JAX WRs - friggin "WRBC" mess?

[BeeR]

I drafted Jones in one league and just cut him (small league) - Wilford was also touted by some as coming on but has also fizzled while the rocket scientist R Wms of all people seems to be emerging. Think the trends continue? Thoughts on values of all/any?

[H8tank]

There is no thinking required.

 

Jones is hurt, Wilford has not met expectations, Reggie williams is the 5th ranked fantasy WR in the league right now.

 

http://www.thehuddle.com/stats/2006/plays_...pos=WR&col=fpts

 

If you can't figure that out, have fun voting D in 4 weeks.

[bushwacked]

I drafted Jones in one league and just cut him (small league) - Wilford was also touted by some as coming on but has also fizzled while the rocket scientist R Wms of all people seems to be emerging. Think the trends continue? Thoughts on values of all/any?

 

 

 

If Matt Jones gets healthy he will start putting up better stats. Ernest Wilford is Ernest Wilford and can contribute as a semi #2/ solid #3 position receiver. Almost everyone wrote off R. Williams before the season started, but a few here made posts about how he had a good chance to get his chance in Jax this year. R. Williams is a very talented guy and I am very satisfied to see him emerge as a laaate round pick I snagged in numerous leagues. Even before M. Jones was riddled w/ injury, he looked to R. Williams a bunch.

 

My thought is that R. Williams is the man and Matt Jones will become kind of a deluxe Joe Jureviecius type guy career wise. Pretty good combo.

[Rockerbraves]

I drafted Jones in one league and just cut him (small league) - Wilford was also touted by some as coming on but has also fizzled while the rocket scientist R Wms of all people seems to be emerging. Think the trends continue? Thoughts on values of all/any?

 

 

Reggie is the only one of value

[keggerz]

my take from earlier this year http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...hl=jacksonville

[keggerz]

i just added to my jax thread projections post:

 

In this thread Brentastic wanted me to do Wayne/Harrison but I said that Jax would be a bit easier to do....hard to figure for how age will effect marvin this yr coupled with edge leaving town...

 

Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs

 

I again looked at the previous 3 yrs

 

Offensive Plays Ran:

2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass)

2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays)

2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays)

3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays)

 

I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays)

 

PASSING STATS:

2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9%

2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5%

2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1%

 

going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections

 

RECVNG STATS:

2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds)

WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

*Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games)

 

2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds)

WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

 

2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds)

WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds)

WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds)

OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections

There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course):

1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04

2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006.

 

2006 Projections:

1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass)

PASSING

59% Completion %

295 Completions

500 Attempts

3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds)

 

RECVNG

WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards

WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards

WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage)

 

So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be:

WR1=72/1122

WR2=45/612

WR3=39/442

 

as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs....

 

hope someone finds that this helps if not

 

I think i got pretty lucky on my projections...

 

well thru 5 games for the jags:

 

they are on pace to have 14 less offensive plays then their 3 yr avg.

 

they are on pace to:

pass for 49.7 of their offensive plays

rush for 50.3 of their offensive plays

exactly what their 3 yr avg is!

 

Leftwich is on pace for:

308 comp.(i projected 295)

496 attempts(i projected 500)

3309 yards (I projected 3400, ck out the bold above)

22TDs(I did not project TDs, not sure why)

 

now in my projections I didnt commit to who would be #1, #2 or #3 but looking at how they are thru 5 games:

 

Reggie is #1

Willford #2(most due to injury of Matt)

Matt #3

 

How those 3 project out using the 1st 5games as a trend and extrapolating from it:

Reggie

77 catches(i projected 72 for the #1)

950 yards(i projected 1122 for the #1)

 

Wilford

45 catches(i projected 45 for the #2)

598 yards(i projected 612 for the #2)

 

Matt Jones

42 catches(i projected 39 for the #3)

502 yards(i projected 442 for the #3)

 

I do think that come the end of the year if Matt Jones can get healthy he will be the one with the #2 WR stats

also dont over look the 2 games with less then 140 yards passing in them in the 1st 5, I think there is still room for Lefty to meet my projections and even possibly surpass them a bit....if that happens then the WRs will most likely all improve upon my projections too.

Edited October 12, 2006 by keggerz