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Week 14 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Well we had a couple of threads last week and it seems there may be some guys here who like to wager on the NFL action.

 

As this forum is described as "For fantasy football team owners to share strategies, discuss hot topics, give opinions or just shoot the breeze about the NFL." I think this thread is fine here.

 

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

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I'll start it off w/ some info I posted at another site:

 

If you take ATL -3, you may be trying to buck a 11-2 ATS trend this season

 

 

As most know there is this site that tracks picks of all its players and calls them "consensus picks".

 

Anyhow, the largest road favorite (the team w/ the largest %) in this "consensus" has gone 2-11 ATS so far this year:

 

Week2: STL -3/SF, 13-20, L (Dog won outright)

Week3: BAL -7/CLE, 15-14, L

Week4: Jag -2.5/WAS, 30-36, L (Dog won outright)

Week5: KC -3.5/AZ, 23-20, L

Week6: Cin -4.5/TB, 13-14, L (Dog won outright)

Week7: NE -5.5/BUF, 28-6, W

Week8: NYJ -1/CLE, 13-20, L (Dog won outright)

Week9: ATL -5.5/DET, 14-30, L (Dog won outright)

Week10: BAL -7/Tenn, 27-26, L

Week11: SEA -3/SF, 14-20, L (Dog won outright)

Week12: CIN -3/CLE, 30-0, W

Week13: CAR -3/PHI, 24-27 L (Dog won outright)

 

As of right now, the consensus road fav this week is:

 

ATL -3 with 77% of the people picking ATL -3.

 

So does TB pull it off?

 

Some of the things I look at, ATL has the adv in rushing offense and rushing defense. TB has the advantage in passing offense and passing defense.

 

ATL has the advantage in turnovers, power ranking and Sagarin ranking.

 

Time of possession is nearly equal.

 

TB has the advantage in 3rd down conversions and penalties.

 

 

 

By the way, who knows where this will be by the end of the week. In 2nd place w/ 74% of the consensus is Indy -2.

 

So the potential is there for a play on either Jax +2 or TB +3.

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Just as a heads up, you might reconsider the posting of information that is proprietary and not free to the general public (e.g. Dr Bob's paid analysis). It's one thing to discuss picks but it's highly unethical to mess with another person's means of making an income. Cutting and pasting the exact writeup that he offers for sale isn't exactly on the up and up if you know what I mean. JMHO.

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Just as a heads up, you might reconsider the posting of information that is proprietary and not free to the general public (e.g. Dr Bob's paid analysis). It's one thing to discuss picks but it's highly unethical to mess with another person's means of making an income. Cutting and pasting the exact writeup that he offers for sale isn't exactly on the up and up if you know what I mean. JMHO.

 

 

That is a good suggestion and if the huddle does not want that info posted here I won't post someone else's writeup.

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So the potential is there for a play on either Jax +2 or TB +3.

 

 

 

I like the Tampa Bay game for many of the same reasons you have listed here.

 

I do not like the Indy game though. the way Indy has played I think you are gonna see more big money at the end of the week being dumped on Jville than on Indy and am afraid Vegas knows this. that is 1 of those games I would just stay away from.

 

 

I like Kansas City alot this week as I feel the Ravens are overrated and are in for a rough ending to their season.

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great idea dre. i don't want anyone getting into trouble about the plagerism thing, but there are ways to change things up and still get the message out. just be careful. i cited covers magazine last week but it was only a couple sentences about early money action. i think that is fine. i'll have some info later in the week to dish out. some good tidbits in the gaming today weekly they put out here in vegas. there handicappers though, are some of the worst. i can't believe they get paid to be so crappy at it. i mean, were not talking .500, these guys are doing 38-45 percent. i won't mention there names, but, i think alot of it has to do with who puts out the mag and there connection to the books as to why they do so bad. they try to convince you in there blurbs and have an angle or a slant, but they aren't good ones.

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Pinny is playing games w/ this line & your Mind - Pitt -9 +121

 

Pinny was the only book to open w/ Pitt -9. They did that on Sunday w/ a +108 juice, which quickly jumped 9 minutes later to +126. It stayed around +124 for most of Monday and Tuesday morning.

 

Then Tues afternoon they took the -9 down to -7.5 for -103 juice. It stayed that way into this morning.

 

Now they are showing -9 for +121 juice.

 

All they are doing is screwing around w/ what shows up on the board. You can still buy it down to -7.5 for +101 juice.

 

So are they just playing w/ your mind? Of course. They want people to get into work on Wednesday, thinking the line is still -7.5. I think they are doing this for your "average" bettor who is more concerned w/ the line than the juice. He sees the 1st number on the board: Clev +9, and dives in. Of course, if that wins you are not getting nearly as much back (-129 juice).

 

The value bettor looks at the line and the juice, and says "I may be willing to risk Pitt -9 for +121 juice". (I think 5 Dimes has -9 for +110, so people will go to Pinny if they want the bigger payback)

 

But the smart bettor knows that they really haven't done anything to the line, it is still about the same as when it opened.

 

The one area I think this affects things the most is in a teaser. You can't buy your line in a teaser, you get whatever is on the board, and the juice does not matter.

 

So those who already like Clev at +9 but hate the -129 juice should love them at +15 for +100 juice. Even money, so long as you pick the right side on the under/over.

 

The under/over has been dropping like a brick, and is now down to 34.5. So taking a same game 6 point teaser that pays +100 juice:

 

Clev +15 and Over 28.5

Clev +15 and Under 41.5

 

Which do you like better is the question?

 

If you like Pitt in that teaser, you are probably better off waiting to see if the line comes off of the -9 they have and drops back down to -7.5. Or go to another book.

 

The over 28.5 looks mighty tempting.

 

The Steelers will be without four starters when they play the Cleveland Browns Thursday night at Heinz Field -- both receivers and both safeties.

 

Free safety Ryan Clark (groin) joins All-Pro strong safety Troy Polamalu (MCL sprain) on the sideline against the Browns. Cedrick Wilson (high ankle sprain) joins Super Bowl MVP Hines Ward (knee surgery) as starting wide receivers who will not play Thursday.

 

For the over it looks good in that the Steelers secondary is banged up as they have to start rookie Anthony Smith.

 

On the contrary:

 

For the under it looks good because the Steelers are now starting a rookie WR and a 2nd year WR who only caught one pass as a rookie in the AFC championship game in Denver. The Steelers likely will promote Sean Morey to No. 3 wide receiver and then use either Walter Young, signed from their practice squad Nov. 25, or Lee Mays, signed on Monday, as their No. 4 wide receiver.

 

As for KC's ability to move the ball, they do have a QB making his 1st start in the NFL in Derek Anderson. In his last game coming off the bench, he completed 12 of 21 passes for 171 yards, threw two touchdown passes and led the overtime drive resulting in a field goal by Phil Dawson.

 

As I didn't see the game, I don't know exactly how he looked, but from what I read: Anderson looked composed against the Chiefs. He did not scramble the instant he took the snap as Frye sometimes does. When he threw the ball he threw a rope. He got out of trouble twice with shovel passes.

 

But w/ KC nursing a big lead, they didn't blitz him much. Something you can be SURE Dick LeBeau will be doing all game. The Steelers sacked Frye a total of 13 times in the last two games. They beat the Browns 41-0 on Christmas Eve and 24-20 last month.

 

The last game, Clev was without Ruben Droughns but Jason Wright still rushed for 74 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. They also were decent in the passing game, completing 63% of their passes for 224 yards.

 

However they did not score a single offensive touchdown. They returned 1 int for a TD and 1 kickoff for a TD.

 

It will be tough to improve in Pittsburgh, so that is why I think the total is so low. The Steelers will surely turn to the running game w/ their wideouts hurting, but Willie Parker is a beast at home.

 

I'm sure you will see the stats flashed up during the game: At home he averages 5.0 ypc and has 7 TDs. On the road he averages 2.9 ypc and has 2 TDs.

 

While the Steelers love to pound the ball, I think they love even more catching the other team off guard. Clev will be banking on the Steelers to run the ball, and they will probably match up man to man on the WRs, knowing these WRs have no experience. Wiz knows how to get his WRs open if play action is successful, and Ben will still be looking for them and Heath Miller.

 

The good news for Clev is that since Derek Anderson hangs in the pocket more than Frye, he will be able to have that extra second to try to find a receiver downfield. Clev does have a decent receiving corps and is playing against Pitt's beat up secondary. I'm sure Romeo Crennel will not want to throw Anderson to the dogs and have him drop back for some deep passes if Pittsburgh is successful w/ their blitzing. But if he can find Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicious on short routes, they will have a big advantage against Pittsburgh's secondary.

 

Don't forget how good Clev is in special teams, although they only have 1 TD (which was against the Steelers), they still rank #2 overall in punt/kickoff return yardage.

 

So I'd be willing to guess Clev +15 at +100 juice is a great Value Play, if you can determine which side of the Over/Under to bet.

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It's not plagerism if he doesn't say he wrote it. Dre probably should have cited it better. (and links are nice!) Academics and Journalists quote other sources all the time, why would this be different and considered illegal? I'm no lawyer.

 

 

He didn't credit the source, so it is plagiarism. Actually, I don't give a rat's ass what people post here, just pointing it out. FWIW, I majored in journalism, so I do tend to point-out things like this. Yeah, I know it's stupid, but So interesting yet confusing!, everyone's got their pet peeves/hang-ups.

 

Plagiarize away....

Edited by The Next Generation
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He didn't credit the source, so it is plagiarism. Actually, I don't give a rat's ass what people post here, just pointing it out. FWIW, I majored in journalism, so I do tend to point-out things like this. Yeah, I know it's stupid, but So interesting yet confusing!, everyone's got their pet peeves/hang-ups.

 

Plagiarize away....

 

 

I wasn't even going to address this, but did you read the thread I posted Dr. Bob's picks in?

 

Why don't you try giving it a read before you lie to the board:

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&s...dpost&p=1825749

 

Please tell me where I claimed the writeup to be my own and took credit for them.

 

Let's keep talking about things that actually mean something in terms of making money, such as the games this week, as opposed to last weeks games or posts.

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I wasn't even going to address this, but did you read the thread I posted Dr. Bob's picks in?

 

Why don't you try giving it a read before you lie to the board:

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&s...dpost&p=1825749

 

Please tell me where I claimed the writeup to be my own and took credit for them.

 

Let's keep talking about things that actually mean something in terms of making money, such as the games this week, as opposed to last weeks games or posts.

 

 

Agreed, and I was posting on the info that was posted previously in this thread which insinuated that what you posted here was "proprietary" and not credited. If it wasn't, sorry my bad.

 

Carry on, degenerates! :D

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I wasn't even going to address this, but did you read the thread I posted Dr. Bob's picks in?

 

Why don't you try giving it a read before you lie to the board:

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&s...dpost&p=1825749

 

Please tell me where I claimed the writeup to be my own and took credit for them.

 

Let's keep talking about things that actually mean something in terms of making money, such as the games this week, as opposed to last weeks games or posts.

 

 

 

Dre if they dont like it, then they shouldnt read it.......Keep Posting!!

 

This is a great huddler for sharing with us something he purchased with his hard earned money. Talk about being ungrateful.... :D

Edited by Mojo Rising
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my early take on the browns/steelers matchup tomorrow would seem to favor taking the brownies and the 7.5. steelers traditionally dominate this division foe. definite backdoor possibilities if pitt is up by 14 or under late.

 

then, it sort of hit me. the over/under is 34. cold weather expected (in the 20's) perhaps some snow (i think iheard 30-40 percent chance) and wind gusts of 10-15. looks like the under will get some action because of this. anyway, what ihave come up with, is that the oddsmakers have these numbers pretty tight. could be dead on the seven. i'm teasing both sides, pitt -1.5 and cleveland +13.5 and going over 28. actually, i prolly will take the 7 pt tease and more juice to give me pitt -.5, browns +14.5 and over 27. 3 team 6 pt. teasers pay 9/5 and i think 7 pt.teasers pay 8/5.

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The Over/Under on this game is now a remarkable 33.5

 

Since October 1, there have been 6 games w/ an O/U of 33.5 or less. Here is how they did vs the number:

 

10/1/2006 Cleveland @ Oakland O/U 33.5, Actual Total 45

10/9/2006 Baltimore @ Denver O/U 33, Actual Total 16

10/15/2006 Carolina @ Baltimore O/U 33.5, Actual Total 44

10/22/2006 Denver @ Cleveland O/U 31, Actual Total 24

11/12/2006 Denver @ Oakland O/U 33, Actual Total 30

11/19/2006 Washington @ Tampa Bay O/U 33.5, Actual Total 37

 

As you can see, O/U has gone 3-3 in these situations. It is interesing to note that the 3 unders all involved the Broncos.

 

Now if you check out the gameday weather you will see that there is some light snow in the forecast.

 

Looking earlier than that:

 

Dec 6 Tonight

Rain and snow showers this evening transitioning to snow showers overnight. Low 32F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 60%. About one inch of wet snow expected.

 

Dec 7 Tomorrow

Snow flurries and snow showers. Colder. High 32F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.

 

Dec 7 Tomorrow night

Snow flurries and snow showers. Cold. Low 19F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60%.

 

The winds would be the biggest thing, as the snow isn't going to be more than an inch or even flurries at gametime.

 

However the thing I worry about is field condition. Heinz Field is notoriously bad and sloppy. During the winter it gets even moreso. They will have it covered, so hopefully whatever rain preceeds the snow won't affect the field. While the field may be frozen, even 1" of snow combined w/ it melting due to players tramping on it will turn an already poor field worse.

 

It is hard for teams to kick FGs in there. The wind plays w/ the ball. So that could lower points.

 

One other thing I was thinking about was how bad Gardocki's punting game has been this year. I looked up the stats, already having a hunch.

 

He has the #28th best punting yardage in the league. I mean, he came into the league in 1990 - he's been punting for 16 years and his leg is worn out. I can only imagine in the cold.

 

Couple that w/ the great special teams of Cleveland. If field position is a battle, I look for Clev to get the upper hand based on the above, and it could result in some short fields for Cleveland. Now that may not matter as much if they can't punch in TDs, because w/ a sloppy field and high winds, they may not be getting many FGs of any distance, either.

 

We will have to see more about the filed, but right now taking Clev +15 and combining it w/ the over 27.5 looks promising. I wonder if bettors are over reacting to the weather, or if maybe the U 39.5 would be better to substitute for the over...

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i just had lunch at the suncoast casino and bet a few horses while i was there. hit race 7 at laurel with an exacta for 10 bucks. two favorites but it still paid a hundo. anyway, back to my story. the line moved to -8 and 33.5 like dre stated. made it easier to stick with the 6 pt teaser, so thats what i played. browns +14, steelers -2 and over 27.5.

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First let me say I think both of those could be winners. Since you now have 2 wagers that are riding on over 27.5, if the weather is looking pretty bad what you could do closer to gametime is take an alternate line on the under.

 

Right now it's at 33.5 for -106.

 

You could hedge your bet a little (if you get nervous about weather, and only then would you want to do this) and take the alternate low for the game. The Under may be 27.5 or 26.5, and it may be +150 or something like that. You could take a % of your original wager and stick it on that if you want.

 

It's not a 100% hedge, but it may be a little reassurement. Or you could risk it and wait until halftime, and then hedge that way, depending on the halftime score. That may be your best bet... Good luck!

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I decided to research Gardocki's punting a little more:

 

The last 2 years from Sep - Oct playing outdoors: 42.6 yards

2005 in Nov: 43.7

2006 in Nov: 40

2005 in Dec: 38

2006 in Dec: 36.6 (only 1 game played)

 

So he is better, fresher and kicking better early in the year. He is worse this Nov than last Nov, and he is worse this Dec than last Dec. I am sure most kickers don't kick as far in the cold, but he has been getting worse from year to year, and punting pretty miserably right now.

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I decided to research Gardocki's punting a little more:

 

The last 2 years from Sep - Oct playing outdoors: 42.6 yards

2005 in Nov: 43.7

2006 in Nov: 40

2005 in Dec: 38

2006 in Dec: 36.6 (only 1 game played)

 

So he is better, fresher and kicking better early in the year. He is worse this Nov than last Nov, and he is worse this Dec than last Dec. I am sure most kickers don't kick as far in the cold, but he has been getting worse from year to year, and punting pretty miserably right now.

 

:D No girlfiend, huh?

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Having a rooting interest in a sporting event where you have absolutely zero emotional attachment just because you dropped a dime on one side or the other is a very wonderful and exciting experience that I encourage all to participate in from time to time.

 

That doesn't change the fact that weather and punting are about as scintilating a topic of conversation as rug fiber.

 

Figure that Chris Gardocki's crappy leg has been figured into the line and go with the OVER.

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