rattsass Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 I've thought about that before, but you enter more the realm of probablilty as opposed to intelligent sports gambling. The liklihood of all 4 dogs winning is extremely low. But you are right about 2 things: 1. It could happen 2. You would lose money if you start hedging after the first game And as you said, taking Bears ML is going to take a lot of investment just to break even. If for some reason the first 2 games hit on Sunday, I would say you are just going to have to let the Bears game play out, and hedge on the NE game. Besides, as you said, you are only losing your original bet of $15 or $20 if the Bears win, so that really is insignificant. It only becomes really critical when you are down to completing the last piece of the puzzle. At least that is my opinion. W/ the public heavily backing Seattle, NE and Indy, I find it hard to believe all 3 would win. But again, it "could" happen.... Well, the beauty part is that I already have straight bets on the favorites, so this is obviously a bet I do not believe in. Just disaster insurance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 anyone know who brandon lang picked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 brandon lang? hmm brandon lang?? why does that name sound familiar??? is he part of the vegasinsider crew?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 lol @ brandon lang ........NOW. MATTHEW MCCONAHHEEE HAW RIGHT??? the movie with pacino. good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 yes, but actually he's areal person. He is on a huge downturn for the pros (sent out an apology last week actually). Hoping to see him on Indy/NE/NO/Chi....cause he has become the ultimate fade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Steel, on the seattle money - I'm seeing the line go up in most places and some stats that while the early influx was on Sea, it's more than evened out. You still seing sea as the pub money pick? No, still on Sea. I posted what it was earlier, here is where it is now: ATS: Sea 62% Chi 38% ML: Sea 77% Chi 23% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 I can post Lang's picks when they are released. Not sure if you want to tail or fade, but I don't recommend tailing Lang. You saw his picks at the end of the WC thread. Pretty miserable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 12, 2007 Share Posted January 12, 2007 I can post Lang's picks when they are released. Not sure if you want to tail or fade, but I don't recommend tailing Lang. You saw his picks at the end of the WC thread. Pretty miserable. Tks - not going to completely straight fade him, but want to see how it matches up with what I'm doing. If he's heavy on one of my weak plays, may stay away I gotta look into that seattle thing - weird we're so far off what we're seeing (I really jsut get my info from elsewhere) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Mine are from the sportsbooks of: Pinny CRIS WWTS BetUS Cascade SIA 5Dimes WSEX That Seattle info is thru 41,161 bets. The numbers are just # of bets - it's not the $$. So even though the numbers are not changing much, you could have a few sharps pounding the hell out of Chi. Pinny artifically set the line at -9.5 from the beginning to discourage teasers. You can tell where the line really moved from tracking the juice. 01/07/07 8:30:44 PM -9.5/103 (Open) 38u -126 (Open) 01/07/07 8:40:45 PM -9.5/103 37 -105 01/07/07 9:10:45 PM -9.5/107 37o -106 01/07/07 9:40:44 PM -9.5/111 37o -106 01/07/07 9:50:45 PM -9.5/107 37o -106 01/07/07 10:40:46 PM -9.5/107 37u -109 01/07/07 10:50:44 PM -9.5/107 37o -107 01/07/07 11:20:44 PM -9.5/105 37o -107 01/08/07 10:54:36 AM -8.5/-107 38u -108 01/08/07 12:10:46 PM -9.5/109 38u -108 01/08/07 1:10:49 PM -9.5/109 37o -107 01/08/07 3:40:49 PM -9.5/112 37o -107 01/08/07 6:41:04 PM -9.5/112 37o -106 01/08/07 10:20:44 PM -9.5/107 37o -106 01/08/07 10:31:01 PM -9.5/105 37o -106 01/08/07 11:30:43 PM -9.5/105 37u -106 01/09/07 11:30:45 AM -9.5/105 37u -109 01/09/07 12:20:44 PM -9.5/101 37u -109 01/09/07 3:20:46 PM -9.5/101 37u -112 01/09/07 3:50:44 PM -9.5/101 36.5u -109 01/09/07 4:00:44 PM -9.5/101 36.5u -106 01/10/07 11:50:44 AM -9.5/103 36.5u -106 01/10/07 5:30:44 PM -9.5/103 36.5o -107 01/11/07 8:50:51 AM -9.5/104 36.5o -107 01/11/07 1:10:47 PM -9.5/102 36.5o -107 01/12/07 12:50:44 PM -9.5/101 36.5o -107 01/12/07 1:00:44 PM -9.5/100 36.5o -107 01/12/07 1:50:44 PM -9.5/-101 36.5o -107 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Brandon Lang SATURDAY 40 DIME RAVENS FREE PLAY - Eagles - For analysis see daily video Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Any thoughts on the Eagles/Saints, Dre? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramhock Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Just heard Hugh Douglas on WIP in Philly state that there were Giants running around free through the Eagle secondary the entire game, last week. With Lito out, that probably will happen again. Brees is playing better than Eli and that will lead to the Saints scoring plenty of points. Can Garcia keep up? I think not. Another factor is the crowd. They were insane for the LSU - ND game, and they will be again, tonite. The Saints faithful just lived through a disaster and I would be surprised if any of them leave the Superdome with there voice intact. I like the Saints, BIG. Beware, as I am 0 - 1 on these threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 My head says the saints win this one by 10+ but my heart hopes its wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 (edited) Brandon Lang SATURDAY 40 DIME RAVENS FREE PLAY - Eagles - For analysis see daily video Edited January 13, 2007 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 i have a four team 6 pt tease with the colts +10 and under 47.5, and the saints +1/2 and under 54.5. 3/1 odds. i'm going back up to the casino for some more action. perhaps a colts/eagles ml parlay. i do like the unders today, games might be a little conservative to start and you almost always get a 3rd quarter lull. over bets are coming in at over 60% on both these games today. despite the weather tomorrow in chicago, i'm leaning towards the over in that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 some last minute analysis and handicapping here by yours truly has pointed me in the direction of baltimore 1st half -2.5. looks like about a 70% to 80% play. just looking at the away numbers for the colts and home numbers for the ravens i have a plus 5 on the ravens. -2.5 should be good to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 The Saints/Eagles game is giving me fits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Next Generation Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 The Saints/Eagles game is giving me fits Shouldn't you just stay away from that game then?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Shouldn't you just stay away from that game then?? Yeah, I think I'm going to leave this one alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 I'm watching the trends this AM. The Ravens and the UNDER appear to be getting hit hard with the line moving to 4 and 41.5 respectively @ bodog. Some moves to Eagles and OVER in the night game, but not nearly as significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmbstudios Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 I dont bet on the games, so I dont understand all the lingo. But I have one question. What are all the 'experts' saying about the Charger/Pats game? Just outright who is gonna win! Thanks, and maybe someday I will learn the language of betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 G - not sure yet on the Philly game. I am not planning on betting on the game. However for my pick contest I am going to take NO+5. My numbers show a 5-6 point NO victory. And that is your standard HFA. I think the Saints should have their HFA bumped a point or two today, which should lean my pick to NO. However Philly could get it done. I haven't made the pick yet, but that's my lean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 G - not sure yet on the Philly game. I am not planning on betting on the game. However for my pick contest I am going to take NO+5. My numbers show a 5-6 point NO victory. And that is your standard HFA. I think the Saints should have their HFA bumped a point or two today, which should lean my pick to NO. However Philly could get it done. I haven't made the pick yet, but that's my lean. Thanks Dre. If I do anything it will be three 10's...Bal +6 CHI +1 NO +4.5, I think. Not for much, just enough to keep it interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 i got stung a little on the ravens -2.5 1st half. had to lay 120 to win 100. paired it with the under 20.5 1st half in a quarter parlay. again, i think this is a pretty strong high percentage play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Good luck on that play Crispirons. G - good luck today. Some value is lost (as I am sure you know) when teasing across 0. I like the Chi play, but the other 2 - you may get even more value taking the dogs and teasing up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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