Steeltown Dre Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money. The money train continued to end out a profitable 2006-07 NFL regular season. I ended the last several weeks of the season w/ 10 winning days and only 1 losing day, winning 8 straight primetime matchups. Onto the Wildcard Weekend analysis: As you know I have a system that has been very good in the regular season. Hit over 70% winners ATS and also O/U. I looking at the numbers of course for the playoffs, but also there is a much different type of wagering that you must do in the playoffs. We all know how tight Vegas usually sets the lines. To tell you these wildcard games are "tight" would be an understatement. My system does not assume anything, uses 15+ different inputs and creates its own spreads which are just decimals. -6.87, or +4.34, it could be any number. Before I bend in one final factor into the system, here is what it generates lined up w/ the current vegas lines: Kansas City / Indianapolis Vegas -6.5 My System -5.5 Dallas / Seattle Vegas -3 My System -3.0 Ny Jets / New England Vegas -9.5 My System -6.4 Ny Giants / Philadelphia Vegas -6.5 My System -6.3 As you can see, "tight" is an understatement. During the season, the only pure "system plays" are those which have a difference of 8 points or more. Because the system looks for value in a line, and the chances that the line it calculates will generate a cover on a vegas line. However, once you bend in the final factor, it generates a few slight leans on the games towards most home teams except for Seattle. However none are system plays. As always, I'll be looking long and hard at these games, and I hope you will too. We can use all the help we can get this week. Good luck and let's get that $. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 One thing to share w/ regard to bowl games: If you guys are heavy bowl bettors, I'm sure you know the mantra: Dogs in January. Last year in December bowl games, the favs went 8-12. Meaning taking every dog you would have come out on top, but still lost 8 games. However in Jan, Dogs went 6-2, including a 4-0 (Rose/Fiesta/Orange/Sugar) bowl sweep. This year in Dec, favs went 10-11. So taking all dogs would have probably ended up losing money, if you are putting even units across the board. But again, in Jan (like last year), Dogs are 5-1. And they are 2-0 in Rose/Fiesta, w/ both dogs winning SU. This year we still have an Orange and Sugar to go, plus the new "BCS CHAMPIONSHIP" game. Plus some other crappy bowls such as the International and the GMAC. In the 3 remaining "big bowls" you have the public on the favs: 54% on Louisville, 58% on LSU and 56% on OSU. Not enough to cause much line movement, as the public is on the MLs of the dogs at a larger %. Don't worry too much about those %, just remember, Dogs in January. I'm not advocating blind betting on Dogs in January, but look long and hard at a favorite before throwing $ on him. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Don't worry too much about those %, just remember, Dogs in January. I'm not advocating blind betting on Dogs in January, but look long and hard at a favorite before throwing $ on him. Good luck. Last night was a good example of that. I figured the over was a lock. So I arranged my bets around the over and took Teaser: over/Ok -1. I took a small parlay: over/B.St ML. And a larger straight Over bet to cover the whole thing. I hedged it all on the over, but my profit blew up when Boise won, which took the series of bets from a profit to slightly above even for the night. But considering what a great game it was I didn't really care that my little plan didn't hatch out. Killed by the statue of liberty. But it was worth every penny. In the NFL this week I am leaning toward KC, NYJ, DAL, and PHIL ATS. I'm arranging several parlays that all end with the Philadelphia game, some for a ML win and some for the -6.5 points. I'm also on KC moneyline and over parlay, but if you are going to play that way I would suggest you get onboard early because those plays have the potential to get more expensive as the week goes along. I don't know why I am on the Chiefs in this game. Oh, yeah I do. It's Larry Johnson. Unless the Colts break out 14 points or more on the Chiefs, I can't imagine that the Colts will be able to slow Johnson. If he has anything left at all, he can chew up the Colts and spit them out. That being said, I have probably lost more money over the years betting on these two teams than any other. Both of these teams can choke in the playoffs like nobody's business. So why am betting on this game at all is beyond me. I guess when it comes down to two 'chokers' I'll take the one getting the points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 it was a what could have been weekend for me. i missed two hedges that were imperative. one was my fault as nevada reno/miami went off at 4:30 and not 5 like i thought. i had nevada moneyline with 3 other dog moneylines. the other was not my fault as i had pats first half with the seahawks first half and the rams first half. the last play was atlanta +5.5 for the first half against the eagles. after halftimes of the early games i tried to hedge. they took that game off the board because of playoff implications. when they put it back up (about 15 minutes before the game) they did not put up a halftime number. no hedge, i lost. anyway, i lost about 500 dollars not being able to hedge at least a little of those longshot parlays. sucked. i do like wake forest tonight. they have been a good source of income throughought the yr. should be able to stay competitive and have a chance to win. small moneyline play, bigger spread play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Yea, Eagles spread cost me a large parlay (SeaML/NEML/Pitt+6) as I figured they'd be still fighting for east title...didn't count on Dallas losing and Reid sitting everyone. Still came close, but needed somethign to happen late... I like Louisville tonight. When I compare off vs def on both sides of the ball, give Louisville the edge. Put in a KCML/DalML/Philly-6.5 parlay already, plus a KC/NE/philly spread one as the NE line went down. With the trend of the season, I'm thinking two dogs win outright - picking it to be Dal and KC, but we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 That Oklahoma/Boise St game was one of the craziest gambling games ever. I took Oklahoma -6 1/2 for the game and was never really in it until the pick for 6 with one minute to go. It was looking like one of the greatest covers of all time as all Oklahoma had to do was keep Boise from scoring a TD in the final minute of the game. 4th and 18, hook and lateral later - tie game! In OT, the only way to really cover a 6 1/2 pt spread was to have Oklahoma score 7 first and then hold Boise scoreless. Of course Boise scores another TD on 4th down, goes for the 2 and assures me of a loss. The only consolation was the fact that the Sooners covered the 2nd half line of 7. What a range of emotions in the final 2 minutes of this game! (4th and 18 conversion - where have I heard that before?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 What a range of emotions in the final 2 minutes of this game! (4th and 18 conversion - where have I heard that before?) That's what I was saying. Win lose or draw, that was an awesome game. One of the best I have ever seen especially from a gamblers perspective. A wild ride. On the cheap. That's what I call quality time...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 money coming in on the over 53 tonight at an 80% rate. only one game that wake played this yr went over that total. i think the public is seriously wrong about this under/over play and i think vegas has missed the boat on the line. 6 or 7 should be the number in my estimation. i also looked at road records of both wake and louisville and like wake even more. sidenote: that little birdie that gave me lasalle over niagara on saturday....i killed it for being wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Agree on the Under tonight. 53 is a lot. I like Lousiville to cover, but stay around 30-35 and not give up more than 2 TDs. Another subject - anyone know where I can get the past few seasons of pro lines and results (by game), specifically with the moneylines included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 just got back from the casino. over/under for tonight is now at 54. i have wake and the under 54 for fifty. wake +6 first half for fifty. wake moneyline +315 for a quarter. wake moneyline, the under 54, notre dame moneyline +255 and the chiefs moneyline +240.....4 team parlay 10 bucks for 950. 3 leg parlay with wake +10, notre dame +9, and the orlando magic tonight -5, 15 for 105. as far as your question xm.....i know jim feist puts out an annual with the past ten yrs results....ats included but not moneyline. that info would be nice. as for those that might question my notre dame play, they haven't won a bowl game in at least 6 yrs. THEY ARE DUE!!! my only concern is that the lsu players can party on bourbon st. whenever they want too, if the irish party up and don't focus, they could get smothered. i think they came to play this time and are motivated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 I'm with crisp on Notre Dame....mostly cause i have a parlay of Louisville -10 and ND moneyline....so need the second half to pay off big Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 I'm with crisp on Notre Dame....mostly cause i have a parlay of Louisville -10 and ND moneyline....so need the second half to pay off big Could you Domer's out there tell my why you are laying coin on N.D. tonight? I am not getting it. They haven't won a bowl game in a decade. They lost by double digits to every ranked opponent they faced this season, and LSU is basically playing a home game. Maybe I am just blind, but can someone tell me how Notre Dame has a chance to win this game, or even has a chance to cover the spread. I don't see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Could you Domer's out there tell my why you are laying coin on N.D. tonight? I am not getting it. They haven't won a bowl game in a decade. They lost by double digits to every ranked opponent they faced this season, and LSU is basically playing a home game. Maybe I am just blind, but can someone tell me how Notre Dame has a chance to win this game, or even has a chance to cover the spread. I don't see it. I'm a ND fan, and there's no way I'd take them and the points. LSU will be too much for them, the Irish D is pretty awful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Maybe I am just blind, but can someone tell me how Notre Dame has a chance to win this game, or even has a chance to cover the spread. I don't see it. Honestly, combination of : their QB and coach, the fact I do think they put up at least 21-28 pts, the under trend later in bowl games, and a little bit of "at some point, they'll win a bowl game - i'll take them to do it now that I'm getting 250 on the ML" On paper, they lose (although i don't think by more than 10 max), but the games ain't played on paper. I wouldn't risk a lot on this game either way, with the LSU ML being the only safe play to me, and the odds are so uneven, I wouldn't risk the say 1 in 4 shot ND wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 my reasoning is that the notre dame alum are getting tired of getting spanked in the bowl games every yr. i just think its time. i also think the line was set a wee bit too high, and the late money will all be on notre dame. wake missing that long field goal and fumbling before halftime really cost me some money. i'm not chasing any losses on this game but i am down on notre dame + 8 and moneyline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 my reasoning is that the notre dame alum are getting tired of getting spanked in the bowl games every yr. i just think its time. i also think the line was set a wee bit too high, and the late money will all be on notre dame. wake missing that long field goal and fumbling before halftime really cost me some money. i'm not chasing any losses on this game but i am down on notre dame + 8 and moneyline. you domers better wake up LSU wins easily by 14 minimum ND def cannot cover LSU wideouts and if Russel has time he will pick them apart and their d is top rated cannot see ND getting more than 14. and the alum do not play the game the trend of them losing and by double digits going against a team that is strong in their weakness in what is technically a road game. Their losing trend continues. Just trying to help you guys make some money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myhousekey Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 my only concern is that the lsu players can party on bourbon st. whenever they want too, if the irish party up and don't focus, they could get smothered. i think they came to play this time and are motivated. Ironically it was the LSU players breaking curfew. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls06/news/story?id=2718717 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 my reasoning is that the notre dame alum are getting tired of getting spanked in the bowl games every yr. i just think its time. i also think the line was set a wee bit too high, and the late money will all be on notre dame. wake missing that long field goal and fumbling before halftime really cost me some money. i'm not chasing any losses on this game but i am down on notre dame + 8 and moneyline. I have to tell you, I am going completely the other way. I'm all over LSU on this one. ND might have a better coach and QB.....might I say. But coaches need superior athletes to win. And quarterbacks can't complete passes if they spend half the game staring at the ceiling of the Superdome, and the other half running for their lives looking for receivers that are covered play after play. Free money available tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Any of you guys know how many 9+ point road underdogs have ever won in the playoffs? I can't seem to find any historical info on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 The only favorite I'm taking this weekend is the Colts. Just have a feeling that this is a blowout. KC is not the same team on the road as they are at home. I'll take the NY dogs, just because it's a lot of points for rivalry games in both cases, though I expect neither to win outright. Dallas/Seattle I'm staying away from. I might shy towards the UNDER if I was forced to make a play on the game. The only total I like is the KC/IND U51. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 I am leaning towards Indy, Seattle, New England, and the Giants ATS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 you domers better wake up LSU wins easily by 14 minimum ND def cannot cover LSU wideouts and if Russel has time he will pick them apart and their d is top rated cannot see ND getting more than 14. and the alum do not play the game the trend of them losing and by double digits going against a team that is strong in their weakness in what is technically a road game. Their losing trend continues. Just trying to help you guys make some money. Good info here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 (edited) I have to tell you, I am going completely the other way. I'm all over LSU on this one. ND might have a better coach and QB.....might I say. But coaches need superior athletes to win. And quarterbacks can't complete passes if they spend half the game staring at the ceiling of the Superdome, and the other half running for their lives looking for receivers that are covered play after play. Free money available tonight! I felt it. It was like watching a train headed for a deer with its hoof stuck in the track. I tried to stop the massacre. Now I'm sitting pretty for Saturday with the following plays working: Louisville -10 LSU -9 KC +6.5 Phil ML LSU -8.5 Indy ML So, my confidence in LSU last night allowed me to hit the big tweener on Saturday. 6 points of glory. And I have a couple of other minimum play parlays involving the Chiefs ML and another at +7. I may press my luck and try to get in another hedge on the moneyline. Dorey and Cunningham both have the Chiefs getting scalped by the defenseless Colts, while predicting glorious victory for the ordinary Cowboys. But I can't let myself be swayed by that, or the other multitudes of people that aren't giving the Chiefs a snowballs chance in hell. I'm the guy that went 9-1 down the stretch in my column. When it comes to crazy as hell picks, I'm the man. And I'm calling my shot right here right now. (play along, I'm a supersticious bastard sometimes) These teams both have the capacity to blow this game. They are legendary playoff team chokers. But someone has to win. My crystal ball says it will be a shootout of legendary proportion, leading to Vinatieri blowing a game winning field goal. Take the Chiefs. Take the points. My pick Indy -7 Edited January 4, 2007 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 5, 2007 Share Posted January 5, 2007 props to ratsass (gamblin' guru) and slayer. i didn't want to believe. when the irish tied it up at 14 before the half i thought we had a chance. nice effort second half by the university of south bend me over. i had a pretty good run up until the last few days. the week leading up to christmas and after christmas were very good (cashed tickets and won money every day). i might just take it easy here in the playoffs and stash my profits for the yr. who am i f'n kidding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted January 5, 2007 Share Posted January 5, 2007 props to ratsass (gamblin' guru) and slayer. i didn't want to believe. when the irish tied it up at 14 before the half i thought we had a chance. nice effort second half by the university of south bend me over. i had a pretty good run up until the last few days. the week leading up to christmas and after christmas were very good (cashed tickets and won money every day). i might just take it easy here in the playoffs and stash my profits for the yr. who am i f'n kidding. see if I can keep this up only 2 games I would fool with this weekend Indy -7 and Phil -6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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