Bill Swerski Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 not bad, not bad - I know yer jokin with the Bears having the better overall team and being favored. Eh, I'm not really joking. I'd say that the two-tiered attack of Jones and Benson could have some serious success against a very soft Colts Font 7. Hester could also have a huge game against a terrible Colts kick coverage team that gave up 40- and 80-yd returns to the Pats last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Um, it doesn't really matter who has the better running backs - what matters is how the running offenses match up agains the run defenses. And the WR's vs the secondary and pass rush vs the 'O' line. Alittle more complicated. The Bears have the RB advantage. The Colts have the WR advantage. Colts have the QB advantage. Bears have the 'D' & ST advantage. Either 'D' is capable of stopping the run, but I think the Bears do that better. The Bears secondary goes into that 'semi-prevent' which is advantageous to Manning. If the Bears play balls out rush, they can control the passing game. Yards don't mean dick if you don't score or if the pressure is intense. On paper I see this as a good game. No blowouts, unless the wheels fall off either 'D'. The AFC is supposedly better at everything. We'll see. I know CBS is cursing right now about a Midwest SB, but I see a good game coming, not homer speak, because I truly believe the 'Any Given Sunday' axiom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 And the WR's vs the secondary and pass rush vs the 'O' line. Alittle more complicated. The Bears have the RB advantage. The Colts have the WR advantage. Colts have the QB advantage. Bears have the 'D' & ST advantage. Either 'D' is capable of stopping the run, but I think the Bears do that better. The Bears secondary goes into that 'semi-prevent' which is advantageous to Manning. If the Bears play balls out rush, they can control the passing game. Yards don't mean dick if you don't score or if the pressure is intense. On paper I see this as a good game. No blowouts, unless the wheels fall off either 'D'. The AFC is supposedly better at everything. We'll see. I know CBS is cursing right now about a Midwest SB, but I see a good game coming, not homer speak, because I truly believe the 'Any Given Sunday' axiom. The Bears will win this game if they can run the ball/control the clock and if Hester can capitalize on Indy's terrible kick/punt coverage. It'll be interesting to see if Lovie/Rivera line up Urlacher on Dallas Clark on obvious passing downs. Clark's ability to play through his sprained knee has helped Indy's O immeasurably so far. I imagine that Urlacher will give him fits in coverage, though. I expect to see a lot more Wayne and Harrison than usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 (edited) The Bears will win this game if they can run the ball/control the clock and if Hester can capitalize on Indy's terrible kick/punt coverage. It'll be interesting to see if Lovie/Rivera line up Urlacher on Dallas Clark on obvious passing downs. Clark's ability to play through his sprained knee has helped Indy's O immeasurably so far. I imagine that Urlacher will give him fits in coverage, though. I expect to see a lot more Wayne and Harrison than usual. Agree. I know Urlacher is overrated , but how many MLB's can cover 20-30 yards from the line of scrimmage and have an effect? Clark is, IMHO, one of the better TE's in the league, when you compare WR/TE combos. The Colts have an awesome passing attack. It's down right scary, but beatable. As I said, it WILL be a good SB, regardless of their originating geographical areas. Edited January 23, 2007 by rocknrobn26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URLACHERisGOD Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Grossman may not be the next Jim McMahon by any means. However, let's look at the playoff stats up to this point: Passing Yards: Manning 787 on 115 attempts (6.84 yds/att) Grossman 426 on 64 attempts (6.66 yds/att) Passing TDs: Manning: 2 Grossman: 2 Passing INTs: Manning: 6 Grossman: 1 Longest Pass: Manning: 52 yards Grossman: 68 yards Passer Rating: Manning: 66.8 Grossman: 75.4 No, Grossman is nothing to brag about. However, he has gotten the job done for Chicago. Only 1 INT in the past 2 games. Manning (on the other hand) has stunk it up in the playoffs, as usual. I don't see how "Playoff" Manning is any better than Grossman. Look at the numbers folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Grossman may not be the next Jim McMahon by any means. However, let's look at the playoff stats up to this point: Passing Yards: Manning 787 on 115 attempts (6.84 yds/att) Grossman 426 on 64 attempts (6.66 yds/att) Passing TDs: Manning: 2 Grossman: 2 Passing INTs: Manning: 6 Grossman: 1 Longest Pass: Manning: 52 yards Grossman: 68 yards Passer Rating: Manning: 66.8 Grossman: 75.4 No, Grossman is nothing to brag about. However, he has gotten the job done for Chicago. Only 1 INT in the past 2 games. Manning (on the other hand) has stunk it up in the playoffs, as usual. I don't see how "Playoff" Manning is any better than Grossman. Look at the numbers folks. Numbers do not tell the story obviously, interesting, but not even remotely comparable. Like comparing Kobe to Carmelo Anthony because they both average 30 points a game- How about turnovers?, or Rex being on the brink of fumbling the game away like the Sea game. Or missing wide open TE in the endzone against NO. - He is awful, and It would not surprise me if he single handidly does not give Chi a chance to compete and make it a close game. Rex is terrible, and benefitted from the Sea/NO D's to actually comeplete some balls. Peyton has beaten Balt/NE - much different ballgame. He will need to do more than get the job done to win the SB - and I dont think he has it in him. Rex constantly misses wide open guys and then can rally and make some throws once in a while. Not a good thing going into the SB, hoping yous starting QB has to just not make mistakes and blow the game. I see Manning have a HUGH day against Chi now that some of the pressure is off him a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Colts by double-digits. The Bears have not been good against the pass and Manning will make them pay. As long as the Colts don't forget to run the ball - I mean pound away with Rhodes and use Addai around the corners - I really think they win this one with ease. Chicago's D is rated 7th - out of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year. I tire of hearing how great their defense is - it just isn't close to what it was early in the season. If Indy's D reverts to the terrible run D they had for most of the season, Chicago wins this pulling away. Jones and Benson are a great tandem. The Colts front 7 has stiffened some, so I don't think this will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Chicago's D is rated 7th - out of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year. I tire of hearing how great their defense is - it just isn't close to what it was early in the season. And I tire of hearing this "rated" bollocks. It's the turnovers that matter and the Bears are the best at that. If they can get a +2 or +3 TO ratio, they'll win this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 (edited) No, Grossman is nothing to brag about. However, he has gotten the job done for Chicago. Only 1 INT in the past 2 games. Manning (on the other hand) has stunk it up in the playoffs, as usual. I don't see how "Playoff" Manning is any better than Grossman. Look at the numbers folks. Yeah, Manning really "stunk it up" by leading that 32-point 2nd half comeback against the elite Pats defense on Sunday. Your analysis is flawed because you're overlooking the fact that Grossman played some absolutely awful secondaries in the playoffs. Come on, you're bragging about being able to throw on the Saints and Seahawks? I'd love to see how Rex Turnover would've played against the Ravens or Patriots. Oh, wait, Rex already sucked big-time against the Pats during the regular season: 3 picks, a fumble, and no TDs. I'll bet that he wouldn't have fared much better against Ty Law and Patrick Surtain, either. Jesus, he got absolutely school by the Packers and Cardinals defenses! Rex can manage a game effectively, but you'd better pray that his mediocre O-line can stop Freeney and Mathis and that the Colts don't get up by two scores early. Rex can't play from behind and he's a disaster under pressure. Edited January 23, 2007 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Rex can manage a game effectively, but you'd better pray that his mediocre O-line can stop Freeney and Mathis and that the Colts don't get up by two scores early. Rex can't play from behind and he's a disaster under pressure. Agree with most of this but the O-line is not mediocre. It is the same one that took Thomas Jones nearly 70 yards on his own on Sunday. It's not the league's best but it is not mediocre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Agree with most of this but the O-line is not mediocre. It is the same one that took Thomas Jones nearly 70 yards on his own on Sunday. It's not the league's best but it is not mediocre. The Saints D was 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 31st in yards/carry this year. No wonder Jones and Benson ran all over them. Perhaps I'm being a bit harsh by calling them "mediocre." I guess that "average" would be a better word. They've struggled at times this year... a lot more than last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URLACHERisGOD Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 How about turnovers?, or Rex being on the brink of fumbling the game away like the Sea game. Or missing wide open TE in the endzone against NO. - He is awful, and It would not surprise me if he single handidly does not give Chi a chance to compete and make it a close game. 6 INTS vs. 1....let's talk about those turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 6 INTS vs. 1....let's talk about those turnovers. How about the Ravens, Patriots, and Chiefs defenses vs. the Seahawks and Saints defenses... let's talk about those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Colts win big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URLACHERisGOD Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 How about the Ravens, Patriots, and Chiefs defenses vs. the Seahawks and Saints defenses... let's talk about those. We've been hearing this garbage all year: "Bears are in the worst division", "Bears haven't played anybody", "blah blah blah'. Bottom line is: Bears are going to the Superbowl. The Bears are the best team in the NFC. Lovie Smith knows how to win. Rex Grossman knows how to win. Brian Urlacher knows how to win. Thomas Jones knows how to win. The entire Chicago Bears roster knows how to win. All this will continue on February 4th in Miami. You may as well start working on your "the officials suck" excuses now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 I don't see how "Playoff" Manning is any better than Grossman. Fruit punch or strawberry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 We've been hearing this garbage all year: "Bears are in the worst division", "Bears haven't played anybody", "blah blah blah'. The Bears couldn't beat New England or Miami. Grossman sucked nuts in both games. Peyton Manning beat both (the former twice) and played well in all three matchups. He also took down the best two defenses in the AFC on his way to the SB. Grossman got to the SB by beating the mediocre Seahawks and Saints defenses. The Bears are an excellent team and have certainly earned their trip to the SB. But don't give me this "Peyton threw 6 INTs in the playoffs" crap. Grossman's defensive matchups in the playoffs were a joke and he's absolutely bitten it all season long against most good defenses (and even below-average ones like the Cardinals and Packers). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Colts win big. not to single out sarge here, as this seems to be the sentiment/concensus on the boards here besides the bears homers. YOU ARE ALL <Ban me! Ban me now!>ING NUTS!!! how many teams did the colts blowout this yr?? who were they and when??? just curious, how many games did the bears lose by double digits. anyway, i don't want to change anyones opinions as i would love to see this line stay the same.........this is a gift for bear backers i have to believe. joe q public loses with regularity. you think they are going to let all you colt backers stick it to vegas........HAHAHAHAHA. ON the biggest betting day of the yr???? <crispirons shaking his head at all of you> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Puddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 (edited) not to single out sarge here, as this seems to be the sentiment/concensus on the boards here besides the bears homers. YOU ARE ALL <Ban me! Ban me now!>ING NUTS!!! how many teams did the colts blowout this yr?? who were they and when??? just curious, how many games did the bears lose by double digits. anyway, i don't want to change anyones opinions as i would love to see this line stay the same.........this is a gift for bear backers i have to believe. joe q public loses with regularity. you think they are going to let all you colt backers stick it to vegas........HAHAHAHAHA. ON the biggest betting day of the yr???? <crispirons shaking his head at all of you> I think Da Bears definitely have a shot at the game, but If I was forced to make a wager I'd go with the Colts. This is Manning's year and he isn't going to choke after delivering one of the most clutch comebacks in playoff history. The Jekyll/Hyde Grossman factor can come into play at any time and I think he will be tighter than a 11-year old boys anus. I saw my battered/injured/duct taped Seahawks come 10 yards and a 45-yard FG attempt away (two times) from sending the Bears to one and done land for 2 years in a row, with Rex playing great, at Chicago. Alexander got over 100 yards and 2 TDs when he had struggled against almost everybody all season long. Brees passed for over 350 yards at Soldier Field. I know some Bear fans are senstive to outisde assessments of their defense, but it isn't all that great and Manning is licking his chops getting ready to throw on the porous devensive secondary. Bellichik had some success running against the Colts in the first half, so Chicago needs to do the same. I think that the Bears need to have a 2+ turnover advantage, 1 great special teams play, and a good showing by Jones/Benson to win this. But I think the advantage of Manning vs. the Bears secondary will be too much to overcome at the end. Edited January 23, 2007 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Bellichik had some success running against the Pats in the first half, so Chicago needs to do the same. Do you mean against the Colts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slickvick Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Bears win if and only if they can rush for 250 yards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 Do you mean against the Colts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 this article is from chris david. good read. Last year, a record $94.5 million was wagered in Nevada on Super Bowl XL, and the state's 176 sports books won $8.8 million, according to figures from the Gaming Control Board. The total betting handle on the big game increased for the fifth straight season and breaking the $100 million mark seems inevitable this year, especially with the popular matchup on tap. Indianapolis and Chicago will meet from Dolphin Stadium on Feb. 4, 2007 in Miami, Florida in Super Bowl XLI. The AFC has dominated the NFC in the big game, winning five of six and seven of the past nine Super Bowls and oddsmakers aren’t expecting that streak to end this year. The Colts have been tabbed as seven-point favorites, with the total listed at 49. The point-spread is set by the books to get equal action on both teams, but some experts think the number is off. Chicago owns an impressive 7-1 record on the road this year. (AP Images) “I think the line is very high. If this was a regular season game at Indy, the line might be 4½ to 5-points. When factoring in a homefield edge, we're essentially saying that right now if the Super Bowl was being played in Indy, it would be 9½ or 10,” said Stations Casino senior bookmaker Micah Roberts. Indy was exceptional at home this year, producing a perfect 10-0 straight up and 7-3 against the spread mark. However, the Colts were 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS when playing outside of RCA Dome. On the other hand, the Bears were 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS on the road, with the lone loss coming in a 17-13 setback at New England. The total seems a bit high for a postseason contest, but it’s not the first time the Super Bowl has seen a number in this range. Nine of the first 40 Super Bowl contests have seen an ‘over/under’ of 49 or greater. Apparently, the experts are pretty sharp since the ‘over’ is 6-3 in those games. Roberts added, “Based on the way the Colts want to play, slow and trudging, and the way the Bears play, the under looks good. Should the Colts be forced into a track meet like was the case against the Pats, then the over will be shattered. I'd lean towards the over.” It’s been said that the key to winning your wager on the Super Bowl is by tossing out the point-spread and just pick the winner. Makes sense considering the spread has only factored in seven of the 40 Super Bowls. Don’t be shy about laying the wood with the favorite and if you like the underdog, then bet the money-line rather than grabbing the points. “Depending on the bettor’s thoughts of which way the line goes, the money line always has value. For the Bears, a true money line value at 7 points is +250 (Bet $100 to win $250); if you think the line is too high and yet still can get +210 (Bet $100 to win $210) then take it and take it fast because that will be ate up quickly by the masses,” explains Roberts. “The Super Bowl money line is always the most out of whack line of the year, which means that you also get tremendous value on laying a price. For the Bears, I believe the true line in the game is 4½, so getting +210 is great value instead of getting the traditional +180 on a 4½ line. If you like the Colts, why not lay -240 (Bet $240 to win $100), a price that treats the game like a 5½ spread when the game is really 7. “ Super Bowl XLI marks the eighth time in 41 games that the favorite is laying a touchdown and right now it appears as if the books are getting equal action on both sides. This is the most common spread in the big game, with the three-point margin listed six times. Roberts noted, “I would think the line will go down, probably not until next week however.” For all you Colts’ backers out there, you better be aware that seven-point favorites in the big game have won the majority of the time, yet haven’t covered the spread. Super Bowl History of Seven-Point Favorites SB Year Matchup Score Line ATS Results XXXIX 2005 New England-Philadelphia 24-21 7, 46.5 Underdog, Under XXXVIII 2004 New England-Carolina 32-29 7, 37.5 Underdog, Over XXXIV 2000 St. Louis-Tennessee 23-16 7, 47.5 Push, Under XXVI 1992 Washington-Buffalo 37, 24 7, 49 Favorite, Over XXV 1991 N.Y. Giants-Buffalo 20-19 7, 40.5 Underdog, Under XXIII 1989 San Francisco-Cincinnati 20-16 7, 48 Underdog, Under X 1976 Pittsburgh-Dallas 21-17 7, 36 Underdog, Over The favorite is 6-1 SU, but only 1-5-1 ATS. The only underdog to pull the outright upset was New York in Super Bowl XXV, when the Giants nipped Buffalo, 20-19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squeegiebo Posted January 23, 2007 Share Posted January 23, 2007 I think Colts win but don't cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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