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Divisional Weekend and BCS Championship Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

 

My selections have been doing quite well. Picked proper sides on 3 of the 4 games and passed on the NYJ/NE game. Also won a teaser, and did not have a single losing pick this weekend, so another very profitable weekend.

 

That makes 12 winning days and 1 losing day out of the last 13, and 9 straight primetime matchups won.

 

Onto this next week - I will post betting % on tonight's BCS game next.

 

Let's all have a winning week and keep making $.

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Current spread OSU -7

 

157,492 bets placed:

 

ATS:

 

OSU 63%

UF 37%

 

ML:

 

OSU 60%

UF 40%

 

 

Those numbers certainly aren't comforting to my way of thinking. Went with the dog Texas last year and hit nicely, but I can't convince myself to go with the dog in this one. Looks like about a 10 point game in OSU's favor in my opinion. I'm not convinced Florida is even the second, or third, best team in the BCS.

 

But then again, betting on a game between two teams that haven't played snap in almost 2 months is anything but an exact science. Tough game. I generally like to go against the public landslide in games with this much build up. But my brain won't allow me to believe that Ohio St won't get it done here.

 

I am also having spasms over the Chargers match-up with the Pats. The Pats are a 4.5 underdog. Overall, I think we can agree. The Chargers are simply the better team here. They played a tougher schedule. They have two of the most dominate players in the game at their positions. They should clearly win this game. But the bats in my head are already flying:

 

Brady (1 playoff loss) v Rivers (no playoff experience)

Belichick (finds a way to win even with inferior talent) v Chokenheimer (legendary playoff choker even when his team is clearly more talented)

 

I probably won't bet on this game at all. But if I were, I would feel not so great about laying 4.5 with the Chargers.

 

Just a few early thoughts.

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I'm on OSU -7 (bought the half pt). Matchup up and down just too favorable.

 

Right now, going AFC favs and NFC dogs. Agree with Sgt that all 4 dogs covering wouldn't be a shock.

 

 

About this time of the season I really start liking the favorites myself. Even though last year we saw the wild card Steelers pull a few. Maybe someone can dig up some stats for seeing how many Superbowl winners covered the spreads thruout their playoff and the superbowl run?

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nearly 85% of over/under bets coming in on the over.

 

 

I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.

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You can't spell BCS without BS, huh?

 

I have a lot of NFL plays I like this weekend.

 

Indianapolis vs. Baltimore (-4 / 41)

 

I am all over the Ravens on this one. I expect a comfortable 28-13 type win. Peyton did not play a particularly strong game on Saturday, and the Colts will not have the ease of running the football the way they did vs. the Chiefs. Oh yeah, the Colts have dropped their last 4 on the road.

Hot/Cold trends on covers.com go 8-1 in favor of Ravens (and also 10-1 in favor of the under, but I'm ignoring that for now).

 

PICK: Baltimore -4

 

Philadelphia vs. New Orleans (-5 / 48)

 

I liked the gritty victory the Eagles eeked out yesterday, despite the fact it was against the Giants. Westbrook had a coming out party, and Reggie Brown looked like an ace WR at times. I do not like the fact the Saints have lost 4 of their last 5 home games, and two others this season that were won by just 3 points (including a Week 6 matchup with the Iggs). It will be close and it won't be a shootout.

 

PICK: Philadelphia +5 / UNDER 48

 

Seattle vs. Chicago (-9.5 / 37)

 

The Bears have had a really great season. In many ways they remind me of last season's Seahawks squad, given that they were clearly the best team in the NFC all season long, but come playoff time, the haters were coming out from all sides to poke at their weaknesses. If the Bears win a playoff game for the first time since 1994, the doubting will cease, especially if it's an emphatic stomping of the defending conference champs. That said, Seattle won in the most improbable fashion on Saturday night and you can't fart around with karma in these circumstances. Chicago wins, in a higher scoring affair than expected, say 24-20.

 

PICK: Seattle +9.5 / OVER 37

 

New England vs. San Diego (-5 / 46.5)

 

The unfortunate thing about the AFC is that the three best teams in football play in the conference and obviously all of them can't get into the Championship game. The fortunate thing is that we, as fans of the game, get two amazing matchups on consecutive weeks. This is the first one. I like the Patriots, I can't statistically justify it, in no way whatsoever, other than the 'dog is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two. Something about this Chargers team just doesn't sell me. I'm not sure if it's Marty's track record, Rivers' inexperience, their propensity to keep games close, or what. The Patriots are an experienced club that plays very well on the road. I don't pick the Ravens over the Chargers in San Diego if they play this weekend, but I do like the Pats and the points, and I'll go outright on the upset, 26-20.

 

PICK: New England +5

Edited by godtomsatan
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The sharps are supposedly on Florida in this game tonight. Is that how you are going Dre? Don't keep us in suspense. Let's have it.

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The sharps are supposedly on Florida in this game tonight. Is that how you are going Dre? Don't keep us in suspense. Let's have it.

 

I am sorry for not seeing this before the game. I did not bet on the game last night, but yes you were correct. Several respected collegues of mine were heavy on Fla, both at +7 or at +7.5. So it did not suprise me one bit that OSU was upset.

 

Listening to an AM talk show this morning, it is simply astonishing how many people have no clue about Vegas. One host (who is in fact instructing a course on sports betting at some week long Super Bowl "getaway" in barbados I think) said "Please call and tell me why the linesmakers and I got the game so wrong last night".

 

I decided to let them stay ignorant. Let's see... the final numbers were:

 

237,854 bets

 

ATS

OSU: 56%

UF: 44%

 

ML

OSU: 63%

UF: 37%

 

You tell me how the linesmakers got the game wrong? They cleaned up is what they did.

 

And they didn't have to do much work, either. You have 2 months of the media pumping OSU, Heisman Trophy Winner, defeated UM in a huge game. Then you have UF w/ Chris Leak. Media hyped mismatch, some said UF didn't even belong in the game.

 

The line opened at -7.5. It closed at -7. You tell me what happened there. W/ almost twice the money coming in on OSU, the line drops? The top team in the land, OSU, which should win by 2 TDs or more, and I only have to lay 1 TD and I push? Give me OSU. And that is what happened. Public grabbed up OSU and UF skated.

 

Anyhow, I didn't see your post before the game or I could have shared that insight. It means nothing now, but as I said, several guys whose opinions I respect were on UF.

 

I look at line movement sometimes, especially at a really smart book like Pinny. For instance on Sunday AM they had the Philly line at -7. Philly was getting more money bet on their side. As you know, public money was ALL OVER NYJ in the early game. As NYJ start to go down in that game, Pinny drops the line for Philly to -6.5. At that moment I decided to play NYG. Why? I already had the game capped closer than the spread, but liked Philly initially. However I knew there was little value w/ Philly. But the real reason is below:

 

The Sunday afternoon game in January, for the NFL, the equivalent of a Sunday or Monday night game. This is because that is the final opportunity for NFL bettors to make money for the week. Anything they were up, they may roll onto that play. Any thing they were down they may chase on that play. Pinny was smart - after public get mauled by taking an underdog NYJ team. The public does not like taking the dog, and they were upset they put their money on the wrong side. They want to chase and now they see that they don't even need to lay a TD to get the favorite, Philly, against a disorganized NYG team w/ no leadership and no chance on the road. That's when I took NYG.

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Wanted to add this after glancing at the thread regarding many liking all road dogs.

 

Indy/Balt

ATS:

60% Ind

40% Bal

ML:

78% Ind

22% Bal

 

Phi/NO

ATS:

45% Phi

55% NO

ML:

59% Phi

41% NO

 

Sea/Chi

ATS:

69% Sea

32% Chi

ML:

99% Sea

1% Chi

 

NE/SD

ATS:

67% NE

33% SD

ML:

71% NE

29% SD

 

The large majority in 3 games are on the road dog. The only game where there is a split is NO/PHI.

 

And and intersting thing to note on that game as well:

 

All 3 other games have # of bets of 25,000 or more. Phi/NO has less than 5,000 thus far!

 

Everyone must be looking to make their $ on the other games, and are most likely scared w/ the "Team of Destiny" going up against the team on an extreme hot streak.

 

Last week the public was on Indy and Dallas and won. On Sunday they were on NYJ and Phi and lost. While simply fading the public is not the golden road to riches, putting your $ on Sea ML for instance, where 99% of the ML bets have been placed, is probably not the wisest move you could make.

 

I have some game notes that I will be posting on the Bal/Ind game soon. I already have Bal -3. After crunching the #s and capping this game, it is not going to be a blowout. It will be close, and it will be tough. It is not my top play this week, and if I had to do it again I may have not played it for as much as I did. But at any rate, I'll share more in my preview.

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Having buyers remorse on the Baltimore bet already? I might press it some more if the public money keeps coming in on Indy. The Colts have been a cash cow for the books in the playoffs. Looks like the tradition will continue.

 

Shhh, it's the Ravens, the best team nobody is talking about.

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I like OSU to cover the 7

 

And I think every Dog in the Pros has a legit chance to cover their respective spread.

 

 

I thought you were on record as saying the Eagles have no chance this weekend?

 

Lemme get this straight...they have no chance to win, but will keep the game within 5 points to cover the spread???

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Just got screwed by Pinny - this AM they have posted on their homepage:

 

Effective Immediately...

 

After careful consideration, Pinnacle Sports have chosen to voluntarily exit the U.S. market. Accordingly, wagers will no longer be accepted from clients within the U.S. as of Thursday, January 11, 2007.

 

Those clients who are affected will be required to withdraw their balances using the Cashier of their account. We assure all our clients your balances are available and Pinnacle will continue providing our international clients our same great value.

 

and upon logging on:

 

Dear Pinnacle Sports' Client,

 

Please note that any wagers currently pending in your account will be honored by Pinnacle Sports. As your wagers are graded, you may use the Cashier of your account to request any balance due.

 

You may, of course, use your Cashier now to request a withdrawal for your current balance.

 

Regards,

 

Customer Service Department

 

Pinnacle Sports

 

I will have to withdraw my funds, leave my pending bets there, and then withdraw my winnings after this weekend again.

 

Pinnacle said in the interview:

 

"Fortunately, 35-40% of our current gambling business is non US driven, and perhaps more importantly, we are experiencing stronger growth in Europe and Asia, than we are in the United States."

 

So this will be a hit to their market for sure, I wonder how big things are getting in Asia. I can't believe this came right during Playoff wagering and prior to the SuperBowl. Something is fishy, as there was no hint to it at all that Pinny would be doing this.

 

The rumor right now is (from another site):

 

 

From what I have been told - Pinnacle went wrong by using "agents" which many of you have heard also led to the downfall of some other books.According to my sources - the US Gov had Pinnacle by the balls over these agents and Pinnacle was told to just leave the US market to avoid what could of happened if they didn't.

 

 

Black Thursday in the Gambling world here domestically and I am sure it will have ripple effects across every single other online outlet. Sad, sad day...

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Just got screwed by Pinny - this AM they have posted on their homepage:

 

 

 

and upon logging on:

 

 

 

I will have to withdraw my funds, leave my pending bets there, and then withdraw my winnings after this weekend again.

 

Pinnacle said in the interview:

 

"Fortunately, 35-40% of our current gambling business is non US driven, and perhaps more importantly, we are experiencing stronger growth in Europe and Asia, than we are in the United States."

 

So this will be a hit to their market for sure, I wonder how big things are getting in Asia. I can't believe this came right during Playoff wagering and prior to the SuperBowl. Something is fishy, as there was no hint to it at all that Pinny would be doing this.

 

The rumor right now is (from another site):

 

 

From what I have been told - Pinnacle went wrong by using "agents" which many of you have heard also led to the downfall of some other books.According to my sources - the US Gov had Pinnacle by the balls over these agents and Pinnacle was told to just leave the US market to avoid what could of happened if they didn't.

 

 

Black Thursday in the Gambling world here domestically and I am sure it will have ripple effects across every single other online outlet. Sad, sad day...

 

 

 

Ahh yes, the Nanny State at work once again... :D

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Heard about this - unbelievable how this stuff is trickling down. I still can't believe that none of the Vegas congloms (Harrahs/Wynn/whoever) haven't pushed enough (read "put enough money in people's pockets") to get online in the US. I have to think it's coming in the next 5 years....

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Heard about this - unbelievable how this stuff is trickling down. I still can't believe that none of the Vegas congloms (Harrahs/Wynn/whoever) haven't pushed enough (read "put enough money in people's pockets") to get online in the US. I have to think it's coming in the next 5 years....

 

 

they are already doing the automated gambling in some casino's. you can gamble (play video poker, black jack, etc.) from anywhere on the property with a handheld device. hey, i'm taking dump, but i still want action. wait, hold on, i have to wipe my ass, wooohooo.....21 i win!

 

 

somethings got to give with this country. don't get me wrong, i love america. why are we so repressed with our gambling liberties??

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somethings got to give with this country. don't get me wrong, i love america. why are we so repressed with our gambling liberties??

 

 

The Government was more than willing to "suppress" off shore gambling, and it used the usual arguments; it's unethical, it corrupts, blah blah blah. I think the TRUE reason is the fact that they couldn't TAX it.

 

I'm thinking that as more and more revenue is needed (since neither party is willing to stop spending) eventually on-line gambling may be legalized in th US...so the Government CAN tax it. There will be some public opinion to overcome, but I can see it happening.

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The Government was more than willing to "suppress" off shore gambling, and it used the usual arguments; it's unethical, it corrupts, blah blah blah. I think the TRUE reason is the fact that they couldn't TAX it.

 

I'm thinking that as more and more revenue is needed (since neither party is willing to stop spending) eventually on-line gambling may be legalized in th US...so the Government CAN tax it. There will be some public opinion to overcome, but I can see it happening.

 

 

You got it.

 

somethings got to give with this country. don't get me wrong, i love america. why are we so repressed with our gambling liberties??

 

 

I agree and isn't it a shame that we can't even question the government anymore with a disclaimer. Ugh...

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Heard about this - unbelievable how this stuff is trickling down. I still can't believe that none of the Vegas congloms (Harrahs/Wynn/whoever) haven't pushed enough (read "put enough money in people's pockets") to get online in the US. I have to think it's coming in the next 5 years....

 

 

Those conglomerates are exactly the ones who have been putting money in the right pockets to STOP online gambling. That seems to be their focus, rather than finding a way to cash in themselves.

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Those conglomerates are exactly the ones who have been putting money in the right pockets to STOP online gambling. That seems to be their focus, rather than finding a way to cash in themselves.

 

 

I was going to echo this. The main lobby AGAINST online gambling is the sanctioned corporate interests in the United States. With all the $$$ they dump into Vegas and Indian casinos throughout this country, it is their biggest direct competition.

 

This totally blows as Pinnacle is about as solid a site as there is for this kind of stuff.

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