Azazello1313 Posted January 6, 2007 Share Posted January 6, 2007 As easy as it is to look back over 16 weeks of playing time and throw stones, let's look closer if you honestly think it is an issue. DAL was favored in 12 of 16 games. The times they were not favored: week 1 in Jacksonville (JAX favored 2.5, won by 4; week one games who knows) week 4 in Philadelphia (PHI favored 2, won 38-24 ), week 8 in Carolina (CAR favored by 3, I had CAR win by 1, DAL won by 21) Week 11 vs Indianapolis (IND favored by 1, DAL won by 7, I had IND by 3) By the Vegas SU, DAL should have been 12-4 on the season. They went 9-7. When I selected DAL to win but they lost: Week 1 opener in JAX Week 5 in PHI (Bledsoe throw int for 102 yd TD instead of TD at goal line for the tie) Week 7 vs NYG (Bledsoe throws a 96 yard int for a TD instead of a TD at the goal line again) week 9 at WAS (Vandy had a FG blocked at end of game to win, WAS gets a FG instead to win) Week 13 vs NO (DAL favored by 6.5, crumpled at home) week 16 vs NO( favored by 7, crumpled at home) week 17 vs DET (favored by 13, crumpled at home) So week one was a "whatever" game, Weeks 5 & 7 were both winnable but Bledsoe at the goal line threw two INT TDs which led to his benching, week 9 was a blocked FG and the final three DAL games were all surprises in games favored by at least 6.5 points at home. It is grossly unfair expectations to forsee what happened to Dallas as me being unobjective. If that was the case, then EVERYONE was being unobjective. For the want of three plays, Dallas would have been 12-4 on the season with losses at home at the end of the season. The problem here is that the Cowboys have been playing very inconsistently and very out of character. Bob Cunningham also predicts games on the site and even though he is not a Dallas fan (SD), he too had DAL winning 14 of 16 games if you go back through. It is a much different thing to predict them each week based on everything that week than to look back over an entire season and decide someone is unobjective because they predicted one team to win more than they did. It actually is not that easy and rather unfair to judge. Just out of interest, I went back to 2005 and summing up my DAL predictions I had them winning 10 games when they actually won 9. They tanked in week 17 too at home against STL if you recall or "overall" I would have been dead on. Historically I have usually been harder on DAL than it ended up being. 2006 was a season that had Dallas lose three games that they should have won statistically and I was hardly alone in what I predicted. I was wrong often on DAL because everyone was wrong. I can only suppose it must seem easier than it is, but I find it disingenuous to unfairly accuse me of something and then tack a smilie on the end. i don't know why anyone would think it's "an issue", as i'm not "accusing" you of anything other than being a little bit of a homer like 99.9% of the rest of us. no need to get this defensive about it. i just got a little bit of a kick this season out of checking the game predictions all season and seeing who you had the cowboys blowing out this week. if you wanna defend it by saying the oddsmakers had them winning 12 games to your 14, that's a decent argument...but what were your score predictions like versus the spread? i seriously doubt vegas had them winning those 12 games by an AVERAGE of double-digits like you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted January 6, 2007 Share Posted January 6, 2007 Was it 2004 that DMD predicted Keyshawn Johnson to have a TD reception for Dallas every week? I kid because I love. If people were paying ME for weekly predictions, they wouldn't be teasing me... they'd be suing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 i don't know why anyone would think it's "an issue", as i'm not "accusing" you of anything other than being a little bit of a homer like 99.9% of the rest of us. no need to get this defensive about it. i just got a little bit of a kick this season out of checking the game predictions all season and seeing who you had the cowboys blowing out this week. if you wanna defend it by saying the oddsmakers had them winning 12 games to your 14, that's a decent argument...but what were your score predictions like versus the spread? i seriously doubt vegas had them winning those 12 games by an AVERAGE of double-digits like you did. Since the season is winding down and I have time now... Vegas - Me - Result Jax 2.5 - DAL 7 - JAX 7 DAL 6 - DAL 7 - DAL 17 (WAS game) DAL 9.5 - DAL 14 - DAL 31 (TEN game) PHI 2 - DAL 3 - PHI 14 DAL 13 - DAL 17 - DAL 28 (HOU game) DAL 3 - DAL 7 - NYG 14 CAR 3 - CAR 1 - DAL 21 DAL 3 - DAL 14 - WAS 3 DAL 7 - DAL 4 - DAL 7 (ARZ game) IND 1 - IND 3 - DAL 7 DAL 11 - DAL 21 - DAL 28 (TB game) DAL 4 - DAL 7 - DAL 3 (NYG game) DAL 7 - DAL 9 - NO 25 DAL 3 - DAL 11 - DAL 10 (ATL game) DAL 7 - DAL 10 - PHI 16 DAL 13 - DAL 17 - DET 8 So that the times that I predicted 10+ points DAL 9.5 - DAL 14 - DAL 31 (TEN game) DAL 3 - DAL 14 - WAS 3 DAL 11 - DAL 21 - DAL 28 (TB game) DAL 3 - DAL 11 - DAL 10 (ATL game) DAL 7 - DAL 10 - PHI 16 DAL 13 - DAL 17 - DET 8 So in effect, the only time I predicted more than 10 and the line did not DAL 9.5 - DAL 14 - DAL 31 (TEN) Line was only 0.5 short and I was more correct DAL 3 - DAL 14 - WAS 3 Romo's first lost, DAL rush game surprisingly ineffective unlike wk 2 DAL 3 - DAL 11 - DAL 10 (ATL game) I was more correct DAL 7 - DAL 10 - PHI 16 (I was 3 pts higher than the line but I have to pick higher or lower than the line) So the only ones that I was wrong by going 10+ pts when line was not DAL 3 - DAL 14 - WAS 3 (DAL won 27-10 in wk 2, DAL rush game had 2 less TD than in wk 2, Romo first clunker) DAL 7 - DAL 10 - PHI 16 ( Since I cannot match the line, I went one FG higher) I don't see any bias in that which was not supported by past history and expected dynamics. The Vegas line in those 12 games (6+9.5+3+3+7+11+4+7+7+3+7+13 = 86.5 or 7.2) The only times I was notably ahead of the line (> 4 points ) week 1 - Jax 2.5 - DAL 7 (JAX won by 7) week 2 - DAL 9.5 - DAL 14 (DAL beat TEN by 31) week 8 - DAL 3 - DAL 14 (WAS won by 3) Week 11 - DAL 11 - DAL 21 (DAL beat TB by 28) week 15 - DAL 3 - DAL 11 (DAL beat ATL by 10) Lumping gross season numbers, as inaccurate a picture as that paints, skewed my totals upwards because I went 11 over on the WAS game that was a fluke ending and the 10+ I had on the ATL game (that they won by 28). Recall too that the first loss in JAX had Dallas with a ten point lead before caving in the second half. In the WAS loss, DAL had already beaten them by 17 points six games previous and it was the first time that Romo faltered plus the game ended on that. I am also forced to predict games above or below the line or people get pissed, so I usually end up at least 1 FG (3 pts) on either side or more. So no, I still don't see what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted January 6, 2007 Share Posted January 6, 2007 The lady doth protest too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted January 6, 2007 Share Posted January 6, 2007 (edited) AZ has done it now ... he has invoked DMD the statistician. Edited January 6, 2007 by Grits and Shins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 The lady doth protest too much. Okay, so that made me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted January 6, 2007 Share Posted January 6, 2007 (edited) Okay, so that made me laugh :whew: See, if I'd said that to Whitney, I'd be trading off reacharounds with spain in the Sin Bin. Edited January 6, 2007 by Chavez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 you predicted a 9-7 team to win 14 games by an average of 11 points. parse that out any way you want. thanks for digging out the difference versus vegas...though i'm not sure it shows what you think it shows... QUOTE Vegas - DMD - the difference (i.e., the DMD Dallas premium over Vegas) Jax 2.5 - DAL 7 - 9.5 DAL 6 - DAL 7 - 1 DAL 9.5 - DAL 14 - 4.5 PHI 2 - DAL 3 - 5 DAL 13 - DAL 17 - 4 DAL 3 - DAL 7 - 4 CAR 3 - CAR 1 - (-2) DAL 3 - DAL 14 - 11 DAL 7 - DAL 4 - (-3) IND 1 - IND 3 - (-2) DAL 11 - DAL 21 - 10 DAL 4 - DAL 7 - 3 DAL 7 - DAL 9 - 2 DAL 3 - DAL 11 - 8 DAL 7 - DAL 10 - 3 DAL 13 - DAL 17 - 4 so not only did you pick them to win 14 times, but you in essense picked them against the spread 13 out of 16 times as well. you gave them an average of 4 points per week over vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted January 6, 2007 Share Posted January 6, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 so not only did you pick them to win 14 times, but you in essense picked them against the spread 13 out of 16 times as well. you gave them an average of 4 points per week over vegas. As I mentioned, I cannot predict games that match the lines or people get bent out of shape so I am forced often to use the extra field goal to make the differentiation. Of the 5 times I was ahead of the line by more than 4 points to bring the meaningless average up, I was correct 3 of 5 times. Let's see what non-Cowboys fan Cunningham thought The only times I was notably ahead of the line (> 4 points ) week 1 - Jax 2.5 - DAL 7 (Bob had DAL by 10) JAX won by 7 week 2 - DAL 9.5 - DAL 14 (Bob had DAL by 3) DAL won by 31 week 8 - DAL 3 - DAL 14 (Bob had WAS by 3) WAS won by 3 Week 11 - DAL 11 - DAL 21 (Bob had DAL by 14) DAL won by 28 week 15 - DAL 3 - DAL 11 (Bob had DAL by 6) DAL won by 10 Still don't see it and now I am tired of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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