Conference Championship Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

In case you want to read what Dr. Bob has to say (he does not have any "Best Bets" or "Strong Opinions" on either game)

 

 

 

I don't have any Best Bets or Strong Opinions this week.

 

CHICAGO (-2.5) 24 New Orleans 21

 

12:00 PM Pacific, 21-Jan-07

 

If the oddsmakers were to set a line on this game prior to last week I think

Chicago would have been a 4 ½ or 5 point favorite. Suddenly the Bears are

viewed as the slightly inferior team in this match-up, despite their

superior record (14-3 versus the Saints’ 11-6), as they are favored by

less than the normal home field advantage of 3 points. Chicago certainly

didn’t look that good last week against Seattle, but the knock on their

defense is undeserved. The Bears may have given up 24 points, but they only

allowed 4.6 yppl to the Seahawks, which isn’t bad enough to say that

Chicago’s recent defensive problems are continuing. The Bears did allow an

average of 26.3 points in their final 4 regular season games, but they also

were missing at least 2 of their current starters from the secondary in all

4 of those games. Bears’ starting cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nathan

Vasher didn’t play together in the same game in the final 4 weeks of the

regular season and starting safety Todd Johnson, who took the place of the

injured Mike Brown, missed 4 of the last 5 games before returning last week.

Both starting cornerbacks and Johnson played last week and the Bears have

allowed only 4.7 yards per pass play in 13 games with both starting

cornerbacks healthy (against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppp

against an average defensive team). Chicago’s run defense got much worse

after losing Mike Brown in week 7, but the Bears have started to defend the

run at a better than average rate lately. In fact, Chicago has allowed just

3.8 ypr in 5 games with their current defensive front 7 (since DT Tommie

Harris was injured) - against teams that would combine to average 4.1 yppl

against an average defensive team. The Bears are average against the run for

the season (which is the rating I’ll use for this game) and their defense

rates at 0.5 yppl better than average with both starting cornerbacks

healthy. New Orleans’ attack is the second best in the NFL (behind the

Eagles), as they’ve averaged 6.0 yppl this season against teams that would

combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack, and the Saints have a 0.3

yppl advantage over Chicago’s defense.

Chicago’s offense is nothing special, averaging 5.1 yppl against a

schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team,

but Chicago should have decent success running the football against a

horrible Saints’ run defense has allowed 5.2 ypr this season against teams

that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defensive team. The Saints

gave up 7.0 yppl to the Eagles last week and rate at 0.1 yppl worse than

average overall for the season (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine

to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team) despite having a

solid pass defense that is 0.3 yppp better than average.

The Saints are a better overall team from the line of scrimmage, but Chicago

makes up for that difference with great special teams. My math model favors

the Chicago by 2 ½ points, so the line is actually correct, but history is

on the side of the Bears in this game. Conference Championship home teams

with a win percentage above .800 are 20-2 straight up against visiting teams

with a win percentage of less than .800 and those teams are 13-1 ATS when

not favored by 10 points or more. I would make a line on this game of

Chicago -3 and if -3 is indeed the fair line then the Bears have a 54.9%

chance of covering at -2 ½ points (50% at -3, obviously), which is a

profitable wager. I’ll lean with Chicago at -2 ½ points and suggest

passing at -3.

 

 

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.0) 26 New England 22

 

03:30 PM Pacific, 21-Jan-07

 

The Colts and Patriots meet yet again in the playoffs but neither team

really deserves to be here, winning last week more on good fortune that good

play. The Patriots were out- played by San Diego 4.5 yards per play to 5.4

yppl (after taking out spikes and kneel downs) but the Chargers fumbled the

ball away 3 times (to none for New England) after having lost just 6 fumbles

all season prior to last week. The Colts were out-gained 4.1 yppl to 4.8

yppl in Baltimore, but won 15-6 thanks in part to 2 Ravens’ fumbles (to

none for Indy). Now that the stars have aligned to give us another chapter

in this on-going saga I must try to pick a winner. It used to be a pretty

safe bet to pick against the Colts when facing Bill Belichick’s puzzling

defensive schemes (Indy was 0-7-1 ATS against New England from 2000 through

the playoff loss in January of 2005), but Peyton Manning has done a very

good job in recent meetings and the Colts have out-scored the Patriots 67-41

in 2 victories the last 2 seasons. In this season’s 27-20 home win the

Colts out-gained the Pats 5.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl and they should come close to

matching those numbers in this game.

Indianapolis has been 0.8 yppl better than average offensively this season

(6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average

offensive team) and the Patriots are only 0.1 yppl better than average

defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). New

England usually plays their best in the post-season, but that is not the

case as the Patriots have allowed 5.6 yppl in their two playoff victories

(the Jets and Chargers would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average

team). New England’s offense also hasn’t been very good in the playoffs,

averaging just 4.7 yppl against the Jets and the Chargers, who would combine

to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team. For the season the Patriots are just

average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and

Tom Brady’s 6.7 yards per pass attempt is well below the 7.8 ypa that he

average in each of the last two seasons. The Colts had trouble all season

stopping teams from running on them, but Indy’s defense has stiffened in

their two playoff victories, allowing just 3.4 ypr and 3.9 yppl in victories

over the Chiefs and Ravens. Most credit the sudden change to the return of

hard hitting safety Rob Sanders, but the Colts’ defense is no better in 6

games this season with Sanders in the lineup than they are overall. In 4

regular season and 2 post-season games with Sanders playing the Colts have

allowed an average of 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3

yppl against an average defensive team. The Colts are also 0.2 yppl worse

than average for the season on defense, so I’ll chalk up the last two

weeks to random variance and will assume that Indy’s defense is going to

play at their full season performance level. Teams that have allowed less

than 10 points in each of their last 2 games are actually only 7-16 ATS in

the playoffs (4-12 ATS at home) so there is no reason to believe that the

Colts’ defense will continue to play at such a high level. I also have

some playoff situations favoring the Colts and the technical analysis

doesn’t really favor either team.

My math model projects the Colts to have a 367 yards (at 5.9 yppl) to 318

yards (at 5.2 yppl) advantage in this game, but the Patriots have a huge

special teams edge and the projected score of my math model is 26 to 22

Colts. The line predicted by my math model has been better than the actual

pointspread historically, but the true fair line falls somewhere in between

my math model line and the actual pointspread (based on studying the 7 years

of predictions of my model against the actual line). In this case, the true

fair line should be Colts -3 ½ points, which would give Indy a profitable

55.4% chance of covering at -3 points (50% win, 9.8% push, and 40.2% loss).

However, the odds on Indianapolis -3 are between -1.15 and -1.25 and the

break-even point on the Colts -3 is - 1.24 odds, which is the chance of

winning (50.0%) divided by the chance of losing (40.2%). I will lean with

the Colts at -3 at -1.15 odds or less, which would be a 3.8% return on

investment. You can figure out what your return on investment is at the odds

you’re getting by subtracting the odds times 40.2% from 50%. For example,

if you get the Colts at -3 at -1.10 odds then your ROI would be 50% - (1.1 x

40.2%), which equals 5.78

 

 

[crispirons]

i think lang has the colts/pats game down. i just think he's wrong on the saints pick. while the bears d has been packer swiss cheese like in recent games, i have to think they come around and outright win this game with turnovers. hugh margin in picks and fumbles for the bears.

[godtomsatan]

I think I'm just staying away from everything this weekend. I really expect Chicago and New England to win, though I'm not that confident in either pick.

[godtomsatan]

A question for those watching the money come in and where the public is putting their $$$:

 

I know these games are attracting hugh dollar amounts and the general "rules of thumb" with the house shifting the line don't necessarily apply, however I'd like to ask more experienced eyes what these kinds of things mean.

 

#1: sportsbook.com says the Saints are attracting 76% of the ML bets (+110), and 64% of the spread action (+3). Why hasn't the line shifted?

 

#2: In the AFC game, the ML bet is a steadily dropping 59% on the Patriots (+145), while 72% of the spread money is coming in on the Colts at -3. Again, why hasn't the spread number changed?

 

Is it strictly the half-point off the 3? Or is there a little more to be gleamed from the line movement and where the house sides?

 

Seems to me in the NFC game, it seems peculiar that a Bears victory (by more than 3) is a killing for the house.

 

The AFC makes a little more sense, as it's playing all sides a bit.

 

Is my thinking sound on this?

[Steeltown Dre]

Tom, the books have moved the Chi/NO line, depending on where the money came in. Here is what happened at Pinny:

 

Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)

01/14/07 4:30:44 PM -3/-109 (Open) 44u -117 (Open)

01/14/07 4:40:44 PM -3/-105 43u -109

01/14/07 4:50:44 PM -3/103 43u -109

01/14/07 5:00:44 PM -3/110 43u -109

01/14/07 5:10:44 PM -3/114 43u -109

01/14/07 5:30:44 PM -3/118 43u -109

01/14/07 6:50:44 PM -1/-121 43u -109

01/14/07 7:00:44 PM -1/-125 43u -109

01/14/07 7:40:44 PM -1/-129 43u -109

01/14/07 8:30:44 PM -1/-129 43u -112

01/14/07 8:50:44 PM -1/-123 43u -112

01/14/07 8:50:59 PM -1/-123 43u -110

01/14/07 11:50:44 PM -1/-119 43u -110

01/14/07 11:50:59 PM -1/-119 43u -113

01/15/07 7:40:44 AM -1/-119 43u -110

01/15/07 8:10:43 PM -1/-119 43u -108

01/16/07 7:40:44 PM -1/-119 43 -105

01/18/07 1:50:44 PM -2.5/-106 43 -105

01/19/07 1:50:44 AM -2.5/-105 43 -105

01/19/07 1:50:59 AM -2.5/-105 43u -111

01/19/07 11:10:45 AM -2.5/-105 43u -107

01/19/07 11:20:45 AM -2.5/-106 43u -107

01/19/07 1:10:45 PM -2.5/-106 43u -110

01/19/07 2:10:44 PM -2.5/-106 43u -114

01/19/07 4:10:44 PM -2.5/-106 42.5u -109

01/19/07 5:40:44 PM -2.5/-106 42.5u -107

 

Sorry the paste job sucks, but as you can see, it opened at -3, jumped to -1, and now is -2.5. And the juice is adjusted as well.

 

Here is what Simon Noble, of Pinnacle, says about the lines for both games:

 

What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports Book?

 

New Orleans +2.5 -104 v. Chicago

 

The Bears originally opened at -3 (-120) at home in the NFC Championship Game. The early bettors pounced on the Saints with larger volume driving the price downward. Following Chicago’s narrow overtime win against Seattle last week, the public appears to be on the Saints bandwagon heading into the Championship Game. The line moved all the way down to Chicago -1 before we started receiving Bears action, which has pushed the number back up to 2.5.

 

New England +3 +110 v. Indianapolis

 

We originally opened the Colts as 3-point favorites at +104 as we expected bettors would move the line quickly off the 3. Early volume came in on Indy, but was immediately followed by buyback on the Patriots. While the bet count favors New England by a 3-to-2 ratio at this point, there is much more volume on Indianapolis reaching its first Super Bowl with Peyton Manning at the helm. As game day approaches, it won’t be shocking to see this game move off the 3 if players continue to back the Colts at home.

[Steeltown Dre]

I wanted to add this note on "Live Betting", which I use a lot and it really sometimes can produce great value. This was released from Pinnacle:

 

Live-Betting – Focus on the NFL Conference Finals

 

The NFL season inches closer to its inevitable climax, with this weekend’s Conference Championships. On marquee games such as these, players have an additional tool to make money at Pinnacle Sports: live betting. Throughout the playoffs, Pinnacle Sportsbook has been offering live betting, with reduced juice wagering that offers up to 50% better value to the player than other sports books.

 

Live betting can be very lucrative for two reasons. Firstly, whereas a normal NFL line is the product of twenty different odds makers, live lines are set on-the-fly and are typically the responsibility of one person. As a result, bettors are in a much more advantageous position, testing their wits against the one linesman in the ‘hot seat’, charged with the responsibility of managing these volatile markets.

 

Secondly, the public often misunderstands how live betting works, which creates even more opportunities for those more informed bettors. The combination of these two important factors frequently presents profitable opportunities in live online betting at Pinnacle Sports.

 

If you want to be a winning player at live betting, you need to adopt a different mid-set to that applied to regular handicapping. That said, as with regular capping you must still decide what you think the fair spread and total for the game should be prior to kick-off, so most of your homework should still be completed well in advance of the game turning live. We usually assume that the closing betting lines at Pinnacle Sports are accurate, but your handicapping could improve on this number.

 

Second, you need to estimate the probability of a team scoring on each drive. There are two key pieces of information you need to know - a typical football game has about 12 possessions per team and a scoring possession yields an average of 5.4 points in NFL. This means c. 60% of offensive scores are touchdowns in pro football. These two key pieces of information, combined with the game spread and total, allow you to estimate the odds of a team scoring on each possession.

 

Let’s take a look at the AFC Championship game between New England and Indianapolis. At the time of writing, Pinnacle Sports betting lists the Colts as 3-point favorites with a game total of 47.5. The line suggests an outcome of 25-22 in favor of Indianapolis – this score comes as close to tying the spread and total as possible. If you assume the Patriots will score 22 points in 12 possessions, you can expect New England to score about 4.1 times (22 pts / 5.4 pts per possession) or on about 34.0% of their possessions. Similarly, the Colts would be expected to score 4.6 times (25/5.4) or on 38.6% of their possessions.

 

Once you have completed these initial calculations, you’re in a position to calculate a fair line at any live point during the game, by estimating how many possessions remain for each team from there you can set your own reasonably accurate lines. This will allow you to attack any odd spread a book chooses to throw at you during the game.

 

For example, assume New England is up 20-13 at the start of the 3rd quarter. What would the fair line be at that point? Using the lines above, the Patriots are expected to score about 2.04 times in the second, while Indianapolis has an expectation of 2.32 scores. At 5.4 points per possession, the Colts would be about a 1.5 point favorite (maybe even 2.0 due to winning teams sitting on the ball near the end) for the second half.

 

While the Colts are a small favorite in the second half, they are still a large underdog (+5 to +5.5) for the game at this point. The public will often bet heavily on the team that is “supposed” to win, even late in the game. If you saw the Pats -2.5 (-105) for the game offered at the start of the second half, you would recognize this as a value bet against the public.

 

Regardless of the approach you choose, there are a few adjustments you can make to improve your accuracy. In general, favorites tend to score more points in the first half – which is why the first half lines are typically more than half of the game spread. If a team is up from 8-13 points in the 4th quarter, it tends to score less while running the ball more. Similarly, a team down 9-14 points in the 4th quarter is more likely to score on each possession while their opponent trades time for yardage. If the game is truly a blowout with a team up by 17 points or more, the scoring distribution doesn’t change as much. In high profile games such as the Conference Championships, where players are just one game from the Super Bowl itself, a team won’t hold back when up by 21 points as they might be expected to do during a regular season game.

 

At Pinnacle Sports we will be offering live betting on the Conference Championships and the Big One – Super Bowl XLI. Take a look at how the sharps are playing them before the game starts to help you adjust your line.

 

Now, what I plan to do w/ live betting is:

 

I already have Indy to win the SB. So they first need to win this game. I will be doing my best to middle that play. For instance, if Indy scores first and I can now get NE +10 at some point, I will throw some on that. But particularly towards the end of the game, if NE is down by a TD or more, I will may throw some on NE + points. Here is why:

 

In their last 3 games overall, which includes their 2 playoff games, NE has averaged 13 points in the 4th, more than in any other quarter.

 

So, from a betting perspective, it is not unwise to take NE and the points if they are down at halftime or even somepoint in the 3rd through live betting. This depends on how you see the game playing out, but given their tendancy to put up points in the 4th, this may be a smart move.

 

The thing I like about live betting is getting a key read on a team in the first quarter, combining that w/ how I capped the game from the beginning, and where the strengths and weaknesses lie. I think Indy wins this game, but of course there is the chance NE wins or loses in a close game. So I will try to get NE + points (hopefully 7 or more), but it all depends on how NE is playing. If I see Indy out to a slow and steady lead, and NE can't get their act together, I may not "throw away" money by taking NE + points in the 4th quarter. But if I see the signs that NE can come back, I gladly will put some on them.

[Vinatieri Is God]

I use live betting as a tool to middle the game and have had some fun with it. Last week's Chi/Sea game, for example. After the Bears scored on their first drive, the live line went to Sea +13 which I jumped on. After the Hawks tied it, the line dropped to Chi -7' which I tried to get but was too late. I was pissed because Chicago scored on the first or second play after that (the bomb to Berrian). Fortunately, Sea tied it at 14 with 2 minutes left before halftime and I got in with Chi -7 for the same amount. So at that point I had almost no risk ($20 of vig) and a chance to win $400 if it landed between 7 and 13. Made for a fun second half even though it didn't work out and I lost the $20.

[Gdawg]

The CHI/NO line is down to CHI +2, -110 at Betcris. IND still holding at -3, -125.

[Steeltown Dre]

The CHI/NO line is down to CHI +2, -110 at Betcris. IND still holding at -3, -125.

 

 

I know you mean -2, -110.

 

They don't really want to move it off -3, but may have to if Indy money keeps rolling in. At that point, you would have the majority of NE bettors taking +3.5 and Indy bettors hopefully already in at -3. Imagine what would happen if they did that and the game ended on a FG.

 

They books would lose out, as they would be returning all the -3 bets to everyone (be it Indy or NE), and then paying out all the NE +3.5 bets.

[Gdawg]

Oooops, yes that is what I meant

 

Yeah, very curious to see what happens to the lines from here, it will be interesting!

Edited January 20, 2007 by Gdawg

[wildcat2334]

Great Info in this thread- had a nice run last weekend playing the dogs, pounding the Sea/Chi over, and coming up short with da Bolts, which was the right play in that game but unfortunatley did not come thru.....

I am hitting Indy -3 pretty hard as well as

 

Chi/NO over 43.5 - I love that game to be over the total.

 

can't get a feel for the side- looking for some input on that actually.................

 

 

 

 

Hope y'all came out on the + side of things.

[Gdawg]

The Colts did okay by me yesterday

[xMRogers]

Lang can't win for losing - picked three things, and two came in - should have been a "good" week. Unfortunately, he pegged the loser as a HUGE bet and the two winners pretty minimal bets. While I was with him on all three, I luckily had them in reverse order....

[Steeltown Dre]

Congrats guys - hope you all won w/ Indy as well. I also took Indy -7 at for the 2nd half, when they were down 21-6. I also put a little on Indy -16 at +465. Won both and now in a great position to get a middle on the SB or just hold out and keep our profits w/ an Indy SB win.

 

It's hard to see someone ride themselves into the ground like Lang. I think heading into this weekend he was 0-7. Lost on his 150 Dimer, then throws out a 300 Dimer that loses. Absolutely pitiful...

 

Well, I'll start up a superbowl thread. Hope everyone ended up + $$ yesterday.

[Gdawg]

Congrats guys - hope you all won w/ Indy as well. I also took Indy -7 at for the 2nd half, when they were down 21-6. I also put a little on Indy -16 at +465. Won both and now in a great position to get a middle on the SB or just hold out and keep our profits w/ an Indy SB win.

 

It's hard to see someone ride themselves into the ground like Lang. I think heading into this weekend he was 0-7. Lost on his 150 Dimer, then throws out a 300 Dimer that loses. Absolutely pitiful...

 

Well, I'll start up a superbowl thread. Hope everyone ended up + $$ yesterday.

 

 

Glad to hear you did well Dre. Thanks again for all your hard work

 

I've got a Colt SB Future working too, good call this week Dre!