Running Backs

[rovdog]

After the third or fourth pick in the draft this year, I have no idea what to do. I really don't want to take a reciever, but do I have a choice? Is Ronnie Brown that good? I've been hearing terrible things about Lamont's prospects behind Oakland's line, St. Louis line not good, Portis is hurt, the list goes on... the only number 1 Rb that is not a superstar is rudi Johnson. So am I stuck taking Steve Smith or Larry Fitzgerald (both if whom were on my team last year, drafted 5th and 7th rounds respectively) in the first?

 

I don't think there is a reciever worth a first and yet, I run out dependable running backs. I'm thinking screw it and gamble with the Willie Parker in the third hopefully, and maybe in the later rounds Joe Addai/Dom Rhodes and Mike Bell kind of thing... What is everyone else doing?

[Last Plane Out]

After the third or fourth pick in the draft this year, I have no idea what to do. I really don't want to take a reciever, but do I have a choice? Is Ronnie Brown that good? I've been hearing terrible things about Lamont's prospects behind Oakland's line, St. Louis line not good, Portis is hurt, the list goes on... the only number 1 Rb that is not a superstar is rudi Johnson. So am I stuck taking Steve Smith or Larry Fitzgerald (both if whom were on my team last year, drafted 5th and 7th rounds respectively) in the first?

 

I don't think there is a reciever worth a first and yet, I run out dependable running backs. I'm thinking screw it and gamble with the Willie Parker in the third hopefully, and maybe in the later rounds Joe Addai/Dom Rhodes and Mike Bell kind of thing... What is everyone else doing?

 

 

 

I just checked it out I think you're on to something

Edited August 28, 2006 by Last Plane Out

[Big Country]

Parker is long gone by the third in most leagues I have seen.

 

Just about every players has question marks. Point is, early on, there are a lot fewer RBs and you can take those with much less in terms of question marks like SJax, Rudi, ROnnie, Cadillac, etc., or take HUGH gambles on guys with bigger question marks like Julius Jones, Taylor or any of the rooks that aren't starting yet.

 

One thing for sure, WRs are lasting as are QBs, so you can either take a UUGH gamble on the hardest positoon to fill while getting solid WRs and QBS or take a calculated risk on that position while still getting solid players at WR and QB.

[rovdog]

I guess if that's the case Big Country, Parker might be worth a second to me. But only this year, where I see so many RBs with questions. Westbrook might be worth a second to me this year, too.

I like Rudi, he's solid to me and worth a first. Other guys you mentioned haven't proved much to me. Like Caddy, but Gruden hasn't shown he won't overwork him. Had him last year as a third RB and he he hurt me once he started sitting out.

 

here's my top running back thoughts, in no particular order, okay in a little bit of an order

 

l.j.- of course, but wait that offensive line hasn't looked so good but he's still elite so of course

 

tiki- older, maybe doesn't matter, but brandon jacobs will steal more goal line carries

 

edge- how will he do in arizona? I have no idea. And I have no idea how good their offensive line is? Somebody fill me in on this?

 

stephen jackson- behind a suspect rams line, but shows flashes of a lot of talent. also, offense likes to throw the ball

 

lamont jordan- behind a suspect oakland line

 

r. johnson- solid producer, not going to be spectacular but worth it

 

okay that's seven, not rookies, shown production, not in split backfields, i just seem to have more questions about Rbs than ever before. who else deserves first round consideration?

 

please any points, criticism of logic or comments would be helpful

[rovdog]

sorry top 2 backs

 

Alexander and L.t. got erased. But we don't need to talk about them, of course.

[LooGie]

I guess if that's the case Big Country, Parker might be worth a second to me. But only this year, where I see so many RBs with questions. Westbrook might be worth a second to me this year, too.

I like Rudi, he's solid to me and worth a first. Other guys you mentioned haven't proved much to me. Like Caddy, but Gruden hasn't shown he won't overwork him. Had him last year as a third RB and he he hurt me once he started sitting out.

 

here's my top running back thoughts, in no particular order, okay in a little bit of an order

 

l.j.- of course, but wait that offensive line hasn't looked so good but he's still elite so of course

 

tiki- older, maybe doesn't matter, but brandon jacobs will steal more goal line carries

 

edge- how will he do in arizona? I have no idea. And I have no idea how good their offensive line is? Somebody fill me in on this?

 

stephen jackson- behind a suspect rams line, but shows flashes of a lot of talent. also, offense likes to throw the ball

 

lamont jordan- behind a suspect oakland line

 

r. johnson- solid producer, not going to be spectacular but worth it

 

okay that's seven, not rookies, shown production, not in split backfields, i just seem to have more questions about Rbs than ever before. who else deserves first round consideration?

 

please any points, criticism of logic or comments would be helpful

 

i think there's too much stock being put in the O-line this year. This is just people over analyzing things. DD did just fine behind HOU line, which I think we'd all agree, was the worst in the entire universe...

With LJ2, he'll be a HUGH part of the passing game, so when that Oline does break down, look for Brooks and the quick dump off pass.

[Whiskey Pimp]

Well, I didn't see LT or SA in your list but I see the point you're trying to make.

[Balzac]

I think the #1 priority in the first round outside of the big 3 RBs is to get a "safe" player who you know will produce no matter what happens. Question is, of course, who are the safest players after the big 3 are gone? My thoughts:

 

Tiki Barber - year in and year out he amasses tons of combo yards. I don't think there's a safer bet for production than Tiki - and he'll get his TDs. He's not going to score 20, but he should hit double digits, which is good enough for me.

 

Ronnie Brown - he was very solid in his rookie year, but he had to share carries. Now that he's the man in Miami, he should get tons of touches - tons of touches + talented RB = fantasy gold. While he may not be LJ, SA or LT, we know that he'll get his numbers b/c there's nobody breathing down his neck and MIA (based on history) won't abandon the run.

 

Manning - not sure what kind of league you're in, but if it's one where QBs get 5 or 6 points for thrown TDs, Manning is an extremely safe bet this year. Without Edge to rely on (Rhodes and Addai are a terrible collective replacement), Manning will have to throw a lot more - and we all know what happens when he throws.

 

Steven Jackson - much like Ronnie Brown, here's a guy who has played well with limited touches in the past. Now that he's got the backfield to himself, he should get tons of touches in an offense that should still be able to put up points. Will they still be pass heavy? Maybe, but I'd say the departure of Martz makes Jackson a lot safer. If there's any concern here, it's his health - he's got the achilles right now and always seems to be getting banged up.

 

Lamont Jordan - same theme in that we know he'll get his touches and receptions. I don't have tons of confidence in the OAK offense as a whole coming off the blocks, so I'm not considering him as safe as some of the others.

 

WRs - I just don't consider WRs all that safe as a set, so I'd probably hold off on them until the above guys are gone. I'm probably in the minority, but the safest WR in my opinion is Larry Fitzgerald.

 

I've run out of gas.

[rovdog]

Great post Balzac. You kind of convinced me on Ronnie Brown. But he's still not proven. But I do think that the Miami offense takes a big step forward. They have some players.

 

I agree with you about Larry Fitzgerald. I really like him as a number one. As far as recievers go, I have this thought that Randy Moss might be a value pick in the second round if you can get him there. Of course, that is a gamble with a second rounder. But he is the only receiver that I've ever seen taken in the first that really paid off.

 

As far as Manning goes, he's a safe pick, but I expect similar numbers out of Palmer some rounds later and I just feel like you can get solid Qbs later. You make a good point about the colts passing more but they are still a good running team and I actually see Addai and Rhodes stepping in nicely. Rhodes put up decent numbers in previous years when Edge was out. Edge was no Barry Sanders, doing it all himself. The colts in their recent incarnation have been able to run the football.

 

Now, I just looked up at your team and see you got Larry Johnson, which means you're in good shape.

[Mark5]

Tiki is a solid 4th, other than that they all have question marks.. Our league scores for longer TDs so this opinion is a little skewed but he can break it from anywhere and Jacobs was fumbling alot when they got close and for 3-4 games he wasn't an option down there.. Funny thing on draft night is you have the 4-6 pick and have to ponder and look at your cheatsheets to select a player.LOL.. Sad but TRUE. Edge in Arizona I want no part of, their O-LINE stinks and will always stink..

[TheGrunt]

Tiki is a solid 4th, other than that they all have question marks.. Our league scores for longer TDs so this opinion is a little skewed but he can break it from anywhere and Jacobs was fumbling alot when they got close and for 3-4 games he wasn't an option down there.. Funny thing on draft night is you have the 4-6 pick and have to ponder and look at your cheatsheets to select a player.LOL.. Sad but TRUE. Edge in Arizona I want no part of, their O-LINE stinks and will always stink..

 

True, Tiki makes for a solid #4, but looking at the other RB's I can pick a good number of them without the so-called question marks. I'd almost consider any RB that is a for sure starter, and not in a RBBC is a solid pickup after the first four RB's are taken. Once you get into the RBBC group, the question marks become more bold, so it might be better to pick up that solid WR at this point.

[Seahawk37]

Whats the story on Kevin Jones this year. I dont see him etting drafted in some mocks till maybe the 8th round. Anyone know?

[Judge Smales]

Just into round 9 on my first draft. First 8 rounds and RB's per round were:

1: 12

2: 2

3: 7

4: 5

5: 1

6: 3

7: 5

8: 6

This is a 12 teamer with 1RB - 2WR and 1 Flex (RB/WR) starting spots

Still lots of WR's (only 34 taken thru 8 rounds) and only 10 QB's taken so far (2nd one was taken in the 5th)

 

Have not seen so many teams scrambling for RB's this year. Agreed once you get one in the first it's a crapshoot after then. I think for my other two drafts it's do your homework on RB's 14-25 and pick one or two "safe" ones and target them earlier than normal and then load up on WR's while everyone else is scrambling for their #2 and 3 RB.