Conference Championship Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

 

After a dominating run, my streak was finally broken. I went 3-0 ATS in the Wildcard round, but came up 0-2 this weekend in posted plays ATS.

 

Still up in the post season overall, and still on a 12-3 run in terms of winning days vs. losing days. But last weekend did put a damper on an otherwise great end to the season. Hopefully I will regain my form next weekend.

 

We saw several favorites just blow their opportunities, be it coaching, or poor play. I would hate to be a SD fan this morning. The playoff lines are so tight. My system has been rendered ineffective this postseason, because it finds the games where the lines are just "off" by a certain number of points.

 

This weekend, the only game it showed having more than 1 point of value was the Chi/Sea game (w/ Sea having the value, but not enough value to be a "system play"). That means for the other 3 games, my calculated line was less than 1 point off what Vegas put out. That is tight!

 

Some interesing matchups in this Championship round. Matchups which ("who would have thought") feature high drawing teams, none more interesting than the Saints. And in the AFC, we have Manning who has another shot at the SB, going up against golden boy Brady.

 

The default at Pinny for Chi/NO is -1, however juice is -119 for that line. For -2.5 it is -106, and most other books are between -2.5 and -3.

 

For the Indy/NE matchup, the line is Indy -3 w/ heavy juice (-115).

 

Good luck this weekend guys - let's come up w/ the winning sides in these 2 matchups.

Edited January 15, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[godtomsatan]

I'm not feeling really strong about much this weekend quite yet. The early gut feel says to take the dogs this weekend, but there are solid reasons to take the favorites as well. We shall see how the lines play out and where the value lies.

[Tford]

My gut says Pats and Bears.

[crispirons]

i have already put in a 6pt four team teaser for 50/200. bears +3.5 and over 37 along with the colts +3 and over 41.5. seems like a safe play with a solid chance to hit. i lost on my bears/ravens superbowl matchup at 13/2 and now think this is indy's yr. i'm going to wait until later this week to see if we can get a prop bet on the superbowl afc vs. nfc. if the numbers are right, we may get another hugh middle on the superbowl again this yr. I will keep people updated if i find the right numbers.

[Steeltown Dre]

You mean AFC -5 vs NFC?

 

That was the line a week ago I believe. It's not there any more at Pinny.

 

Instead you have SB Winner odds of:

 

Indy +150

NEP +250

Chi +420

NO +482

 

Don't look as good - around Jan 1, Indy was 8:1 odds. Now are only 1.5:1... Their value is really gone...unless you think they will defintely win it all...

 

One thing you could do is play the AFC team you think wins on Sunday (who would then become the SB fav) at + odds now, and then you could take the NFC team + the points in the SB as a hedge, and still end up + money w/ a good middle opportunity.

 

Or if you just want $, play the AFC team and then the NFC team ML in the SB. But you would only win 1 of those, no middle.

[rattsass]

Here is something interesting. I SUCK in the playoffs.

 

I've been out of power since Friday night. Had to go to a friggin' bowling alley to watch the Colts / Ravens game. Then the local channel went out right after kickoff of the 2nd game. I listened to 3 playoff games on the freaking radio, huddled up in a blanket. Let me tell you something. The only thing worse than getting your ass handed to you gambling is doing so in the dark and cold, listening to the games on a radio, huddled up in a blanket.

 

Anyway they sounded like great games. But I have something to say as I type this by generator power. I HATE THE COLTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I bet on them they lose.......for YEARS. I bet against them, they win. As per my self imposed rule, I will not be betting against them this week, but I hope whoever wins the AFC gets their head handed to them in the SB.

 

An angry and cold football fan, who is unamused by the freakish turn of events that now shape our playoff games.

 

See y'all when the lights come back on!

Edited January 15, 2007 by rattsass

[keggerz]

Here is something interesting. I SUCK in the playoffs.

 

I've been out of power since Friday night. Had to go to a friggin' bowling alley to watch the Colts / Ravens game. Then the local channel went out right after kickoff of the 2nd game. I listened to 3 playoff games on the freaking radio, huddled up in a blanket. Let me tell you something. The only thing worse than getting your ass handed to you gambling is doing so in the dark and cold, listening to the games on a radio, huddled up in a blanket.

 

Anyway they sounded like great games. But I have something to say as I type this by generator power. I HATE THE COLTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I bet on them they lose.......for YEARS. I bet against them, they win. As per my self imposed rule, I will not be betting against them this week, but I hope whoever wins the AFC gets their head handed to them in the SB.

 

An angry and cold football fan, who is unamused by the freakish turn of events that now shape our playoff games.

 

See y'all when the lights come back on!

 

could you please bet on NE this weekend

[HowboutthemCowboys]

The only thing worse than getting your ass handed to you gambling is doing so in the dark and cold, listening to the games on a radio, huddled up in a blanket.

 

Anyway they sounded like great games.

 

 

I'm sorry man and I hope you get your power back soon but that's a funny freakin' line..

[Steeltown Dre]

I have written my long ass writeup and will be posting it next. If you can spare the time, I encourage you to read it and we can have some discussions on its validity. Agree or disagree, it's all fine.

[Gdawg]

Looking forward to it Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

I don't like looking at full season stats, especially at this time of year. If we take the L3 Home/Away, it gives us 1 playoff game for each team (Pats at SD, Indy vs KC) as well as how they finished up their season. The stats I will note below are L3, unless otherwise stated. Since I will be referring to these L3 H/A throughout, I will show you the teams that are included in this sample:

 

NE: Road games @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21

Indy: Home games vs. KC W 23-8, MIA W 27-22, and CIN W 34-16

 

Rushing Defenses:

 

We know that Indy has shored up their run D substantially in the playoffs. But they were doing so to close out the season. They really shut down KC and made them one dimensional, and played adequately against Bal. They are facing a more balanced team w/ NE. NE has averaged 4.1 ypr while Indy has given up 4.5 ypr. However on the flip side, Indy has rushed for 4.2 ypr and NE has given up 5.3 ypr. But remember, NE has gone up against some tough running offenses, who averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Meanwhile the offenses Indy went up against averaged only 4.0 ypr.

 

So both defenses are giving up a little more on the ground than the teams they face have averaged on the season.

 

In their first meeting, NE averaged 4.5 ypr while Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But as you know, Indy has improved on its rush D of late, and NE got those 4.5 ypr at a time when Indy had allowed on avg 5.4 ypr in it's 7 games prior to NE.

 

Rushing Offenses:

 

As the stats above show, both teams are averaging just over 4.1 ypr on offense. NE has produced exactly what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 4.1 ypr. Indy has produced 4.2 ypr, a hair above what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 3.9 ypr.

 

In their first meeting this year, Indy could only muster 2.1 ypr against NE, while NE averaged 4.5 against Indy. I am confident we will see a better showing than Indy's 2.1 ypr from the earlier game. This comes down to the gameplaning, which I will touch on at the end. In that first matchup NE tried to stop Indy's run game and make Peyton beat them. We will see if they try the same thing, considering Peyton was able to get the job done up in NE.

 

Passing Defenses:

 

Both teams have held their opponents to fairly low pass completion %. Indy held their opponents to 52% and NE held their opponenets to 51%. However it becomes more obvious who has the advantage in terms of defensive philosophy and talented secondaries when you look at the YPA and YPC. Indy has held their opponents to 4.9 ypa and 9.4 ypc. NE on the other hand has allowed 6.7 ypa and 13.2 ypc.

 

Now let's talk for a moment in terms of ypc during the season. Over the entire season, NE has allowed 10.9 ypc. There were only 9 teams w/ worse ypc than NE. I'll name them just to give you a comparsion: Atl, Ari, NYG, Dal, TB, GB, StL, Cle and Was. On the season, these teams averaged about 11.5 ypc.

 

NE the last 3 road games has averaged 13.2 ypc!

 

Well, who are these great QBs who are throwing deep and connecting on NE? None other than Phillip Rivers, Vince Young, and David Garrard. Not one QB who was their team's starting/primary QB last year.

 

Now I realize in their L3 home games, Indy did go up against Cleo Lemon in one game. However they faced a veteran Trent Green and the #4 rated (in terms of ypa) Carson Palmer as well.

 

In their last matchup, both QBs completed about 56% of their passes, but Indy averaged 16.3 ypc compared to 10.0 ypc for NE. As I said earlier, it may have been Belichick's plan to stuff the run, which is why Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But Peyton clearly burned his secondary which has given up huge plays throughout the season, especially of late.

 

Passing Offenses:

 

NE has averaged 61% completions compared to 73% thrown by Indy. NE has been throwing for a respectable 6.4 ypa which is about what they averaged on the season. Indy is slightly better w/ 7.2 ypa. Since Indy has been completing a much larger % of their passes, you can therefore guess that NE has had a slightly better ypc over the L3. 10.6 ypc vs. 9.9 ypc for Indy.

 

Both teams have been doing excellent at avoiding sacks by utilizing shorter drops, less time in the pocket, and faster developing plays. Against SD, Brady threw for only 5.5 ypa and 10.4 ypc. It is obvious from the numbers and by watching Peyton, he is doing the exact same. This cuts down on negative plays (so long as you don't turn the ball over), and keeps the momentum going of the offense, and prevents forcing 3rd and long situations.

 

Turnovers have been a highlight of both NE and Indy. It's well documented that Peyton has thrown 1 TD and 5 Ints this postseason. However Brady isn't exactly playing lights out himself, coming off a 2 TD, 3 Int performance against SD.

 

In their last matchup, as stated above, Indy averaged 16.3 ypc vs only 10.0 ypc for NE. Brady threw 0 TDs and 4 Ints (2 were on tipped passes).

 

Other Key Statistics:

 

Penalities: NE has had problems w/ penalties recently. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. NE has averaged 7.7 defensive penalties for 81 ypg. That is compared to Indy's D averaging only 2.3 defensive penalties for 14 ypg. On offense, it is not quite as bad for NE, but they are still averaging over 2 more offensive penalties for 35 more ypg than Indy's offense.

 

3rd down %: We know how critical 3rd downs are in the NFL. And NE simply is not getting it done on the road. They have averaged 36% 3rd down completions. That includes the 24% game at SD last weekend. Meanwhile you have the Colts, who are #2 in the league during the regular season, and averaging 53% their L3 home. Indy'd D has been downright stingy, allowing less than 30% 3rd downs to their opponents. NE's D has been good too, allowing opposing teams only 35% 3rd down completions. Indy (again) has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this one.

 

Red Zone %: Indy has the advantage here as well. Better on offense (67% vs to NE's 55%) and better on defense (allowing 30% conversions vs Indy's 50%).

 

Overall:

 

There are several ways to look at this game. You can look at recent statistics, you can look at their last couple of matchups, or you can just take a gut feel. The last one would what a guy does who says "throw the stats out the window" for this key game.

 

Any way you slice it, I think the edge falls into Indy's court. As big an issue that has been made of Indy's run game, there is an even worse problem w/ NE's pass D. I am not suggesting that Phillip Rivers, Vince Young and David Garrard sliced up NE's pass D, afterall NE allowed only 1 passing TD and took 3 Ints. But, those 3 QBs averaged 51% completions for 13.2 ypc against NE. They now have to face one of the deadliest QBs in the game today, who did carve NE up the last 2 meetings.

 

I wanted to introduce this final look at the QBs before I complete my analysis. I realize that for several years now, since about 01-02, when NE won their first SB that Tom Brady has been more "clutch" than any other QB in the league. I know that on ESPN they always say if you want a guy for 1 game, who would you take, and everyone says Brady. I won't dispute that. But I want to look at this season and see what Manning has done vs. what Brady has done. Granted, these aren't "Clutch" games during the regular season.

 

But what about "Clutch" situations?

 

What about when your team is losing? What about in the 2nd half of the game? What about on 3rd down?

 

This year, Manning has been pretty remarkable:

 

When the Colts are losing, his rating of 106.4 is higher than when they are tied or when they have the lead.

In the 2nd half, his rating of 102.7 is higher than his 1st half rating.

On third down, his rating of 119.1 is higher than on first or second down.

And his best rating of all is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 148.5.

 

Comparing that to Brady:

 

When the Pats are losing, his rating of 72.4 is lower than when they are tied or when they have the lead.

In the 2nd half, his rating of 86.1 is lower than his 1st half rating.

On third down, his rating of 76.8 is lower than on first or second down.

And on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when you need it the most, his rating is 67.6.

 

So while I am not stating that Peyton Manning will be more "Clutch" this weekend, Peyton has been extremely "Clutch" in key situations throughout this season, and Brady has not really rose to the occasion. Will Brady revert to his "Clutch" form this weekend, in the most "Clutch" game of all thus far this season? That is what Pats backers are banking on. We will see if it happens...

 

So looking back to what I have presented, I see the obvious key being the Colts pass offense vs. the NE pass defense. A close second will be the turnover battle, and lastly but important nonetheless, the Colts rush defense vs. the NE rush offense. A lot depends on how Belichick approaches this game - no one can predict what he will do. If he takes away the run, Peyton can and will beat him in the air. If he gives a more balanced defensive assault, I look for a more even game.

 

To the guys who say "throw the stats out the window": I see a balanced Colts team who is primed for its shot. This is not the same NE team from 01-05. Indy has won the last 2 in NE, and in both games Peyton was outstanding. (Throwing 66% completions for 324 ypg, 5 total TDs and 2 Ints.) I see a NE team that is well coached, has overcome the odds to get where they are, and are riding the wings of percieved dominance. They realistically were lucky to leave SD w/ a win. Indy must look to the big plays on offense that they avoided against Balt and KC. Use the run to set up the short pass and come back w/ a deep pass. NE gives up big pass plays and this should be the focus of Indy's attack.

 

This game is not a sure thing whatsoever. In my mind and on paper I am predicting the way it plays out, and in the most likely scenario I come up with, I see a 24-20 Colts victory. But as we know, one single play could be the difference in this game. They guy betting on the Pats has to be thinking the headlines on Monday are what they have been during the Pats superbowl run:

 

"Manning Chokes, Brady is Clutch, Belichick is a Genius"

 

But again, this is not that same Pats team, and this Colts team has the will to win, by any number of ways. The Colts will run if they need to, they will pass if they want to, they will play D and allow you to only score FGs, and they will win by kicking FGs. This is not a one-dimensional team, and they are playing as cohesive right now as they have played all year.

 

That is why the best play this weekend, in my opinion, is Indy to win the SB at +150.

 

For a couple of reasons. First, I feel OK about -3, I like -2.5 better, but I like ML the most. But right now you would only get Indy ML for around -165. That is pretty harsh. As it stands now, Pinny has -3 at -118, and -2.5 at -144. Both are tough to swallow.

 

Second, if Indy wins this game, I think you will see them installed as fairly substantial favorites, well above 3 points. If you predict a close SB game that may be won by the underdog or may result in a close loss to the Colts, you could shoot for the middle and take the points. Either way, you now have the favorite at + money and don't have to lay points.

 

The only reason not to take Indy +150 to win the SB is if you think the NFC winner will beat the Colts. Then you could cough up and take Indy ML this weekend, or more reluctantly, Indy -2.5.

[Gdawg]

I don't like looking at full season stats, especially at this time of year. If we take the L3 Home/Away, it gives us 1 playoff game for each team (Pats at SD, Indy vs KC) as well as how they finished up their season. The stats I will note below are L3, unless otherwise stated. Since I will be referring to these L3 H/A throughout, I will show you the teams that are included in this sample:

 

NE: Road games @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21

Indy: Home games vs. KC W 23-8, MIA W 27-22, and CIN W 34-16

 

Rushing Defenses:

 

We know that Indy has shored up their run D substantially in the playoffs. But they were doing so to close out the season. They really shut down KC and made them one dimensional, and played adequately against Bal. They are facing a more balanced team w/ NE. NE has averaged 4.1 ypr while Indy has given up 4.5 ypr. However on the flip side, Indy has rushed for 4.2 ypr and NE has given up 5.3 ypr. But remember, NE has gone up against some tough running offenses, who averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Meanwhile the offenses Indy went up against averaged only 4.0 ypr.

 

So both defenses are giving up a little more on the ground than the teams they face have averaged on the season.

 

In their first meeting, NE averaged 4.5 ypr while Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But as you know, Indy has improved on its rush D of late, and NE got those 4.5 ypr at a time when Indy had allowed on avg 5.4 ypr in it's 7 games prior to NE.

 

Rushing Offenses:

 

As the stats above show, both teams are averaging just over 4.1 ypr on offense. NE has produced exactly what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 4.1 ypr. Indy has produced 4.2 ypr, a hair above what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 3.9 ypr.

 

In their first meeting this year, Indy could only muster 2.1 ypr against NE, while NE averaged 4.5 against Indy. I am confident we will see a better showing than Indy's 2.1 ypr from the earlier game. This comes down to the gameplaning, which I will touch on at the end. In that first matchup NE tried to stop Indy's run game and make Peyton beat them. We will see if they try the same thing, considering Peyton was able to get the job done up in NE.

 

Passing Defenses:

 

Both teams have held their opponents to fairly low pass completion %. Indy held their opponents to 52% and NE held their opponenets to 51%. However it becomes more obvious who has the advantage in terms of defensive philosophy and talented secondaries when you look at the YPA and YPC. Indy has held their opponents to 4.9 ypa and 9.4 ypc. NE on the other hand has allowed 6.7 ypa and 13.2 ypc.

 

Now let's talk for a moment in terms of ypc during the season. Over the entire season, NE has allowed 10.9 ypc. There were only 9 teams w/ worse ypc than NE. I'll name them just to give you a comparsion: Atl, Ari, NYG, Dal, TB, GB, StL, Cle and Was. On the season, these teams averaged about 11.5 ypc.

 

NE the last 3 road games has averaged 13.2 ypc!

 

Well, who are these great QBs who are throwing deep and connecting on NE? None other than Phillip Rivers, Vince Young, and David Garrard. Not one QB who was their team's starting/primary QB last year.

 

Now I realize in their L3 home games, Indy did go up against Cleo Lemon in one game. However they faced a veteran Trent Green and the #4 rated (in terms of ypa) Carson Palmer as well.

 

In their last matchup, both QBs completed about 56% of their passes, but Indy averaged 16.3 ypc compared to 10.0 ypc for NE. As I said earlier, it may have been Belichick's plan to stuff the run, which is why Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But Peyton clearly burned his secondary which has given up huge plays throughout the season, especially of late.

 

Passing Offenses:

 

NE has averaged 61% completions compared to 73% thrown by Indy. NE has been throwing for a respectable 6.4 ypa which is about what they averaged on the season. Indy is slightly better w/ 7.2 ypa. Since Indy has been completing a much larger % of their passes, you can therefore guess that NE has had a slightly better ypc over the L3. 10.6 ypc vs. 9.9 ypc for Indy.

 

Both teams have been doing excellent at avoiding sacks by utilizing shorter drops, less time in the pocket, and faster developing plays. Against SD, Brady threw for only 5.5 ypa and 10.4 ypc. It is obvious from the numbers and by watching Peyton, he is doing the exact same. This cuts down on negative plays (so long as you don't turn the ball over), and keeps the momentum going of the offense, and prevents forcing 3rd and long situations.

 

Turnovers have been a highlight of both NE and Indy. It's well documented that Peyton has thrown 1 TD and 5 Ints this postseason. However Brady isn't exactly playing lights out himself, coming off a 2 TD, 3 Int performance against SD.

 

In their last matchup, as stated above, Indy averaged 16.3 ypc vs only 10.0 ypc for NE. Brady threw 0 TDs and 4 Ints (2 were on tipped passes).

 

Other Key Statistics:

 

Penalities: NE has had problems w/ penalties recently. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. NE has averaged 7.7 defensive penalties for 81 ypg. That is compared to Indy's D averaging only 2.3 defensive penalties for 14 ypg. On offense, it is not quite as bad for NE, but they are still averaging over 2 more offensive penalties for 35 more ypg than Indy's offense.

 

3rd down %: We know how critical 3rd downs are in the NFL. And NE simply is not getting it done on the road. They have averaged 36% 3rd down completions. That includes the 24% game at SD last weekend. Meanwhile you have the Colts, who are #2 in the league during the regular season, and averaging 53% their L3 home. Indy'd D has been downright stingy, allowing less than 30% 3rd downs to their opponents. NE's D has been good too, allowing opposing teams only 35% 3rd down completions. Indy (again) has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this one.

 

Red Zone %: Indy has the advantage here as well. Better on offense (67% vs to NE's 55%) and better on defense (allowing 30% conversions vs Indy's 50%).

 

Overall:

 

There are several ways to look at this game. You can look at recent statistics, you can look at their last couple of matchups, or you can just take a gut feel. The last one would what a guy does who says "throw the stats out the window" for this key game.

 

Any way you slice it, I think the edge falls into Indy's court. As big an issue that has been made of Indy's run game, there is an even worse problem w/ NE's pass D. I am not suggesting that Phillip Rivers, Vince Young and David Garrard sliced up NE's pass D, afterall NE allowed only 1 passing TD and took 3 Ints. But, those 3 QBs averaged 51% completions for 13.2 ypc against NE. They now have to face one of the deadliest QBs in the game today, who did carve NE up the last 2 meetings.

 

I wanted to introduce this final look at the QBs before I complete my analysis. I realize that for several years now, since about 01-02, when NE won their first SB that Tom Brady has been more "clutch" than any other QB in the league. I know that on ESPN they always say if you want a guy for 1 game, who would you take, and everyone says Brady. I won't dispute that. But I want to look at this season and see what Manning has done vs. what Brady has done. Granted, these aren't "Clutch" games during the regular season.

 

But what about "Clutch" situations?

 

What about when your team is losing? What about in the 2nd half of the game? What about on 3rd down?

 

This year, Manning has been pretty remarkable:

 

When the Colts are losing, his rating of 106.4 is higher than when they are tied or when they have the lead.

In the 2nd half, his rating of 102.7 is higher than his 1st half rating.

On third down, his rating of 119.1 is higher than on first or second down.

And his best rating of all is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 148.5.

 

Comparing that to Brady:

 

When the Pats are losing, his rating of 72.4 is lower than when they are tied or when they have the lead.

In the 2nd half, his rating of 86.1 is lower than his 1st half rating.

On third down, his rating of 76.8 is lower than on first or second down.

And on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when you need it the most, his rating is 67.6.

 

So while I am not stating that Peyton Manning will be more "Clutch" this weekend, Peyton has been extremely "Clutch" in key situations throughout this season, and Brady has not really rose to the occasion. Will Brady revert to his "Clutch" form this weekend, in the most "Clutch" game of all thus far this season? That is what Pats backers are banking on. We will see if it happens...

 

So looking back to what I have presented, I see the obvious key being the Colts pass offense vs. the NE pass defense. A close second will be the turnover battle, and lastly but important nonetheless, the Colts rush defense vs. the NE rush offense. A lot depends on how Belichick approaches this game - no one can predict what he will do. If he takes away the run, Peyton can and will beat him in the air. If he gives a more balanced defensive assault, I look for a more even game.

 

To the guys who say "throw the stats out the window": I see a balanced Colts team who is primed for its shot. This is not the same NE team from 01-05. Indy has won the last 2 in NE, and in both games Peyton was outstanding. (Throwing 66% completions for 324 ypg, 5 total TDs and 2 Ints.) I see a NE team that is well coached, has overcome the odds to get where they are, and are riding the wings of percieved dominance. They realistically were lucky to leave SD w/ a win. Indy must look to the big plays on offense that they avoided against Balt and KC. Use the run to set up the short pass and come back w/ a deep pass. NE gives up big pass plays and this should be the focus of Indy's attack.

 

This game is not a sure thing whatsoever. In my mind and on paper I am predicting the way it plays out, and in the most likely scenario I come up with, I see a 24-20 Colts victory. But as we know, one single play could be the difference in this game. They guy betting on the Pats has to be thinking the headlines on Monday are what they have been during the Pats superbowl run:

 

"Manning Chokes, Brady is Clutch, Belichick is a Genius"

 

But again, this is not that same Pats team, and this Colts team has the will to win, by any number of ways. The Colts will run if they need to, they will pass if they want to, they will play D and allow you to only score FGs, and they will win by kicking FGs. This is not a one-dimensional team, and they are playing as cohesive right now as they have played all year.

 

That is why the best play this weekend, in my opinion, is Indy to win the SB at +150.

 

For a couple of reasons. First, I feel OK about -3, I like -2.5 better, but I like ML the most. But right now you would only get Indy ML for around -165. That is pretty harsh. As it stands now, Pinny has -3 at -118, and -2.5 at -144. Both are tough to swallow.

 

Second, if Indy wins this game, I think you will see them installed as fairly substantial favorites, well above 3 points. If you predict a close SB game that may be won by the underdog or may result in a close loss to the Colts, you could shoot for the middle and take the points. Either way, you now have the favorite at + money and don't have to lay points.

 

The only reason not to take Indy +150 to win the SB is if you think the NFC winner will beat the Colts. Then you could cough up and take Indy ML this weekend, or more reluctantly, Indy -2.5.

 

Terrific Dre! Great analysis, as always. I DO think it is the Colt's season, I am liking the IND SB +150 bet!

Not sure about the points for this game, ML may be the way to go but I wouldn't feel terrible about -2.5. Thanks again!

[godtomsatan]

Now that Neteller is out of the US market after a couple of arrests, I think my gambling career via the internet may be kaput.

 

crispy, you going to open a huddle book service?

Edited January 17, 2007 by godtomsatan

[Steeltown Dre]

I decided to take a closer look at the defenses. Indy seems to have stepped up as of late, and I hear the stat that NE has allowed the 2nd fewest points on the year. And the fewest in Pats history. So I wanted to see how they really rank in several key categories w/ the NFL

 

So here is a comparison of NE's Defense over the season. I will discuss how they did in the regular season, then how they did in their last 3 overall, and finally how they did in their L3 road games.

 

I will then compare those numbers to how Indy has fared in it's L3 home games. So keep in mind, when discussing NE's L3 and L3 road schedule:

 

Last 3 Games: @SD W 24-21, vs. NYJ W 37-16, @TEN W 40-23

Last 3 Road games: @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21

 

PPG

 

Reg Season: NE ranked 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore, allowing only 14.8 ppg during the season. The teams they played averaged 20.8 ppg over the season. So NE held them to a solid 6 ppg below their avg.

 

Last 3: NE has allowed 20.0 ppg in the last 3 games. The teams they played averaged 23.6 ppg over the season. So that is a respectable 3.6 ppg below their average.

 

L3 Road: NE has allowed 21.7 ppg in L3 Road. The teams they played averaged 24.8 ppg over the season. So similar to their L3, they held the opposition to 3.1 ppg below average.

 

Just for Comparison: The L3 for Indy, they have allowed 12.0 ppg, and the teams they played averaged 19.7 ppg over the season. So Indy hel them to 7.7 ppg below their average.

 

Rushing D - YPR

 

Reg Season: NE allowed only 3.9 ypr on the regular season. That was good for 7th in the league.

 

Last 3: NE allowed 4.8 ypr. Opponents averaged 4.4 ypr on the season. Their opponents gained 0.4 more ypr vs NE than they averaged on the season.

 

L3 Road: NE allowed 5.3 ypr. Opponents averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Their opponents gained (once again) 0.4 more ypr vs NE than they averaged on the season.

 

Just for Comparison: The L3 home games for Indy, they allowed 4.5 ypr, and the teams they played averaged 4.0 ypr. Their opponents gained 0.5 more ypr vs Indy than they averaged on the season.

 

Rushing D - TDs

 

Reg Season: NE allowed 11 rushing TDs on the year, good for 9th in the league. That was an average of 0.69 rush TDs/game.

 

Last 3: NE allowed 4 rushing TDs. That is an avg of 1.3 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.3 rush TDs/game on the year. So they break even.

 

L3 Road: NE allowed 6 rushing TDs, that is an avg of 2.0 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.4 rush TDs/game on the year. So NE allowed 0.6 more rushing TDs/game than their opponents gained on average.

 

Just for Comparison: The L3 home for Indy, they allowed 1 rushing TD, which is an avg of 0.3 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 0.8 rush TDs/game on the year, so Indy allowed 0.5 fewer rushing TDs/game allowed than their opponents gained on average. If we look at L3 overall, Indy has not allowed a single rushing TD in their L3.

 

Passing D - YPC

 

Reg Season: NE allowed 10.9 ypc on the year, which is 22nd in the league.

 

Last 3: NE allowed 13.0 ypc. Opponents averaged 10.9 ypc. NE allowed them to gain 2.1 ypc more than they averaged on the season.

 

L3 Road: NE allowed 13.2 ypc. Opponents averaged 11.2 ypc. NE allowed them to gain 2.0 ypc more than they averaged on the season.

 

Just for Comparison: Whether L3 overall or L3 home, Indy is allowing 8.9 and 9.4 ypc respectively. Their opponents averaged 10.3 ypc (L3 overall) and 10.7 ypc (L3 home). Indy has held them to about 1.3 ypc less than what they averaged on the season.

 

Passing D - % Complete

 

Reg Season: NE allowed 56.8 % completions in the reg season, which is 8th in the league.

 

Last 3: NE has allowed only 48.6 % completions. Their opponents averaged 59% on the year. So NE has allowed 10.4% fewer completions than those teams average.

 

L3 Road: NE allowed 50.5 % completions. Their opponents averaged 57.4% on the year. So NE has allowed 6.9% fewer completions than those teams average.

 

Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed 56.2 % completions L3 and 52.3 % completions L3 home. But this is against teams who averaged 60.2 % (both L3 and L3 home). So Indy is allowing between 4 % and 7.9 % fewer completions than those teams average.

 

Passing - TDs

 

Reg Season: NE allowed only 10 passing TDs on the year, which is #1 in the league. It is an avg of 0.63 pass TDs/game.

 

Last 3: NE has allowed only 1 passing TD their L3, which is an avg of 0.3 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.1 pass TDs/game, so NE held them to 0.8 pass TDs/game fewer than what they average on the season.

 

L3 Road: NE has allowed only 1 passing TD their L3 road, which is an avg of 0.3 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.1 pass TDs/game, so NE held them to 0.8 pass TDs/game fewer than what they average on the season.

 

Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed 2 passing TDs their L3, and 2 passing TDs their L3 home. That is an avg of 0.7 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged between 1.1 pass TDs/game and 1.3 pass TDs/game. So Indy has held them to between 0.4 and 0.6 fewer passing TDs/game.

 

Red Zone Conversion %

 

Reg Season: NE has allowed only 34% TDs once a team is inside the red zone. This is good for #2 in the league.

 

In the playoffs: NE has allowed a 50% TD conversion rate once inside the red zone. This is 16% more than during the regular season. However the teams they faced, SD and NYJ, during the regular season converted 58% of red zones into TDs. So NE held them to 8% less than their average.

 

Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed a 33% TD conversion rate in the playoffs, During the regular season they allowed a 59% TD rate. So they allowed 26% fewer red zone TDs thus far in the playoffs. In addition, the teams they faced, KC and Balt, during the regular season converted on 51% of red zones into TDs. So Indy held them to 18% less than their average.

 

 

To Summarize:

 

During the regular season, NE's D has been great (top 3) on the season at PPG allowed ,the fewest passing TDs allowed, and Red Zone TDs allowed.

 

They have been decent (top ten) in rushing ypr allowed, rushing TDs allowed, completion % allowed.

 

The only stat they have been very poor at during the season is passing ypc allowed.

 

However, in the most recent games, they have improved in a couple areas but slipped noticably in the rest:

 

Good:

 

They have been doing well at pass completion % - less now than in the regular season, and less than opposition average.

 

And they also have been doing well at passing TDs, allowing fewer than in the regular season, and less than opposition average.

 

Neutral:

 

They are allowing more PPG (though still fewer than opposition average).

 

They are allowing a higher red zone TD conversion % (though still lower than opposition average).

 

Bad:

 

They are allowing more rushing ypg (5.3 ypg) which is more than opposition average.

 

They are allowing more average rushing TDs, and more than their opposition average.

 

They are allowing more passing ypc and more than their opposition average.

 

 

 

The other thing to draw from this is how Indy's D has compared to NE's recently. Compared to NE:

 

Advantage Indy

 

Fewer PPG and fewer than opposition avg

 

Fewer rushing TDs and fewer than opposition avg

 

Fewer passing ypc and fewer than opposition avg

 

Lower Red Zone TD conversion % and lower than opposition avg

 

 

Advantage NE

 

Passing TDs allowed - NE allows fewer and a lower avg than opposition avg.

 

 

Push

 

Rush ypr is a push, because while Indy is averaging fewer ypr allowed, their opposition gains less, so that one is too close to deem an advantage.

 

Pass completion % is a push, because while NE is averaging a lower completion %, their opposition throws for a lower % on avg, so the comparision is too close to deem an advantage.

[wildcat2334]

Great Info in this thread- had a nice run last weekend playing the dogs, pounding the Sea/Chi over, and coming up short with da Bolts, which was the right play in that game but unfortunatley did not come thru.....

 

 

I am hitting Indy -3 pretty hard as well as

 

Chi/NO over 43.5 - I love that game to be over the total.

 

can't get a feel for the side- looking for some input on that actually.................

[crispirons]

Now that Neteller is out of the US market after a couple of arrests, I think my gambling career via the internet may be kaput.

 

crispy, you going to open a huddle book service?

 

 

right tom????? i might have to. f'n buuuuuushwa.

 

 

party poker and full tilt have abandoned the neteller. they are still open to play, you just can't use neteller. i do believe i will be burning down some building. not sure which one or where, but a building somewhere needs to burn because of this crap.

 

hey rat, hope all is getting better in your neck of the woods. i see where 160,000+ are without electricity in missouri still. best of luck to you and your loved ones.

 

great info dre, except it took me 20 minutes to read it. just kiddin, good stuff and very informative. i haven't wavered off my original plays, i think we are looking at the faves and the overs in both contests. i'm down on my teaser and i'm looking at playing the faves moneyline in a parlay. both should be in the -150 area.

[Gdawg]

right tom????? i might have to. f'n buuuuuushwa.

party poker and full tilt have abandoned the neteller. they are still open to play, you just can't use neteller. i do believe i will be burning down some building. not sure which one or where, but a building somewhere needs to burn because of this crap.

 

hey rat, hope all is getting better in your neck of the woods. i see where 160,000+ are without electricity in missouri still. best of luck to you and your loved ones.

 

great info dre, except it took me 20 minutes to read it. just kiddin, good stuff and very informative. i haven't wavered off my original plays, i think we are looking at the faves and the overs in both contests. i'm down on my teaser and i'm looking at playing the faves moneyline in a parlay. both should be in the -150 area.

 

 

Let me know when your book opens Crisp, it looks like I'm SOL right now too

[rattsass]

 

hey rat, hope all is getting better in your neck of the woods. i see where 160,000+ are without electricity in missouri still. best of luck to you and your loved ones.

 

great info dre, except it took me 20 minutes to read it. just kiddin, good stuff and very informative. i haven't wavered off my original plays, i think we are looking at the faves and the overs in both contests. i'm down on my teaser and i'm looking at playing the faves moneyline in a parlay. both should be in the -150 area.

 

 

Yep, we're still alive. But still living third word style. Hooked up to the generator to type a few words.

 

Looks like everybody is leaning toward the favorites. Can't say as I blame you, but I'm thinking the opposite way. I like both dogs with the points. Which probably means you guys are all over it. I'm missing nearly everything in the playoffs.

 

But I can't let myself believe. Not in the Colts. Still. Especially giving up 3. And trust me, I've had plenty of time to think about it lately. The Colts are extremely tempting. But I just can't do it again.

 

I broke up with the Colts after the Steelers fiasco last January. I can't go there again. I am sick to death of losing betting against the Patriots. And I am sick to death of losing betting on the Colts. I will not be heavily invested in this game, but I am going to play the game exactly as history tells me to.

 

Either way it is a win win for me. Either the Colts finally slay the dragon, and Manning survives his Waterloo, and gets his Superbowl, or I get paid for my displeasure with seeing Manning choke yet again, and enduring the Patriots in the Superbowl yet again. Finally. This is a game I cannot lose.

 

I hold the key to the Superbowl berths my friends. I have angered the football Gods with my Crazy as hell pick of the week. Publicly proclaiming the opposite of my actual picks in my column every week has unfortunately stuck. So in that spirit, I give you my picks. Bears -3 Colts -3

 

Day 5 without electricity.

[Gdawg]

Good luck and stay safe, rattsass!

 

Personally, I'm liking the Colts and the Saints to win this weekend

[wildcat2334]

Ratt - for gawds sake - let go of the past .

 

This Colts team is playing with a purpose, I think they cover pretty easily at home.

[rattsass]

Ratt - for gawds sake - let go of the past .

 

This Colts team is playing with a purpose, I think they cover pretty easily at home.

 

 

Oh I agree. They should cover easily at home. And they should have last year.....and the year before.....and the year before......several hundred dollars ago as I recall.

 

Let go of the past? Jump on the bandwagon again? No no, my friend. I will push the Colts singlehandedly to a championship by predicting otherwise. I think I know how this game works now.

I propelled the Steelers to glory last year and I can do the same for the Colts. I must simply root against them. I must I tell you!!

[crispirons]

and enduring the Patriots in the Superbowl yet again.

 

 

 

this is the part that i can't see happening. america is bored with these bostonians already. two weeks of talk about the patriots will be unBEARable. this superbowl needs some fresh blood. we'll get it from the nfc for sure, hopefully the afc can deliver too.

[Steeltown Dre]

Lang is in trouble... he lost by taking KC vs Indy in the WC round. Then he took Philly over NYG and lost that.

 

After what he called "The worst NFL Playoff weekend of his career", he put a 150 DIMER on the Bears last weekend, and a 30 dimer on the Chargers.

 

As you know, both lost.

 

So what does a tout do that your avg paying customer can't do? He doubles up and posts a 300 DIMER this weekend.

 

When you post a 150 Dimer ($150,000), your clients are going to be putting up a TON of their money on it. When it loses, your clients don't have the money or the trust to double their losing wager on a team this weekend. If it works out for Lang, he can say he's up over 100 Dimes.

 

Your average bettor, who bets $500 a weekend and then raises that to about 2 Gs because you said take the Bears HUGE, will not be able to throw down 4 Gs on the Saints. Some may, but the majority are wiped out. Welcome to the world of touts:

 

Brandon Lang SUNDAY ACTION

 

300 DIME

 

New Orleans Saints

 

 

40 DIMER

 

Indianapolis Colts

 

 

10 DIMER

 

Saints/Bears OVER

[xMRogers]

beentied up. I'm just screwing around in the playoffs, going 2-2 both weeks but losing on moneylines and a few parlays.

 

This week, unfortunately, i'm down the line with Lang on Saints, colts and saints/bears over.

 

I agree that the colts play should be there - problem is we've said that before. That's the game that if we lose will be because neither team played to form....NE in a good way, Indy in a bad. (and it'll also mean Peyton Manning will be Tom Brady's bitch when they get inducted together)

 

I really like the Saints - think they will exploit a few things in Chicago's defense. I also like Chicago to put up some points, so the over there will go.

 

Probably going unit on each team, small play on Saints ML with Indy spread, and half unit on bears/saints over

[Steeltown Dre]

Lang's writeups:

 

 

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY'S NFL ACTION

IMPORTANT REMINDERM

 

If you purchased these plays as part of a One-Day Discount Package, please PRINT the analysis you're about to read, or copy it and email it to yourself, because it will not be available if you return and try to do so tomorrow.

 

If you're on a 7-day or longer package which expires after Sunday, it will naturally remain on the site each day.

 

 

300 DIME

 

New Orleans Saints

 

 

40 DIMER

 

Indianapolis Colts

 

 

10 DIMER

 

Saints/Bears OVER

 

 

Note:

I live for these moments. To put it all on the line, to extend myself to a place that other handicappers only dream about.

 

Hitting games like this is an addiction. It is what drives me. It is what I live for.

 

To get the matchup I wanted, the line I wanted and the coaches I wanted.

 

All this adds up to a winner. A winner of legandary porportions. Another big game winner from the guy who has delivered more of them than anybody in this industry.

 

Enjoy this winner today. It is a gift. It is as easy an the Florida Gators and we all know what happened there.

 

 

SAINTS

 

This whole game comes down to one matchup and one matchup only.

 

The Saints offense versus the Bears defense and I will take the Saints offense for the rest of my life and here is why:

 

In their last five games, the Bears defense has given up 27 points to the Rams, 31 to Tampa Bay, 21 to the Lions, 26 to the Packers and 24 to the Seahawks.

 

Now, let's look into those numbers above.

 

The 27 to the Rams was a catch-up situation so no harm there and the 21 to Detroit wasn't that bad either and I am being generous in saying that.

 

However, the 31 that Tampa put up on them and the 24 the Packers put up on them, two games that took place in the last 4 weeks, leads me to believe that this Bears defense is living on complete reputation and reputation only.

 

Now, after the Packers shredded them to end the season, the Bears retreated to their bye week, a full 2 weeks to prepare for Seattle or Dallas, a full 2 weeks to get healthy, a full 2 weeks to study film, a full 2 weeks to control the 8th best offense in the NFL, on their home field.

 

I had faith in the Bears last weekend figuring those two weeks would work to their benefit. Instead, what happened? After those 2 weeks, this alleged great Bears defense got lit up all day long, and if not for the horrific play calling by Mike Holmgren and his staff on a few 3rd and short situations, I would be handicapping the Saints destroying the Seahawks at home and not beating the Chicago Bears.

 

Seattle put up 18 first downs, over 300 yards total offense, 127 yards on the ground and only allowed 3 sacks to this Bears front.

 

My point to you is this. If Seattle was able to do that to the Bears, who had 2 full weeks to prepare for them, what possibly is Chicago going to do in 7 days, with the same personel, same coaches, same everything, against the #1 total offense in the NFL?

 

Not a damn thing.

 

With Sean Payton attacking the Bears defense like he has every defense this year, the Bears don't stand a chance. They really don't and in a game I am 100% sure the Saints are going to win, getting any kind of points is like stealing. Truly stealing.

 

I get the #1 total offense, #1 rush offense and #4 pass offense in the NFL going against the 11th best pass defense missing one of their best cover guys. Throw in the loss of Tommy Harris and injuries have made this a very average Chicago defense. Very average.

 

Now, I know what you are thinking. "Hey, B Lang, the Bears have the # 2 total offense in the NFL, what about them?"

 

Well, I am glad you asked. They rolled up those numbers with one of the easiest schedules in NFL history.

 

Of their 17 games this year, the Bears only played 3 teams with a winning record, only two teams with 10 wins or more. Jesus, the Florida Gators could have won 10 games in the NFL facing the Bears schedule.

 

Seriously, only 3 teams with a better than .500 record for the year. I am talking only 3 out of 17 games. Only 3 with better than .500.

 

They beat the Seahawks (9-8) twice, the Jets (10-7) and lost to the Patriots (13-4). However, in my opinion, they should have never beaten the Jets and were lucky to beat Seattle last week.

 

Every other team they played on their schedule was .500 or less.

 

I have called this team a fraud all year, made the mistake of giving them one more chance to prove me wrong last week. They didn't, and now I watch them prove me right on Sunday.

 

This is a road-tested Saints team. They will not be affected by their environment on Sunday. They went 6-2 SU and ATS on the road this year with the only two losses at Carolina in week 4 and Pittsburgh in week 10.

 

This is a Saints offense that scored more than 18 points in every game this year with exception of two, the 16 points at home to Cincy and 10 at home to Washington in the ultimate flat spot coming off that easy road win at Dallas.

 

The bottom line is this. The Saints are going to score. The Bears defense will not stop them and as this game progresses, it's going to fall into the hands of Rex Grossman, having to throw against the 3rd best pass defense in the NFL.

 

Rex Grossman will not lead the Bears into the Super Bowl. All his flaws, all his bad mechanics, all his bad reads, just everything he does wrong will come back to haunt him in this one game, the biggest game of his life, because he is just one big accident, one big disaster waiting to happen.

 

He was very lucky and fortunate to have won last week, but that luck and good fortune run out against a better coach, a better quarterback, a flat out better team that has played like it all year long, unlike the Bears, who have been flat out living on borrowed time all season long.

 

That borrowed time is up; the rent is past due. The landlord is coming to collect led by Drew Brees, Deuce McCallister, Reggie Bush and a trio of wide receivers who are going to enjoy being open against this overmatched Bears defense.

 

This game will not be close. The Saints winning margins their last 4 road games this year were 17 at Tampa Bay, 18 at Atlanta, 25 at Dallas and 23 at the New York Giants.

 

Call me crazy, but this line should be the Saints -3 and they will win this game by at least that if not double digits. It is going to happen folks, it is going to happen.

 

"O when the Saints, come marching in," they will have crushed the Chicago Bears, and they will be heading to the Super Bowl.

 

Congrats to Sean Payton. Congrats to Drew Brees. Congrats to the entire Saints organization. This is there moment. This is their time.

 

From Green Bay saying no to Sean Payton and him ending up in New Orleans, to Brees failing his physical in Miami to becomes a Saint, to the Texans saying no to Reggie Bush, it all adds up to the Super Bowl in Miami.

 

300 Dime Saints 31-20

 

 

INDY

 

Ok, I have learned my lesson.

 

I went against the Colts at home against the Bengals. I got beat. I went against the Colts at home against the Chiefs. I got beat. I went against the Colts as a dog in Baltimore last week. I got beat.

 

I will not go against them again.

 

Now, I am well aware of Brady and Belchick being 12-1 together in the playoffs. I am well aware of Brady being 10-0 in domed stadiums.

 

That won't matter today.

 

The Colts have beaten the Pats the last 2 meetings including earlier this year in Foxboro, getting the 27-20 win courtesy of Tom Brady and five turnovers.

 

However, this is the first time in the playoffs that the Colts get the Pats in the warm comforts of their dome instead of freezing Foxboro.

 

The Pats didn't win last week in San Diego. Rather, the Chargers lost. Simple as that. San Diego gift-wrapped the Pats the win. They won't be so fortunate Sunday against the Colts.

 

Now, I don't know what in the world the Colts did defensively to all of a sudden stop the run in the playoffs, which they couldn't do in the regular season.

 

In shutting down the Chiefs and the Ravens on the ground, they did it against the 11th and 12th rated rush offenses in the NFL. Now the Pats have the 6th and personally, I think they are going to have problems as well.

 

Indy is the right side of the game. In their 9 home gams this year, the Colts have been favored by 6 points or more in every single game except one, and that was the Monday night game versus the Bengals, a game they were laying 3 1/2.

 

Colts 34-16.

 

Throw out all the Patriots playoff numbers. Throw out all the Brady numbers. Throw out all the Brady/Belchick numbers. They don't mean squat Sunday.

 

You are going to see the Colts go right through this fraud of a New England defense. You are going to see Brady struggle, just like he did last week in San Diego and just like he did last year at Denver.

 

Today is about Peyton Manning putting to rest all the demons of years past and taking his Colts to the Super Bowl.

 

40 Dime Colts 38-24

 

 

SAINTS/BEARS OVER

 

I can't believe this number is this low. I really can't.

 

Just as I said last week that Seattle/Chicago would fly over the total, so will this game on Sunday as well.

 

You have the #1 and #2 rated offenses in football going at it here against below average defenses. That right there tells you the right side is the OVER.

 

Only reason why this total is so low is the anticipation of bad weather. That is the only reason and in my opinion, that won't matter as well.

 

Saints have averaged just over 29 points on the road this year, putting up over 30 in 6 of those 8 road games. I am talking about 6 here folks.

 

They put up 34 at Green Bay, 31 at Tampa, Pittsburgh and Atlanta, 42 at Dallas and 30 at New York.

 

You add the fact that 8 of the Bears' 9 home games this year have gone Over and you rest assured this one will go on the high side as well.

 

10 Dime Saints/Bears OVER