rattsass Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 I predicted in my column last week that the spread for this game would hit 12 before kickoff, but my source is now showing a line of 13 points and still going up. The money is piling in on the Bears. Is the house actually going to get their clock cleaned on this game? Because they apparently can't move the line enough to gather any action on Arizona yet. And they have closed the moneyline altogether. I know it makes absolutely no sense to think that the Cardinals can hang in this game. But unless they do, it looks like the bookmakers are going to get slaughtered tonight. Very interesting situation here. Someone is going to get burned big-time. My money is on the betting public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 The line would have to be 25 before I bet any money on the Cards... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Where did the line open? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 16, 2006 Author Share Posted October 16, 2006 Where did the line open? The line opened at 10. I understand most of you think this is crazy to think anything other than an azz kicking is in line for the Cards, and to tell you the truth, I am still having a hard time convincing myself otherwise. That defensive line against the Cards offensive line looks like a slaughter in the making, and it may very well work out that way. I'm just giving you a friendly warning. if it looks too good to be true.......... I'm not going to do anything crazy, but my money will go on the Cards....after I see if I can squeeze out another half point or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 The line opened at 10. I understand most of you think this is crazy to think anything other than an azz kicking is in line for the Cards, and to tell you the truth, I am still having a hard time convincing myself otherwise. That defensive line against the Cards offensive line looks like a slaughter in the making, and it may very well work out that way. I'm just giving you a friendly warning. if it looks too good to be true.......... I'm not going to do anything crazy, but my money will go on the Cards....after I see if I can squeeze out another half point or so. It looks as likely a trap game as any other so far this year. The problem is in the trenches on both sides - and that's where the trap falls apart. CHI is head & shoulders (and waist & kees) above AZ in the line play on both sides of the ball. All the sexy skill players AZ has don't mean a thing if Leinart is on his back all night and can't get to a 5 step drop, much less a 7 step, without being severly harassed. That same thing goes double when CHI rams the ball down AZ's throat and the RBs are in the second level all night before they get touches, and that only enhances the CHI passing game when AZ is forced to bring up the SS in an effort to stop the run because their front 7 is being overwhelmed badly. Real players know the game starts in the line play, and that's where the Bears beat the trap. IMO, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 It looks as likely a trap game as any other so far this year. The problem is in the trenches on both sides - and that's where the trap falls apart. CHI is head & shoulders (and waist & kees) above AZ in the line play on both sides of the ball. All the sexy skill players AZ has don't mean a thing if Leinart is on his back all night and can't get to a 5 step drop, much less a 7 step, without being severly harassed. That same thing goes double when CHI rams the ball down AZ's throat and the RBs are in the second level all night before they get touches, and that only enhances the CHI passing game when AZ is forced to bring up the SS in an effort to stop the run because their front 7 is being overwhelmed badly. Real players know the game starts in the line play, and that's where the Bears beat the trap. IMO, of course. Good post. The same logic explains why the Colts failed miserably to cover the 18 1/2 point spread against TEN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 16, 2006 Author Share Posted October 16, 2006 It looks as likely a trap game as any other so far this year. The problem is in the trenches on both sides - and that's where the trap falls apart. CHI is head & shoulders (and waist & kees) above AZ in the line play on both sides of the ball. All the sexy skill players AZ has don't mean a thing if Leinart is on his back all night and can't get to a 5 step drop, much less a 7 step, without being severly harassed. That same thing goes double when CHI rams the ball down AZ's throat and the RBs are in the second level all night before they get touches, and that only enhances the CHI passing game when AZ is forced to bring up the SS in an effort to stop the run because their front 7 is being overwhelmed badly. Real players know the game starts in the line play, and that's where the Bears beat the trap. IMO, of course. I totally understand and agree with what you are saying. It makes no sense to bet the Cardinals in this game. The Bears should totally dominate. But then again, the Broncos should have dominated the Raiders last night, and it was a 10 point game. I guess I have just been burned too many times in the past in situations like this. And I'm just a bit cynical when it comes to making myself believe the books are going to take a severe beating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 The same logic explains why the Colts failed miserably to cover the 18 1/2 point spread against TEN. And why Denver didnt cover 14 against Oakland last night. And why Washington didnt cover 10 against the Titans yesterday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chancellor Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Any thoughts on the over? Is it still at 40? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 (edited) I totally understand and agree with what you are saying. It makes no sense to bet the Cardinals in this game. The Bears should totally dominate. But then again, the Broncos should have dominated the Raiders last night, and it was a 10 point game. I guess I have just been burned too many times in the past in situations like this. And I'm just a bit cynical when it comes to making myself believe the books are going to take a severe beating. I understand completely. A double digit spread in the pros is huge - especially on the road, no matter who is playing whom. If you are going to play a double digit favorite, you have to find a good reason to bet it - and with me that starts with the running game on each side. If a team can't run the ball effectively and also stop the other teams' running game, it's usually in big trouble & will have a difficult time covering a large spread as a dog. A dog in a large spread game has to shorten the game somehow to have a chance - throwing the ball into what eventually become nickle & dime coverages result in a lot of turnovers, which the better team usually converts into points. I don't see how AZ can shorten the game, or effectively run or stop the run. I could see how TEN could run effectively on IND, so that result made sense. I don't know how DEN allowed OAK to stop its run, but Shanahan gave up on the offense at about the middle of the second quarter, preferring to play not to lose the game rather than to win the game - I didn't expect that given the animosity between he & Al Davis (and to be honest I still can't figure it out). Edited October 16, 2006 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 And why Denver didnt cover 14 against Oakland last night. And why Washington didnt cover 10 against the Titans yesterday... I'm not sure about that first part. Denver's O- and D-lines are far superior to Oakland's, correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 16, 2006 Author Share Posted October 16, 2006 Well, at least I have people thinking about it. My work here is done. As far as the over under? Don't think I'll touch it, but if you put a gun to my head I would say OVER. Because if you are going to buy the fact that the Cardinals will cover, it seems likely they would accomplish that through some miraculous plays on offense rather than being able to hold down the Bears offense. Of course if you are of the mind that the Bears cover the spread, I might lean toward under, discounting hte possibility that the Cardinals are able to do anything offensively, and the Bears get a lead and milk the clock with a running game the Cards probably can't stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedi Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 It looks as likely a trap game as any other so far this year. The problem is in the trenches on both sides - and that's where the trap falls apart. CHI is head & shoulders (and waist & kees) above AZ in the line play on both sides of the ball. All the sexy skill players AZ has don't mean a thing if Leinart is on his back all night and can't get to a 5 step drop, much less a 7 step, without being severly harassed. That same thing goes double when CHI rams the ball down AZ's throat and the RBs are in the second level all night before they get touches, and that only enhances the CHI passing game when AZ is forced to bring up the SS in an effort to stop the run because their front 7 is being overwhelmed badly. Real players know the game starts in the line play, and that's where the Bears beat the trap. IMO, of course. And to emphasize it's the offensive line of the Bears where it really gets scary. Not to take anything away from their D-line, but Rex has only been sacked only 4 times... least in the league of full time starters. Proof of how good the Bears are (among other things) came against my beloved Seahawks when our 2005 NFL sack leading defense could only bag Grossman once. So, not to take away from the above point, rather agreeing to it and putting emphasis on the Offensive side of the LOS. Not to digress, I can't see The House winning on 13 points with that Arizona O-line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 CHI 24 ARI 10 ... TJones / Benson combine for 40 touches (30-35 carries), 150-200 yards and 2 TDs ... ... Grossman is 20 for 30 for 200 yds and a TD ... with lots of ball-control passes in the second half to DesClark (7 receptions for 50 yds and possibly a TD) ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shakenbake Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Just called in a tease: Chicago -7 Over 35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 16, 2006 Author Share Posted October 16, 2006 Just called in a tease: Chicago -7 Over 35 Not bad, but I think I'm going the other way with a 7 point tease. Cards +20 over 34. 27-7 puts me on safe ground with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chancellor Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 I think I'm rolling the dice with a Cards/ Over parlay. 12 1/2 is too many points to pass up for a home dog in a primetime matchup coming off a loss. I just hope they can combine for 41. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 (edited) It looks as likely a trap game as any other so far this year. I dunno about that. We've got one of two remaining undefeated teams, playing on Monday Night. I think the Bears are gonna get primative on the Cards, just to make a statement. Maybe Leinhart & Co. can hang in there. But I don't see the Bear slacking off at all. Edited October 16, 2006 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Not bad, but I think I'm going the other way with a 7 point tease. Cards +20 over 34. 27-7 puts me on safe ground with that. i think you answered everything right there. 27-7. bears + under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hollywood_69 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 (edited) i picked zone at +11 the reason is because this is zona's first game on monday night since 1999, and its a home game. so i parlayed zona at +11. to bad the bengals f'ed me -5, they had it until the last minute!!! o well i'm getting much better at picking games the last 2 weeks i'm 6-2-2, and lemme be right about tonight you will have to pay for my advice! Edited October 16, 2006 by hollywood_69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 moneyline at my online book is bears -800 and zona +600. over is still at 40.5 and spread is 12. i'm going down the street to the casino to see what it is there. i'm already down on the bears in some carryover parlay cards i filled out earlier in the week. only laying the 10 there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 It looks as likely a trap game as any other so far this year. The problem is in the trenches on both sides - and that's where the trap falls apart. CHI is head & shoulders (and waist & kees) above AZ in the line play on both sides of the ball. All the sexy skill players AZ has don't mean a thing if Leinart is on his back all night and can't get to a 5 step drop, much less a 7 step, without being severly harassed. That same thing goes double when CHI rams the ball down AZ's throat and the RBs are in the second level all night before they get touches, and that only enhances the CHI passing game when AZ is forced to bring up the SS in an effort to stop the run because their front 7 is being overwhelmed badly. Real players know the game starts in the line play, and that's where the Bears beat the trap. IMO, of course. the Bears D line is a little less potent, Ogunleye inactive per espn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Another for the under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Can't lay -12.5 on a road team. Although I'm not too confident so I'll keep my bet small. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted October 17, 2006 Share Posted October 17, 2006 the Bears D line is a little less potent, Ogunleye inactive per espn I agree that line is less potent without Ogunleye. But he wasn't active last week, and the Bears grilled the Bills. And he had a whopping 1 tackle (and no other stats) in the 37-6 thrashing of the Seahawks. Perhaps his absence would be missed more against a dominant O-line. But we're talking about the Cards', here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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