The Fantasy reality of Michael Vick (must read)

[FishFreak]

Before you get too carried away with your man-crush, let's not forget that this is his 1st year performing like this. In past years, his performance certainly didn't justify his ADP.

 

In 2005, he was the 12th best QB in our 12 team redraft basic performance scoring league that enhances his value and 10th best in the more intensive 14 team dynasty league that has significantly more standards of measure for performance. That makes him at the very best a marginal starter in either league last year. His ADP was the 8th QB drafted, so he didn't outperform his ADP in either league.

 

In 2004 he was the 13th best QB in the redraft & the 18th best QB in the dynasty league, which makes him a #2 QB in both leagues. His ADP was the 4th QB drafted, so he performed well below value.

 

The year before that he missed significant time due to injury.

 

That he is performing better this year as a FF QB is commendable, but the jury is definitely still out on him. His track record, even as a FF QB, is hardly established as his being a bonafide stud, and as I said previously, in a league that has more substantial measures of FF QBs, he hasn't even approached that this year. His ADP this year was the 13th QB drafted, so this is the first time in his career that he actually presents value at QB.

 

 

I never mentioned anything about past years so all that impressive research is irrelevant to this discussion. If you want to make a fair comparison, Brees is completely blowing up this year and everyone is giving him universal love in fantasy. Vick continues to put up solid fantasy numbers this season and receives little respect. As far as league scoring goes, almost every player is affected in a positive or negative way according to each leagues rules. Overall, Vick is kicking a$$ in most scoring systems.

 

*edited to add ADP information

 

[Grits and Shins]

The reason I started this thread is to mainly give Vick props in fantasy. I tired of the bashing he takes every minute on the message board. Is he a good or bad QB? That depends who you ask. Like every QB in this league, they need to have the right coaches, a good system and the weapons needed to be successful. Just look at David Carr. He has good stats but sucks and hasn't done squat for the Texans as their no. 1 pick. In fact only about a 1/3 of the QB's in this league are worth a damn. What bothers me about Vick is how little respect he gets in the fantasy world. He's rarely mentioned as a stud qb when in fact he produces points like one. Because he's a mediocre passer most owners shy away from him. Psycologically, most guys would just rather start more "pure-type" passers like Brady, Bulger, Favre, Rivers, E. Manning, Delhomme, etc. It reality, he's blowing those guys away in fantasy points (in most leagues). Only the cream of the crop (Manning, Palmer, McNabb and Brees (this year) are better starts.

 

 

Now you sound like poor wittle Vick's Mommy

 

League 1: Vick is number 1 overall QB, drafted in the 10th round of a redrafter, dropped week 7 and immediately reacquired in week 8 by what looks to be the eventual SB winning team (I tried like hell to get him first).

 

League 2: Vick is number 1 overall QB, drafted in the 7th round of an optional 2 player keeper league.

 

League 3: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, drafted in the 6th round of a mandatory 3 player keeper league.

 

League 4: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, drafted in the 8th round of a redrafter.

 

League 5: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, drafted in the 5th round of a redrafter.

 

League 6: Vick is the number 2 overall QB, dynasty salary cap league. Cut before the season and purchased for 4.5% of cap

 

League 7: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, dynasty salary cap league. Cut before the season and purchased for 3.5% of cap and given a 1 year contract (can assign up to 5 years).

 

Vick was not very highly valued in any of my leagues prior to the season because he was inconsistent as a fantasy scorer (just like in the NFL).

 

Clearly though THIS season he has been a nice value for those that acquired his services. Not spectacular and certainly not terrible. I believe most of us here would have acknowledged his value as a fantasy starter THIS year without the benefit of your "feel good" post.

 

The real question is how to value him for NEXT year.

[FishFreak]

Now you sound like poor wittle Vick's Mommy

 

League 1: Vick is number 1 overall QB, drafted in the 10th round of a redrafter, dropped week 7 and immediately reacquired in week 8 by what looks to be the eventual SB winning team (I tried like hell to get him first).

 

League 2: Vick is number 1 overall QB, drafted in the 7th round of an optional 2 player keeper league.

 

League 3: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, drafted in the 6th round of a mandatory 3 player keeper league.

 

League 4: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, drafted in the 8th round of a redrafter.

 

League 5: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, drafted in the 5th round of a redrafter.

 

League 6: Vick is the number 2 overall QB, dynasty salary cap league. Cut before the season and purchased for 4.5% of cap

 

League 7: Vick is the number 4 overall QB, dynasty salary cap league. Cut before the season and purchased for 3.5% of cap and given a 1 year contract (can assign up to 5 years).

 

Vick was not very highly valued in any of my leagues prior to the season because he was inconsistent as a fantasy scorer (just like in the NFL).

 

Clearly though THIS season he has been a nice value for those that acquired his services. Not spectacular and certainly not terrible. I believe most of us here would have acknowledged his value as a fantasy starter THIS year without the benefit of your "feel good" post.

 

The real question is how to value him for NEXT year.

 

 

The other questions are:

 

1) Why are you in so many leagues?

2) At what point do you just root for everyone? Seems repetitive to me.

3) Are you as "lovable" in all those leagues as you are on these message boards?

[Grits and Shins]

The other questions are:

 

1) Why are you in so many leagues?

2) At what point do you just root for everyone? Seems repetitive to me.

3) Are you as "lovable" in all those leagues as you are on these message boards?

 

1) Why not?

2) I set my lineups, watch football and see where the chips fall

3) I'm an asshole in real life too

Edited November 29, 2006 by Grits and Shins

[Bronco Billy]

The other questions are:

 

1) Why are you in so many leagues?

2) At what point do you just root for everyone? Seems repetitive to me.

3) Are you as "lovable" in all those leagues as you are on these message boards?

 

 

1) Why not?

2) I set my lineups, watch football and see where the chips fall

3) I'm an asshole in real life too

 

[HowboutthemCowboys]

1) Why not?

2) I set my lineups, watch football and see where the chips fall

3) I'm an chalupa in real life too

 

[FishFreak]

1) Why not?

2) I set my lineups, watch football and see where the chips fall

3) I'm an chalupa in real life too

 

 

At least you know who you are. Vick is still trying to figure out if he's a RB or QB. Grits I'm going to enjoy disagreeing on various topics with you in the future. You won round 1 on Culpepper. I'm sure there will be many more rounds down the road.

[Snoil]

The article is spot on as far as it goes, and I like watching Vick play, even if his passing stinks. But it's a classic case of building a straw man to tear down. Most fantasy leaguers with any experience know their own scoring system, and most of them reward rushing yards at double the rate of passing yeards. Which means from a fantasy perspective I don't encounter anyone who thinks he stinks in FFL's. There just are not legions of Vick-dissers from a fantasy perspective. Obviously, there are a lot of folks who pan his NFL effectiveness and while I am not one of the pack, they've got a good case. His passing game needs a quantum leap in quality. But as for the need to convert people about his fantasy effectiveness? I don't know anyone who needs conversion personally which renders the article moot. He was drafted fairly early but at good value in the leagues I am in. And every year, here at the Huddle and elsewhere, there are articles telling people that's exactly where to get QB's from because they are great value very often. M Vick, case in point. He doesn't get Manning attention but won't cost you near as much to get. As another for-instance, take the example of leagues with thresholds (like 200 yards passing before you get any yardage points at all) Kitna is the only QB with 200+ every game, another value QB taken after the big names went by. That mean you gotta write a Kitna article too? Vick is just proving conventional FFL wisdom this year. He's a value guy. Probably will be next year too, the kinda guy you can get after getting your starting RB's in a full draft, and then you will have 3 stud RB's, but 1 gets plugged in at QB position if Vick is yours.

 

But he did get 1500 words published and probably met his deadline and got paid which is, I am sure, the writer's real goal.

Edited November 29, 2006 by Snoil

[joethin]

He is a great Fantasy QB and you have to love how he compensates with rushing stats for his lack of passing stats.

 

But... doesn't Schaub have the same receiving corps:

 

2005:

 

10/09 NE L 28-31 Att-34 Comp. 18 PYD-298 TD-3 QB Rating-112.1

 

It's only one game but still... it makes you wonder.

 

I would love to see another QB with those WRs for a full season.

 

I don't care about how exciting he is, about how the team wins when he is there, etc, etc, bla, bla, bla.

I just want to see somebody else throwing the pigskin to those same guys and see what happens.

[Big Score 1]

Vick was not very highly valued in any of my leagues prior to the season because he was inconsistent as a fantasy scorer (just like in the NFL).

For whatever reason, it is a common perception that Vick has been an inconsistent fantasy scorer. However, the facts simply do not support this.

 

For compassions sake we can look at last year and stack Vick up against QB's who are generally considered safe, consistent fantasy scorers.

 

Vick scored under 10 points... three times... & over 19 points... eight times.

 

Trent Green scored under 10 points... three times... & over 19 points... seven times.

 

Matt Hasselbeck scored under 10 points... two times... & over 19... six times.

 

Peyton Manning, the poster child for QB consistency.

Peyton scored under 10 points... three times... & over 19 points... nine times.

 

Even more telling than just last year, since his first full year starting, Vick has scored more than 15 points per game, in a standard scoring league, 62% of the time. That is consistent FF scoring from the QB position.

[Big Score 1]

Before you get too carried away with your man-crush, let's not forget that this is his 1st year performing like this. In past years, his performance certainly didn't justify his ADP.

 

In 2005, he was the 12th best QB in our 12 team redraft basic performance scoring league that enhances his value and 10th best in the more intensive 14 team dynasty league that has significantly more standards of measure for performance. That makes him at the very best a marginal starter in either league last year. His ADP was the 8th QB drafted, so he didn't outperform his ADP in either league.

 

In 2004 he was the 13th best QB in the redraft & the 18th best QB in the dynasty league, which makes him a #2 QB in both leagues. His ADP was the 4th QB drafted, so he performed well below value.

 

The year before that he missed significant time due to injury.

What happened to 2002 BB?

 

I know under a standard league scoring format, he was the #3 point scoring QB.

[Bronco Billy]

I'll put the odds of Vick not being a value in FF next season at 2:1.

 

After this year, someone will pick him up early in the draft, and his performance will regress to the norm, making him what he has been every year up to this year: overvalued and underperforming.

[Grits and Shins]

For whatever reason, it is a common perception that Vick has been an inconsistent fantasy scorer. However, the facts simply do not support this.

 

For compassions sake we can look at last year and stack Vick up against QB's who are generally considered safe, consistent fantasy scorers.

 

Vick scored under 10 points... three times... & over 19 points... eight times.

 

Trent Green scored under 10 points... three times... & over 19 points... seven times.

 

Matt Hasselbeck scored under 10 points... two times... & over 19... six times.

 

Peyton Manning, the poster child for QB consistency.

Peyton scored under 10 points... three times... & over 19 points... nine times.

 

Even more telling than just last year, since his first full year starting, Vick has scored more than 15 points per game, in a standard scoring league, 62% of the time. That is consistent FF scoring from the QB position.

 

 

2005:

18.04

13.22

20.08

11.76

DNP

12.58

15.44

OFF

16.92

25.76

21.94

18.54

8.44

28.04

6.38

20.74

3.6

 

2004:

10.52

22.06

10.40

9.42

9.74

25.22

8.96

29.58

OFF

16.18

23.00

28.38

10.70

8.90

24.96

0

6.7

 

2003:

DNP

 

2002:

24

14

18

OFF

1

0

24

28

5

25

23

18

38

9

19

23

15

 

As you can he has streaks and runs but is not consistent ... the last 5 weeks of last year were horrible.

[Big Score 1]

I'll put the odds of Vick not being a value in FF next season at 2:1.

 

After this year, someone will pick him up early in the draft, and his performance will regress to the norm, making him what he has been every year up to this year: overvalued and underperforming.

 

Not sure how accurate that statement is BB.

 

Out of Vick's 4 full seasons starting, it looks like under standard league scoring (assuming he continues this years current pace, which, barring injury, is not unreasonable). Vick will have ranked in the Top 5 as a fantasy QB, twice.

 

Two out of four seasons, as a Top 5 ranking fantasy QB, ain't all bad.

[FishFreak]

He is a great Fantasy QB and you have to love how he compensates with rushing stats for his lack of passing stats.

 

But... doesn't Schaub have the same receiving corps:

 

2005:

 

10/09 NE L 28-31 Att-34 Comp. 18 PYD-298 TD-3 QB Rating-112.1

 

It's only one game but still... it makes you wonder.

 

I would love to see another QB with those WRs for a full season.

 

I don't care about how exciting he is, about how the team wins when he is there, etc, etc, bla, bla, bla.

I just want to see somebody else throwing the pigskin to those same guys and see what happens.

 

 

I often wonder the same thing. Sure the Falcons Receivers are lacking but some of that has to be due to Vick. Receivers want to catch the ball and most hate blocking. The problem is, Vick runs on about 1/4 of all the passing plays called so the WR's get frustrated. With Schaub at the helm, the WR's KNOW they will be thrown to and I bet would run crisper routes and start catching the ball more. Part of what makes a QB great is how he makes the whole offense better. Confidence and moral are low right now in Atlanta and everyone is pointing fingers. It's up to Vick to turn things around and lead the team in a professional manner although I know he's frustrated by the lack of help. Personally, I don't think they are running the right system to suit Vick's needs and don't have the right pieces to be sucessful on offense consistently. R. White and M. Jenkins are clearly not 1st round caliber talent.

[Big Score 1]

2005:

18.04

13.22

20.08

11.76

DNP

12.58

15.44

OFF

16.92

25.76

21.94

18.54

8.44

28.04

6.38

20.74

3.6

 

2004:

10.52

22.06

10.40

9.42

9.74

25.22

8.96

29.58

OFF

16.18

23.00

28.38

10.70

8.90

24.96

0

6.7

 

2003:

DNP

 

2002:

24

14

18

OFF

1

0

24

28

5

25

23

18

38

9

19

23

15

 

As you can he has streaks and runs but is not consistent ... the last 5 weeks of last year were horrible.

 

As shown to you in the post you quoted, Vick was no more inconsistent than Trent Green, Matt Hasselbeck or Peyton Manning last year.

 

Bad fantasy scores occur for all QB's Blitz, even the "safe consistent" ones.

 

Now if you want to say QB's like Boller, Pennington, Big Ben, Losman, Carr, Leftwich, Captain Cocktail etc...etc...etc... are inconsistent, I'm with you. But when you've got a QB who only dips below 10 points three times all year & scores over 19 points 8 other times, & for the QB's overall performance, has a career 62% record of scoring over 15 points, that's not inconsistent fantasy scoring from the QB position.

 

The facts don't lie, but if you want to continue thinking he's inconsistent, despite the numbers telling you otherwise, no skin off my nose.

Edited November 30, 2006 by Big Score 1

[Vet]

When Vick threw those 7 TDs in 2 weeks earlier this year, I was starting to think that his great grandmother must have slept with a white man. But now I'm thinking that it was just a fluke.

[Grits and Shins]

When Vick threw those 7 TDs in 2 weeks earlier this year, I was starting to think that his great grandmother must have slept with a white man. But now I'm thinking that it was just a fluke.

 

 

The fact that he is an awesome athlete with no ability to think lends credibility to the fact that there is no white ancestors in his lineage.

 

 

 

[rai]

Great Article. That is what people cant comprehend. VIck is one of the best fantasy players this year. He has a bad game and scores 18 fantasy points. Romo has a bad game and he gets 7 points. I will take Vick as my fantasy QB any day over just about anyone. FANTASY wise he is that good.

 

good point except it's not true.

 

Romos worst day he had 226 pass yards no TDs

Vics worst day this year he had 137 pass and 57 rush yards no TDs.

 

In my league we get 1 for 20 pass and 1 for 20 rush so those 2 days are the same.

 

 

In my league last 6 weeks Vick has scored 133 points and Romo 155 points

 

Vick is top 12th for the year (my system) behind people like Kitna and Eli.

 

If the TDs are not there its not worth it (my system).

 

In my league, Romo has the single highest score of any player this year with 300+ pass yards and 5 TDs last week 45 points, Vicks best game with 4 TDs he got only 37 points.

Edited December 1, 2006 by rai