Is Grossman really THAT BAD?

[brosho]

If ever there was a bandwagon, its the over exagerated inconsistant play of Grossman ( as compared to other inconsistant QBs in the league). I'm not sticking up for him as much as I'm pointing out that there are other QBs with equal or worse stats/points that are recommended starters each week. Below are two sets of points in my cbs league thru wk 13.

(5pts for 200yds, 1pt for every 25pts after,6pts for TD,-1 for INT)

 

16 36 12 22 12 -6 25 7 23 10 -4 total 153

 

-2 0 11 12 6 29 17 -2 17 9 4 total 101

 

without knowing the names that match these scores, who would you rather start?

 

The guy on top is Grossman, the guy on the bottom is projected in the top 10 each week by just about every fantasy website - even this week.

 

Delhomme! Compare the last 5 games of Delhomme and the others below:

 

Rivers: 11 7 32 19 -1

Bulger: 22 16 4 -1 10

Vick: 31 9 8 11 9

McNair: 18 6 31 5 6

Leinart: 5 0 9 18 17

Carr: -3 6 5 9 16

Garrard: 5 18 6 11 12

Kitna: 0 18 9 5 11

 

You could do worse than Grossman. Take out the 3 lowest scores and he looks pretty good. (that's over %75 of the time)

Don't get me wrong, when he's bad he looks BAD, but how many QB's look great losing? The QBs listed above have the same or more bad games as Grossman but don't get anywhere near the bad press.

[Gros Membres!]

If ever there was a bandwagon, its the over exagerated inconsistant play of Grossman ( as compared to other inconsistant QBs in the league). I'm not sticking up for him as much as I'm pointing out that there are other QBs with equal or worse stats/points that are recommended starters each week. Below are two sets of points in my cbs league thru wk 13.

(5pts for 200yds, 1pt for every 25pts after,6pts for TD,-1 for INT)

 

16 36 12 22 12 -6 25 7 23 10 -4 total 153

 

-2 0 11 12 6 29 17 -2 17 9 4 total 101

 

without knowing the names that match these scores, who would you rather start?

 

The guy on top is Grossman, the guy on the bottom is projected in the top 10 each week by just about every fantasy website - even this week.

 

Delhomme! Compare the last 5 games of Delhomme and the others below:

 

Rivers: 11 7 32 19 -1

Bulger: 22 16 4 -1 10

Vick: 31 9 8 11 9

McNair: 18 6 31 5 6

Leinart: 5 0 9 18 17

Carr: -3 6 5 9 16

Garrard: 5 18 6 11 12

Kitna: 0 18 9 5 11

 

You could do worse than Grossman. Take out the 3 lowest scores and he looks pretty good. (that's over %75 of the time)

Don't get me wrong, when he's bad he looks BAD, but how many QB's look great losing? The QBs listed above have the same or more bad games as Grossman but don't get anywhere near the bad press.

 

Great stuff. Thanks, brosho.

[alexgaddis]

I think the criticism Rex gets isn't from a fantasy perspective but from an NFL perspective...

[crispirons]

pure and simple, the guy HAS to cut down on his turnovers. fantasy and real football. he can kill a week as well as win a week for you. but all that being said, not the greatest or the most consistent yr for qbs. pretty poor to average if you ask me. (overall generalization)

[Bronco Billy]

People forget that Grossman has not had much field experience. He was hurt very early on in the past 2 years, so his accumulated field experience amounts to a grand total of 19 games and roughly 550 pass attempts - approximately one 16 game season's worth.

 

That said, he does make some significant mistakes at times. I have wondered more than a few times if CHI wouldn't be better served by playing Griese - whose game fits well in a conservative game plan and who has a ton more experience - when a team like CHI is the NFC favorite to go to the Super Bowl. You'd hate to see a team of this caliber be subjected to an early exit in the playoffs by mistakes due to inexperienced QB play.

 

That said, CHI has every perrogative to get whichever QB it wants the snaps this year, and if they have decided that getting Grossman more game experience for the long run at the risk of being potentially weaker in the playoffs this season, while that's an awfully tough trade off to make in my opinion, that's their choice.

Edited November 29, 2006 by Bronco Billy

[junebugz]

That said, CHI has every perrogative to get whichever QB it wants the snaps this year, and if they have decided that getting Grossman more game experience for the long run at the risk of being potentially weaker in the playoffs this season, while that's an awfully tough trade off to make in my opinion, that's their choice.

 

I think that would be a tougher choice in the AFC than in the NFC. If the teams remains unchanged for the most part they are virtually guarenteed a playoff trip next year in the NFC North ... barring any very unusual unexpected turn of events that is. As long as the running game and D play at good levels, they have a chance of winning the trophy IMO. If Griese is not going to be your future QB and supposedly Rex is, then why not give Rex the post-season experience since it looks like the team will be headed there for the next few years.

[Bronco Billy]

I think that would be a tougher choice in the AFC than in the NFC. If the teams remains unchanged for the most part they are virtually guarenteed a playoff trip next year in the NFC North ... barring any very unusual unexpected turn of events that is. As long as the running game and D play at good levels, they have a chance of winning the trophy IMO. If Griese is not going to be your future QB and supposedly Rex is, then why not give Rex the post-season experience since it looks like the team will be headed there for the next few years.

 

 

I understand that stance and am very sympathetic with it. However (there's always a however, isn't there?) I am also a firm believer that teams in the salary cap era of the NFL have 3 year windows to work their legitimate Super Bowl capability once they reach it. After 3 years of being on top, overvalued FAs from being on championship caliber teams start to get snatched by other teams in numbers too great to overcome with a team's own incoming FAs and draft choices.

 

CHI appears to be in their first year right now. The clock is running, and it would be a damn shame to see them piss away a great opportunity just to make sure they don't hurt Grossman's feelings. Again - that's only conjecture on my part, and I don't own or coach the team. I see your point also and consider it valid.

[Azazello1313]

Is that Berrian? I think he's triple-covered. You know what? yump it. I'm throwing it downfield.

[whitem0nkey]

3 year windows

 

I agree with the 3 year thing. If rex has a bad game this week. like o TDs 2 INTs, i would like the bears to give brian griese a shot at the starting job and see what he does in a full game. they need to find out who gives them the best shot at wining the SB.

 

if this works or not it still give the bears week 15-17 to make a choice on sticking with brian griese and allow him to build some chemistry with the current WRs, or go back with rex and go to battle.

[Bill Swerski]

If Griese is not going to be your future QB and supposedly Rex is, then why not give Rex the post-season experience since it looks like the team will be headed there for the next few years.

 

 

Because the Bears have, by far, the best defense in the league, a solid running game, and the only thing that'll keep them from winning the NFC at this point is Grossman's bad decision-making. The Bears aren't developing Grossman for a shot at the SB two years down the road. This is Rex's fourth year in the league and the Bears are trying to win NOW.

 

Grossman turned the ball over four times in the losses to NE and MIA. It's nothing short of a miracle that they beat ARI when he turned the ball over SIX times. And his late 4th quarter INT against MIN almost cost them that game as well. His gunslinger mentality and bad decision-making are a liability. If Kyle Orton or some rookie were the only other option, I'd agree with the "stay the course" argument. But they have a legitimate starter in Griese sitting on the bench right now. Griese won't set the world on fire, but he's had moderate success in the NFL and he won't turn the ball over 4-6 times a game.

Edited November 29, 2006 by Bill Swerski

[Tford]

Below are two sets of points in my cbs league thru wk 13.

(5pts for 200yds, 1pt for every 25pts after,6pts for TD,-1 for INT)

 

16 36 12 22 12 -6 25 7 23 10 -4 total 153

 

-2 0 11 12 6 29 17 -2 17 9 4 total 101

 

without knowing the names that match these scores, who would you rather start?

 

The guy on top is Grossman, the guy on the bottom is projected in the top 10 each week by just about every fantasy website - even this week.

 

Delhomme!

 

 

Not every league scores QB that way though. Have a look at my league.

 

-3 per INT , -3 per fumble , +1/10yds rush , +1/25yds pass , 6/TD , 7/TD 40+

 

Grossman:

14 36 11 21 19 -13 28 2 24 11 -5 total = 138

 

Delhomme:

1 7 11 18 12 22 18 -1 18 11 6 total = 123

 

 

Over the last six games, the comparison gets worse.

 

Grossman: 7.8 FPPG over his last six games

 

Delhomme: 12.3 FPPG over his last six games

 

 

Maybe the argument that Grossman's inconsistency is overhyped might fly in leagues where turnover penalties are light, but in many leagues, Grossman's tendency to throw for 300+ and 3-4 scores one night and turnover the ball 4 times the next makes him the ultimate feast-or-famine QB in my league. He may be ranked 10th in QB FP points in my league compared to Delhomme's 16th over the whole year, but the fact that Grossman is ranked 30th (tied with Brunell!) over the last 7 weeks compared to Delhomme's 17th shows you where I think Grossman is headed.

[johnnyfb]

If Drew Brees and Rex Grossman switched places, Brees would be a clear-cut MVP on an 11-0 team while Grossman would be leading a 4-7 New Orleans team to mediocrity. With the talent around him and a solid defense/special teams behind him, Grossman should be doing much more from an NFL and fantasy perspective.

 

Just watching Grossman play shows you how shaky he is. I've been playing my new live play-predicting game on my cell phone on Sundays, and watching Grossman literally looks painful.

[brosho]

Not every league scores QB that way though. Have a look at my league.

 

-3 per INT , -3 per fumble , +1/10yds rush , +1/25yds pass , 6/TD , 7/TD 40+

 

Grossman:

14 36 11 21 19 -13 28 2 24 11 -5 total = 138

 

Delhomme:

1 7 11 18 12 22 18 -1 18 11 6 total = 123

Over the last six games, the comparison gets worse.

 

Grossman: 7.8 FPPG over his last six games

 

Delhomme: 12.3 FPPG over his last six games

Maybe the argument that Grossman's inconsistency is overhyped might fly in leagues where turnover penalties are light, but in many leagues, Grossman's tendency to throw for 300+ and 3-4 scores one night and turnover the ball 4 times the next makes him the ultimate feast-or-famine QB in my league. He may be ranked 10th in QB FP points in my league compared to Delhomme's 16th over the whole year, but the fact that Grossman is ranked 30th (tied with Brunell!) over the last 7 weeks compared to Delhomme's 17th shows you where I think Grossman is headed.

 

Those are some pretty hefty penalties, 2 INTs negate a TD......guess Favres not a hot prospect in your league. But lets be realistic, Your including a "-13" in your average. That's 1 game, but when you include it with the last 7 its gonna really drop the average. I agree, he makes some bad decisions and I don't have a ton of faith in him either, but if I would have started him the first half of the season instead of Jake DaBumm, I'd be in first instead of fighting for a wildcard. Jake's only gone over 200 yds twice this year and has only 12 passing TDs - LESS THAN VICK!

[Bill Swerski]

If Drew Brees and Rex Grossman switched places, Brees would be a clear-cut MVP on an 11-0 team while Grossman would be leading a 4-7 New Orleans team to mediocrity. With the talent around him and a solid defense/special teams behind him, Grossman should be doing much more from an NFL and fantasy perspective.

 

Just watching Grossman play shows you how shaky he is. I've been playing my new live play-predicting game on my cell phone on Sundays, and watching Grossman literally looks painful.

 

 

[whitem0nkey]

If Drew Brees and Rex Grossman switched places, Brees would be a clear-cut MVP on an 11-0 team while Grossman would be leading a 4-7 New Orleans team to mediocrity. With the talent around him and a solid defense/special teams behind him, Grossman should be doing much more from an NFL and fantasy perspective.

 

Just watching Grossman play shows you how shaky he is. I've been playing my new live play-predicting game on my cell phone on Sundays, and watching Grossman literally looks painful.

 

 

yes brees is better than rex, but if brees would be on the bears with his $10 mil a year salary the bears would not be able to afford that same team they currently have so i dont know if the bears would be undefeated with brees cause you have to factor the rest or the bears team and the salaries.

[Bill Swerski]

yes brees is better than rex, but if brees would be on the bears with his $10 mil a year salary the bears would not be able to afford that same team they currently have so i dont know if the bears would be undefeated with brees cause you have to factor the rest or the bears team and the salaries.

 

 

Take away Cedric Benson and Mike Brown and I'll bet that they're close.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

People forget that Grossman has not had much field experience. He was hurt very early on in the past 2 years, so his accumulated field experience amounts to a grand total of 19 games and roughly 550 pass attempts - approximately one 16 game season's worth.

 

That said, he does make some significant mistakes at times. I have wondered more than a few times if CHI wouldn't be better served by playing Griese - whose game fits well in a conservative game plan and who has a ton more experience - when a team like CHI is the NFC favorite to go to the Super Bowl. You'd hate to see a team of this caliber be subjected to an early exit in the playoffs by mistakes due to inexperienced QB play.

That said, CHI has every perrogative to get whichever QB it wants the snaps this year, and if they have decided that getting Grossman more game experience for the long run at the risk of being potentially weaker in the playoffs this season, while that's an awfully tough trade off to make in my opinion, that's their choice.

 

 

Speak for yourself.

[FishFreak]

He's not as good as he was in the first few games of the season or as bad as the last few games. I know this, he's not a SB caliber QB. IF the Bears get that far it will be because of their D or running game. Rex will not play well against the stiff competition he'll face if the Bears go deep in the playoffs. Luckily, for the Bears only Dallas looks better right now.

[whitem0nkey]

now im not saying that rex will be favre or manning but.

 

For his first 18 starts, Grossman has a higher passer rating and better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Peyton Manning did for his first 18. And for the 11 starts in his first full year as the starter, Grossman's numbers compare favorably to Brett Favre's for the same span. Grossman has matched Favre with 18 TD passes and has thrown just one more interception with 14.

from chicagosports.com

[Bill Swerski]

now im not saying that rex will be favre or manning but.

 

For his first 18 starts, Grossman has a higher passer rating and better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Peyton Manning did for his first 18. And for the 11 starts in his first full year as the starter, Grossman's numbers compare favorably to Brett Favre's for the same span. Grossman has matched Favre with 18 TD passes and has thrown just one more interception with 14.

from chicagosports.com

 

 

Of course, that completely fails to take into account that Grossman's stats are drawn out into his FOURTH year in the league and that his decision-making seems to have gotten worse, not better.

 

No starting QB in his fourth year in the league should be making as many mental mistakes as Rex has this season.

[dmarc117]

If Drew Brees and Rex Grossman switched places, Brees would be a clear-cut MVP on an 11-0 team while Grossman would be leading a 4-7 New Orleans team to mediocrity. With the talent around him and a solid defense/special teams behind him, Grossman should be doing much more from an NFL and fantasy perspective.

 

Just watching Grossman play shows you how shaky he is. I've been playing my new live play-predicting game on my cell phone on Sundays, and watching Grossman literally looks painful.

 

 

 

what huge talent? who does rex have supporting him? granted the bears d is solid but his wr's and rb's are pretty much the same as the saints......no?

 

henderson, colston, horn, duece, and bush

 

vs

 

berrian, bradley, muhammed, jones, and benson

 

 

looks pretty much the same to me.....

[CD6405]

If ever there was a bandwagon, its the over exagerated inconsistant play of Grossman ( as compared to other inconsistant QBs in the league). I'm not sticking up for him as much as I'm pointing out that there are other QBs with equal or worse stats/points that are recommended starters each week. Below are two sets of points in my cbs league thru wk 13.

(5pts for 200yds, 1pt for every 25pts after,6pts for TD,-1 for INT)

 

16 36 12 22 12 -6 25 7 23 10 -4 total 153

 

-2 0 11 12 6 29 17 -2 17 9 4 total 101

 

without knowing the names that match these scores, who would you rather start?

 

The guy on top is Grossman, the guy on the bottom is projected in the top 10 each week by just about every fantasy website - even this week.

 

Delhomme! Compare the last 5 games of Delhomme and the others below:

 

Rivers: 11 7 32 19 -1

Bulger: 22 16 4 -1 10

Vick: 31 9 8 11 9

McNair: 18 6 31 5 6

Leinart: 5 0 9 18 17

Carr: -3 6 5 9 16

Garrard: 5 18 6 11 12

Kitna: 0 18 9 5 11

 

You could do worse than Grossman. Take out the 3 lowest scores and he looks pretty good. (that's over %75 of the time)

Don't get me wrong, when he's bad he looks BAD, but how many QB's look great losing? The QBs listed above have the same or more bad games as Grossman but don't get anywhere near the bad press.

 

 

 

But Delhomme is horrible...Steve Smith makes Delhomme look good, that's it...but anyways.

 

Rivers is a better all around QB and is in about the same situation as Grossman. 3rd year or so, on a good team with a good defense. That's the only person you can compare him to I believe, none of the others. I don't know how many people here would choose Grossman over Rivers, but I wouldn't.Plus the take out the 3 lowest scores and he's good is a bad way to look at it.

 

That is like saying take out 3 of JP Losman's bad games and he has 9 TDs and 3 INTs. He's still a horrible QB, albeit he is improving and is really young, and seemingly retarded.

 

Why Delhomme is still in the top 10 QBs, beats me. He was never a top ten QB, atleast not without a Steve Smith or a "moose" in his prime.

 

I still stick with what I say, Rex Grossman was a product of Steve Spurrier's system, like all of the other Florida QBs.

Edited November 30, 2006 by CD6405

[Wolv]

now im not saying that rex will be favre or manning but.

 

For his first 18 starts, Grossman has a higher passer rating and better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Peyton Manning did for his first 18. And for the 11 starts in his first full year as the starter, Grossman's numbers compare favorably to Brett Favre's for the same span. Grossman has matched Favre with 18 TD passes and has thrown just one more interception with 14.

from chicagosports.com

 

Interesting.

 

But take schedule into account as well. Not sure what the schedule looks like previous to this year when he played, but the Bears' schedule THIS year contains only 3 teams with winning records. Playing patsies pads the stats. Having a great defense to take the pressure off helps as well.

[whitem0nkey]

Of course, that completely fails to take into account that Grossman's stats are drawn out into his FOURTH year in the league and that his decision-making seems to have gotten worse, not better.

 

No starting QB in his fourth year in the league should be making as many mental mistakes as Rex has this season.

 

 

 

I do understand that the way rex is playing now (inconsistent) he may not be the best option to help the bears win a superbowl this year. even if rex had 3 great weeks before the playoffs, i still dont have a comfortable feeling with him starting, the bad rex can show up in the playoffs. so I would like to see brian play a game with the team. and if he shows he can play at a consistent level let him keep on playing.

 

that being said i would like for the bears to resign rex (I think this is his last year??) because he will not cost that much, and i think rex is not as great as his best games and not as bad as his worst games. and ones he settles down that should be enough with this team.

 

also in terms of his decision making being worst and worst, i think part of that is since the Minnesota game, teams saw that you just blitz up the middle and rex will make mistakes. and dont forget in the beginning of the year when rex had those real good games he got lucky a bunch of times. he should have gotten intercepted about 4-6 times but the defenders dropped the INT.

 

another problem he has is he does not plant his feet when he throws a lot of times.

[johnnyfb]

what huge talent? who does rex have supporting him? granted the bears d is solid but his wr's and rb's are pretty much the same as the saints......no?

 

henderson, colston, horn, duece, and bush

 

vs

 

berrian, bradley, muhammed, jones, and benson

 

 

looks pretty much the same to me.....

 

 

I'll take Berrian, Muhammed, Davis, and Bradley all day over Henderson, Colston, and an aging Joe Horn. I think Deuce is a shade better than Jones, and I can't match Bush. But as you said, the defense does make the difference.