Standale Connection Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 Great- fantasy season winding down, playoffs right around the corner and I can't seem to make the right decision to save my life. For instance- I started SJAX,C.Taylor and R.Brown last week and had D.Williams and M.Bell on the bench.. (Mcnabb started also) of course I lose.. and now Week 12 is our last week of our regular season and I am tied for first - if I win this week I win - the stress is mounting-is this stuff just blind luck or what are some easy steps to picking the right people to start.. I absolutely need to pull out a win this week.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 is this stuff just blind luck or what are some easy steps to picking the right people to start.. good question. i'm also looking for some sure-thing stock tips if anyone's got any ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussMan Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 I think folks that burn out often have the problem of not knowing who to start becuase they dont have enough clear starters... that is tough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 It's 100% pure, blind luck. So crack open a beer, then 2, then another, and just pick. Because at the end of the day, win or lose, you can still get more beer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxfactor Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 It's 100% pure, blind luck. So crack open a beer, then 2, then another, and just pick. Because at the end of the day, win or lose, you can still get more beer. I like this advice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoil Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 Not that I can manage it every year, but I usually like to start clearing my bench out around weeks 8-9 to get a set of 8 starters that I don't have to think about, and complete it by getting the handcuffs at RB. After that, it's plug-n-play and hope it's enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted November 21, 2006 Share Posted November 21, 2006 good question. i'm also looking for some sure-thing stock tips if anyone's got any ... google. jim cramer has been touting it for a while now. i remember him talking about it when it was about 350 or just under. its now over 500 in less than a yr. he has adjusted his target price all along. he now thinks it has a serious chance to surpass 600. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 there is something different about this year....I have had the toughest time gauging trade vale and knowing which end is up.... I keep looming around .500 and keep being in last place, but 1 game out of 1st... this has definately been one of the more stranger years... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 It's 100% pure, blind luck. So crack open a beer, then 2, then another, and just pick. Because at the end of the day, win or lose, you can still get more beer. I pick em by throwing darts at my computer monitor... the suction cup type. The pointy ones stick OK, but then you have to get a new monitor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junebugz Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 good question. i'm also looking for some sure-thing stock tips if anyone's got any ... buy low ... sell high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Stock tip: Knowing when to sell is more important than knowing when to buy. PS - DMD has a nice list of expected FF stats by player on the home page; you may want to try looking there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Not that I can manage it every year, but I usually like to start clearing my bench out around weeks 8-9 to get a set of 8 starters that I don't have to think about, and complete it by getting the handcuffs at RB. After that, it's plug-n-play and hope it's enough. I pretty much do the same thing. I don't always make the right deals, but, I make it so that I have clear-cut starters. The only position I switch around is my flex player. I take the player who the huddle says will score the most points and plug him in, or I just use my gut because I like the matchup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Pretty much know it's luck if you start two similiar type FF producing players. Think what gets most people are those times when you start a hunch type player. Yes when it hits you are a genuis however in most cases you're better off playing the obvious choice. If there are 2 equal choices that's where the luck comes in. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 I'm with you, and made a collosal mistake two weeks ago. At trade deadline, traded Sjax for Jav W and Edge - reason being I had a Taylor doing nothing for me ont he bench (Westy is other RB) and I was getting killed at WR cause had about 4 that were all equal... So far, the trade has worked out ok (gone 1-1 since, and without the trade, would have gone 1-1 although opposite games). However, it's caused me a ton of anxiety each week because my WR corps settled out to two starters....before Jwalk - so now have to play matchup of three (Driver and Wayne and Jwalk), and obviously at RB need to figure out which of Taylor or Edge to start (usually taylor, but Edge last week and in a few weeks probably). Where I'm going with this - early in the season, tradign for depth is a good thing. To do it essentially in week 10 like I did was very dumb - much rather have a set roster every week then figuring things out (if someone gets hurt though, i'll be back here saying what a smart guy I was) Need one more win to wrap up playoff berth - what scares me is twice I've been in this "up 2 or 3 games on 5th place team with three to play - looking good" role over the last six years, and both times ended up fallign apart and on the outside looking in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 good question. i'm also looking for some sure-thing stock tips if anyone's got any ... As Per Warren Buffett: Rule 1: Don't Lose Money Rule 2: Don't Forget Rule 1 As for this season, play your best players. Don't worry too much about the matchups and don't worry about what you leave on your bench. Make your lineup early, kick back, and root like hell! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 I used to mess with my lineups all week, making changes right up to KO even when there were no injury issues. Now I set it during the week, usually Thursday and leave it unless there's an injury. I found that I was easily getting the worst of it by fiddling around with the lineup. This year has been way better than last and I'm not frazzled from tying myself in knots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelerMurf Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Every year I start out setting my lineup and never looking back and I start out great. Then for some reason I start looking at my bench and making strong cases to start someone there. I then start hitting the "who to start" message boards. I end up screwing myself up with other people's opinions and start doubting mine. I usually at about this time of the year start trusting myself and stop looking for validation from others. Trust my gut and I would probably have one other win and about 100 more overall points for the year and be the points leader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightsOutTerp Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 My team is making decisions for me by getting injoored Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Grey Pilgrim Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 I don't understand the 2nd quessing of your decisions. Prior to the games being played, RBrown, CTaylor, and SJax were clearly your picks. The Bell brothers are way to difficult to call, and DWilliams hadn't had a good game in a long long time. What's to 2nd guess?? Because it didn't work out? You are confusing making the proper decisions before the games, with hindsight. Can't be done, or you'll go crazy. Remember, a great gambler wins 65% of his plays. And recognizes that the winning formula is wrong 1/3 of the time. You have to live with that, and not 2nd guess because the result didn't match the properly planned expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 I used to mess with my lineups all week, making changes right up to KO even when there were no injury issues. Now I set it during the week, usually Thursday and leave it unless there's an injury. I found that I was easily getting the worst of it by fiddling around with the lineup. This year has been way better than last and I'm not frazzled from tying myself in knots. Do me a favor and do that last minute thingy in at least one of your leagues this weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaz13 Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 I have the philosophy of starting my best players. I rarely look at matchups unless I have someone hurt and I need a replacement and two players are close in scoring. I try to treat my team like a real team. I have my starters and if someone underperforms I bench them and the replacement becomes the starter, not just for a week either. I don't bench a guy for one bad week, maybe after 3 or 4. I know a few people in my league that are of a matchup philosophy and their teams are usually inconsistent and not that good. In the 14 years of my league I have the most wins and most championships. I always have a consistent team. Studs will perform no matter what team they are playing, that's why they are studs. For example last week looked like a terrible matchup for Tomlinson playing Denver's great defense in Denver. He only scored 4 TD's. You see this every week where players are projected to struggle against a bad matchup but have great games. And vice versa. A marginal player will have a great matchup yet put up underwhelming stats, that's because they are a marginal player. Always start your best players. You are the coach so pick a starting lineup and stick w/ it. If a bench player outperforms a starter over a several week span make a change and stick w/ it. Trying to pick matchups every week leads to inconsistency and frustration. Fantasy sites sell you on their info and picking what players to play. Start your best guys and don't worry about the matchup. If you lose, do it w/ your best players starting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paytonsghost Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 (edited) Great- fantasy season winding down, playoffs right around the corner and I can't seem to make the right decision to save my life. For instance- I started SJAX,C.Taylor and R.Brown last week and had D.Williams and M.Bell on the bench.. (Mcnabb started also) of course I lose.. and now Week 12 is our last week of our regular season and I am tied for first - if I win this week I win - the stress is mounting-is this stuff just blind luck or what are some easy steps to picking the right people to start.. I absolutely need to pull out a win this week.. IMO Too much information on the internet including message board opinions and projections made me over analyze every player i had, i stopped listening to others O's still taking some info into account but mainly decided on my own analysis and have been on a hot streak since. Edited November 23, 2006 by paytonsghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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