Week 14 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Having a rooting interest in a sporting event where you have absolutely zero emotional attachment just because you dropped a dime on one side or the other is a very wonderful and exciting experience that I encourage all to participate in from time to time.

 

That doesn't change the fact that weather and punting are about as scintilating a topic of conversation as rug fiber.

 

Figure that Chris Gardocki's crappy leg has been figured into the line and go with the OVER.

 

 

Actually you'd may be suprised how key things like that can factor into a game, especially w/ such a low Under/Over number. Every point is a much larger percentage of the total score when the number is this low.

 

Last Cle/Pit game I took the over. It covered by 7.5 points. And in that game Clev returned a KO for a TD. Would it have won w/o the special teams? Perhaps, but you never know.

 

Field position is huge in a low total game. It may not be the most scintilating topic, but it factors into the game. You can say it is figured into the line, but when the line is jumping from 7.5 to 9 back down to 7 and more importantly, the Under is dropping from 37.5 to 36 to 35, 34, and now 33, those little things are now not factored into the spread.

 

They may be factored into the opening line. But when money comes in, and the line shifts, you have to look at where the value lies. And trying to figure that out means looking at all sorts of stats that many find as scintilating a topic of conversation as rug fiber.

[Goopster24]

I'm not buying into this whole over notion. This is another game just like last week with some bad weather building up. Pittsburgh is building up some bad weather and that turf at Heinz is god awful. Pittsburgh has a nasty record of over at home I believe but they went under last week. I think I want to ride that now. Also, the last three games in this series has also gone over, so factoring in the weather, they are due for an under.

 

7 points is a lot for a divisional matchup, no matter how bad the teams are. A point of reference: In 2003, the year that the Steelers did not make the playoffs, they were also laying down 7 points to the Browns and got beat outright. I'm a big believer in momentum and the revenge factor. This Browns team lost a game they should have won back a couple of weeks against the Steelers. They are also riding the high of last week's overtime win. The overtime factor and the short week of practice (they only had one full practice) scares me yes, but they are playing tough.

 

I made two bets:

 

A parlay bet with Cleveland +7 and Under 32.5

A spread bet with Cleveland +7

 

I put half the amount I bet on the spread on the parlay. A teaser was tempting, but I just did this. I won't be watching as I am at college and we don't get NFL Network. Plus, a paper needs some work. Gotta love finals!

[Donutrun Jellies]

My wife has been in Texas for work going on 3 months and I busted up my arm lifting. So no wife and no nights spent in the weight room = time to reseach semi-meaningless kicker stats.

 

Carry on then.

[Steeltown Dre]

I know I seem to be focusing on the Thurs night game, I guess because it is tonight. But let's discuss some other interesting matchups this weekend.

 

It looks like people are all over Ten +1 @ Hou. Ten covered 2 straight at home. They should kill Hou. Why would they get points? Since Vince Young took over, not counting his first loss against Dallas, they have covered in 7 of 8 games, whether on the road or at home. Aside from that 1 game, a blowout defeat in Jacksonville, they have not only covered against a decent Indy team, a decent Baltimore team, and then beat that same Indy team.

 

Hou on the other hand has lost 2 out of 3, and their last game against Oak I will say they were lucky to win. Janikowski missed 3 FGs from close range, and Oak killed themselves w/ penalties in scoring position. Bright spots for Hou was a season sweep of Jax. And that's about it. Those were 2 of their 4 wins this year. Beating Mia w/ Daunte at the helm in the 3rd game of the year and that lucky game against Oakland last week are nothing to write home about.

 

So why is Houston favored? You tell me. Could this be a sucker bet waiting to happen?

 

I see some value in Min and some value in Jax based on my worksheets, but I have not yet capped the games.

 

Anyone else onto some other games this weekend?

Edited December 7, 2006 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Update to the Thurs night game:

 

The weather has become more of an issue overnight. Winds are expected to be 15mph, gusting to over 25mph. That is extremely difficult to put the ball in the air w/ accuracy. Be it a pass, a FG, a punt or a kickoff. Historically high winds, in excess of 20 mph, have resulted in unders.

 

You can get the over 33 for + juice. But based on public info since the line dropped below 35, 73% of the picks came to the over. This is not actual action, however. It just shows that many in the public at one website think that this total is set too low.

 

Perhaps the same guys got roped into taking the Under in the last "Snowy Weather" national TV game - GB @ Sea, which dropped from 46 on Wed down to 42 on Monday afternoon. And 58 total points were scored.

 

My advice on the amount wagered would be: "tread lightly" - this game has so many unknowns. It certainly is not the largest bet I am going to make this weekend. Unknowns such as:

 

25 mph wind

Field conditions - this field will be much worse than Quest

Injury to Frye

Rookie QB

Short week to prepare

Injuries to Pitt WRs and Secondary

[spain]

I like the 7.5 points in what should be a low scoring, RIVALRY game. Neither team inspires much confidence here. But that is a large number in this spot I think...

[godtomsatan]

They may be factored into the opening line. But when money comes in, and the line shifts, you have to look at where the value lies. And trying to figure that out means looking at all sorts of stats that many find as scintilating a topic of conversation as rug fiber.

 

 

You have a couple of great numbers to deal with already. Don't overthink the decision!

[kerwin8]

Is anybody else looking at the Giants at Panthers game? They've pulled the line at sportsbook.com, but if it goes back up at the same level it was, then they're giving NYG+3.0 with +120 juice, and the O/U is at 41.

 

I'm not too sure about the O/U, but I do know that Carolina's defense has been showing up and playing well at home lately, and Delhomme tore something in his thumb on his throwing hand. I placed a small bet on the Giants earlier, but I'd consider putting up a teaser with the under as well if the line doesn't change much.

 

Has anybody else looked at this game?

[Steeltown Dre]

You have a couple of great numbers to deal with already. Don't overthink the decision!

 

 

Good call - that does happen, especially when trying really hard to read into the line.

[Marauders11]

Here is something to think about especially with tonight's over/under dropping so dramatically COMBINED with the fact that the public is all over the OVER bet and continues to bet OVER as the number goes down. (This is accoring to wagerline.com which tracks bets on all sides opf a game, both teams, over under, etc. to guage "public plays"):

 

The Smart Money strategy is an alert-based feature that appears whenever the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. The alert is triggered automatically whenever the betting line (moneyline, O/U, or point-spread) moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. The Smart Money strategy alert is designed to help members notice unusual betting line movement and quickly capitalize on it.

 

Betting lines move for many reasons; injury updates, weather, etc., but “betting line movement” that goes against the “betting percentages” is an excellent indicator of Smart or Wiseguy Money. For example, 77% of the public is betting on NYJ -7, but the line moves to NYJ -6. This line movement would trigger a "Smart Money" alert.

 

I'm betting UNDER tonight!

[Rockerbraves]

Tell the honest truth. Does anyone really have a clue to whats going to happen tonight in this kind of a meaningless game with the weather being even a bigger unknown? Give me the team getting the points.

[Steeltown Dre]

Is anybody else looking at the Giants at Panthers game? They've pulled the line at sportsbook.com, but if it goes back up at the same level it was, then they're giving NYG+3.0 with +120 juice, and the O/U is at 41.

 

I'm not too sure about the O/U, but I do know that Carolina's defense has been showing up and playing well at home lately, and Delhomme tore something in his thumb on his throwing hand. I placed a small bet on the Giants earlier, but I'd consider putting up a teaser with the under as well if the line doesn't change much.

 

Has anybody else looked at this game?

 

 

 

It actually opened at +4 and I was going to take it when it was +3.5, then I started analyzing some other games and before I knew it, it was off the board.

 

Car has a 4-2 record in covering games at home, and a 2-4 record ATS on the road. One of the reasons I had Philly on Monday. At home they have been better.

 

My line was pretty much on Car -2.5 in terms of the factors I use. This game from an inputs standpoint is pretty even. Giants are ranked slightly higher in passing and rushing offense, they also have the slightest adv in rushing D. Car is better against the pass. NYG have the adv in turnovers and 3rd down %. One thing that is tilting it towards Car is the penalties. NYG have the 4th most penalty yardage in the league, wheras Car has the 22nd most. As evidenced by the Giants in their last game.

 

Understanding that they were undisciplined last game, I think this game is almost a -2 or so. Car had a chance to win at Philly and are let down. NYG are as well. Both teams are in "need-to-win" situations. After that close game w/ Hou (affected by wind) NYG lost 4 in a row. They also have lost 4 in a row ATS, not including a push (if you got +3) against Dallas.

 

This is a close game that could go either way. I would lean towards taking the points. Those who got the points prior to the Delhomme announcement may be in luck if he can't go.

[NSab]

I am leaning towards Pitt and the under. What say you?

[HowboutthemCowboys]

I am leaning towards Pitt and the under. What say you?

I like CLE and the under.

[NSab]

I like CLE and the under.

 

Why Cleveland? I think think Pitt's D will eat the inexperienced QB for dinner.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Why Cleveland? I think think Pitt's D will eat the inexperienced QB for dinner.

 

Anderson played well against a decent D last week (I realize KC was playing with a lead) and both of Pitt's starting safeties are out. The Brown's are playing in a national game this week which does'nt happen very often for them and should be fired up after a comeback win last week. Not to mention they're division rivals. CLE also gave Pitt all they could handle when they met a few weeks ago. Also Hines is out. I think Pitt wins but does'nt cover.

 

DISCLAIMER: The reason I don't bet football much is b/c I usually lose.

[NSab]

Anderson played well against a decent D last week (I realize KC was playing with a lead) and both of Pitt's starting safeties are out. The Brown's are playing in a national game this week which does'nt happen very often for them and should be fired up after a comeback win last week. Not to mention they're division rivals. CLE also gave Pitt all they could handle when they met a few weeks ago. Also Hines is out. I think Pitt wins but does'nt cover.

 

DISCLAIMER: The reason I don't bet football much is b/c I usually lose.

 

 

 

Thanks for caviat, I need a winner tonight.

[Trots]

I like Pittsburgh to cover rather easily. These Thursday games are tough on the road team as far as practice and travel schedules. The fact that Cleveland has an inexperienced QB surely will not help them. PIT 24 CLE 6

[wrongheaded]

if anyone has the time check out the blog in my signature. it could use some fine critical analysis.

[NSab]

I did a tease for a dime, Pitt -1 and under 39.5 total.

[wildcat2334]

I did a tease for a dime, Pitt -1 and under 39.5 total.

 

 

 

damn, you all dropping some dimes in here huh?? heavy hitters very niiiiiice.

no halfs or dollar players in here?

 

I used to play the NFL quite a bit - no mas. College football and hoops for this guy.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

I did a tease for a dime, Pitt -1 and under 39.5 total.

 

good luck

[NSab]

good luck

 

 

Thanks Bro.

[Steeltown Dre]

I took Cle +15 and Over 27.5 earlier in the week.

 

My numbers, ignoring weather, are showing Pitt wins by 10, 24-14.

 

Of course, there is weather however.

 

Taking weather into account I'm not sure what will happen. I saw the field around 5pm and the wind was whipping around pretty damn good and blowing light flurries.

 

Looking at it now, and in addition to being cold as sh*t, the field looks in dry but it's all dirt in the middle. I can see it getting chewed up and muddy later in the game.

 

I think one key will be the short passing game, and the ability of Anderson to read the D. I agree w/ Trots, the advantage will go to the home team w/ the stronger D.

 

This is going to be a fun game to watch. I'm going to stick w/ my earlier bet and look to hit some in game action during commercial breaks.

[Steeltown Dre]

if anyone has the time check out the blog in my signature. it could use some fine critical analysis.

 

 

That one looks good too. I'd take that one if I wanted to take another. Good luck tonight!