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Do you ever find yourself thinking like this?


Shakenbake
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In a few recent drafts I seem to be reaching a little more for players on "good" teams vs. those on bad teams even though the player on a bad team is usually rated higher.

 

For example the other night I reached a little and grabbed Parker at the begining of the 2nd round when Lamont Jordan was still on the board.

 

My thinking was simply that the Steelers are a better team with a good D and that FWP would see more carries per game assuming they have a lead in many games this year, as well as their offense revolving around the run.

 

Lamont being on a bad Raider team maybe behind a lot and therefore abandoning the run.

 

This is only one such case, I found myself doing this on various picks throughout my recent draft. Do you think this thinking is off base and that I should really look at their value versus the team they play on.

 

I could use various other players as examples, just wondering how often you let this thinking influence your picks, or if you generally stick to the cheatsheets you made.

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In a few recent drafts I seem to be reaching a little more for players on "good" teams vs. those on bad teams even though the player on a bad team is usually rated higher.

 

For example the other night I reached a little and grabbed Parker at the begining of the 2nd round when Lamont Jordan was still on the board.

 

My thinking was simply that the Steelers are a better team with a good D and that FWP would see more carries per game assuming they have a lead in many games this year, as well as their offense revolving around the run.

 

Lamont being on a bad Raider team maybe behind a lot and therefore abandoning the run.

 

This is only one such case, I found myself doing this on various picks throughout my recent draft. Do you think this thinking is off base and that I should really look at their value versus the team they play on.

 

I could use various other players as examples, just wondering how often you let this thinking influence your picks, or if you generally stick to the cheatsheets you made.

 

 

 

you reached for parker over Jordan? :D

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I didn't have to do it, but if I had gotten a top 3 pick that is the logic I was going to use in taking Alexander 1st.

 

Though my wife warned me once a day about the Madden curse.

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I think you are overthinking things as that is all factored in when you create your draft board.

So in other words if I am looking at Player A and Player B and I have A ranked higher I won't then

take B because he's on a better team because that was part of the equation when I made the ranking.

Someone like Jordan was on an awful team last year but was still productive.

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I think you are overthinking things as that is all factored in when you create your draft board.

So in other words if I am looking at Player A and Player B and I have A ranked higher I won't then

take B because he's on a better team because that was part of the equation when I made the ranking.

Someone like Jordan was on an awful team last year but was still productive.

 

 

As stated above, your draft board, if done properly, should account for this.

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I certainly think that 2nd or 3rd tier players on good offenses get a bump. I like Dominic Rhodes this year, mainly because he's the Colt's RB. The 3rd WR on Cincinatti is probably worth more than the #1 WR for the Jets or the 49ers.

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I don't think it's that far afield with the recent developments in Pittsburgh of Parker supposedly getting the goalline carries, and considering the preseason woes in Oakland.

 

 

 

I just want to expand on this a little...

 

Lamont Jordan is going maybe as high as 6 and as low as 14ish. Call it and of the first, beginning of the second. Willie Parker is going at the end of the second, early third round. The two players will virtually never be on the same team, unless someone goes 12 Lamont Jordan, 13 Willie Parker at the turn. Or in an 11/14, 10/15, 9/16/ 8/17 combo, etc..

 

The fact is that if someone is drafting in this range and they really like Willie Parker for this season, they probably won't get a shot at him in a later round. This is their chance to get him. What's wrong with someone drafing their player, if they think they are worth the draft slot and will not get another shot?

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I just want to expand on this a little...

 

Lamont Jordan is going maybe as high as 6 and as low as 14ish. Call it and of the first, beginning of the second. Willie Parker is going at the end of the second, early third round. The two players will virtually never be on the same team, unless someone goes 12 Lamont Jordan, 13 Willie Parker at the turn. Or in an 11/14, 10/15, 9/16/ 8/17 combo, etc..

 

The fact is that if someone is drafting in this range and they really like Willie Parker for this season, they probably won't get a shot at him in a later round. This is their chance to get him. What's wrong with someone drafing their player, if they think they are worth the draft slot and will not get another shot?

 

 

There is nothin at all wrong with that. I am a big fan of making an effort to get the guys you feel strongly about despite the concensus.

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I just want to expand on this a little...

 

Lamont Jordan is going maybe as high as 6 and as low as 14ish. Call it and of the first, beginning of the second. Willie Parker is going at the end of the second, early third round. The two players will virtually never be on the same team, unless someone goes 12 Lamont Jordan, 13 Willie Parker at the turn. Or in an 11/14, 10/15, 9/16/ 8/17 combo, etc..

 

The fact is that if someone is drafting in this range and they really like Willie Parker for this season, they probably won't get a shot at him in a later round. This is their chance to get him. What's wrong with someone drafing their player, if they think they are worth the draft slot and will not get another shot?

 

 

I agree completely - take who you like the best, even if the "value" isn't what the consensus says.

 

The poster's question was somewhat different, though - valuing players on good teams vs. bad teams.

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I agree completely - take who you like the best, even if the "value" isn't what the consensus says.

 

The poster's question was somewhat different, though - valuing players on good teams vs. bad teams.

 

 

 

Uh...but it isn't different. My answer is that if you value the player higher than the others on the boards, and know you won't get him at your next pick, then don't second guess picking him where you are :D

 

EDIT TO ADD: What the original poster is getting at is that he finds himself being more comfortable with the situations of certain players based on their team situation. There's nothing wrong with that and flipping the bird to 'conventional wisdom'. I am merely encouraging people to draft the players they think have the best chance to succeed and help their fantasy team.

 

There is no magic formula for predicting success. All the statistical analysis done on players beforehand doesn't mean squat once the players get on the field. Use any means necessary to evaluate players.

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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Uh...but it isn't different. My answer is that if you value the player higher than the others on the boards, and know you won't get him at your next pick, then don't second guess picking him where you are :D

 

EDIT TO ADD: What the original poster is getting at is that he finds himself being more comfortable with the situations of certain players based on their team situation. There's nothing wrong with that and flipping the bird to 'conventional wisdom'. I am merely encouraging people to draft the players they think have the best chance to succeed and help their fantasy team.

 

There is no magic formula for predicting success. All the statistical analysis done on players beforehand doesn't mean squat once the players get on the field. Use any means necessary to evaluate players.

 

And the people that don't follow this advice are the ones posting 'I don't like my team" rants. I hardly ever draft a team I don't like, because I get the players I want.

 

As far as the good team/bad team, that is only used as a final determination for me, not the driving force behind my pick. I like to get all guys from good teams if I can but sometimes it just isn't practical.

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Uh...but it isn't different. My answer is that if you value the player higher than the others on the boards, and know you won't get him at your next pick, then don't second guess picking him where you are :D

 

EDIT TO ADD: What the original poster is getting at is that he finds himself being more comfortable with the situations of certain players based on their team situation. There's nothing wrong with that and flipping the bird to 'conventional wisdom'. I am merely encouraging people to draft the players they think have the best chance to succeed and help their fantasy team.

 

There is no magic formula for predicting success. All the statistical analysis done on players beforehand doesn't mean squat once the players get on the field. Use any means necessary to evaluate players.

 

As I said, I agree completely here - pick the people you like best, based on your rankings. The way that I interpreted the original post was that he was making decisions during the draft that divereged from his cheat sheet because of being on a good team or bad team. My only point was that your cheatsheet should be set to account for this in the first place.

 

I think we're splitting hairs... :D

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Thanks for all of the feedback, I appreciate it.

 

As many of you have written, I am very happy with the team I drafted, I was just curious to see if others bring this type of thinking into their drafting strategies or if they really stick to the consensus rankings of various websites etc.

 

I will post my team in a minute for you all to rate. :D

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