crispirons Posted October 14, 2006 Share Posted October 14, 2006 these teams are automatic go-against all yr. you will end up with a great winning percentage and a nice little bankroll. stanford temple illinois north carolina only so many games left so get what you can out of it. a few good squads out there winning money regularly are missouri and cal. both are still flying a little under the radar of the "big" football schools. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 these teams are automatic go-against all yr. you will end up with a great winning percentage and a nice little bankroll. stanford temple illinois north carolina only so many games left so get what you can out of it. a few good squads out there winning money regularly are missouri and cal. both are still flying a little under the radar of the "big" football schools. Bet against any team the week after playing LSU. The Tigers are putting a hurt (physically) on everyone they play win or lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted October 17, 2006 Share Posted October 17, 2006 these teams are automatic go-against all yr. you will end up with a great winning percentage and a nice little bankroll. stanford temple illinois north carolina only so many games left so get what you can out of it. a few good squads out there winning money regularly are missouri and cal. both are still flying a little under the radar of the "big" football schools. I actually won $$ on Stanford against Notre Dame....but I see your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 18, 2006 Author Share Posted October 18, 2006 I actually won $$ on Stanford against Notre Dame....but I see your point. that is stanfords lone cover of the season if i'mnot mistaken. just checked, i'm not. notre dame is one of those teams that gets way too much public backing. and they aren't that good ats. vegas knows this and cleans up on this yearly. stanfords other games this yr @oregon. stanford 13 pt dogs lose 48-10 @sanjose st. san jose st is horrible this yr. stanford 10 pt favorites lose 35-34 vs. navy. navy started as 2 pt dogs and got moved to 1 pt favorites. crush stanford 37-9 vs. wazzou. stanford 10 pt dogs at home. lose 36-10 @ucla. line moved from ucla -20 to -24. bruins cruise 31-0. @notre dame. bloated line of 32 to start. even vegas knew they had the number wrong as irish went off -30. only cover losing 31-10 last week they lost straight up and ats against arizona at home. this week however, i'm a little less certain. they travel to asu and are getting another bloated number +22.5. also interesting to note, the cardinals were 7-3 ats last yr and outright beat asu as a 10 pt dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeeman Posted October 19, 2006 Share Posted October 19, 2006 this week however, i'm a little less certain. they travel to asu and are getting another bloated number +22.5. also interesting to note, the cardinals were 7-3 ats last yr and outright beat asu as a 10 pt dog. I'm afraid this calls into question the entire bold statement made in opening the thread. Picking straight up is always much easier than ATS. ATS is how Vegas continues to make money vs. the 'public backing'. I could maybe agree with you early in the year, when the unknown affects the public and the oddsmakers almost equally, but not now after 6-7 games. The more data they have, the better they are at setting the lines. Not that they're all brilliant or anything - if that was your job and you did it 40-50 hours/week, after a couple years you'd be better at it than Joe Public too. Then again, they may have some actuaries working for them, who can crunch #s like nobody's business. I work for a large insurance co., so I know what those braniacs can do when they calculate 'risk vs. reward'. It's either rocket science or big business (ie. insurance) for these CalTech types... If beating the ATS was so easy, we'd all do it and make more money than Vegas does. Of course, then they'd stop playing sports and focus more on the tables... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 19, 2006 Author Share Posted October 19, 2006 i think your missing my point coffeeman. i'm saying that betting against these teams ats, no matter what the spread, will result in a nice payoff for the rest of the season. i don't think i'm going out on too much of a limb here but i would expect at the minimum a 70% win ratio the rest of the way out. i'll keep tabs and see what it ends up. this week we have: north carolina @ virginia. virginia -6.5. the cavs aren't that good this yr but i see an easy win here tonight. illinois @ penn st. penn st. -17.5. looks like blowout, smells like blowout, well golly, must be a blowout. temple @ northernillinois. northern ill. -34 northern will score alot, however there defense isn't that good. if somehow the owls were to score 2 t.d.s, we might lose this one. whispers are that the temple games may not be on the board anymore. stanford @ asu. asu -23. bloated number. i think we'll still get home on time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 (edited) this week however, i'm a little less certain. they travel to asu and are getting another bloated number +22.5. also interesting to note, the cardinals were 7-3 ats last yr and outright beat asu as a 10 pt dog. Less certain? That's no way to sell. Take a stand. lol By default I have to back down from my betting theory as well. Correct me if I am wrong but I'm pretty sure no team has covered the week after playing LSU. The problem with my theory this week is that Kentucky is on bye after getting trounce by the Tigers 49-0. Although I'm pretty certain the Cats would have preferred the chance from a morale standpoint to get back on track this weekend, it's probably best they take time to heal. Edited October 20, 2006 by Rockerbraves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Less certain? That's no way to sell. Take a stand. lol i'm only less certain on that asu vs stanford game. asu off last weeks game with usc may play a little down. virginia shut out feeble north carolina last night and i expect the nittany lions to impose their will on the illini. northern illinois might cover against temple by halftime......34 pts. clemson could have scored a 100 on them last week had they wanted too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Temple plus the points vs Bowling Green today. Heard it here first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted October 29, 2006 Share Posted October 29, 2006 Outright winner!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefjay Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 these teams are automatic go-against all yr. you will end up with a great winning percentage and a nice little bankroll. stanford temple illinois north carolina only so many games left so get what you can out of it. a few good squads out there winning money regularly are missouri and cal. both are still flying a little under the radar of the "big" football schools. Did 3 of the 4 cover this week with Stanford on a bye or was UNC under a 7 pt dog? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 hmm, thats weird. i posted here congratulating vinatieri on his pick and its not here. bizarro. yes, since making that stupid ass statement, i'm pretty sure that it has been a losing proposition. the illini played way over there head in the game against the badgers. still, i'll probably keep playing most of these games week in and week out. oh, big surprise, the buckeyes got another win and cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Did 3 of the 4 cover this week with Stanford on a bye or was UNC under a 7 pt dog? Wake was 6.5 at the beginning of the week but I did not see a final line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 hmm, thats weird. i posted here congratulating vinatieri on his pick and its not here. bizarro. yes, since making that stupid ass statement, i'm pretty sure that it has been a losing proposition. the illini played way over there head in the game against the badgers. still, i'll probably keep playing most of these games week in and week out. oh, big surprise, the buckeyes got another win and cover. Thanks for the pseudo kudos (hey neat). Isn't that usually how it works? You have a nice run of wins going until you actually tell someone about it, then it goes south and they rip you. I have a group of guys that exchange email picks on Friday trying to pinpoint a winner. Well, one week I was out of town and didn't get the emails. Went 5-0 that week and none of them believe me. I've had a decent stretch since then and every Friday I refuse to tell those guys what I'm playing. Crash Davis - "Never screw with a winning streak" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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