weirhead Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I have the number 4 pick, and am reasonably certain the first three are going to snap up the obvious RBs. Am I crazy to be thinking of grabbing Peyton this early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefjay Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Depending on your scoring system of course but he went with the 6th pick in my local. As I look at my draft board on the wall of my office (Thanks Puddy) this particular guy could hae gotten Tiki, Ronnie, Lamont, etc... but instead chose PM. I think this is the first year he has taking Manning too so it's not like he's a slappy. Personally in his spot I probably go Tiki. I ended up with Ronnie at 8 which I was happy with although wouldn't have mind Tiki slipping one more spot to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I have the number 4 pick, and am reasonably certain the first three are going to snap up the obvious RBs. Am I crazy to be thinking of grabbing Peyton this early? Nah, as long as you're still in the thinking stage. But if you're really enamored with him you might want to trade down and get your RB in the first and him in the 2nd. He's been going in early to mid 2nd round in most drafts I've seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyMantana Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 He has gone #4 and #8 in my two drafts so far Both are 10team, PPR, 1/10rr, 1/20pass, 6allTD, 5 bonus for 100+rr 300+pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCHan Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I have the number 4 pick, and am reasonably certain the first three are going to snap up the obvious RBs. Am I crazy to be thinking of grabbing Peyton this early? I definitely go with Tiki at 4. After Tiki I think there is a drop off so maybe I would pick Manning at 5 but it depends on your league. In my league RBs are key so I wouldn't touch Manning with my 8th pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budlitebrad Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 (edited) Well with smaller leagues, the key is to grab as many studs as you can since everyone will have at least a decent team. If it's 6/passing TD, I would consider it. Edited August 29, 2006 by budlitebrad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 He generally goes in the mid to late second, I wouldn't touch him until the early third. If someone wants to take him earlier, more power to them, but they are just taking from the deepest position this year and leaving more RBS (the shallowest this year) for the other teams to gain a HUGH advantage (at least on paper). Even with 6 point TDs, Manning just does not outscore the other top QBs that go 2 or more rounds later by enough to warrant taking him so early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViciousMachine Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 He generally goes in the mid to late second, I wouldn't touch him until the early third. If someone wants to take him earlier, more power to them, but they are just taking from the deepest position this year and leaving more RBS (the shallowest this year) for the other teams to gain a HUGH advantage (at least on paper). Even with 6 point TDs, Manning just does not outscore the other top QBs that go 2 or more rounds later by enough to warrant taking him so early. well said. Unless its an 8 team league and i am sure i can grab two stud rbs, i would never even consider taking Manning. He just not outscore the other QBs that badly on a week to week basis to justify it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 (edited) If you are getting 6 for passing TDs, you have to think about it. I just drafted him in the six spot of my 10 team performance league. We get 6 points per TD and bonuses for the length of the TD. I ended up taking Manning and Chad Johnson in round 2. I waited until round three to take a running back and then got Chester, Julius and Frank Gore in rounds 3, 4 and 5. Plus, later I got Chris Brown and Landelle White to round out my backfield. I ended up getting Crumpler as my TE and Horn, Matt Jones and Braylon Edwards as my 2, 3 and 4 recievers. I love my squad and I am happy about how the strategy worked out for me. The bottom line, if you are getting 4 points per TD.. No, if you are getting 6 with bonuses, definately think about it. I would still go with Tiki at 4 though. Edited August 29, 2006 by Scourge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I had the last pick in a league that rewards 6pts for all TD's. So I grabbed Jackson and PM. First time I've ever drafted a QB before the 5th round, but with that scoring system, and no Edge, I just felt like PM is going to be closer to his 2004 numbers this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Hashed to death, but 4 and 6 point TDs mak an extremely minimal impact on Manning's value UNLESS he is the only QB to get 6 points while all others still only get 4. His value is determined by how much he outscores the other QBs, not by how many points he puts up. You can get a comparable QB in later rounds, the same can not be said of RBs and to a lesser extent WRs. The fact that Chester, Julius and Gore lasted to where you got them makes me believe that you are not playing in a league full of fantasy football enthusiasts, as in most leagues all ofthem are gone by the late third round, possibly early 4th with only 10 teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I had the last pick in a league that rewards 6pts for all TD's. So I grabbed Jackson and PM. First time I've ever drafted a QB before the 5th round, but with that scoring system, and no Edge, I just felt like PM is going to be closer to his 2004 numbers this year. Even in 2004 PM was not the highest scoring QB in most standard scoring systems, Culpepper was. Manning has consistency on his side, in that he regularly puts up top 5 QB numbers, the problem is he simply does not outscore QBs by enough, QBs that can be had 3-5 rounds later, to justify taking him that high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Hashed to death, but 4 and 6 point TDs mak an extremely minimal impact on Manning's value UNLESS he is the only QB to get 6 points while all others still only get 4. His value is determined by how much he outscores the other QBs, not by how many points he puts up. You can get a comparable QB in later rounds, the same can not be said of RBs and to a lesser extent WRs. The fact that Chester, Julius and Gore lasted to where you got them makes me believe that you are not playing in a league full of fantasy football enthusiasts, as in most leagues all ofthem are gone by the late third round, possibly early 4th with only 10 teams. Not hashed enough, apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chonchito Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Hashed to death, but 4 and 6 point TDs mak an extremely minimal impact on Manning's value UNLESS he is the only QB to get 6 points while all others still only get 4. His value is determined by how much he outscores the other QBs, not by how many points he puts up. You can get a comparable QB in later rounds, the same can not be said of RBs and to a lesser extent WRs. The fact that Chester, Julius and Gore lasted to where you got them makes me believe that you are not playing in a league full of fantasy football enthusiasts, as in most leagues all ofthem are gone by the late third round, possibly early 4th with only 10 teams. The comment about the 10 team leagues is just flat out wrong. Drafting trends will vary depending on scoring and number of players starting at each position. In a league where you start 2 rbs and 3 wrs, teams tend to pick up all the tier one wrs by the end of round 2/early round 3. Especially if there are not ppr. the only wr that i've seen last is TO and that's not based on his play. I don't see why you would take a mediocre rb over a top wr in a league that size. to win you need difference makers and chester taylor is not the difference maker that peyton manning is. will there be a no name wr who has stats similar to torry holt, cj this season? possibly, yeah. but there will also most likely be rbs that play better than the tier 3 rbs even if it takes them a few weeks to get off the bench. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Hashed to death, but 4 and 6 point TDs mak an extremely minimal impact on Manning's value UNLESS he is the only QB to get 6 points while all others still only get 4. His value is determined by how much he outscores the other QBs, not by how many points he puts up. You can get a comparable QB in later rounds, the same can not be said of RBs and to a lesser extent WRs. The fact that Chester, Julius and Gore lasted to where you got them makes me believe that you are not playing in a league full of fantasy football enthusiasts, as in most leagues all ofthem are gone by the late third round, possibly early 4th with only 10 teams. Not completely true. Although it is true that Cpep scored more than PM in 2004, do you see that happening again this year in Miami. I don't even see Brady or Palmer putting up those numbers from 2004 this year. Could be wrong about Palmer, but I think PM is in for a big year. In 2004, PM was approx. 20 pts behind Cpep, but 83 pts above the next closest QB and 170 above the 4th place QB. Amongst all players, he also ranked 2nd and was 110 pts above the nearest RB. I think he's worth a high pick if he's #2 overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roustabout Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I picked at #6 in a 10-team league. I planned on taking Jackson or Manning. The guy ahead of me took Jackson so then I was deciding between Manning and Brown. I took Manning because he's money in the bank and all the other 1st round RBs have too many question marks. I think half are going to be worthless. Obviously, I see Manning having a big year. Funny thing is, Brown fell to me in the second round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 TOTAL POINTS SCORED DON'T MATTER What matters is the difference in points scored from the player in question and the last starter at that position, that way you have a level baseline with which to compare players from different positions. I personally like to look at 3 years worth of stats. So, here is what could be done: Step 1: Pull fantasy points scored for the last 3 years, separated by position and year. Sort each year/position by points scored, highest to lowest. Step 2. Delete all names associated with those points. Step 3: Name the top scoring QB QB1, second scoring QB QB2 and so on. Do same for RB and WR and all other positions. Step 4: Generate the average score for each of these "players". (Sum up the scores for the top QB in each of the years, then divide by 3, repeat procees for second highest scoring QB and across all positions) Step 5: Determine the last starter for each position. Easy to do with fixed lineups, make a guesstimate for flex spots. Step 6: Subtract the points scored by this last starter from every player in that position. So, for a twelve team league that starts 1 QB, subtract the score of the QB12 from every QB, so that you end up with 11 QBs with positive values, one QB with a 0, and all other QBs are negative numbers. Repeat for all of the other process. This new number is your "Value". Step 7: Take your current year's rankings, and assign those names to your list above. So, if Peyton is your #1 QB, assign his name to your QB1 player. Carson is your #2, assign him to QB2. Do the same for each position. Step 8: Put all of the players into one list and sort by the "Value" number. This list will show you how the players value out, using the last 3 years as a statistical base, without the bias associated with actually applying names to the rankings before determining our overall rankings. Yes, these can be tweaked if you have feeling certain players will play above the statistical average of their ranking for some reason. Yes, you can do this without the 3 year statistical average if you generate your own projections for every player, then just use those projections to calculate value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 (edited) BC.. I don't disagree with you. Your case has been proven to be true. Was I lucky to get Taylor, Jones and Gore in 3, 4, and 5? Yes.. But that was just a bonus. The first 5 picks were LT, LJ, and SA.. Then Tiki and S. Jax went. The next pick was obviously Ronnie Brown. I like Brown's upside but he has not proven a thing yet. He has proven about as much as Taylor, Juilius Jones and Gore. I knew I was getting at least 2 of them because not all publications and rankings are as high on those guys and they would slip into the 3rd and 4th round. You have to know your league and draft accordingly. The guy who had Manning the last 2 years won. He can single handedly win you weeks in my scoring system. Who at the QB position do you know you can count on week after week? Brady is consistant but not explosive. The book is still out on Eli. Palmer's knee looked great last night, but how long will it hold up? A championship is not won on your draft, it is won making the right pickups and trades during the season with a solid foundation. Aside from LT, SA, and LJ.. Manning is as solid a foundation as you can get. Edited August 29, 2006 by Scourge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Yes, knowlwdge of your leaguemates is big, and if you know they may let some RBs slip, then I too would certainly take that gamble and grab a guy like Manning earlier than I would in a BOTH or random league, where either my opponents are, shall we say more versed in the latest information, or unknown to me, I would not be willing to make that gamble that I find multiple diamond in the roughs at RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deacon Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I like Brown's upside but he has not proven a thing yet. He has proven about as much as Taylor, Juilius Jones and Gore. I knew I was getting at least 2 of them because not all publications and rankings are as high on those guys and they would slip into the 3rd and 4th round. and I think the same can be said for S. Jackson, Edge in the desert, Portis with the injury, etc. After the top 3 and Tiki, I am beginning to think you can do just as well down the list. And it gets easier to get those guys while others are starting to go for the qb's. BUT it's still a very valid point that your qb is only as valuable as the number of points he outscores the other qb's -- if you really think Manning will be close to '04 numbers then I think he's a legitimate 5th pick. I looked back at our '04 scoring and Manning was 120 points better than the #10 qb (Vick). The best rb that year (Alexander) was 92 points better than the #10 rb. But '04 was a record year for qb's -- Culpepper & Manning from that year have the two best in all 8 years of our league. Bottom line -- I wouldn't go for Manning until the second round, but only because I don't think he will repeat '04 although he will probably do better than '05. But then again, you'll be getting a top qb when you don't have a chance at a top RB. But then again, you might be better off with a receiver. But then again, receivers are so unpredictable. But then again still reading???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 I looked back at our '04 scoring and Manning was 120 points better than the #10 qb (Vick). The best rb that year (Alexander) was 92 points better than the #10 rb. But, assuming you start 2 RBs, you would have to see how he did compared to the #20 RB, not the #10 RB.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorp25 Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 I'd pass on manning in the first grab a RB and hope that manning falls to you in the second round. Since your league favors QB's taking manning that early isn't that much of gamble as long as you come away with a RB in the second and WR in the 3rd you should be okay. Just makes your 4th and 5th round picks alittle tougher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nhoops Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 I had the 3rd pick in a 10 team redraft with QB's getting 4pnts/passing TD. I drafted Manning in the 1st last year and swore I wouldn't take him any earlier than the 3rd. So when I picked again in the 2nd who did I take.....Manning (over Holt). Suprisingly (had been banged up in pre-season game) was able to grab Holt in the 3rd so it worked out. I do know for a fact that Manning wouldn't have made it back to me in the 3rd so I'm glad I took him. (FWIW Brady was taken 5 picks ahead in the second - yes it was a homer pick) As said by others I think you have to grab a RB with your 1st pick especially in the top 5 and hope Manning falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 last night, 10 team redraft, Peyton went 1.6 to the Owner that took him last year at 1.2. He won the Title last year so I didn't expect him to last till 1.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 I'm not touching him. Too many question marks at the RB position this year to chase positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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