehh it remains to be seen... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 C'mon guys, it's not like this announcement shocked the Chiefs nor should it shock the fantasy world. The Chief OL is old and I'm sure replacements are being groomed. If anything, this keeps LJ's expectations more in line. A lot of people seemed to be assuming he was automatic to get 2,000+ rushing yards and 20+ TD's. The great thing about LJ is the massive number of touches he gets. If he can withstand the pounding and stay healthy, he's still the no. 1 pick. LT is gonna face eight man fronts constantly with Rivers at QB and Alexander is minus Hutchinson on the left side. Besides, the Chiefs are at least comfortable playing without Roaf for six games last year. I'm more concerned about the loss of his FB Richardson. Got it, so losing Hutch hurts Alexander but losing Roaf doesn't hurt LJ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungBob Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 I think this hurts Gonzo more then LJ for the simple fact that when Roaf was out last year, Gonzo had to block more. While his numbers didnt drop too far overall, his redzone production did. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 +1 +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 I've never seen any offensive lineman as dominant as Willie Roaf was last year. Granted, I've only seen a small percentage of the great ones. The play that sticks out in my head is Willie Roaf running in open field, LJ running/jogging patiently behind him, Roaf pancaking some guy and LJ making one move that leads to a huge gain. They seemed to do that play over and over again, and the defenses never seemed to figure out how to stop it. The loss of Roaf will have a negative ripple effect through the entire Chiefs offense, as opposing defenses can honor the other aspects of the offense. Couple this with the loss of an excellant fullback and an essentially new coaching staff, it's almost as if LJ has been traded. I could see a year where all 3 of the top picks are flops. Shaun Alexander's body can't be far from breaking down. Some running backs can carry the ball 300 times a year and do so into their 30's. Most can't. Most suddenly fall off the face of the earth. Everyone acts surprised, but it's about as surprising as a 80-year old man dying of a heart attack. Add to this the loss of Hutch and Holmgren, who wouldn't mind at all switching to a more pass oriented offense and might have the tools to do it. Ladainian seems to be the most impervious to problems with the rest of his team. He can create the most on his own. However, "nagging" injuries two years in a row isn't a good thing for a running back. It too could be a sign that LT is also breaking down. Still, I'd venture a guess that Ladainian is the least likely to flop. I agree with the top 3 being flops... I think next year, we are going to see a top 5 rearranged from this year almost completely... not that the top 3 won't be in the top 5...but they won't be 1-2-3 in whichever order you like... I really dread the 1 and 2 spot this year....because my gut tells me to try and trade the player I get there... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 Check out this article on fanball.com which states how Roaf's retirement could hurt Gonzo a lot more than LJ. http://www.fanball.com/fb/article.cfm/ID.7060 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 Check out this article on fanball.com which states how Roaf's retirement could hurt Gonzo a lot more than LJ. http://www.fanball.com/fb/article.cfm/ID.7060 Is this guy an idiot? Johnson with Roaf Games Rush Yds/Gm Yds/Carry Rec. Yds/Gm Total TDs 5 180 5.1 35 4 Johnson without Roaf Games Rush Yds/Gm Yds/Carry Rec. Yds/Gm Total TDs 3 150 5.3 33 13 The Quote: "I guess [the Chiefs] want me to reconsider,' Roaf told The Kansas City Star. "I'm solid on retiring and going back to school.' Fantasy Analysis: As you can see above, having Roaf in the lineup allowed Johnson to run for 30 yards more per game and find the end zone on a far more frequent basis. However, those numbers also reveal that Larry was racking up yardage and scoring at a healthy clip even when his big tackle was on the sidelines. If fantasy owners took the yardage he posted without Roaf and extrapolated that over 16 games, it would result in a 2,400-yard campaign. Yeah, we'll take that. It clearly shows he scored 3x as many TD's in LESS games w/o willie in there. Plus the loss of 30 yards is not that big a deal, give him those other two games w/o roaf and that may have evened out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 Could this all be about money? Two months ago Roaf was "spry as a cat" and working out as hard as he ever has. And now he retires in late July? In 2005, he was the 26th highest paid tackle in the league with a cap number of $3.05 million. Modified:7/28/2006 1:10:19 PM Chiefs' Roaf Intends to Retire RIVER FALLS, WIS. - FOX 4 Sports Director Frank Boal reports from Chiefs training camp that offensive tackle Willie Roaf has announced his intensions to retire. The Chiefs still have Roaf on the roster, even though he didn't report to training camp. Roaf is a 10 time Pro-Bowler. His career with the Chiefs began in 2002 in a trade with New Orleans. Roaf has told the Chiefs about his intention to retire. However, he has not informed the NFL officially about his retirement wishes. There are some conspiracy theories, accoding to report Check back with FOX 4 throughout the day for updates on this developing story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budlitebrad Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 I guess Carl should have saved some of that Ty Law money for a new LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 (edited) kc MAY have a replacement for roaf. but Richardson is the bigger loss imo. KC used the FB more than any other team to successfully run the pill. Richardson was an absolute wrecking ball. Checkout this highlight reel with Priest from '03 and '04. You'll notice a pattern... Richardson to the point of attack, smash, Priest follows. Or Richardson makes it to the 2nd and 3rd level turning Priest's 10-15yd gain into a 40yd TD. I couldn't find a comparable clip of LJ but I'd be willing to bet it looks very similar... Exhibit A players like Richardson don't come around but 2-3 times a decade. Edited July 28, 2006 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 The loss of Roaf will have a negative ripple effect through the entire Chiefs offense, as opposing defenses can honor the other aspects of the offense. Couple this with the loss of an excellant fullback and an essentially new coaching staff, it's almost as if LJ has been traded. This is the best summary of how we should probably view LJ's opportunities for success next year. He was traded to a new team (but will be wearing the same jersey). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 kc MAY have a replacement for roaf. but Richardson is the bigger loss imo. KC used the FB more than any other team to successfully run the pill. Richardson was an absolute wrecking ball. Checkout this highlight reel with Priest from '03 and '04. You'll notice a pattern... Richardson to the point of attack, smash, Priest follows. Or Richardson makes it to the 2nd and 3rd level turning Priest's 10-15yd gain into a 40yd TD. I couldn't find a comparable clip of LJ but I'd be willing to bet it looks very similar... Exhibit A players like Richardson don't come around but 2-3 times a decade. Outside of Lorenzo Neal, I can't think of a better blocking FB. Eddie George's numbers took a serious hit once TEN released Neal. After watching those highlights, I'm reminded that I won't miss Priest showing up opposing defenses with his little arm gesture after he crossed the stripe. I'm surprised that nobody knocked him on his ass after doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samurai30 Posted July 29, 2006 Share Posted July 29, 2006 The difference between LJ and LT is that LT has actually excelled behind an awful line and with a sub-par QB (Flutie and Brees prior to his breakout year). The only negative regarding LT is that he has more mileage. The difference? You can't say that cause LJ has never had an awful line. Maybe after this year you can compare the 2 because LJ's OL is getting worse.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted July 29, 2006 Share Posted July 29, 2006 The difference? You can't say that cause LJ has never had an awful line. Maybe after this year you can compare the 2 because LJ's OL is getting worse.. Actually, I can say it. LT has gotten it done behind a crappy line and, through no fault of his own, LJ hasn't. That's one reason that I'd draft LT before LJ... one is proven in that regard and the other isn't at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted July 29, 2006 Share Posted July 29, 2006 (edited) This may be the "I'm a veteran and don't want to go through training camp for the next 6 weeks" disease. And FWIW, this doesn't change much IMO. The Chiefs still have the BEST interior line in the game: Shields Wiegemann Waters So you will see LJ go more through the middle than the usual left position, with Gonzalez going in motion to clear space on either side of the line. The reality is that this may actually IMPROVE Johnson's numbers in that they will run more to protect Green. The Chiefs aren't going to throw alot because they don't want to leave Jordan Black alone to protect Green's blindside. And this really plays into the Chiefs change of philosophy anyway: a shift to a more defensive minded team coupled with the more ball control offense. In other words, a slight move towards the Chiefs of the '90s Which is what I've been saying all offseason. So from a fantasy perspective: Johnson--will be fine Green--expect no better than what he has produced in the past in this offense, and probably a notch down Gonzalez--similar to last years numbers. I wouldn't expect anything more Receivers--you weren't drafting them anyway ('cept sky and me ), so why change now. loves LJ Edited July 29, 2006 by Chief Dick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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