Big Country Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 It has bee nbeat to death. But, still many people do not seem to get it. 4 pt TDs, 6 pt TDs, etc. do not affect QB values, and QBs are less valuable becasue you only start one and there are many of them that will do well. In several posts, I have shown basic method of determining value, simply put, you subtract how many FF pts you think the last starter at each position will score from the other players in the position, so that each starter has a positive value, with the last starter at each position having an equal value of 0. So, taking the projections provides here at thehuddle.com, I have done the work for you to illustrate how this principle works, and why taking Manning in the first is generally a poor decision. The method is simple. This is based on a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (K and D ignored for this purpose). So, I took the numbers projected by thehuddle for the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs and top 12 TEs, and I generated the value numbers. I then grouped all of the players into one list and sorted by value. The main thing that jumps out is that because of the third required WR, they are very close in value to the RBs (another topic that has been discussed greatly about how the NUMBER of starters is the largest factor in value, not scoring system), if not a better value in the 2nd round. However, this has to be tempered by the fact that many owners will take third RBs within the first 5 rounds (many articles on draft strategy do reccomend adding those in to your valuation formula, thus increasing RB values even more). Low and behold Manning shows up at #28, which is early third round value, just has been espoused by so many posters on the boards. By taking Manning so early, you are giving up better value, or, put better, you are giving better value to your opponents, making it all the more difficult for you to catch up when you are scrambling later on to fill in your starting lineup. Without further ado, here is the list: Rank Player POS FF Pts* Value 1 Johnson, Larry RB 375 207 2 Tomlinson, Ladainian RB 325 157 3 Alexander, Shaun RB 311 143 4 Barber, Tiki RB 269 101 5 Holt, Torry WR 208 93 6 Johnson, Chad WR 207 92 7 Gates, Antonio TE 168 89 8 Smith, Steve WR 203 88 9 Boldin, Anquan WR 196 81 10 Fitzgerald, Larry WR 195 80 11 Brown, Ronnie RB 246 78 12 Moss, Randy WR 191 76 13 Owens, Terrell WR 189 74 14 Jackson, Steven RB 239 71 15 Portis, Clinton RB 238 70 16 James, Edgerrin RB 236 68 17 Harrison, Marvin WR 180 65 18 Shockey, Jeremy TE 142 63 19 Williams, Carnell RB 230 62 20 Heap, Todd TE 138 59 21 Wayne, Reggie WR 171 56 22 Driver, Donald WR 170 55 23 Johnson, Rudi RB 222 54 24 Williams, Roy WR 169 54 25 McGahee, Willis RB 220 52 26 Jordan, Lamont RB 218 50 27 Chambers, Chris WR 165 50 28 Manning, Peyton QB 333 49 29 Mason, Derrick WR 164 49 30 Crumpler, Alge TE 128 49 31 Westbrook, Brian RB 216 48 32 Jackson, Darrell WR 163 48 33 Johnson, Andre WR 160 45 34 Burress, Plaxico WR 158 43 35 Moss, Santana WR 157 42 36 Ward, Hines WR 156 41 37 Gonzalez, Tony TE 116 37 38 Brady, Tom QB 318 34 39 Horn, Joe WR 149 34 40 Smith, L.J. TE 112 33 41 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR 146 31 42 Smith, Rod WR 142 27 43 Palmer, Carson QB 310 26 44 Manning, Eli QB 308 24 45 Jones, Kevin RB 192 24 46 Hasselbeck, Matt QB 307 23 47 Taylor, Chester RB 190 22 48 Bulger, Marc QB 305 21 49 Evans, Lee WR 134 19 50 Witten, Jason TE 98 19 51 Miller, Heath TE 97 18 52 Bledsoe, Drew QB 301 17 53 Parker, Willie RB 184 16 54 Jones, Julius RB 184 16 55 Bell, Mike RB 183 15 56 Kennison, Eddie WR 130 15 57 Coles, Laveranues WR 128 13 58 Cooley, Chris TE 92 13 59 Gore, Frank RB 180 12 60 Bush, Reggie RB 177 9 61 Branch, Deion WR 124 9 62 Walker, Javon WR 124 9 63 Jones, Matt WR 123 8 64 Jurevicius, Joe WR 123 8 65 Watson, Ben TE 87 8 66 McNabb, Donovan QB 289 5 67 Dunn, Warrick RB 173 5 68 Bruce, Isaac WR 120 5 69 Givens, David WR 120 5 70 Brown, Reggie WR 120 5 71 Clayton, Michael WR 120 5 72 Glenn, Terry WR 120 5 73 Droughns, Reuben RB 172 4 74 Burleson, Nate WR 119 4 75 Lewis, Jamal RB 171 3 76 Muhammad, Muhsin WR 118 3 77 Warner, Kurt QB 285 1 78 Delhomme, Jake QB 285 1 79 Green, Trent QB 285 1 80 McMichael, Randy TE 80 1 81 McNair, Steve QB 284 0 82 Rhodes, Dominic RB 168 0 83 Johnson, Keyshawn WR 115 0 84 Troupe, Ben TE 79 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soco Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 man thanks for all the info my brain is jello . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 well played BC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 any QB before round 6 is to soon IMO(manning included) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hagler Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Nice work Big Country.... What is the best way to use a list like this on draft day? Should you still have a generic idea of going RB-WR or RB-RB in the first 2 Rounds---and then fill in your other positions based on value from this list. For example, in Round 3, you're deciding if you should take Driver or T.Brady----take Driver based on valuation....? Please explain. It has bee nbeat to death. But, still many people do not seem to get it. 4 pt TDs, 6 pt TDs, etc. do not affect QB values, and QBs are less valuable becasue you only start one and there are many of them that will do well. In several posts, I have shown basic method of determining value, simply put, you subtract how many FF pts you think the last starter at each position will score from the other players in the position, so that each starter has a positive value, with the last starter at each position having an equal value of 0. So, taking the projections provides here at thehuddle.com, I have done the work for you to illustrate how this principle works, and why taking Manning in the first is generally a poor decision. The method is simple. This is based on a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (K and D ignored for this purpose). So, I took the numbers projected by thehuddle for the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs and top 12 TEs, and I generated the value numbers. I then grouped all of the players into one list and sorted by value. The main thing that jumps out is that because of the third required WR, they are very close in value to the RBs (another topic that has been discussed greatly about how the NUMBER of starters is the largest factor in value, not scoring system), if not a better value in the 2nd round. However, this has to be tempered by the fact that many owners will take third RBs within the first 5 rounds (many articles on draft strategy do reccomend adding those in to your valuation formula, thus increasing RB values even more). Low and behold Manning shows up at #28, which is early third round value, just has been espoused by so many posters on the boards. By taking Manning so early, you are giving up better value, or, put better, you are giving better value to your opponents, making it all the more difficult for you to catch up when you are scrambling later on to fill in your starting lineup. Without further ado, here is the list: Rank Player POS FF Pts* Value 1 Johnson, Larry RB 375 207 2 Tomlinson, Ladainian RB 325 157 3 Alexander, Shaun RB 311 143 4 Barber, Tiki RB 269 101 5 Holt, Torry WR 208 93 6 Johnson, Chad WR 207 92 7 Gates, Antonio TE 168 89 8 Smith, Steve WR 203 88 9 Boldin, Anquan WR 196 81 10 Fitzgerald, Larry WR 195 80 11 Brown, Ronnie RB 246 78 12 Moss, Randy WR 191 76 13 Owens, Terrell WR 189 74 14 Jackson, Steven RB 239 71 15 Portis, Clinton RB 238 70 16 James, Edgerrin RB 236 68 17 Harrison, Marvin WR 180 65 18 Shockey, Jeremy TE 142 63 19 Williams, Carnell RB 230 62 20 Heap, Todd TE 138 59 21 Wayne, Reggie WR 171 56 22 Driver, Donald WR 170 55 23 Johnson, Rudi RB 222 54 24 Williams, Roy WR 169 54 25 McGahee, Willis RB 220 52 26 Jordan, Lamont RB 218 50 27 Chambers, Chris WR 165 50 28 Manning, Peyton QB 333 49 29 Mason, Derrick WR 164 49 30 Crumpler, Alge TE 128 49 31 Westbrook, Brian RB 216 48 32 Jackson, Darrell WR 163 48 33 Johnson, Andre WR 160 45 34 Burress, Plaxico WR 158 43 35 Moss, Santana WR 157 42 36 Ward, Hines WR 156 41 37 Gonzalez, Tony TE 116 37 38 Brady, Tom QB 318 34 39 Horn, Joe WR 149 34 40 Smith, L.J. TE 112 33 41 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR 146 31 42 Smith, Rod WR 142 27 43 Palmer, Carson QB 310 26 44 Manning, Eli QB 308 24 45 Jones, Kevin RB 192 24 46 Hasselbeck, Matt QB 307 23 47 Taylor, Chester RB 190 22 48 Bulger, Marc QB 305 21 49 Evans, Lee WR 134 19 50 Witten, Jason TE 98 19 51 Miller, Heath TE 97 18 52 Bledsoe, Drew QB 301 17 53 Parker, Willie RB 184 16 54 Jones, Julius RB 184 16 55 Bell, Mike RB 183 15 56 Kennison, Eddie WR 130 15 57 Coles, Laveranues WR 128 13 58 Cooley, Chris TE 92 13 59 Gore, Frank RB 180 12 60 Bush, Reggie RB 177 9 61 Branch, Deion WR 124 9 62 Walker, Javon WR 124 9 63 Jones, Matt WR 123 8 64 Jurevicius, Joe WR 123 8 65 Watson, Ben TE 87 8 66 McNabb, Donovan QB 289 5 67 Dunn, Warrick RB 173 5 68 Bruce, Isaac WR 120 5 69 Givens, David WR 120 5 70 Brown, Reggie WR 120 5 71 Clayton, Michael WR 120 5 72 Glenn, Terry WR 120 5 73 Droughns, Reuben RB 172 4 74 Burleson, Nate WR 119 4 75 Lewis, Jamal RB 171 3 76 Muhammad, Muhsin WR 118 3 77 Warner, Kurt QB 285 1 78 Delhomme, Jake QB 285 1 79 Green, Trent QB 285 1 80 McMichael, Randy TE 80 1 81 McNair, Steve QB 284 0 82 Rhodes, Dominic RB 168 0 83 Johnson, Keyshawn WR 115 0 84 Troupe, Ben TE 79 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingsleyjr Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 There is noooo way this is the last word on this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Nice work Big Country.... What is the best way to use a list like this on draft day? Should you still have a generic idea of going RB-WR or RB-RB in the first 2 Rounds---and then fill in your other positions based on value from this list. For example, in Round 3, you're deciding if you should take Driver or T.Brady----take Driver based on valuation....? Please explain. What I do is use the list as a guide of where I am likely to find value, but I apply my knowledge of draft trends, etc to try to see where I will get best value at my future picks. SO, let's say in this example I would expect Brady and one other QBs to go before my next pick, but I would expect 6 WRs to go, I would look to see what I would be considering at my next pick (in this case, Eli, a 6 point drop, or Santana Moss, a 13 point drop). IMO, this makes the decision easy, Driver not only clearly has more value, but, I also would expect to lose more value by NOT taking him and taking Brady instead. As the key is to build the starting lineup with the most overall value, there are times (generally 3rd round on)where you will take a lesser overall value player because the expected drop off in value to your next pick is so great at another position, thus the reason so many mid tier RBs are taken in the 2nd and early 3rd round, the drop off there is simply greater than at WR and especially QB, meaning it is easier to make up ground by waiting on those positions as you lose less in value by passing on them to take RBs early where you will suffer a much greater value hit by waiting. ANd, remember, this value hit is greater in leagues that start less WRs, or have a flex spot that opens up a 3rd starting RB possibility, both settings that increase RB value and decrease WR value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaw23 Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Good post BC. Manning is taken way too early in drafts to be worth getting in my opinion. QB's that score high points are much easier to come by then the drop off in RB or WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suppasonic Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Its about where I have him. I wouldn't draft a QB in the first two rounds, but If im sitting pretty with two good RBs, I'd take the bite at Peyton in the 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tracerbullet Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 (edited) Wanted to bump this. I finally sat down and had a look at this, and it makes a lot of sense. I'm considering getting into an online draft somewhere paid (CBS, Antsports, somewhere else?) and trying it out. I can see some tweaking on draft day of course - for example, Gates is #7 on the list, but you pretty well know you can wait until round 3 to get him, so you go ahead and take someone at a different position on your first pick. I'd expect to make my own list of projected stats (I won't totally agree with the Huddle writers, and I'll probably have a different scoring system), and I'd also have an idea of what I think "typical" draft positions are for certain players (TE, K, and D) to weigh against. But with that knowledge, and rearranging my list this way, going ahead and trying another draft to see how it works. Wondered if anyone (Big Country?) has done this and how it worked out for you? Anxious to hear about your experiences with it - Edited September 5, 2006 by tracerbullet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLGRAF Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Big Country, If someone is still planning to use their first round pick on Manning, they are a lost cause. Nice of you to try to dissuade them, but, maybe they need to draft Manning in the first one time, then experience falling short on RBs to learn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 29, 2007 Author Share Posted July 29, 2007 Bump as the discussions are starting up again on this. If I get the time, perhaps I will update the "value" list based on this years projected stats from the huddle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxfactor Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Bump as the discussions are starting up again on this. If I get the time, perhaps I will update the "value" list based on this years projected stats from the huddle. That would be mighty righteous of you BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Very nice assessment. Can we get this pinned? While I agree with this I would still be hard pressed to pass on Peyton for Chambers or a TE not named Gates. But I think it proves the point that his greatest value in the draft is at the end of the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted July 30, 2007 Share Posted July 30, 2007 Until it gets pinned or in case it doesn't, I'll gladly bump it in hopes of saving someone the trouble of starting their own thread on this topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 30, 2007 Author Share Posted July 30, 2007 Very nice assessment. Can we get this pinned? While I agree with this I would still be hard pressed to pass on Peyton for Chambers or a TE not named Gates. But I think it proves the point that his greatest value in the draft is at the end of the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. It will certainly be interesting to see where the players fall with this year's projections. Granted, even with the "value" list, there is a point where common sense comes into play, as you noted in taking Manning over some of the WRs or non-Gates TE that may be values near him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URLACHERisGOD Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 In several posts, I have shown basic method of determining value, simply put, you subtract how many FF pts you think the last starter at each position will score from the other players in the position, so that each starter has a positive value, with the last starter at each position having an equal value of 0. The analysis that follows this paragraph, does not follow. What you are talking about here is a "worst starter method". If I understand your analysis correctly, you are taking the value base and calculating the drop off of the next worst starter before your next pick. If you use the value base as the baseline for your draft, use a standard scoring method, in a 12 team IDP league, then Manning should go around pick 6, Steve Smith and Tory Holt would go 4 and 5, and Gates would go #10. I don't know of any leagues that have drafted that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 The analysis that follows this paragraph, does not follow. What you are talking about here is a "worst starter method". If I understand your analysis correctly, you are taking the value base and calculating the drop off of the next worst starter before your next pick. If you use the value base as the baseline for your draft, use a standard scoring method, in a 12 team IDP league, then Manning should go around pick 6, Steve Smith and Tory Holt would go 4 and 5, and Gates would go #10. I don't know of any leagues that have drafted that way. I believe my response in post #7 addresses your concerns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 (edited) Interesting things to note - Based on the projections from the huddle (I have hidden the actual projection numbers so that only paying members can see them), The top player at each postion is wa towards the top of the value chain, definitely different than last year. For QBs, this is because the projections for Manning are higher and the projections for the #12 QB are down slightly (a few points). There is also a hugh bunching of WRs in the 13-20 range of value... This goes to show you that value can be had at WR later on as the values of RBs drop very fast. This was addressed in one of responses earlier and I hope clarifies the concerns from Urlacher's post. As stated, this list shuld not be used as a draft list, it should be used as a tool to illustrate where value can be had. In this case, I think it shows good WR value can be had a bit later Player Pos Team Bye Value Tomlinson, Ladainian RB SDC 7 146 Jackson, Steven RB STL 9 104 Smith, Steve WR CAR 7 90 Gates, Antonio TE SDC 7 87 Manning, Peyton QB IND 6 87 Gore, Frank RB SFO 6 85 Johnson, Chad WR CIN 5 78 Johnson, Larry RB KCC 8 77 Owens, Terrell WR DAL 8 77 Alexander, Shaun RB SEA 8 68 Harrison, Marvin WR IND 6 65 Brady, Tom QB NEP 10 64 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 6 64 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 8 63 Holt, Torry WR STL 9 63 Williams, Roy WR DET 6 63 Evans, Lee WR BUF 6 62 Johnson, Andre WR HOU 10 62 Moss, Randy WR NEP 10 62 Driver, Donald WR GBP 7 61 Colston, Marques WR NOS 4 55 Burress, Plaxico WR NYG 9 54 Palmer, Carson QB CIN 5 54 Brees, Drew QB NOS 4 53 Gonzalez, Tony TE KCC 8 52 Bulger, Marc QB STL 9 48 Coles, Laveranues WR NYJ 10 46 Kitna, Jon QB DET 6 45 Addai, Joseph RB IND 6 43 Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 8 43 Galloway, Joey WR TBB 10 42 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR CIN 5 42 Clayton, Mark WR BAL 8 41 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA 9 40 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 5 40 Parker, Willie RB PIT 6 39 Branch, Deion WR SEA 8 38 Winslow Jr., Kellen TE CLE 7 38 Shockey, Jeremy TE NYG 9 37 Heap, Todd TE BAL 8 35 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 5 35 Davis, Vernon TE SFO 6 34 Cooley, Chris TE WAS 4 33 Henry, Travis RB DEN 6 32 Chambers, Chris WR MIA 9 31 Holmes, Santonio WR PIT 6 31 Romo, Tony QB DAL 8 27 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 5 27 Benson, Cedric RB CHI 9 26 Maroney, Laurence RB NEP 10 26 Edwards, Braylon WR CLE 7 24 Portis, Clinton RB WAS 4 24 James, Edgerrin RB ARI 8 23 Walker, Javon WR DEN 6 23 Brown, Reggie WR PHI 5 20 Jones, Thomas RB NYJ 10 20 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 4 20 Crumpler, Alge TE ATL 8 17 Henderson, Devery WR NOS 4 17 McGahee, Willis RB BAL 8 17 Young, Vince QB TEN 4 17 Jackson, Darrell WR SFO 6 14 Jenkins, Michael WR ATL 8 13 Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ 10 12 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 9 11 Smith, L.J. TE PHI 5 11 Witten, Jason TE DAL 8 11 Porter, Jerry WR OAK 5 9 Bush, Reggie RB NOS 4 8 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 5 8 Hackett, D.J. WR SEA 8 7 Leinart, Matt QB ARI 8 7 Lynch, Marshawn RB BUF 6 7 Rivers, Philip QB SDC 7 6 Glenn, Terry WR DAL 8 4 McMichael, Randy TE STL 9 4 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 7 4 Moss, Santana WR WAS 4 3 Curtis, Kevin WR PHI 5 2 Jones, Matt WR JAC 4 1 Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA 8 0 McAllister, Deuce RB NOS 4 0 Scheffler, Tony TE DEN 6 0 Ward, Hines WR PIT 6 0 Edited August 4, 2007 by Big Country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Thanks BC. Outstanding job of presenting this method clearly and concisely. I am reading DMD's book and am busily creating a League Analysis Graph and 3-10-20 (hmmm, just noticed this is how they sell chemical manure, too) for each league I'm in. Keep up the goodwork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qball86 Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 So why doesn't your latest list support taking Manning in the 1st if he's valued at #5 overall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 So why doesn't your latest list support taking Manning in the 1st if he's valued at #5 overall? I will also refer you to my response (#7) above. Say you take Manning in the first. (Value of 87) You are then looking at an RB like Portis or Edge in the 2nd round (value of 24 or so, a 40 point value drop in one round) whereas you could have taken SHaun ALexander instead in the first (value of 65), have waited till the 5th round or later to take a QB like Kitna or Bulger (that same 40 point value drop, but this time 4 rounds later). By going with the lower "valued" Alexander in the first you put yourself in a position to build a higher value overall lineup. You then have the flexibility to go RB or WR in the second (though with the large group of similarly valued WR, it would suggest going RB in the 2nd could be best as your expected value drop at WR is minimal). As that response indicates, this guide is useful to see where value is slipping, but as it pertains to draft values, you must use it with your experience of draft tendencies to see what picks it is that will allow you to build the team with the most overall value. It is the rapid decrease in RB values that essentially make them more valuable. You just can't make up for that quick decrease in value like you can at the other positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lekraus Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 in my league we can start 2 QB's thats why i took both P. Manning and T. Brady with my first 5 picks i got the people with an * by the name QB* P. MANNING QB* TOM BRADY QB JASON CAMPBELL RB* JOSEPH ADDAI RB* CEDRIC BENSON RB CARNELL WILLIAMS RB* ADRIAN PETERSON RB FRED TAYLOR RB DOMINICK RHODES RB MICHAEL BENNETT RB MICHAEL PITTMAN REC SANTONIO HOLMES REC BRAYLON EDWARDS REC MARK CLAYTON REC CHRIS CHAMBERS REC KELLEN WINSLOW KCKR JASON ELAM KCKR MATT STOVER DEF BEARS DEF RAVENS i know that i am weak in RB's and WR's when my top teir players are on their bye weeks but i hope to make up for it when i have them all. i am in a 8 team league so all teams are loaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lekraus Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 It has bee nbeat to death. But, still many people do not seem to get it. 4 pt TDs, 6 pt TDs, etc. do not affect QB values, and QBs are less valuable becasue you only start one and there are many of them that will do well. In several posts, I have shown basic method of determining value, simply put, you subtract how many FF pts you think the last starter at each position will score from the other players in the position, so that each starter has a positive value, with the last starter at each position having an equal value of 0. So, taking the projections provides here at thehuddle.com, I have done the work for you to illustrate how this principle works, and why taking Manning in the first is generally a poor decision. The method is simple. This is based on a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (K and D ignored for this purpose). So, I took the numbers projected by thehuddle for the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs and top 12 TEs, and I generated the value numbers. I then grouped all of the players into one list and sorted by value. The main thing that jumps out is that because of the third required WR, they are very close in value to the RBs (another topic that has been discussed greatly about how the NUMBER of starters is the largest factor in value, not scoring system), if not a better value in the 2nd round. However, this has to be tempered by the fact that many owners will take third RBs within the first 5 rounds (many articles on draft strategy do reccomend adding those in to your valuation formula, thus increasing RB values even more). Low and behold Manning shows up at #28, which is early third round value, just has been espoused by so many posters on the boards. By taking Manning so early, you are giving up better value, or, put better, you are giving better value to your opponents, making it all the more difficult for you to catch up when you are scrambling later on to fill in your starting lineup. Without further ado, here is the list: Rank Player POS FF Pts* Value 1 Johnson, Larry RB 375 207 2 Tomlinson, Ladainian RB 325 157 3 Alexander, Shaun RB 311 143 4 Barber, Tiki RB 269 101 5 Holt, Torry WR 208 93 6 Johnson, Chad WR 207 92 7 Gates, Antonio TE 168 89 8 Smith, Steve WR 203 88 9 Boldin, Anquan WR 196 81 10 Fitzgerald, Larry WR 195 80 11 Brown, Ronnie RB 246 78 12 Moss, Randy WR 191 76 13 Owens, Terrell WR 189 74 14 Jackson, Steven RB 239 71 15 Portis, Clinton RB 238 70 16 James, Edgerrin RB 236 68 17 Harrison, Marvin WR 180 65 18 Shockey, Jeremy TE 142 63 19 Williams, Carnell RB 230 62 20 Heap, Todd TE 138 59 21 Wayne, Reggie WR 171 56 22 Driver, Donald WR 170 55 23 Johnson, Rudi RB 222 54 24 Williams, Roy WR 169 54 25 McGahee, Willis RB 220 52 26 Jordan, Lamont RB 218 50 27 Chambers, Chris WR 165 50 28 Manning, Peyton QB 333 49 29 Mason, Derrick WR 164 49 30 Crumpler, Alge TE 128 49 31 Westbrook, Brian RB 216 48 32 Jackson, Darrell WR 163 48 33 Johnson, Andre WR 160 45 34 Burress, Plaxico WR 158 43 35 Moss, Santana WR 157 42 36 Ward, Hines WR 156 41 37 Gonzalez, Tony TE 116 37 38 Brady, Tom QB 318 34 39 Horn, Joe WR 149 34 40 Smith, L.J. TE 112 33 41 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR 146 31 42 Smith, Rod WR 142 27 43 Palmer, Carson QB 310 26 44 Manning, Eli QB 308 24 45 Jones, Kevin RB 192 24 46 Hasselbeck, Matt QB 307 23 47 Taylor, Chester RB 190 22 48 Bulger, Marc QB 305 21 49 Evans, Lee WR 134 19 50 Witten, Jason TE 98 19 51 Miller, Heath TE 97 18 52 Bledsoe, Drew QB 301 17 53 Parker, Willie RB 184 16 54 Jones, Julius RB 184 16 55 Bell, Mike RB 183 15 56 Kennison, Eddie WR 130 15 57 Coles, Laveranues WR 128 13 58 Cooley, Chris TE 92 13 59 Gore, Frank RB 180 12 60 Bush, Reggie RB 177 9 61 Branch, Deion WR 124 9 62 Walker, Javon WR 124 9 63 Jones, Matt WR 123 8 64 Jurevicius, Joe WR 123 8 65 Watson, Ben TE 87 8 66 McNabb, Donovan QB 289 5 67 Dunn, Warrick RB 173 5 68 Bruce, Isaac WR 120 5 69 Givens, David WR 120 5 70 Brown, Reggie WR 120 5 71 Clayton, Michael WR 120 5 72 Glenn, Terry WR 120 5 73 Droughns, Reuben RB 172 4 74 Burleson, Nate WR 119 4 75 Lewis, Jamal RB 171 3 76 Muhammad, Muhsin WR 118 3 77 Warner, Kurt QB 285 1 78 Delhomme, Jake QB 285 1 79 Green, Trent QB 285 1 80 McMichael, Randy TE 80 1 81 McNair, Steve QB 284 0 82 Rhodes, Dominic RB 168 0 83 Johnson, Keyshawn WR 115 0 84 Troupe, Ben TE 79 0 where is Addai on your list isn't he good enough to make it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 where is Addai on your list isn't he good enough to make it? The original post was from Aug of 2006. You don't have to agree but it makes a good point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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