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RB Longevity


seabronc
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I've been crunching some numbers that are worth posting... Trying to see if you can predict when RBs will start to wear down.

I looked at the top 55 rushers of all time, and how their TDs and yardage declined as their career number of touches (carries+receptions) increased. Touches seemed like a better way to look at someone wearing out than age or number of seasons played. Here are the stats, based on the number of career touches the player had entering a season. Also ran them a separate list for only the players from the '90s and '00s since they had the medical help more similar to today's players.

 

Top 55 Rushers of all time

Career Touches to Start Season #of Players Average Yards Average TDs

0-100 55 1112 7.9

101-200 18 885 6.0

201-300 29 1272 8.4

301-400 19 1175 8.4

401-500 22 1376 9.8

501-600 23 1509 9.4

601-700 16 1451 9.6

701-800 19 1459 8.5

801-900 17 1407 9.0

901-1000 17 1632 10.8

1001-1100 24 1335 9.3

1101-1200 14 1413 8.4

1201-1300 20 1363 8.9

1301-1400 21 1323 9.0

1401-1500 14 1221 8.4

1501-1600 24 1158 6.8

1601-1700 19 1166 7.0

1701-1800 18 1009 5.9

1801-1900 21 913 6.7

1901-2000 17 833 4.6

2001-2100 15 1047 5.9

2101-2200 10 762 5.6

2201-2300 9 1326 12.7

2301-2400 10 1191 8.2

2401-2500 6 859 4.7

2501-2600 4 664 7.0

2601-2700 11 1410 7.2

2701-2800 3 1188 7.7

2801-2900 4 683 5.0

2901-3000 8 1117 6.8

3001-3100 5 1005 4.0

3101-3200 3 533 2.7

3201-3300 4 633 3.5

3301-3400 4 1175 10.3

3401-3500 3 1069 7.7

3501-3600 1 408 9.0

3601-3700 1 1282 9.0

3701-3800 2 1284 8.0

3901-4000 1 1137 3.0

4101-4200 1 750 5.0

4201-4300 1 1064 5.0

4501-4600 1 363 2.0

4601-4700 1 1042 9.0

 

Top Rushers in 1990s and 2000s

Career Touches to Start Season #of Players Average Yards Average TDs

0-100 30 1170 7.7

101-200 8 789 5.1

201-300 15 1267 7.7

301-400 12 1213 8.7

401-500 11 1513 10.3

501-600 11 1564 9.0

601-700 8 1410 8.8

701-800 10 1480 9.2

801-900 8 1460 8.8

901-1000 10 1830 12.1

1001-1100 10 1597 11.9

1101-1200 8 1568 9.0

1201-1300 10 1617 9.0

1301-1400 9 1391 9.1

1401-1500 7 1368 10.1

1501-1600 11 1386 8.0

1601-1700 9 1476 8.1

1701-1800 8 1043 6.6

1801-1900 9 994 7.3

1901-2000 9 1030 5.4

2001-2100 8 1270 8.3

2101-2200 3 1075 7.0

2201-2300 5 1327 10.4

2301-2400 7 1341 9.7

2401-2500 1 171 2.0

2501-2600 1 441 0.0

2601-2700 7 1511 7.3

2701-2800 1 1490 10.0

2801-2900 1 723 9.0

2901-3000 5 1110 6.6

3001-3100 3 1034 4.0

3101-3200 1 601 3.0

3201-3300 2 637 2.5

3301-3400 4 1175 10.3

3401-3500 1 583 1.0

3501-3600 1 408 1.0

3601-3700 1 1282 9.0

3701-3800 1 853 5.0

3901-4000 1 1137 3.0

4201-4300 1 1064 5.0

4501-4600 1 363 2.0

4601-4700 1 1042 9.0

 

 

The historical numbers show the biggest dropoff around 1500 touches... while during the last twenty years it seems to be closer to 1700 touches. There are still great seasons had after that number of touches, but the statistics become quite sporadic and the number of players remaining begins to drop off. Interesting to note: Tomlinson is at around 2000-2100 to start the season, and Alexander 1900-2000..... So these statistics would seem to back up the opinion that they are near the end of their star seasons. This in part made me decide on LJ number 1 overall in a new dynasty league I'm in.

 

Other thoughts about these stats?

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This might not mean much, but I don't think you can always use the averages most of the time because one guy can easily vary from another mostly due to if they were the workhouse in college. Some guys can take a lot more beating in college than others (Ex. Frank Gore and Lee Suggs). If you do the carry things, when players are a little older about 26-30 I think you have to look at college career carries.

 

I don't really think it matters though with the really young guys. Unless like I said Frank Gore, Lee Suggs both got hurt pretty badly.

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The historical numbers show the biggest dropoff around 1500 touches... while during the last twenty years it seems to be closer to 1700 touches. There are still great seasons had after that number of touches, but the statistics become quite sporadic and the number of players remaining begins to drop off. Interesting to note: Tomlinson is at around 2000-2100 to start the season, and Alexander 1900-2000..... So these statistics would seem to back up the opinion that they are near the end of their star seasons. This in part made me decide on LJ number 1 overall in a new dynasty league I'm in.

 

Other thoughts about these stats?

 

I think another interesting number is the age 30 - that appears to be almost as important a benchmark as the 1700 touch barrier; even guys without the heavy use break down at or soon after 30 in most cases - a la Priest Holmes, who made it through 2 1/2 seasons of heavy use before falling apart.

 

Obviously rare backs like Payton and Sanders remain productive past that point, and LT and SA certainly could be in that category, but in dynasty/keeper leagues, those trends make LJ a no-brainer - SA has 1900 touches and is 30; LT is younger but has even more carries (I think he's been under 400 touches once in 5 years - and 80 games of 25 carries per will break darn near anyone down) and is starting to get those nagging injuries that worry you.

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This might not mean much, but I don't think you can always use the averages most of the time because one guy can easily vary from another mostly due to if they were the workhouse in college. Some guys can take a lot more beating in college than others (Ex. Frank Gore and Lee Suggs). If you do the carry things, when players are a little older about 26-30 I think you have to look at college career carries.

 

I think that's a great point - Ricky Williams seemed to be an example of that - by the time he got to the NFL he already had plenty of miles. And I think it showed, to some extent.

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RB Longevity, At how many touches do they begin to wear down?

 

3! Thou shalt count the number two and continue on to 3. Do not count the nuimber 4, for 4 is one to many. 3 shall be the number and the number shall be 3...

 

Does that help? :D

Edited by McBoog
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RB Longevity, At how many touches do they begin to wear down?

 

3! Thou shalt count the number two and continue on to 3. Do not count the nuimber 4, for 4 is one to many. 3 shall be the number and the number shall be 3...

 

Does that help? :D

 

 

So, is Rhino's spreadsheet the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch?

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