KC Pass D - something not making sense to me

[xMRogers]

So every week, as is my pattern, I put in my lineups, then check some sources to see if they agree with what i did, then rethink anythign that i may have missed (then on Sunday at 12:15, make some sort of panic move that never pays off - but that's neither here nor there).

 

So I look at the stats for my QB's (Rivers and Delhomme), think about consistency, the Steve Smith angle, then the matchups - and see KC is 3rd against QB's and 4th in the league in pass defense while the Bengals are middle of the road....between all that, go with Delhomme.....99% of the time, my QB choice is pretty universally shared...

 

For some reason, this week, almost everywhere I read, Rivers is looked at as goign to put up good to great numbers against KC (better than Delhomme against Cincy) - I honestly havent' watched KC much, but is KC's pass d ranking a result of no one throwing (even with that game against Pitt, they are up near the top) or is it just the Phillip Rivers bandwagon gaining steam after last week.

[Hat Trick]

I would start Delhomme in a heart beat vs. Rivers for this week.

 

 

To answer your question though

 

Week 1...They had Palmer confused until he went to the no huddle, then he gained moderate yardage, but the running game was pretty successful so they used it primarily against the def.

 

Week 2...Plummer...nuff said...they shut him down until the last drive a push off on Ty Law by the WR wasn't called and set them up for the game winning FG.

 

Week 3...BYE

 

Week 4...They completely dominated and confused Alex SMith in Coverages.

 

Week 5...They didn't show up at all and Ben picked them apart over the middle....which was more due to him having around 7 seconds to pick the secondary apart and that why was he was successful...no push up the middle the Steelers O-line dominated the game and was the reason they won that game so handily.

 

So the jury is still out on whether they are all the sudden a brute force against the pass or not...I don't see Rivers having too much success against the Chiefs @ Arrowhead...maybe somethign like 200 yards 1 td and 1-2 INT's. Delhomme should absolutely light up the CINN secondary.

[Bronco Billy]

You ought to see stats that are very similar for Delhomme & Rivers this week.

 

CAR has the #13 passing O going against the #14 pass D of CIN, with CAR being #21 in passing TDs while CIN is #10 in passing TDs yielded.

 

SD is the 14th best pass O vs the #4 pass D of KC, with SD being #16 in passing TDs vs KC's #6 passing TDs yielded.

 

The spread in numbers is almost identical. When that happens, I pick my QB by looking at 2 factors: 1) Is one team going to blow out the other team (2nd half passing yards will be very limited for a team way ahead, while a team way behind may rack up a lot of yards. A close game should yield pretty close to average numbers), and 2) Is one pass D significantly softer than the other pass D my QBs are matched against (I always like softer Ds if my skill guys figure to be pretty close to matched).

 

Vegas figures both games to be fairly close, with SD opening at -5 1/2 @ KC and CAR opening @ +3 vs CIN. I get a little lean, but not much, to CAR there. KC's pass D is definitely better on paper than CIN's, whether it is because they are a better unit or because they surrender more on the ground (I don't care either way, since I'm looking for stats & not picking against the spread).

 

I'd lean to Delhomme against Rivers in this one. I think you hit the nail on the head with your logic.

[xMRogers]

CAR has the #13 passing O going against the #14 pass D of CIN, with CAR being #21 in passing TDs while CIN is #10 in passing TDs yielded.

 

SD is the 14th best pass O vs the #4 pass D of KC, with SD being #16 in passing TDs vs KC's #6 passing TDs yielded.

 

 

 

It's some of this that I was wondering about - for the most part, the with vs. without Steve Smith is two different Jake Delhomme's, so I really only go by the "with" (although how the he!! a WR with two bad hammy's hasn't gone back down I can't figure out) - Michael Irvin's a moron, but his take that Steve Smith is the MVP of the league has some merit

 

What I couldn't really figure out is that even some of the comments I was seeing all over were almost saying that Rivers had a great passing matchup and Delhomme's was maybe average (which it kinda is) and every fact I was looking at pointed to it being a bit of the opposite

 

Normally don't look for rationale (heck, i think this is like my 20th post in 3 years of any kind), but was really getting thrown by some things.