Week 15 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

[Steeltown Dre]

One thing to look at closely this time of year is the playoff scenarios.

 

Teams that need to win

Teams want home field locked up

Teams that already have their fate set

Teams that are fighting for their coaches job or their own

Teams that have already gone fishing

Teams in contention for 1st round draft picks

 

Also some results on the wagerline fade trend.

 

It lost last week (barely) and the reason I say barely is you are to take the largest % road fav and fade them.

 

Last week Atlanta received 69.68% of votes and Seattle came in a close 2nd w/ 69.07%. Obviously fading Atlanta lost, but fading AZ won.

 

We have to take the L w/ ATL, to make the season trend 11-3.

 

One interesting note. There were 4 road favs which received 65% or more votes.

 

Of those 4, only 1 won. The other 3 not only failed to cover but lost.

 

So far looking at wagerline, we have 76% on STL, but they are a road dog so that does not apply. The largest road fav right now is:

 

Den -3 @ Ari.

 

We'll update this as we go along this week.

[gerry.harris]

Well, i do not have any type of system or formula or bet on fads, i just bet on what my gut tells me and last week I went 11-3 ATS betiing on game lines and over/unders. But odds are that I will not do near as well this week. But, here are the games that I really like right now.

 

San Fran +9.5

Miami +1

Cincinnati +3

St. Loius + 2.5

Da Bears -13.5

Jax -3.5

 

I also think that i like Arz to upset Denver so i will probally take AZ +2.5

 

Just my feelings. What do the rest of yall think. We would like to hear opinios from everyone.

[xMRogers]

One thing - the road fav trend actually works if go out 2 teams each week. Believe the one was 11-2, and the two were 23-3 or something. This week took it to 24-4. Definitely worth looking at the top two played road favs.

 

Haven't started thinking about it yet as still licking my "rams should cover" wounds that ruined a great weekend.

[Mojo Rising]

Last week was good to me.....lets hope it spills over. Im looking at:

 

SF/SEA Over 43 (both offenses know and will score)

 

Jets +3 (bounce back game)

 

Jaguars -3.5 (cinderella is finally put face down a$$ up)

 

Giants -5 (at home, should move to 6.5 by sunday)

Edited December 13, 2006 by Mojo Rising

[Steeltown Dre]

One of the things my system does is generates my predicted line and compares that to the actual line.

 

Since October, there have been 18 games which I had the opposite team favored that Vegas had. ("Pickem" games don't count i.e. if I have the spread favoring a certain team by .5 points or less, that is a pickem)

 

Out of those 18 games, I have won 16 of them. And not ATS either, I am talking taking the ML dog I have gone 16-2.

 

Unfortunately this week does not generate any of these plays. I am posting this to remind me when I look back to check future games and post. The alert went off last week when it said:

 

Ari, Min, Jax and Balt all would win as underdogs.

 

After going 4-0, I decided to research the trend and found it had gone 16-2 since October (which is when my system kicks in). Hopefully we will have some more of these plays.

 

As for this week, I will add more feedback, but my system is generating some plays, however most are on heavy favorites which I don't like playing. I think probably next week is when the bottom drops out on my system plays, because all the season-ending intangibles play a much larger role.

 

A couple of the strong plays it is generating are Chi and Balt. It also likes the Over in both (predicting 41 in Balt and 40 in Chi vs a vegas total of 33 on each game).

 

I need to cap these completely to see if I would advise to play on these, but a same game 6 point teaser may be the way to go. Both are at home and both are in need of wins to lock up certain playoff byes or HFA. Both are playing teams w/ rookie QBs who are on the road. Both go back on the road the following week, and have the motivation to get another win in w/ HFA.

 

So while I may not like laying 13 to Chi or 11 to Balt, laying 7 to Chi (maybe a 6.5 teaser to get -6.5) and 5 to Balt are much more reasonable.

 

My strongest underdog it is generating is SF followed, with a lean to Car, but again, I need to actually do the hard work now and see if I will play on those.

[xMRogers]

I normally go away from (or play opposite) double digit favorites, but I honestly see no possible way CHicago doesn't beat Tampa by 20. i honestly think Chicago D and ST (including Gould) outscores Tampa by 14 or more.....

[crispirons]

I normally go away from (or play opposite) double digit favorites, but I honestly see no possible way CHicago doesn't beat Tampa by 20. i honestly think Chicago D and ST (including Gould) outscores Tampa by 14 or more.....

 

 

add to the fact that the bucs have packed it in and travel to crappy weather. i'm not so sure about the over/under as the bucs have a good chance at being shut out. maybe the short week for the bears could factor as well.

[Trots]

I'm slightly concerned with the Baltimore game this week as it appears to be a trap game. @ KC last week and @ PIT next week may make this a look ahead game. The Browns always seem to play the Ravens tough. Both 10-7 and 24-17 are possibilities here. There is a lot of familiarity between the 2 franchises in both the front office and the players.

[xMRogers]

I'm slightly concerned with the Baltimore game this week as it appears to be a trap game. @ KC last week and @ PIT next week may make this a look ahead game. The Browns always seem to play the Ravens tough. Both 10-7 and 24-17 are possibilities here. There is a lot of familiarity between the 2 franchises in both the front office and the players.

 

 

Agree here - i'll either take Cleve or lay off this one.

[xMRogers]

add to the fact that the bucs have packed it in and travel to crappy weather. i'm not so sure about the over/under as the bucs have a good chance at being shut out. maybe the short week for the bears could factor as well.

 

 

Agree - normally would never predict a team won't score....but unless they get a pick six, no way do they get more than 7 pts tops, so the over may be tough for CHicago to get to (the Tampa D is still playing with a little pride, but just gets worn down by the third quarter)

[Avernus]

the best chance at money nowadays is 5 team teasers and taking a few "overs"....sweetheart teasers are for suckers, though....

[Steeltown Dre]

This week we have 4 teams that are playing at home and are favs of 10 points or more.

 

I will have something written up on a couple of these games later this week.

 

But here are some numbers that may be of interest. I don't really trace individual team trends over more than a season because so much changes from team to team.

 

So I could care less that San Fran may be 34-9 ATS over the last decade following a SU loss where they were favored by 5 or more points. (I made that up of course)

 

However trends in spread alone are quite valuable info. I thought I may have posted this before but I can't find it:

 

Last 10 years ( 1996 - 2006 ) though week 8 2006

Home Dogs < 3 ( 1-2.5 ) went 117-96 ATS ...54.93% ...& 115-98 SU...53.99%

 

Of these 213 games played where the Home Dog was receiving less than 3 points

a total of 10 games ( 4.7 % ) resulted in a score where the visitor won by 3 points .

 

So what are the lessons from this?

 

If you like a home dog + 2.5 or below, don't take the points, take the ML, and never buy to 3.

 

Well this week it appears that 2 teams fall into this category: Car fits it to a T, being the underdog by 2.5 points. Arizona also is +1 and falls into the trend.

 

This is not saying to take either team. As you can see, taking the dog blindly would only hit about 54%.

 

What it is saying is if you like Zona or Car this week, it would be wise to put some on the line and also put some on ML, because you have (historically) almost identical odds of getting one right as you do the other.

[Steeltown Dre]

One other trend this week is on large home favs. Here it is:

 

Home Favorites of 10 or more from 2003-2006 (almost 4 full seasons ) have fared ATS >>>

 

33-50-4....37.93%......

74-13..SU....85.06%....

36 Over ...49 Under

 

**********************************************

on week 15 only .....>>>

 

1-4 ATS .....

5-0 SU

 

****************************************

 

weeks 14-17 ..>>>>>>

 

8-15-2....32 % ......

21-4 SU...84%.....

9 over ...15 under

 

 

EDIT TO ADD:The numbers above were from a guy who is very good w/ these things.  I however went back myself and checked them and I am coming up w/ some different figures:Home Favs of >= 10 points:season 2003-presentSU: 77-13-0 ATS: 40-48-2 weeks 14-17 season 2003-presentSU: 22-4-0ATS: 12-13-1So while not nearly as impressive as his numbers, the general idea is that when taking the large home fav this late in the season, they should win the game, but it's only a 50/50 shot at covering the spread.

 

 

 

So why do we care. Well I wanted to track this down (and fortunately there is a guy who is very good at tracking these things and so I asked him and got these numbers) because this week we have 4 games that feature home favs of -10 or more.

 

The week 15 numbers alone don't mean much to me, but the weeks 14-17 are of great importance.

 

The reason being, the later into the season you get (December) you will have teams w/ no incentive who are already out of the hunt and are traveling to the home of teams who are headed to the playoffs. Sometimes these spreads get inflated.

 

Personally this week, I really like Chi and Balt. What these numbers are showing is that there is a GREAT chance that both will win straight up, but a much smaller chance that they cover the spread.

 

I am not advocating a play yet on either side, just researching the numbers.

 

I do agree w/ feedback above, if both teams are playing their best D, TB and Cle may find problems scoring. So even though I like the O 33 in both games, we may find scores right around 30 or less.

 

Therefore I will say I am leaning heavily towards making a 7 point teaser w/ Chi -6 and Balt -4.

 

You could argue based on the above numbers it may be more wise to take TB+20 and Cle+18. However if you are just making a play for the sake of the "odds" I think a play on SF+17 and Hou+18 is more likely to hit than the play against Chi and Bal.

 

Anyhow, as I said before, large favs are hard plays for me to make, as are teasers. I prefer picking dogs or small favs, and no teasers or parlays. But sometimes a well researched teaser is a good play.

 

I will keep researching and post what I select.

Edited December 14, 2006 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Finally, I wanted to give some insight into a possible "Weather Play" on Thurs night.

 

I know we all heard about the weather last Thurs night, which opened at 37.5 and closed at 34. The weather didn't end up being an issue, and if you took the under 34 you would have pushed as the total was 34.

 

We also heard about it w/ GB @ Sea earlier this year. That game opened at 47 and was bet down to 42. The under on any number would have lost, as the total was 58.

 

That being said, a situation is developing for this game.

 

This total opened at 45 and has dropped all the way to 40.5 in just 3 days!

 

Why?

 

One reason could be the storm that is in Seattle right now and the one that is coming tomorrow.

 

Right now they have a Severe Weather Alert for a Wind Advisory:

 

STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER INTERIOR WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND PUGET SOUND REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

 

Well for tomorrow they have already issued a Severe Weather Alert:

 

A STRONG FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS IN ITS WAKE. THE WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY GATHERING ITSELF TOGETHER FAR OUT IN THE PACIFIC. THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK AS THOUGH THIS MAY BE THE STRONGEST AND DEEPEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF THE WEEK.

 

HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY BE IMPACTED WITH STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND FORECAST DEPENDS A GREAT DEAL ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE...SO STAY TUNED TO UPDATED FORECASTS.

 

Right now they are calling for winds 20 mph during the day and 30 mph in the evening. These aren't the gusts, these are the winds. I'm guessing if this storm is stronger than the storm of today, the gusts would be stronger as well, which would mean > 45 MPH.

 

As you know, nothing affects a score more than wind.

 

If this was to happen, and who knows if it will or not, you could have a more run dominated game, which this season seems like it may actually favor SF more.

 

I already liked SF, and I like them even more. If this storm comes down like it is planned, SF and the under looks possible. To those who got it at 45, consider yourselves lucky.

 

Any seattle homers, we could use your insight into this weather situation. Can you remember any games in the past couple of years where the winds were as bad as they are predicting? I can look up the opening and closing lines and see which games went under.

[kerwin8]

Dre,

 

Last year's game in Chicago would be a good place to start for windy games (against SF IIRC). Vasher set the longest TD play record (now 2nd place) off the wind-shorted field goal, if that helps you find the date.

 

I can't remember any games here in Seattle being that windy. Hell, there wasn't even a single RAINY game in Seattle for the first two seasons at Qwest field. That said, one of my coworkers came in from outside about an hour ago and was all giddy that the wind "felt like it could pick [her] up and carry [her] away." (she's about 6'2", so that's no small feat). I haven't been outside myself, but if it's going to get worse tomorrow, then the under looks like a fantastic bet.

 

I hope that helps.

[godtomsatan]

Any seattle homers, we could use your insight into this weather situation. Can you remember any games in the past couple of years where the winds were as bad as they are predicting? I can look up the opening and closing lines and see which games went under.

 

 

There was no weather during Seahawk games before this season. The Univ. of Washington has had some severe weather games that might be similar to what's expected tomorrow. Most recently vs. Oregon State in 2005.

 

The MNF game vs. Dallas a couple years back was the only game I can recall off the top of my head that had remotely questionable conditions at kickoff, but the rain was gone by the offensive explosion from Julius Jones in the 4th quarter.

 

The Green Bay game was clearly the most severe weather in Seahawk history, but the snow and ice was a 1st half phenomenon, and the 2nd half was quite clear (albeit cold as ballz).

 

What they are talking about happening tomorrow night (and what has been going on this afternoon) is much more severe than either of these situations as far as football goes. All I'll say is that 40 seems like a low total for these teams/run defenses despite what Mama Nature has in store (supposedly).

[Steeltown Dre]

Thanks Kerwin and Tom, sounds like this may be a first. I remember that Chi game and I also remember the Texans/NYG game earlier this year which went way under the total.

 

I don't see a distinct advantage in the under or over in the game (based on the predicted total I am getting) unless there is a major issue in the weather.

 

I checked for updates and indeed they are predicting things are going to be bad, but it seems they will get the worst of it after the game is over.

 

That being said, they still are predicting around 22mph sustained winds during the game.

 

But the national weather service issued a High Wind Warning starting at 2pm local time (game is at 5pm local):

 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT WILL PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

 

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY...LOCALLY RISING TO 40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY FRIDAY THEN EASE DURING THE DAY.

 

THE HIGH WINDS WILL CAUSE FALLING TREES...BRING DOWN POWER LINES AND PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES...AND DAMAGE SOME STRUCTURES.

 

So it sounds like it could be bad, but you have to remember this is weather and it could change by gametime. I am not going to put much of my hard earned money on something as unpredictable as weather.

 

And Tom, you are right. Just because teams may run the ball more does not necessarily = an under. I predicted an under a few weeks back on the Cardinals/Rams game, because I knew both teams would be running more than usual, and having more success than normal due to the opposition's poor rush D.

 

I was right in that they did rush more than normal. Leinart only threw for 186 yards and 1 TD. Edge had his 1st 100 yard game of the year getting 115, and Jackson ran for 96 yards. But the problem was since the rush Ds were so bad, each starting running back averaged 4.5 ypc, and the teams were able to move the ball up and down the field and put up some points faster than I anticipated.

 

The Cards picked up 24 first downs and only average 18 on the season, and the Rams picked up 26 first downs and average only 20 on the season. That's 12 more first downs than expected from both teams, and that equals FGs and TDs.

Edited December 14, 2006 by Steeltown Dre

[xMRogers]

Here's the thing with the wind - it's not just the impact on actually throwing the ball, but you'll see less FG attempts, and no long ones as the chances of making are diminished, and missed FG are bad field position plays. Before I looked at this, parlayed SF and the under as, while the D's both can give up pts, between the wind, Alex Smith's collapse, two big injuries for Seattle's O, and a few other factors I see a 14-10 type game coming.

[kerwin8]

I am absolutely NOT going to be happy if I lose power in the middle of this game. Wind be damned!

[keggerz]

I like TB to cover

[wrongheaded]

There are some nice Fantasy matchup plays this week, check my signature for some analysis. We all know fantasy matchups here and there are some good opportunities out there.

[godtomsatan]

I like TB to cover

 

 

True or false? Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL right now.

[crispirons]

i'm betting the over tonight. crispirons over/under for 6 beers drank. should have the number by half time.

[keggerz]

True or false? Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL right now.

 

False...wait is OAK still in the NFL ok just ckd OAK is still in the NFL so TB isnt the worst team

Edited December 14, 2006 by keggerz