xMRogers Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 Yea, it's akin to recording industry in a way. I do know that those guys are prepared for when/if they lose their battle as I personally knew a guy who was hired by harrah's years ago to help develop the greatest online casino ever. Lost touch with him, so not sure if he's still there and if that's still ongoing, but they were going to be ready to turn the lights on the day it was approved. I just find it ridiculous - no gambling....unless your in Vegas, or AC..or reno/tahoe..or you know, and Indian reservation....or lowstakes at a dogtrack.... c'mon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 Yes, the Big corporate gaming interests in this country were behind the push! The politicians took the "contributions" and passed this legislation to "save us from ourselves"; since they couldn't tax it, there was no reason for the politicians to say no. However, it can't stop there, clearly someday the gaming interests in America hope for legal on-line gaming in the USA. They get the action and the government gets to tax it, both sides profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 Yes, the Big corporate gaming interests in this country were behind the push! The politicians took the "contributions" and passed this legislation to "save us from ourselves"; since they couldn't tax it, there was no reason for the politicians to say no. However, it can't stop there, clearly someday the gaming interests in America hope for legal on-line gaming in the USA. They get the action and the government gets to tax it, both sides profit. Except someone will want to regulate it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 The betting mantra for divisional round playoff games through the years has been take the favorite and cash your ticket. Recently the home faves have not been that great in his round. But if you throw out a couple of fluke seasons, I believe they are up around 80% since the early nineties. Games in this round are usually not close. The margins of victory in this round tend to be around two touchdowns. So if you are betting the underdogs, hoping the points will save you, the odds are against it historically. Either the underdog team will win decisively, or lose decisively. But the interesting part is that we have 4 teams with lot's of recent playoff experience, and have been through the gauntlet many times. The home teams are all the "new guard" so to speak. Chances are at least one of them will choke. Much like my predictions for last week. I am generally an underdog guy, and the spreads look awful tempting to people that like to bet that way. I don't often advocate this kind of play, but one might be well served to take some 10 point 3 team teasers this weekend. If I am getting The Eagles +15, Pats +15, Indy +13.5, I'm feeling pretty comfortable. On the other side of the coin I would feel even better about Saints +5, Chargers +5, Ravens +6.5. That's a long way to go to make a little, but considering the uncertainty I see in this weekends games, it might be the safest way to play. The Colts are being propped up by last weeks performance at home against the Chiefs. The money is coming in on the underdog plus the points. People that may have been skeptical before last week are taking a second look at the Colts. Oh yeah, that is tempting. Take that Colts high powered offense, and that suddenly resurgent defense, and tack on 3.5 points and it is money in the bank. Right? Wrong. The Colts throttling of the Chiefs was the perfect scenario to keep this line comfortable for Ravens bettors. There are plenty of statistics that give the Ravens a slight edge in this game. But the clincher for me is the human factor. Manning, January, on the road, on grass, against the most high pressure defense in the league. A raucous crowd. Yeah, it's that time again. Peyton will be shaking his head as he comes off the field all day Saturday. The Ravens are suffering from a lack of respect in this spot, from the betting public and the books. The Colts have taken choking in the playoffs to an art form. And despite the lopsided statistics from last weeks game, they failed to put away the hapless Chiefs time after time. They will not have that luxury this week and it's bye bye Colts again. I figure the Ravens D/ST should be good for a couple of scores. And McNair has accomplished something Manning has not, and that is win in January and take his team to a championship. I am asking myself, why is the spread only 3.5, while the money continues to come in heavier on the Colts. This is my favorite play of the weekend. I'm on the right side of the public (the opposite side) so I feel good about this one. Ravens -3.5 I have struggled with the Eagles/Saints match-up. Here we are writing off the team we all have tried to write off since McNabb went down. Isn't it foolish to bet against them now? I don't feel great about it. But that's the way I have to go. The Eagles have had a great run, but I just don't think they can contain this offense, and overcome the frenzied crowd. These dome games can get away from visiting teams real quick if the home team busts out to an early lead. The Saints will no doubt try to do just that, and Peyton has had two weeks to devise a plan. And that is the key to this game in my estimation. An early Saints lead probably puts it away. But if they let the Eagles hang around and stay within a score, it would seem likely to me that the Eagles could pull off yet another improbable victory. I like the Eagles. I have rooted for the Eagles. I have won money on the Eagles. But I just don't feel it happening for them this week. That being said, the only bets I am interested in this game would be either a Phil ML or what I have, which is the Saints ML as part of a parley. I doubt that the 5 points will help you if the Eagles end up losing, so if you really think they can hang, I would go ML.....and pray. I'm not thrilled about this pick, because it is not a great value play, but I think the Saints will win, so I will go this way. Grudgingly. Saints -5 Seattle is in the toughest spot of any of the teams playing this week. The 8.5 point spread looks tempting, but you are bucking some serious odds if you lay money on the Seahawks. Even if you could put out of your mind, the embarrassing loss the undermanned Seahawks suffered to the Bears early in the season, there are still many mountains to climb to hope for a Seattle cover. Statistically the Bears are superior to the Seahawks both offensively and defensively, and that is a clear indication of how this game should go. Then if you consider that Shaun Alexander just isn't right, Hasselbeck is of questionable health and is throwing interceptions. And they have guys off the street playing the secondary. It is hard to imagine Seattle pulling the upset here. But then again, it was hard to imagine the last 3 Bears choke jobs in January at home. But the Seahawks do have a chance. Their only salvation in this game may rest upon our favorite New Years Eve partier, Rex Grossman. He is the wild card in the whole deal. If Seattle can blitz, get some turnovers out of Rex, they could make a game of it. Teams that win the turnover battle win almost always. Unfortunately the Seahawks fall short in this category as well coming into the playoffs -9 in turnovers to the Bears +8. And these teams played a lot of similar opponents so statistical evidence that points to the Bears in this game is particularly well founded. And the Bears trouncing of the Seahawks earlier this season could easily be repeated. But it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that the Bears implode. We have all seen it before. The Seahawks have all the playoff experience on their side. But they look like a tired and beat up champion to me at this point. I don't think they have enough on either side of the ball to win the game, despite all the intangibles in their favor. The game is the Bears to lose, and if they can hold onto the ball there is little chance Seattle beats them. I will be surprised if the Bears don't cover the spread in this game, however it is hard to have a lot of faith in them after their previous meltdowns in this round of the playoffs. But they are playing against a team that got bounced down the stretch by the Cardinals and the 49ers, and deserved to lose to Dallas last week. As little faith as I have in Rex Grossman and Chicago in the Divisional round, I have even less for Seattle. Last week was the last gasp. I'm afraid the tank is empty. I think the Bears pop their balloon this week, and reveal to the world just how average they are. I do not love this bet. I hate laying more than a touchdown. But I think is the right bet in this spot. Bears -8.5 The Chargers / Pats game I have already mentioned. The money keeps coming in for the Chargers, and I keep waiting to see how high it will go before I buy in for the Patriots. I know the Chargers should roll in this game. But I'll take Brady and Belichick and the points. I am worn out betting on Marty and his amazing bad luck in the playoffs, and I'm similarly worn out betting against Brady. This is another game that just screams out the answer to you, but some people fail to see it. I don't know how it is going to happen. It makes no sense. I know the Chargers should win this game 31-13. I can easily envision them dominating the Patriots on both sides of the ball. They should. But they won't. I want to see the Chargers win. I want to see them next week against the Ravens. But I don't get what I want. I have come to accept that now. Logic tells me the Chargers rip them a new one, but logic hasn't worked for me betting against the Patriots in the past. I give in. It's time for a changing of the guard in the AFC and if my pick doesn't do in the Patriots I don't know what will. Patriots +5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 Except someone will want to regulate it.... The governement will be more than happy to oblige! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 Just got screwed by Pinny - this AM they have posted on their homepage: and upon logging on: I will have to withdraw my funds, leave my pending bets there, and then withdraw my winnings after this weekend again. Pinnacle said in the interview: "Fortunately, 35-40% of our current gambling business is non US driven, and perhaps more importantly, we are experiencing stronger growth in Europe and Asia, than we are in the United States." So this will be a hit to their market for sure, I wonder how big things are getting in Asia. I can't believe this came right during Playoff wagering and prior to the SuperBowl. Something is fishy, as there was no hint to it at all that Pinny would be doing this. The rumor right now is (from another site): From what I have been told - Pinnacle went wrong by using "agents" which many of you have heard also led to the downfall of some other books.According to my sources - the US Gov had Pinnacle by the balls over these agents and Pinnacle was told to just leave the US market to avoid what could of happened if they didn't. Black Thursday in the Gambling world here domestically and I am sure it will have ripple effects across every single other online outlet. Sad, sad day... And I only had one bet in for this weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 And I only had one bet in for this weekend! Why couldn't that have happened to me last week..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 great analysis ratsass......as always. thanks. i'm trying to focus on the over/unders for the games and i'll see if i can come up with a decent/strong play or two. i am on the bears....big surprise....but i think the playoff experience they gained last yr and the week off will contribute to a seahawks pasting. we'll see. its hard for me not to like all the teams that had the week off. i know its not glamourous, but sometimes you gotta lay some cash down and take favorites moneyline. i'm not saying all of them, but the advantage of home field and week off is hugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Excellent comments on the sports gambling industry guys. Here is more on the situation: Pinnacle Sports Pulls Out of US Market PinnacleSports.com, one of the industry's largest online sports betting operations, has voluntarily pulled out of the US market. 40% of their business is believed to be European and Asian based.It is not known why Pinnacle pulled out, however, it should be pointed out that despite their solid online business, developed through precision European marketing and its wide reach among professional sports bettors, Pinnacle had not gone online until after 2000. They were one of the last sportsbooks operating offshore to do so (along with Royal Sports and Bowmans, the later of which also announced last month they would no longer be taking on US clients).Pinnacle apparently realized they had enough of the European market share that accepting bets from the US was no longer necessary for them to stay in business. However, pulling from the US will hurt their growth and bottom line significantly during the short haul.Affiliates in particular will be seriously hurt by this announcement. Many affiliates rely solely on PinnacleSports due to their excellent customer conversion ration (Pinnacle had been offering -104 reduced lines).For some of the more established affiliates, Pinnacle was known to pay out six figure commissions annually. The following message appeared on the PinnacleSports.com website Thursday morning:Effective Immediately...After careful consideration, Pinnacle Sports have chosen to voluntarily exit the U.S. market. Accordingly, wagers will no longer be accepted from clients within the U.S. as of Thursday, January 11, 2007.Those clients who are affected will be required to withdraw their balances using the Cashier of their account. We assure all our clients your balances are available and Pinnacle will continue providing our international clients our same great value. Of primary concern to some offshore bookmakers conducting business within the US in recent days is that some individuals connected with a major gambling sting two months ago in Queens, New York, may be providing authorities with information about other gambling firm owners.Two days ago, Heritage Sports - a much smaller "credit based" business out of Costa Rica - announced it too would stop accepting wagers from US citizens. The owner of Heritage was once a partner in PinnacleSports.PinnacleSports.com is located out of Curacao, however, some of the gambling firm's larger customers were believed to have been caught up in the recent gambling "sting" out of New York City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Rat - great look at the games. I like several of your picks. I had completed my analysis of the Bal/Ind game last night. I was going to post it this AM, but the Pinny news took most of my time today to digest and investigate my options. I'll post the writeup now. A bit longer than usual, and more stats than usual. So if you don't have about 10 minutes, you might as well skip it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 Rat - great look at the games. I like several of your picks. I had completed my analysis of the Bal/Ind game last night. I was going to post it this AM, but the Pinny news took most of my time today to digest and investigate my options. I'll post the writeup now. A bit longer than usual, and more stats than usual. So if you don't have about 10 minutes, you might as well skip it! Eh, I was going to waste 10 minutes today anyway, er' I mean ten more minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Indy at Balt Rushing: Rush D: On the road, Indy is day and night. As I said last week, at home Indy recently allowed teams who averaged 4.1 ypr to run for 4.8 ypr. In their last 3 road games, Indy allowed teams who average only 4.6 ypr to run for 6.6 ypr. That difference is huge. We know Balt has the #2 rush D in the land, but how have they done recently? In their L3 home games they have held opponents who gain 3.8 ypr to only 3.1 ypr. Quite solid, as they have been all season long. Rush O: Both teams are not the best at running the football. While Indy is solid at home, running for 4.4 ypr recently, on the road in their L3 they only are running for 3.7 ypr vs. opponents who allow 4.2 ypr. Baltimore (remarkably) has the exact same rushing numbers as Indy. In their L3 at home, they are running for 3.7 ypr vs. opponents who allow 4.2 ypr. We know Indy stepped up big time against KC. It made some of us quite a bit of money. But there are several factors that occured, such as hard headed Herm determined to establish the run, therefore keeping in Gonzo to block and having Trent throw short passes which were either off target or dropped. KC just never got into the game. So will Balt run for 6.6 ypr against Indy (L3 road game avg)? Probably not, as Baltimore has struggled to establish the run (see above). Those that think Jamal Lewis is still a weapon to be feared are deceiving themselves. I keep reading people write that Baltimore has a "Power Running Game". They don't. Jamal is servicable but that is it. He is averaging only 3.6 ypr. What is worse, Balt is running for less ypr than what their opponents allow on avg. That is not a good sign. Baltimore is #24th in the league in power running, #24th in the league in runs of 10+yards, and 27th in the league in % of runs that are stuffed at the line of scrimmage. That said, Balt will will fare much better than the 2.6 ypr which Indy allowed to KC. Billick will use decent amounts of Mike Anderson (4.7 ypr) and Musa Smith (4.3 ypr) to keep his RBs fresh, and Balt will have a much better gameplan courtesy of Billick than KC had. Passing: It is no secret that Indy would rather throw than run, especially on the road. In their L3 road games, they have thrown for 42 first downs and only ran for 17. When they have the lead, they throw. When they are behind, they throw. Manning has been incredible, even in tough situations. His passer rating is even better when Indy is losing than it is when they are winning. He completes 7% more passes when his team is behind rather than when ahead. He has a better rating on 3rd down than any other down. He is focused and knows how to get the job done. Indy is #2 in the league in completion %. But, Baltimore's D is #1 in the league in completion %. Peyton has continued to improve and has their offense clicking very effeciently right now. They hit many more short passes and don't go deep quite as often as in years past. Last year SD and Pit beat Indy by bringing pressure and overwhelming the OLine. This year Indy has allowed even fewer sacks than last year (20 last year): only 15 in the regular season - best in the NFL. They dropped this number by running more and using the short passing game, keeping Manning from long drops in the pocket, and giving him quicker reads. Meanwhile Baltimore is #2 in defensive sacks, recording 60 on the year. Baltimore isn't slouching on their passing game, though it is not nearly as good as Indy's. As opposed to years past, they are 6th in the league in completion % and are right behind Indy in # of sacks allowed w/ only 17 on the season. But unlike the tough D that Manning will be facing, Indy doesn't have nearly a strong a defense. Indy's D is #30 in the league in completion %. Indy is #30 in the league in defensive sacks. All this talk I hear on ESPN about Dungy having built his D-Line specifically to stop McNair when he was w/ Ten? If they haven't sacked the rest of the QBs they have faced this year, why will they suddenly start sacking McNair all afternoon? In their last 3 road games Indy has recorded 1 TOTAL sack. How many sacks has Balt allowed in their last 3 home games? 1 TOTAL sack. Scoring: Baltimore is 3rd best in the league in Margin of Victory at 9.2 avg per game. Since Billick has taken over playcalling, they have won 9 out of 10 games. Of those 9 victories, only 1 was by fewer than 6 points (the comeback victory in Ten). The only concern for Ravens backers is they have only faced 1 playoff caliber team since October, and that was KC. Indy has faced NE, Dallas, Philly and KC. Indy has averaged 19 points scored and 30 points allowed in their L3 road games. The teams they faced on the year scored 20ppg, so Indy has allowed them to score +10 ppg over their average. Pretty terrible. Of course that includes that game at Jax (44 points allowed). Even if we take away the game @ Jax and substitute the game @ Dallas, Indy allowed those teams a +9 ppg over their avg. And Indy's offense only putting up 19ppg? That was -4 ppg vs. what the teams they faced allowed on average. Looking only at the L3 home games for Baltimore, they have averaged 24 points scored and 8 points allowed. Which equates to Balt scoring +4 ppg more than what the defenses allowed, and holding their opponents to -11 ppg fewer than their opponents averaged on the season. I think the L3 numbers are significant enough and hold the most weight. But even if we want to look at the entire season: Baltimore at home they average 24 points scored and 12 points allowed. This was against teams who, on average, allowed 20 ppg and scored 20 ppg. That is good for +4 in offense and -8 in defense (negative in D is good). On the road, Indy averages 24 points scored and 27 points allowed. And this was against teams who, on average, allowed 20 ppg and scored 22 ppg. So a +4 in offense, same as Balt, but a +3 in defense, 11 ppg worse than Balt. So an overwhelming advantage for Balt at home. They have the fewest ppg allowed in the NFL. And their home avg of 24ppg is good for 7th highest in the league. Overall: We are going to see the "fun side" of the matchup when Indy is on offense and Balt is on D, and the "plodding side" when Balt has the ball. As good as Balt's D is, Indy's offense is just as good. Peyton has done extremely well in big games on the road. So it is very suprising to see him close out the season 0-4 on the road, with 3 of those losses coming against non-playoff teams. For those who want to say that Indy went into NE and Den and beat both teams, and this is why they will be able to go into Balt and beat them, I beg to disagree. In both games, Indy keyed in on a CB matchups they wanted to exploit. At NE, they threw 29 times to Wayne/Harrison, and 0 times to any other WR. 10 other passes were thrown, 9 to TEs and 1 to a RB. Brady threw 4 picks (2 were tipped), and Indy converted 2 of the Ints into 10 points. In Den, we all know what happened there - Manning threw away from Champ all night, throwing almost twice as many passes (and 3TDs) to Wayne as to any other receiver, going against Darrent Williams (RIP). I don't see the same weakness w/ Balt's D in this spot. I think we know that Wayne will match up w/ Rolle and will get a decent # of balls thrown his way. Rolle has been exposed some this year, and chances are Saturday will be no different. But will that be the difference in this game that gets the win for Indy? I don't believe so, but of course, time will tell. The part about the Ravens I am not as confident in is their running game. I didn't realize, until I studied, how poor their running game really has been performing, and that includes both their O-Line and Jamal Lewis. And anytime you face Manning it is something to be a little concerned about. But I took Balt when the line first came out and have them at -3. The most likely scenario I come up with is a 6-7 point victory for the Ravens. During the regular season, if I only envisioned 3-4 points of value in a team (difference between the line and the final result) I would not be betting that game. But this is the playoffs, and the lines released are going to be tighter as expected. I like the fact that the public just witnessed a dominant performance by Indy's usually undominant D and has laid early $ w/ the road team. The fact that Indy had a huge win over KC helped keep this line down. In the most heavily bet game of the weekend thus far, the public is LOVING Indy, making them a heavily bet road dog. It's very early in the week, but right now you have 60% ATS and 77% ML on Indy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 Indy at Balt I like the fact that the public just witnessed a dominant performance by Indy's usually undominant D and has laid early $ w/ the road team. The fact that Indy had a huge win over KC helped keep this line down. In the most heavily bet game of the weekend thus far, the public is LOVING Indy, making them a heavily bet road dog. It's very early in the week, but right now you have 60% ATS and 77% ML on Indy. The public just can't get their fill of getting blasted by the Colts in the playoffs. An insatiable desire to donate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 I read this and pretty much agree w/ Dungy on it... this plan seems ridiculous by Rex Ryan, as well as being impossible to execute: http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti...4/1100/SPORTS03 They developed a game plan for their fans. In fact, coach Brian Billick and defensive coordinator Rex Ryan held a symposium Tuesday in Creative Cheering 101. Here was Professor Ryan: "Obviously with the way Indy is, they're pretty good about picking up your signals -- some people call it something else,'' he said. ". . . So we have to have our system in place. If the crowd can just hold on for about five seconds when they get to the line, just kind of hang in there for five seconds, that way we can communicate with ourselves on defense. . . . That's all we need, and then let 'er have it. Let those people have it.'' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 Dungy can have his five seconds per play, or ten minutes, or whatever...the Colts are not going to win this game Made a nice little bit of change on the Memphis game last night and used it to make my first bet for the weekend; parlayed the Ravens and the Bears on the ML Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Wanted to hit on 2 myths: The first is: Indy was poor during the end of the regular season due to defensive injuries. The second is: Bob Sanders is the key for Indy to stop the run. The following will address both myths: After the Colts started 9-0, they lost 4 out of 7. In their final 7 regular season games: FS Bob Sanders played in only 4 games this season. 1 game and they still lost. He only played in 3 of their 9 games to begin the season, all of which (of course) were wins. He is the biggest "difference maker" according to the media. However he wasn't around for more than 3 games when Indy was winning their first 9 games, and he was only around for 1 game during their last 7 and they lost that game. Important piece of the team: yes. Vital to success? No - they won 9 regular season games without him. Also, is he a "run stopper"? In the 4 games he played during the season, Indy allowed NYG to rush for 6.6 ypr, Hou to rush for 4.7 ypr, NE to rush for 4.5 ypr and Ten to rush for 6.3 ypr. All 4 teams rushed for more ypr against Indy w/ Bob Sanders in the lineup than those teams rush for on avg ypr. So let's drop this whole "Bob Sanders is the KEY for Indy to stop the run". SS Antoine Bethea missed 2 games during the season. One was a win against Cincy and the other was a loss against Ten. He played in their other 3 losses. CB Nick Harper missed only 1 game during the regular season which was a W against the Jets, and played in their 4 losses. LB Rob Morris missed only 1 game which was a W against NE, and played in their 4 losses LB Gary Brackett missed 2 games. One was a win against Buf and 1 was a loss against Dallas. He played in their other 3 losses. That's just a look at the defensive players. So from what I can see, w/ the exception of Bob Sanders, almost every single Indy defensive player was around and played in Indy's dismal 3 W and 4 L finish to the season. And Bob Sanders is not the "run stopping difference maker" for Indy which would cause them to magically stop the run as long as he is playing, like ESPN would like you to believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Now, as for Dallas Clark: I am well aware he missed 4 games and during that span Indy went 1-3. So are you telling me that the absence of Dallas Clark and Dallas Clark alone caused Indy to drop 3 of 4 games? We've shown it wasn't the defensive injuries, must have been the offense. W/O Clark, Indy can't produce the same from the passing game, right? Here's the trivia question: Who is Indy's leading TE w/ catches on the season? Taking it a step further. Acknowledging Clark missed 4 games... Who is Indy's leading TE in catches per game played? The answer to both is Ben Utecht. He missed 1 game himself earlier in the year, but finished w/ 37 catches for an avg of 2.8 per game. Both numbers are higher than Dallas Clark. Wait, is Dallas Clark averaging fewer than 2.8 catches per game? I thought he was the difference maker for Indy's O, and his injury caused them to drop 3 of 4? It is true, Clark only averaged 2.5 catches per game. I will also acknowledge that his numbers alone are not the only thing Indy misses. They are able to line up in their 2 TE formation and his presence opens things up for some other receivers. I admit that. So let's take a look at how Clark and Utecht were used in the 7 games prior to Clark's injury vs. Philly. Maybe over the course of the season Utecht has better numbers, but when Indy was rolling, Clark was putting up better numbers, right? Clark averaged 2.6 receptions per game and Utecht averaged 3.5 receptions per game. If you want to say "Well, Peyton threw Clarks way much more than Utecht, Utecht just caught a higher number of those throws": On the season Peyton threw the ball at Utecht 53 times and he caught it 37 of them. Peyton threw the ball at Clark 57 times and he caught 30 of them. So Peyton distributed the ball almost evenly between the two, slight advantage to Clark, but nothing mind blowing. Let's have some fun and dig a little deeper. We know it wasn't the missing defensive players fault that Indy lost those 4 games at the end of the season, because most defensive starters were in the lineup for all of those games. So it's got to be Dallas Clark, right. Without him in there, Peyton played much worse and that's why they lost, right? Let's see.... The 4 games before Clark's Injury, Peyton threw 153 times, completed 99 for an average y/a of 7.6 yds. That is a completion % of 65% and he threw 8 TDs, and Indy went 3-1. Good numbers, it must have been Clark... The 4 games Clark missed for injury, Peyton threw 141 times, completed 96 for an average y/a of 8.6 yds. That is a completion % of 68% and he threw 8 TDs, and Indy went 1-3. So Dallas Clark's injury did not seem to affect Indy's passing game one bit in terms of the production, in fact, without him in there Peyton completed a higher % of passes w/ exactly 1 more yard gained per attempt. I don't buy it ESPN. Again, as I said earlier, Dallas Clark provides Indy w/ more than numbers alone, so of course his absence will have some affect. But you don't see the affect in the numbers of the passing game, which is where you would have expected to find it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 Now, as for Dallas Clark: I don't buy it ESPN. Again, as I said earlier, Dallas Clark provides Indy w/ more than numbers alone, so of course his absence will have some affect. But you don't see the affect in the numbers of the passing game, which is where you would have expected to find it. Most good teams have a player or two who have that something special thing going on which seems to elevate the success of the team and they arn't always the best player on the team either. He may be more like a player coach...like in the movie "The Longest Yard" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Most good teams have a player or two who have that something special thing going on which seems to elevate the success of the team and they arn't always the best player on the team either. He may be more like a player coach...like in the movie "The Longest Yard" I don't know if he is a "player coach" - I think that is Manning, but I will stand corrected if Indy fans tell me otherwise. I don't discount that both Clark and Sanders are important parts of the Colts and without either of them the Colts would have trouble. I am trying to look more at the final half of the season, where Indy dropped 4 of 7 games. You listen to ESPN or read articles, and they will tell you: Indy was poor during the end of the regular season due to defensive injuries. Bob Sanders is the key for Indy to stop the run. The absence of Dallas Clark, therefore, must have caused Indy to drop 3 of 4 games. And I did the digging and find that the first statement is totally false, and the second and third statements are not reflected in the stats. The only place they are reflected are in the W/L column. So maybe the numbers are lying. You can't even say that their presence "elevates the play" of the other players, because the numbers don't reflect that either. Bob Sanders was not the only guy responsible for allowing 6.6 and 6.3 ypr to both NYG and Ten. The whole D gave that up w/ Sanders in there. When Dallas Clark was out, Indy's pass O produced slightly better numbers than when he was in there. It's not just Clark, it's the entire pass O: the O-line, QB and receivers. I know they bring immense value so it is not necessarily fair to reduce it to just numbers. I mean no offense to Indy fans. The game is played on the field, not in a computer simulation based on numbers. But the bottom line is, it either could be that the numbers lie, or that the excuses made by the media to spin that "the Colts are fine now, just look at the game vs. KC" is simply that: a spin which could equate to a Ravens cover on Saturday. Time will tell... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 (edited) From the whacked out theory department: I have just been fooling around with a "system" idea for the playoff format. It is based on the fact that I am mostly on the favorites this weekend. I started thinking, what if I am wrong. What if we have another whacked out playoff weekend where the underdogs rule the day. It happened in 2004. It is not beyond the realm of possibility by any means. I think any of us could envision a scenario where the home teams could lose. So just for kicks I punched in a parlay moneyline bet for all the underdogs to see what the payoff would be. Right now a $15 bet on the all the dogs would get you a payoff of close to $1400. That is a lot of wiggle room. So I started crunching the numbers. Lets say you make that $15 four team parlay on all the dogs moneyline. Let the Colts game finish. If the Colts lose. Bet is over. But I don't care because I am on Ravens in my other bets anyway. -15 If the Colts win (by some miracle) next up is the Eagles/Saints. Many people feel the Eagles have a decent chance of an upset this weekend. So now you can either sit on the parlay, or you can begin hedging to make sure you come out even. At this point you would need to bet about $50 on the Saints ML to win $20, which covers your original bet and you are +5 If the Eagles win, now you now have -65 w parlay pending / Saints win +5 The next game is where it gets harder as the Bears are a huge favorite and the moneyline is currently -410. Money seems to be coming in on the Seahawks, but I don't know how much that moneyline will move between now and gametime. I am going to assume it settles at maybe -400. So at that point obviously you would need to bet $260 on the Bears moneyline to cover the $65 you have invested. Obviously you might want to cool off on the hedging, but a full hedge would cost you the $260, maybe less by game time. Seahawks win you now have $325 total invested in the system. Bears win you end up even. - Finally the last game. It seems the moneyline bets are already pretty strong for the Pats, so hopefully those numbers will stay where they are until gametime. So now if 3 dogs have all covered you can play it any way you want. You have lots of wiggle room for the last game. You can ride it out, hope New England wins outright and cash out $1075, or you can hedge once again. Right now to hedge on the Chargers moneyline it would cost you about $800 to cover your $325. So in the last game you could set it up to where either you win $325 or come out even. So basically what I am saying is you could risk nothing, and get paid approx. $325 this weekend. Unlikely to be sure. But if you have a big stack of lettuce laying around, it is an almost zero risk proposition. Of course, if this unlikeliest scenario were to actually play out over the first three games, I would have to think long and hard about hedging on that last one. By the time game time gets here I would think there is at least a chance that the Chargers moneyline might actually go down. So at that point you have lots of options. But you don't have to spend a dime if you don't want to. This whole thing could come apart at the seams if there is serious moneyline movement to the home teams before the games actually get here. I guess if you really think the home dogs are all going to win, you could just make the original moneyline bet, stick with it without hedging and take home all $1400. I guess what I am really trying to say is, I think I have too much time on my hands!! Edited January 12, 2007 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 you don't have too much time rat....you are just plotting. i do it all the time. in fact, a friend of mine hit a lottery (thats what i call them) parlay card last week. he wagered 9 dollars for a 1440 payoff. this was a playoff parlay card where he hit on things like first team to punt, more pts first half or second, etc. well the last thing it came down to was the philly game and he needed the under and over 3 field goals (total). well he couldn't hedge the field goals but we made him play the over for a hundo. another instance 2 weeks ago, my roommate had a good chance to be the "fiddle in the middle" for a yr long pick the pro's contest. they were paying 200,000 to the person (s) with even records for the yr. they would split between all the tied people. he had it down to the last game and if the one team won, he would have a .500 record for the yr. and get the fiddle. so he came back and bet the other side and hedged against winnings that he had no idea how much they would be. he threw 300 down on the hedge. lost the fiddle but made the 300. turns out, it was the best scenario possible as i think some hugh amount of people all tied and made the payout like 150 dollars. so, for his 50 dollar investment on the yr (price of the pick the pro contest) he netted 250. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 (edited) you don't have too much time rat....you are just plotting. i do it all the time. Upon further review, I would like this system better if the original parlay was $20-$25. Then you let the first two games run without a hedge. At most you are out $25. Then if the first two hit, you are in great hedge shape for the rest of the way, with the Bears -400 being the only serious roadblock, and even at that you could get a full hedge on your original bet for $100. or guarantee yourself a profit of however much you want, still leaving room for the SD/NE hedge. Hmmm. Edited January 12, 2007 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 i haven't done it yet, but the four team favorites(bears, chargers, ravens, saints) MONEYLINE parlay is paying off at a two team SPREAD parlay price. 2.7 to 1. not great, not glamorous, but if you are supporting the home teams, gives you the leeway of no point spreads, just victories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 I've thought about that before, but you enter more the realm of probablilty as opposed to intelligent sports gambling. The liklihood of all 4 dogs winning is extremely low. But you are right about 2 things: 1. It could happen 2. You would lose money if you start hedging after the first game And as you said, taking Bears ML is going to take a lot of investment just to break even. If for some reason the first 2 games hit on Sunday, I would say you are just going to have to let the Bears game play out, and hedge on the NE game. Besides, as you said, you are only losing your original bet of $15 or $20 if the Bears win, so that really is insignificant. It only becomes really critical when you are down to completing the last piece of the puzzle. At least that is my opinion. W/ the public heavily backing Seattle, NE and Indy, I find it hard to believe all 3 would win. But again, it "could" happen.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 At least that is my opinion. W/ the public heavily backing Seattle, NE and Indy, I find it hard to believe all 3 would win. But again, it "could" happen.... Steel, on the seattle money - I'm seeing the line go up in most places and some stats that while the early influx was on Sea, it's more than evened out. You still seing sea as the pub money pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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