Puddy Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 (edited) Not everyone agrees which order to Big 3 should be drafted but there is definitely a consensus that the first tier of RB's is Johsnon, Tomlinson and Alexander. I have two questions: 1) Of these three, which is most likely not to put up top 3 stats and why (assuming no injuries)? 2) Which RB outside the top tier is most likely to take their place in the top 3? My answers: 1) I think an argument can be made why each of the top 3 may fall short of their lofty expectations. In LJ's case - New coaching staff and Roaf's retirement. In Tomlison's case - Unproven quarterback that will have to force defenses not to put 8 in the box In Alexander's case - Losing Steve Hutchinson. My gut tells me that if any of the three fall out of the top tier by year-end it will be Alexander. No real solid reasoning other than just a guess. 2) There are a few that I believe may exceed their expectations enough to unseat one of the Big 3. Tiki Barber - another year of maturity at QB with Eli Manning settling into a superstar this year IMO. Clinton Portis - Run minded coaching staff but can Brunell keep the pressure off another year? Caddy Williams - Started off like gangbusters last year and should only be better in year 2. Ronnie Brown - No Ricky Williams to share carries with means unlimited upside this year. My guess is that Ronnie Brown will be the one to fill the shoes of whichever of the Big 3 falls slightly. Still wouldn't draft him 4th (that's for Portis), but I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown rise to the occasion. What do you think? Edited July 30, 2006 by Puddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 I have the same hunch as the Puddlemeister. Agree with his analysis about Brown, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 I think it'll be Alexander, just got paid. Also, I look for S. Jackson to be ridiculous this year, as his talent warrants this kind of projection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitansFan Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 I agree that Alexander is most likely to fall out of the top 3. He just got a nice deal so, unlike last year, he won't be playing for a better payday in the end. He lost Hutch, although I don't think that's as big as most people seem to think, and then there's the madden curse. I think Portis will be the one to replace him. With the addition of Saunders, I see his numbers only going up this year, especially touchdowns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 LJ. LT has already shown he can run without great play from a QB. SA has already ran successfully without Hutchinson. LJ has the shortest track record out of all these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 I agree that Alexander is most likely to fall out of the top 3. He just got a nice deal so, unlike last year, he won't be playing for a better payday in the end. He lost Hutch, although I don't think that's as big as most people seem to think, and then there's the madden curse. I agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 1) Of these three, which is most likely not to put up top 3 stats and why (assuming no injuries)? Alexander. But not because of Hutchinson. 2) Which RB outside the top tier is most likely to take their place in the top 3? Off the top of my head, I say Brown. Jackson is a possiblity. You all scoff at it, but I have a sneaking suspicion about Willie Parker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 Not very likely, IMO, but of the big 3, I think LJ most likely to fall out and Portis move in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 LJ. LT has already shown he can run without great play from a QB. SA has already ran successfully without Hutchinson. LJ has the shortest track record out of all these guys. Doesn't get much simpler than that. That's all that needs to be said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 I think the top 3 plus Portis and Tiki should all be fine. If what you are asking is which is the safest pick I would say LT, but all have possible issues. I think if you pick top 5 this year you will do fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firstandgoal Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 As for which one will fall out of the top 3, the answer whould lie in the question of which one is more likely to get injured. LT has not made it through a season yet without injury. He seemingly dissapoints every season. I think that Portis has the most potential to move into the top 3 if one slips out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted July 30, 2006 Share Posted July 30, 2006 I would say Larry Johnson. with Roaf retiring and Edwards taking over as coach. I am super scared to touch him. I have 1 league where I pick 3rd, if LJ falls to me I will be trading that pick (hopefully). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I'm thinking unless I have one of the top 3 picks this question has no relevance. I'd be more inclined to say LJ ... but in the 3rd spot I take the one of those 3 that is left on the board. Number 1 I probably take Alexander ... he's a TD machine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I'm thinking unless I have one of the top 3 picks this question has no relevance. I'd be more inclined to say LJ ... but in the 3rd spot I take the one of those 3 that is left on the board. Number 1 I probably take Alexander ... he's a TD machine. Yeah, it kind of suprises me so many are down on him. I mean I know he is getting there in age. but his schedule is paper thin and even with losing Hutchinson their O-line is pretty darn good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbaxx Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I disagree on the $$ thing....SA got a big deal so now he will prove he's worth it. These guys don't lay down after they get big dough. Out of the 3, I would go SA, LJ then LT.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbaxx Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I would say Larry Johnson. with Roaf retiring and Edwards taking over as coach. I am super scared to touch him. I have 1 league where I pick 3rd, if LJ falls to me I will be trading that pick (hopefully). What would you trade for? You are nuts IMO if this happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 LJ. LT has already shown he can run without great play from a QB. SA has already ran successfully without Hutchinson. LJ has the shortest track record out of all these guys. Exactly. And I know how "bandwagon" this sounds, but losing Roaf was huge. LJ may still tear it up, but I'm passing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puddy Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 I would say Larry Johnson. with Roaf retiring and Edwards taking over as coach. I am super scared to touch him. I have 1 league where I pick 3rd, if LJ falls to me I will be trading that pick (hopefully). Exactly. And I know how "bandwagon" this sounds, but losing Roaf was huge. LJ may still tear it up, but I'm passing. Okay just so I understand. Are both of you saying if you get the third pick and LJ is on the board, you don't want him there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbaxx Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Okay just so I understand. Are both of you saying if you get the third pick and LJ is on the board, you don't want him there My point exactly earlier in the thread....no way. If so, I want in your league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I think SA is the safest of the big 3- I mean, easy schedule, O is a well-oiled machine and he never misses a game. He is #1 IMO, and I really don't see his contract as a factor whatsoever, he just ain't that kind of guy. - LJ, the least proven, new coach in place---but I think LT has the biggest downside of the 3- and I could see him slip. Rookie/1st year QB's like Rivers?? uh no thanks- I think LT sees 8 in the box, and he has brokenn down some of late- he is #3. I think Tiki/Portis could slip in the top 3 stat-wise. I also like LJordan & R Brown to post big numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdj7k Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 As for which one will fall out of the top 3, the answer whould lie in the question of which one is more likely to get injured. LT has not made it through a season yet without injury. He seemingly dissapoints every season. I think that Portis has the most potential to move into the top 3 if one slips out. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
modus Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I think this is the year LT breaks down. He's averaged an obscene number of touches and he was showing signs of wear and tear last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Okay just so I understand. Are both of you saying if you get the third pick and LJ is on the board, you don't want him there I play in an auction league so this is N/A......but if applicable, I doubt I'd pass on LJ at 1.03. I think LT has the biggest downside of the 3- and I could see him slip. Rookie/1st year QB's like Rivers?? uh no thanks- I think LT sees 8 in the box, and he has brokenn down some of late-Funny, I see LT with the LEAST downside. No OL issues and he has played with questionable QBs before.....and done well. Now he has a stud TE drawing attention and an unproven but very promising new QB on hand. Meanwhile SA and LJ have bost lost VERY key OL players. As for "breaking down" - please. He has has a few nicks, nothing serious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I think this is the year LT breaks down. He's averaged an obscene number of touches and he was showing signs of wear and tear last year. One thing against this is the fact that LT reported to camp 10 pounds heavier and it's all muscle!!! He's a work-out machine. A friend of mine went to see camp today and said he was making insane cuts, was cat-quick, and looked more muscular than he'd ever seen him. LT's goal this year is to help Rivers get the Bolts to the playoffs. LT knows he has to stay healthy to accomplish that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
modus Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 One thing against this is the fact that LT reported to camp 10 pounds heavier and it's all muscle!!! He's a work-out machine. A friend of mine went to see camp today and said he was making insane cuts, was cat-quick, and looked more muscular than he'd ever seen him. LT's goal this year is to help Rivers get the Bolts to the playoffs. LT knows he has to stay healthy to accomplish that. There's no question he's awesome, but there's only so much pounding a body can take. His workload has been insane from college up to this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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