Week 15 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

I won't post more weather info in here for tonight - too much info and we've got another thread going on weather. Looks sketchy at best - my advice is to watch some or all of the 3 hr pregame show on the NFL network - starts in about 30 minutes.

 

The O/U is now 38.5. Pretty low for teams ranked #16 and #20 against the run, and #18 and #24 against the pass. So everyone who is taking the under must be banking on the weather.

 

These Thursday night games are a new animal this year. It seems the home team has the distinct advantage, and going back to the first Thurs night game (Den @ KC) we have had 3 home favorites, 3 home covers, and 3 unders. Den KC U39 (29 scored), Cin Bal U42 (20 scored), Pit Cle U35 (34 scored).

 

But all of those teams had some type of D. All 3 leaned to the under in my system. When the line was in the low 40s, my system leaned on the under. Now that it is 38.5, no side whatsoever.

[rattsass]

I won't post more weather info in here for tonight - too much info and we've got another thread going on weather. Looks sketchy at best - my advice is to watch some or all of the 3 hr pregame show on the NFL network - starts in about 30 minutes.

 

The O/U is now 38.5. Pretty low for teams ranked #16 and #20 against the run, and #18 and #24 against the pass. So everyone who is taking the under must be banking on the weather.

 

 

 

 

I took a teaser before the O/U totally tanked. SF + 16.5 Under 47

 

I took S.F. +10 for a small amount.

 

I'm now thinking about doing an opposite teaser of Sea -3 and Over 31.5. Probably not though.

[Steeltown Dre]

False...wait is OAK still in the NFL ok just ckd OAK is still in the NFL so TB isnt the worst team

 

 

It is interesting, I will list the worst 5 teams in the NFL in terms of ATS:

 

Team ATS Record W/L Record

 

WAS 4-7-2 4-9-0

SEA 4-8-1 8-5-0

CAR 4-8-1 6-7-0

TB 4-8-1 3-10-0

DEN 4-9-0 7-6-0

DET 4-9-0 2-11-0

 

As you can see, you have some pretty bad teams here. Det, TB and Was.

 

But you also have some mediocre to above avg teams as well: Car, Sea and Den

 

Anything in common? They all were predicted to do very well this year, ESPN loved to tout Car or Sea as pre-season favorites to make the SB, and Den made the AFC Championship game and was predicted to do pretty well this year.

 

The truth is, the public still respects these teams even though they are not dominating anything. Which is why even though Sea is 8-5, they have only covered 31% of their games this year.

 

This is not saying to take Sea tonight, but as bettors, ranking teams by ATS is as good if not better as ranking them W/L.

 

So when talking about bad teams in the NFL, I'd look to Det or TB (from a betting aspect) before I'd look at Oakland. Even though they are 2-11, they have covered 46% of their games, which is good for 15th in the league.

 

I think everyone still thinks Gruden and TB have such a stout D and they underestimate how far that team has dropped in a couple of years, and how poor their running game is (29th in the league).

 

People think Oak just stinks but don't realize they have the #1 overall pass D which is actually a legit ranking, as they allow the 7th fewest yards per attempt. (Sometimes the rankings are not legit, such as the Rams pass D. Sure, they rank 8th in the league, but they allow the 2nd MOST yards per attempt - people would rather run on their 31st ranked rush D.)

 

Oak has slightly worse total offense numbers compared to TB, and I won't argue too much about other aspects of the two - they both are pretty bad and their records show it.

 

The point is, when betting, Oak has a much worse perception than TB does, and therefore TB gets tighter lines than Oak. Oak can cover those big lines, and TB can't cover the tighter ones.

 

When TB was given 12.5 points at big D on Thanksgiving, they lost by 28. The only other game they were close to the same line as this week was 9.5 at NYG and they lost by 14.

 

Not saying Chi is a lock to cover almost 2 TDs, but just discussing how TB has done vs. the spread this year.

[Steeltown Dre]

I took a teaser before the O/U totally tanked. SF + 16.5 Under 47

 

I took S.F. +10 for a small amount.

 

I'm now thinking about doing an opposite teaser of Sea -3 and Over 31.5. Probably not though.

 

 

Yesterday I took that same teaser - I took a 7 point one, though, so SF +17 and U 47.5

 

More of an action play than a way to add to my bankroll, though. These Thurs night games w/ weather are so unpredictable I don't want to make any of them my "main" plays for the weekend.

 

Last week I had Cle +15 and O 28.5. The Over hit but Cle didn't show up. If SF does not show up tonight, you won't see me teasing many more dogs on Thurs night football...

[keggerz]

It is interesting, I will list the worst 5 teams in the NFL in terms of ATS:

 

Team ATS Record W/L Record

 

WAS 4-7-2 4-9-0

SEA 4-8-1 8-5-0

CAR 4-8-1 6-7-0

TB 4-8-1 3-10-0

DEN 4-9-0 7-6-0

DET 4-9-0 2-11-0

 

As you can see, you have some pretty bad teams here. Det, TB and Was.

 

But you also have some mediocre to above avg teams as well: Car, Sea and Den

 

Anything in common? They all were predicted to do very well this year, ESPN loved to tout Car or Sea as pre-season favorites to make the SB, and Den made the AFC Championship game and was predicted to do pretty well this year.

 

The truth is, the public still respects these teams even though they are not dominating anything. Which is why even though Sea is 8-5, they have only covered 31% of their games this year.

 

This is not saying to take Sea tonight, but as bettors, ranking teams by ATS is as good if not better as ranking them W/L.

 

So when talking about bad teams in the NFL, I'd look to Det or TB (from a betting aspect) before I'd look at Oakland. Even though they are 2-11, they have covered 46% of their games, which is good for 15th in the league.

I think everyone still thinks Gruden and TB have such a stout D and they underestimate how far that team has dropped in a couple of years, and how poor their running game is (29th in the league).

 

People think Oak just stinks but don't realize they have the #1 overall pass D which is actually a legit ranking, as they allow the 7th fewest yards per attempt. (Sometimes the rankings are not legit, such as the Rams pass D. Sure, they rank 8th in the league, but they allow the 2nd MOST yards per attempt - people would rather run on their 31st ranked rush D.)

 

Oak has slightly worse total offense numbers compared to TB, and I won't argue too much about other aspects of the two - they both are pretty bad and their records show it.

 

The point is, when betting, Oak has a much worse perception than TB does, and therefore TB gets tighter lines than Oak. Oak can cover those big lines, and TB can't cover the tighter ones.

 

When TB was given 12.5 points at big D on Thanksgiving, they lost by 28. The only other game they were close to the same line as this week was 9.5 at NYG and they lost by 14.

 

Not saying Chi is a lock to cover almost 2 TDs, but just discussing how TB has done vs. the spread this year.

 

i bet you have this info rather handy, what were the spreads in the games that OAK has covered?

 

actually would you happen to have how teams have done ATS when they are double digit dogs?

 

how many games has CHI covered this year when they are double digit favs?

Edited December 14, 2006 by keggerz

[Steeltown Dre]

i bet you have this info rather handy, what were the spreads in the games that OAK has covered?

 

actually would you happen to have how teams have done ATS when they are double digit dogs?

 

how many games has CHI covered this year when they are double digit favs?

 

 

Oak results:

 

The first letter (W/L) is win or loss in the game. It is followed by the score. Then is the W/L ATS and the spread.

 

Date vs. Score Line O/U

09/11/06 SD L 0-27 L 3

09/17/06 @BAL L 6-28 L 12.5

10/01/06 CLE L 21-24 L 1

10/08/06 @SF L 20-34 L 3

10/15/06 @DEN L 3-13 W 14.5

10/22/06 ARI W 22-9 W 3

10/29/06 PIT W 20-13 W 9

11/06/06 @SEA L 0-16 L 7

11/12/06 DEN L 13-17 W 9

11/19/06 @KC L 13-17 W 9

11/26/06 @SD L 14-21 W 13

12/03/06 HOU L 14-23 L -3

12/10/06 @CIN L 10-27 L 10.5

 

So after starting the season 0-4 ATS, they have covered spreads of 14.5, 3, 9, 9, 9 and 13 before losing the last 2 ATS.

 

When dogs of 10 or more, they have gone 2-2 ATS.

 

As for all teams who were +10 or greater:

 

in 2006: 15-13 ATS, 5-23 SU

Since 2003: 54-48-2 ATS, 15-89 SU

 

Chi has played in 2 games w/ a spread larger than 10. Once in AZ on Monday night when they were favored by 12.5, and once at home against SF when they were favored by 16.

 

They didn't cover in AZ but won by 31 against SF.

[Steeltown Dre]

Here are some actual #s on the public bets for tonights game at sportsbooks including Pinnacle, CRIS, 5Dimes, SIA and Olympic:

 

37293 bets

 

12/14

8:00P

251 San Francisco 49ers

252 Seattle Seahawks

 

ATS:

42% SF

58% SEA

 

ML:

28% SF

72% SEA

 

Inc in Parlays:

51% SF

49% SEA

 

O/U:

76% Over

24% Under

[keggerz]

tks for the info, I will still stand by my TB will cover.

 

few thoughts:

 

1. The CHI D is going to miss Tommie Harris

2. I think lovie will run the ball much more this week to limit Rexs exposure to mistakes.

Why? Rex was able to get some confidence back with his performance on Monday nite and

I think that Lovie will want to protect that some not to mention that to win in the playoffs they are

going to need to be able to establish the run. By doing that they shorten the game and TB doesnt

have an explosive offense so you limit their opportunities.

3. What are the odds the Def/ST score again? My gut says they dont this week.

 

so with a Run oriented game plan I see CHI winning by as much as maybe 10 but I dont see them covering almost 2 TDs

 

also fwiw the trends slightly favor the dog covering so that is just icing on the cake

[keggerz]

 

 

O/U:

76% Over

24% Under

something about this makes me like the under

[Steeltown Dre]

Odds on Dick Vermeil crying or bottom lip quivvering in his interview

 

Cry -170

No Cry +125

[rattsass]

Odds on Dick Vermeil crying or bottom lip quivvering in his interview

 

Cry -170

No Cry +125

 

I'm all over the Cry.

[Steeltown Dre]

I was too. Hopefully that will be the only loss tonight.

[crispirons]

i will have a hard time NOT throwing my money on the jets this week. seems to me to be one of the best plays on the board.

[Vinatieri Is God]

Funny, I see that as totally the opposite. Love Minny.

[Steeltown Dre]

tks for the info, I will still stand by my TB will cover.

 

few thoughts:

 

1. The CHI D is going to miss Tommie Harris

2. I think lovie will run the ball much more this week to limit Rexs exposure to mistakes.

Why? Rex was able to get some confidence back with his performance on Monday nite and

I think that Lovie will want to protect that some not to mention that to win in the playoffs they are

going to need to be able to establish the run. By doing that they shorten the game and TB doesnt

have an explosive offense so you limit their opportunities.

3. What are the odds the Def/ST score again? My gut says they dont this week.

 

so with a Run oriented game plan I see CHI winning by as much as maybe 10 but I dont see them covering almost 2 TDs

 

also fwiw the trends slightly favor the dog covering so that is just icing on the cake

 

 

We'll have to see how the Tank Johnson situation plays out. Chicago has allowed 125 ypg on the ground the last 3 games (4.2 ypc) which is actually more than what TB has been allowing (117). Chicago has also allowed more yards in the air the last 3 than TB (although their ypc is better than TB).

[godtomsatan]

False...wait is OAK still in the NFL ok just ckd OAK is still in the NFL so TB isnt the worst team

 

 

OAK still looks like they try....

[Steeltown Dre]

FYI for gambling purposes - it looks like Sea will have the wind with them 1st and 3rd quarters. SF will have it 2nd and 4th.

[Steeltown Dre]

I took Sea -10 in game during the last commercial break (prior to the score). Alex Smith has been terrible and so at the least I will have a middle opportunity. The only way I lose is if it goes over 47 points and SF is within 10....

 

I had to pay -138 for it, but oh well... It is now -14...

[Ramhock]

OAK still looks like they try....

 

 

I haven't been in the financial position to bet games for a few years, but my team got up for the game on Monday. They are a nontackling finesse team. Football is an emotional game and I don't see ANY Oprahing way they can get up for flying out to Oakland. The Raiders are favored for this reason and if I ever made another wager, it would be on the Raiders.

[Steeltown Dre]

My system generated the strongest underdog play to be SF. That teaser worked out perfectly. I did lose some of my winnings by taking Sea -10 during the game. At that point, Alex Smith couldn't throw anywhere in the rain, Sea was stacking the box and it looked good. Then the rain let up, Sea couldn't convert on some drives and SF just got the momentum.

 

Overall a winning night, another check mark for my system play, and plus money heading into the weekend.

 

Those sportsbook numbers are great. Shows how much vegas made and how much the public got burned on YET ANOTHER GAME this year.

 

Dogs are running wild... On to the weekend.

[keggerz]

 

The O/U is now 38.5.

 

 

 

 

something about this makes me like the under

 

[Mojo Rising]

I feel sorry for those taking the under and getting it at 38.....and pushed.....or even 37.5.....

 

Last penalty made the TD possible......junk TDs hurt so much

 

I got it at 38.5 :thankugod:

[keggerz]

My system generated the strongest underdog play to be SF. That teaser worked out perfectly. I did lose some of my winnings by taking Sea -10 during the game. At that point, Alex Smith couldn't throw anywhere in the rain, Sea was stacking the box and it looked good. Then the rain let up, Sea couldn't convert on some drives and SF just got the momentum.

 

Overall a winning night, another check mark for my system play, and plus money heading into the weekend.

 

Those sportsbook numbers are great. Shows how much vegas made and how much the public got burned on YET ANOTHER GAME this year.

 

Dogs are running wild... On to the weekend.

 

[Mojo Rising]

Dre --

 

I'm a believer.....LET IT RAIN!

[Steeltown Dre]

 

Team ATS Record W/L Record

 

SEA 4-8-1 8-5-0

 

 

 

Let's make that 4-9-1 and 8-6-0. After winning their first 3 games and covering in 2 of them, they have now only covered in 2 of their last 11 games.

 

In their last 5, they have only covered 1 which they won outright at Denver. (Which was their only road cover of the season. They are 1-6 ATS on the road.) They have failed to cover and straight up lost 3 of the 4 games which they were favored.

 

As I said before, a lot of this is due to the fact that they made the SB, and were hyped to return this year.

 

The Steelers are similar. They are covering great at home, going 5-2 ATS. On the road, a totally different story. They are 0-5-1 ATS in road games this year.

 

In those road games, they were favored in 4 of the 6 games. Of those 4 games, they lost 3 of them outright and pushed at Cle.

 

This week they are favored in Car. The problem is, Car was also hyped big time prior to this year and have a terrible record ATS. Car is 3-4 ATS at home, and 1-4-1 ATS on the road.

 

After winning 2 games at home and covering in both (TB and STL) they have gone 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS their last 3, losing on the road in 2 of them to WAS and PHI.

 

This weekend is only the 2nd weekend they will be home dogs on the season. They lost ATS and SU last week as home dogs to the Giants.

 

(When favored at home, Car has gone 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS)

 

This is a game between 2 teams that have done very poor ATS on the year. The public has inflated perceptions of both, despite their struggles this year.

 

My system is showing this game as a pickem. Therefore it finds some value in taking the points. However it is not generating Car as a "Strong Play". Last night it generated SF as a "Strong Play", and as I said at the beginning of this thread, SF was the only strong dog the system picked this week.

 

I will take a closer look at this game, and am not sure yet if I will make a play on it.

 

Congrats to all who won on SF and the under last night, and let's keep building that bankroll this weekend.