Superbowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

 

I had a great weekend last weekend, winning w/ some great juice on halftime plays on the Indy game, as well as a straight bet on the Indy ML.

 

This gives me a 13-3 record in the last 16 days of football in terms of winning days vs. losing days.

 

Of course, I still have a good amount on Indy +150 to win the SB, which is the play I advocated last week. I knew that should Indy win, they would be installed as a substantial favorite. Which they were, at -7.

 

That is what the line opened at, Indy -7 for -103.

 

After early money was somewhat split, slightly heavier on Indy, money began to roll in on the Bears. The line shifted to Indy -6.5, +103.

 

Right now I am showing 55% ATS on the Bears and 82% ML on the Bears.

 

I will be back w/ input into the game throughout the week. Although I have a Indy ML on the game already, I will approach it as if I had nothing on the game already, and try to determine the value in the line. But know that my Indy futures bet is a large one, and unless I am very confident that the Bears could cover 7 or win the game, I will most likely stick w/ the Indy ML. I will also add that there is very little chance I would take Indy -7, as I already have Indy ML at + money. The only chance I would do that is if I am so confident Indy wins by DD, and want to make more money.

 

Please drop your analysis and predictions here.

[wildcat2334]

Good stuff Dre- looking to cap off a 4-1 divisional weekend, and 2-0 last weekend with a nice SB. No heavy analyis other than Indy is playing well, the D with a newfound intensity, and they should feed off the big 2nd half against NE. Chi - weak NFC get's exposed, as does an overrated D of late, and throw in some Rex , and I think it could be a long day for da Bears.

 

Indy 34

Chi 20

 

Hitting Indy -6.5 pretty hard

 

Also on the Over

[Gdawg]

I too have a Futures Bet on the Colts, thanks to Dre

 

Personally I like IND -6.5. I've felt (as many have) all year that the winner of the AFC would take the SB fairly easily.

[Rockerbraves]

Personally I like IND -6.5. I've felt (as many have) all year that the winner of the AFC would take the SB fairly easily.

 

 

Most thought the AFC was the stronger conference however they also thought the Bears were the best of the NFC. Not sure if the Colts are the best of the AFC. So this matchup is likely one of the best the NFC could hope for.

Edited January 24, 2007 by Rockerbraves

[Gdawg]

Most thought the AFC was the stronger conference however they also thought the Bears were the best of the NFC. Not sure if the Colts are the best of the AFC. So this matchup is likely one of the best the NFC could hope for.

 

 

I think the top FOUR finishers from the AFC would dismantle the Bears

[i_am_the_swammi]

Of course, I still have a good amount on Indy +150 to win the SB, which is the play I advocated last week. I knew that should Indy win, they would be installed as a substantial favorite. Which they were, at -7.

 

 

 

Solid analysis, Dre, and congrats on the winning days over hte last month.

 

Once question for you...why is your Indy future only +150? Did you place the wager just before this past weekend's games? I seem to remember it being +300 (perhaps even more) prior to the start of the divisional games two weeks ago. Did it drop down to just +150 after they beat the Chargers?

 

As for the game itself, I'm going against the tide and picking the Bears. Indy got very lucky the Pats took their foot off their throats and let them back into the game. Amazingly, the Pats seemed to look gassed as the game wore on (playing in the warm dome?)....the Bears, on the other hand, appeared to get stronger as their game wore on, and their defense created havoc for the timing-reliant Saint offense, causing turnovers and disrupting pass routes.

 

I see a similar outcome of the Super Bowl....the Colts will be unable to run the ball (their running game seems less potent than the duo of Bush/McCallister), and be forced to air it out. Just as the Bears were able to pressure Brees, they should be all over Manning (as the Pats were early on). And when Manning is pressured, he makes mistakes.

 

Bears win the turnover battle yet again, resulting in better field position throughout the game...and even Rex can take advantage of a 40-yard field. With Jones and Benson running well, TOP will also be in the Bears favor, and the Colts will be pressured into making every possession count. Problem is, they won't.

 

Bears 26, Colts 20

[i_am_the_swammi]

So this matchup is likely one of the best the NFC could hope for.

 

 

Really? I would think that, of the AFC playoff teams, the Jets or Chiefs, and perhaps even the Ravens, would have been the teams the NFC would have hoped to advance.

 

Why would someone want to play the Colts over the Jets?

[wildcat2334]

Most thought the AFC was the stronger conference however they also thought the Bears were the best of the NFC. Not sure if the Colts are the best of the AFC. So this matchup is likely one of the best the NFC could hope for.

 

 

Not sure they are the best of the AFC? They are playing at a pretty high level. I would argue that Chi is not necessarily the best of the NFC. Not sure if you watched the Sea/Chi - but a decimated Sea team had their shot at a win at Soldier field, and I think Sea at somewhat full strength takes them out rather easily.

 

Not impressed with the Bears of late in any way.

[Steeltown Dre]

Solid analysis, Dre, and congrats on the winning days over hte last month.

 

Once question for you...why is your Indy future only +150? Did you place the wager just before this past weekend's games? I seem to remember it being +300 (perhaps even more) prior to the start of the divisional games two weeks ago. Did it drop down to just +150 after they beat the Chargers?

 

 

 

You are absolutely right swammi. Placing an Indy futures bet several weeks ago would have resulted in a much higher return.

 

My bet was placed prior to the games last week. It was my "Pick" for the games last week, mainly due to value. Therefore, someone could deduce I liked Indy ML for the NE game, which is essentially what I played both before the game for little value, and at halftime for incredible value.

 

However, getting back to the pick. My reasoning for taking Indy +150 last week was:

 

That is why the best play this weekend, in my opinion, is Indy to win the SB at +150.

 

For a couple of reasons. First, I feel OK about -3, I like -2.5 better, but I like ML the most. But right now you would only get Indy ML for around -165. That is pretty harsh. As it stands now, Pinny has -3 at -118, and -2.5 at -144. Both are tough to swallow.

 

Second, if Indy wins this game, I think you will see them installed as fairly substantial favorites, well above 3 points. If you predict a close SB game that may be won by the underdog or may result in a close loss to the Colts, you could shoot for the middle and take the points. Either way, you now have the favorite at + money and don't have to lay points.

 

The only reason not to take Indy +150 to win the SB is if you think the NFC winner will beat the Colts. Then you could cough up and take Indy ML this weekend, or more reluctantly, Indy -2.5.

 

 

I felt that laying the points in what would be a close game, especially at minus juice (-144 for -2.5) would be very slim on value. Whereas +150 for the SB represented incredible value in a game (the game vs NE) I felt would be won by the Colts.

 

The game unfolded opposite as I had envisioned - I envisioned the Colts taking the lead, and then saw myself taking NE + points at halftime or late in the 3rd in live betting, hopeful for a middle. However, the opposite happened, and there was so much value in my halftime bet of Indy -15 for 2nd half at +465. I could have gotten it even higher than that, but missed the shot.

 

Right now for the SB, Indy ML is -250. I have them for 300 better at +150. Huge advantage now, and a great opportunity for the middle if, after running the numbers and further analysis, I see the Bears playing this game close.

 

I am a value bettor, so anytime you can have an edge in either points or juice, you have to jump on it, especially if you are putting a good % of your bankroll on it.

 

I didn't lay anything on futures earlier in the season on any team, although I was very interested in taking Saints to win NFC after they lost at home to Cincy Nov 19th. They had just lost 3 out of their last 4, after starting out 5-1. Their value was incredible at that point. But that bet, though close, would have lost.

 

I don't really play futures, I prefer individual game bets. But I felt Indy +150, after seeing the juice for taking them -3 or -2.5 (vs NE), represented a great value play, especially now that they were -7 in the SB.

 

The other thing to note on the Futures side of things: The future on the underdog is not going to offer you as much value if you try to hedge. Meaning, say you took Chi to win the SB last week, prior to their NO game. I think it may have been around +350. But you had to win 2 games just to get that +350. Meanwhile, now that the SB is here, you can still make that same bet and get around +250 or +230. By taking Bears ML in the SB. So really you gained only 100 (+350 vs +250). And had to win both games.

 

And if you wanted to hedge (and try to ensure + money) and take the Colts, you have 2 problems:

 

#1 there is no way to ensure + money. You could only ensure you win one of your 2 bets by taking Colts ML, but Colts ML has STEEP juice, (-250 as I said above).

#2 there is no way to middle. Taking Colts ATS gives 6 points (1-6) for the Colts to win by and you lose both bets.

 

But if you do like I did, and take the odds on favorite, which by the Conf Championships, was the Colts, you are still getting +150 at that point, and should they get to the SB, you now have the perfect opportunity to

 

#1 either take the Bears ML of +250, and now you have + juice on both sides of the bet, ensuring + money on the outcome, no matter who wins

#2 take the Bears +6.5 for +100 right now (or buy it to 7), and have a perfect middle opportunity to win both bets (and both for + money right now)

#3 do nothing and keep your Indy ML of +150

#4 add to it by taking Indy -6.5 for -108 right now, if you feel really confident

 

I guess a lot of people would rather take the dog when it comes down to the final 4 teams, because they see the +350 on them to win the SB, but you really are losing a lot of value at that point, w/ no middle opportunities or ways to guarantee + money in the SB game.

 

Good luck this week. Good discussions so far guys.

 

As for Chi getting lucky for only winding up w/ Indy: I won't even talk about NYJ or KC or some of those other teams. What about the final 4 from the AFC: I saw SD as more of a pretender team, and a team Chi could really take advantage of w/ a rookie QB and weak secondary. The problem would have been LT, but no point in debating that now. Balt was a team w/ a pretty weak "power run game" (as some call it), and a defense that bends but does not break. I think Chi would have plenty to play w/ in both those games. Clearly Indy is hot right now, and I think Chi is definitely not glad they are facing Indy. I'm sure they would not be happy about facing NE, either. Everyone all year said Indy's run D is their weakness, they will never win w/ that run D.

 

Yet they are playing on another level right now, holding NE to 3.9 (which includes that 35 monster run by Dillon on 4th down), holding Balt to 4.2, and KC to 2.6 ypr.

 

Also, in terms of value, 2 weeks ago the line for the SB was AFC -5.5 vs NFC. So the line is even more inflated towards the AFC right now. Perhaps from public perspective, due to the way Indy has been playing, or the fears that Grossman is inadequate.

 

I'll be able to provide a lot more insight once I really get into the numbers of this game. While it is the SB and "one single game", you can run into trouble if you just toss out numbers and take the best team in your head (or heart).

 

Afterall, how many people looked at NEP in 05 or 04, laying only a TD to Philly (w/ a hurt TO) or Carolina and laid the 7, and wound up losing.

 

In fact, aside from Pittsburgh covering last year's SB, in the last 10 SBs, the favorite has only covered (not pushed, covered) in 2 of 10 games. Not saying to take the dog here because of just that. You would have lost last year using that line of thinking.

 

Just saying, running the numbers don't hurt, and putting in time to cap the game yourself rather than using your gut instinct is sometimes very valuable.

 

SUPER BOWL HISTORY

SB Year Winner Loser Total Location

XL 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) 21 Seattle Seahawks 10 47, UNDER Detroit, MI

XXXIX 2005 New England Patriots (-7) 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 46.5, UNDER Jacksonville, FL

XXXVIII 2004 New England Patriots (-7) 32 Carolina Panthers 29 37.5, OVER Houston, TX

XXXVII 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) 48 Oakland Raiders 21 44, OVER San Diego, CA

XXXVI 2002 New England Patriots (+14) 20 St. Louis Rams 17 53, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XXXV 2001 Baltimore Ravens (-3) 34 New York Giants 7 33, OVER Tampa, FL

XXXIV 2000 St. Louis Rams (-7) 23 Tennessee Titans 16 47.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA

XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos (-7.5) 34 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER Miami, FL

XXXII 1998 Denver Broncos (+11) 31 Green Bay Packers 24 49, OVER San Diego, CA

XXXI 1997 Green Bay Packers (-14) 35 New England Patriots 21 49, OVER New Orleans, LA

XXX 1996 Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 51, UNDER Tempe, AZ

Edited January 25, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Rockerbraves]

I think the top FOUR finishers from the AFC would dismantle the Bears

 

 

From a NFC stand point the Bears were always considered the big favorite in the NFC is what I meant. Colts were probably the AFC favorite most the season, but not nearly as much as the Bears.

[Rovers]

Good stuff Dre- looking to cap off a 4-1 divisional weekend, and 2-0 last weekend with a nice SB. No heavy analyis other than Indy is playing well, the D with a newfound intensity, and they should feed off the big 2nd half against NE. Chi - weak NFC get's exposed, as does an overrated D of late, and throw in some Rex , and I think it could be a long day for da Bears.

 

Indy 34

Chi 20

 

Hitting Indy -6.5 pretty hard

 

Also on the Over

 

 

How hard is "pretty hard"? I guess that means you still won't be sending the 20 bucks you lost to me back in week 13?

[crispirons]

"pretty hard"? I guess that means you still won't be sending the 20 bucks you lost to me back in week 13?

 

 

 

what he meant to say is that he is going to be losing hard when he plays the colts and over, and then especially will have no money to pay you your 20.

 

 

anyway, the bears have been disrespected all yr after the arizona game. why should it change now. WHEN they handle the colts on the line of scrimmage and win the turnover battle once again, will people start to believe??? i don't think so. people just don't give enough credit for the physical beating that the bears administer to other teams. you can't find that on a stat sheet.

[godtomsatan]

I agree with crispy and his homer glasses.

[rattsass]

Having tanked my way through the playoffs for the second straight year, I really can't say I have a handle on anything here.

 

I didn't figure either of these teams to be here, but as some were saying before the playoffs started, this is a great year for a GOOD team to win the Superbowl. And so it shall be.

 

The Bears are hard to put a finger on. They kill their opponents with a slow seemingly inconspicuous style. They don't pound you over the head. They slowly suck the life out of you. Much like the Patriots teams of the last 5 years. If you are a Bears fan, you are excited and confident in the Bears ability to win this game. But to most of us, it's hard to get too excited about them.

 

The Colts, to me present a similar challenge to the Bears as the Saints did. Lots of offensive firepower. The Bears (in my opinion) benefitted to some degree by hosting the Saints on one of the most God -awful playing surfaces ever trotted out for a championship game. And the fact that there were no penalties called on the Bears until late in the 4th quarter also was a huge advantage.

 

I have been riding the underdogs plus the points in just about every one this century, with the exception of the Ravens when they were favored by 3. And for the most part that has been a good play with the underdog winning outright or covering the spread.

 

While I think there is at least a good chance that the Colts dust the Bears by double digits, I can't really convince myself they will even win the game for sure.

 

Dre had the right idea last week to take the futures on the Colts. Now having not done that, I do not feel real comfortable about this game at all. And given my record over the last 3 weeks, I guess that just comes naturally.

 

But, I do feel compelled to make a pick, and of course at least a small wager. On my site it still lists the Bears at +7 (-115) and that is probably the way I will want to go. I think this game should stay fairly close if Rex can keep his cool. The Colts haven't been blowing anybody away (for the whole season) so I have a hard time believing they will cover this lofty spread.

 

If I were going to make a large wager on this game I would probably go teaser with the Bears and the over. But considering my recent picks, a large wager in this one probably won't be happening. I really see this as a 4-6 point game, so the Bears plus the points would be my pick......I guess. Sorry Bears.

 

The kiss of death has been laid upon you.

[Rockerbraves]

If I were going to make a large wager on this game I would probably go teaser with the Bears and the over. But considering my recent picks, a large wager in this one probably won't be happening. I really see this as a 4-6 point game, so the Bears plus the points would be my pick......I guess. Sorry Bears.

 

The kiss of death has been laid upon you.

 

 

Maybe not the kiss of death since you say you will only be placing a small wager on the game. Isn't that the way it works when you're on abit of a losing streak.

[crispirons]

If you are a Bears fan, you are excited and confident in the Bears ability to win this game. But to most of us, it's hard to get too excited about them.

 

excited and confident yes. overconfident no. and i do see your point about not getting too excited, unless you are a bears fan. they have shown signs of weakness throughought the yr. lets not forget there strengths and if they impose there will, manning won't matter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I really see this as a 4-6 point game, so the Bears plus the points would be my pick......I guess. Sorry Bears.

 

The kiss of death has been laid upon you.

 

 

 

 

i see no kiss of death. bears outright win not just cover.

[wildcat2334]

what he meant to say is that he is going to be losing hard when he plays the colts and over, and then especially will have no money to pay you your 20.

anyway, the bears have been disrespected all yr after the arizona game. why should it change now. WHEN they handle the colts on the line of scrimmage and win the turnover battle once again, will people start to believe??? i don't think so. people just don't give enough credit for the physical beating that the bears administer to other teams. you can't find that on a stat sheet.

 

 

 

Crisp- keep upwith the Chi Kool Aid - Physical beating? this is nonsense - I watched the Sea/NO game very closely- Sea was missing a TON of guys, and if healthy they beat da Bears in that game easily. I didn't see them same D I saw earlier in the year- Sea was running the ball easily and I didn't se any physical beating going on. This game could very well get away from Chicago and they are behind 17-3 having to play catch up. I have been on the dogs most of the playoffs - not here.

 

I am an NFC guy, and will be in Chi over SB weekend- just think it is Indy all the way

 

I got news for ya, I think the turnover battle will be won by Indy -

 

Rex Grossman? SB Chanpion QB- aint't gonna happen

[rattsass]

The worm has turned. Hit a couple of nice bets over the last few days. Don't bet much on non-football, but have been hitting everything over the last 72 hours.

 

As part of those plays I came up with a half baked (yet effective...so far) solution to my Superbowl betting plans, cross sport parlays that include the Colts moneyline at the back end . Right now I am set up to clear a Benjamin with a Colts win. Would have been set up to be +230 had the Clippers not clipped the Nets last night with a 3 point buzzer beater.

 

Also have a couple of smaller plays working with the Bears +7, so I am in real cheap and middling that nice juicy seven point spread.

 

Now if I can just string together a few more of those in the next seven days, this game will get more and more interesting for me.

 

My streaks are frightening. I'm either red hot or dead cold. I am the streakiest gambler I know. I just need nine more days...........

[crispirons]

colts fans and wildcat......do you realize that the colts have lost there last 3 games played on grass. hmmm, whats the surface in miami???? grassy grassy grassy. those 3 they lost were to some powerhouses too....the jags, the titans, and the powerful texans. examining road records for the teams (how i handicap college bowl games-look at road records cause thats where they will be playing even though neutral field) we find new england with 3 quality wins @ giants, jets, and pats. all during there 9 game win streak to start the yr. THEIR LAST 4 ROAD TRIPS ALL RESULTED IN LOSSES. 3 on the grass. the bears on the other hand, lost one road tilt all yr, at new england, the last game of a 3 game road trip to the east coast after already beating two playoff teams the giants and jets. i think we can forgive them that loss to new england, which was a tight game the bears could have won. anyway, thought i'd share that info with you because we all know the bears have no chance......right????

[rattsass]

This discussion makes me glad I have no homer ties to either team. Much easier to handicap games with a more clinical and sanitized viewpoint.

 

If I were a Bears fan like Crispy, I would probably be all over the Bears and the points, and probably the moneyline too. I figure lots of Bears fans (and the team) feel insulted by the touchdown spread in this game. We understand that. But we also know the books set the spread to keep the bets on both sides as even as possible. I don't think there is a lot of disprespect toward the Bears. I think a lot of people have just resigned themselves to the fact that this is Peyton's year to get it done. People want to bet on the team they think will win the game, and a lot of them don't care how many points they have to give up to do it.

 

I do think it is interesting though, that the public money is starting to favor the Bears with the points. Not too much disparity at this point, but if the Bears money keeps rolling in I would be very nervous of being heavily invested on that side of the wager. Even though I think it is the right bet. Every time I am in line with the public money I seem to take a beating. Coincidence? I think not.

[crispirons]

these are the numbers i've been seeing. the moneyline has all been bears because of the value but the spread has actually gone a little towards indy. at least where i have been tracking, the percentage has dropped from the bears getting over 60% of the sprad bets early to 55% it stands at now.

 

 

101 IND 10% 45% 71%

102 CHI 90% 55% 29%

 

 

first number is moneyline,,,,bears at 90%. 2nd number is spread which is close to even. the last number is the over/under. people are expecting big numbers in this game. i think it might be a bit tighter played than that.

[rattsass]

I don't think there will be much disparity by the time it is all said and done. I still think there will be more money coming in on the Colts this week to keep things pretty even.

Edited January 27, 2007 by rattsass

[Steeltown Dre]

colts fans and wildcat......do you realize that the colts have lost there last 3 games played on grass. hmmm, whats the surface in miami???? grassy grassy grassy. those 3 they lost were to some powerhouses too....the jags, the titans, and the powerful texans. examining road records for the teams (how i handicap college bowl games-look at road records cause thats where they will be playing even though neutral field) we find new england with 3 quality wins @ giants, jets, and pats. all during there 9 game win streak to start the yr. THEIR LAST 4 ROAD TRIPS ALL RESULTED IN LOSSES. 3 on the grass. the bears on the other hand, lost one road tilt all yr, at new england, the last game of a 3 game road trip to the east coast after already beating two playoff teams the giants and jets. i think we can forgive them that loss to new england, which was a tight game the bears could have won. anyway, thought i'd share that info with you because we all know the bears have no chance......right????

 

 

I certainly would never say the bears have no chance. I think they have a very fair shot, and I'll share more tomorrow.

 

As for looking at the road losses for the Colts, it certainly is perplexing. I can't explain it, but I will say that Manning still has a QB rating of 100 on grass, and Grossman's QB rating on grass is actually a slight bit lower than what it was for 6 games on turf - 73.2.

 

These numbers don't prove anything, just showing them and adding that the Colts as a team have really tightened up in the playoffs, and are playing at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball. If you look at the way they finished out the season, you may have been tempted to fade the Colts to the bank, and take the Chiefs, Ravens, and Patriots. And you would have lost all 3.

 

As for the superbowl being a road game, I have a take on that and have created what I think is a good and fair analysis of the stats, taking into account several types of games, including road, home, L3 road and Playoffs, and creating one number for each stat. As you can probably tell, I don't view this as a road game, nor is it a home game... more tomorrow.

 

To rattass - I do anticipate, as you do, heavier Colts action next weekend. I will guess that we'll have fairly split money on the spread.

 

As for my write-up - I've been working on the numbers and writeup for several days now. I will look to post it tomorrow. The only problem is, it will take up several posts to get it all in there. I know most people just want to see a pick, and don't care to read all the analysis. But that analysis is how I come to my pick, and I would rather post my reasoning rather then research on my own for days and just post a one-word team name and leave it at that. Read what you want of it. Just letting you know, it will be a very detailed, long write up.

 

So I'll get it up there and if you have time to read it all, I look forward to hearing your feedback and answering any questions.

 

Good luck this week and here's to hoping we all come out + money on Sunday night.

[Gdawg]

 

 

I know most people just want to see a pick, and don't care to read all the analysis. But that analysis is how I come to my pick, and I would rather post my reasoning rather then research on my own for days and just post a one-word team name and leave it at that.

 

 

Good luck this week and here's to hoping we all come out + money on Sunday night.

 

 

Dre, I wouldn't take your advice as seriously as I do without your detailed analysis. It's good stuff!

[Steeltown Dre]

Before you read all of this, I wanted to tell you that since it was so long, I created a blog to write it all there. It is formatted a little better and should be easier to read.

 

Here is the location: http://superbowlanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

After writing this, I realize it is much too long than it needs to be. However, I am a junkie and love running numbers and scenarios. Since I already typed it all up, I might as well post it. Also, I normally like to format everything an bold/underline the key stats. Unfortunately this would take too long w/ this kind of editing, so I am sorry but it will be a little more difficult to read. So there's your warning.

 

Section 1: Background

Section 2: The Game

Section 3: Scenario 1 Stats

Section 4: Scenario 2 Stats

Section 5: Scenario 3 Stats

Section 6: Passer Rating

Section 7: Special Teams

Section 8: Red Zone

Section 9: O-Line/D-Line

Section 10: Conclusions

Section 11: My Pick

 

Section 1:

 

Background:

 

I have spent some quality time looking at all aspects of this game, and I will present the numbers to you as always: Unbiased and untarnished. My comparisons are the most fair that you will find, and you can read below to find out why.

 

To the guys who think stats don't matter in this big game, that think it is such a big game that you just have to make a "gut call", I say: Finding edges in statistical categories leads to finding strengths and weaknesses in a team. Teams do this themselves when preparing for an opponent. We can do this to find potential avenues with which to predict certain scenarios in the game. Predicting certain scenarios, certain schemes, where team A will try to attack team B, and so forth is exactly what each team is doing as we speak. Obviously stats are only a portion of capping the game. You do have to rely on your gut instincts, but sometimes they may lead you down the wrong path. You may rely on some historical data, you may rely on trends. I am not here to debate the merits of any system or method of capping. But I am defending the use of stats, whether it's the Super Bowl or a week 9 game, comparing stats is never going to be a bad thing.

 

Trying to get everything you need to know from NFL Live or ESPN's Sportscenter is going to lead you in the wrong direction. I feel you need to look at the numbers yourself and figure out the deeper meaning. I listen to injury reports and some info from the media, but what you should understand over at ESPN is that they have a room of "stat boys" who dig up the stats, and pass them onto the talking heads on TV. These talking heads just latch onto a few key stats and regurgitate them for 2 weeks every chance they get, to make dramatic opinions and keep you tuned in. Many times, they don't give you the complete picture, just the glamorous part or the portion that they believe will matter the most to the game.

 

What we really want is the complete, unbiased story, and then we can make up our own mind. That's what I try to do anyways.

 

The Game:

 

The Super Bowl is always an interesting game to cap. There are many things that play into this game that make it unique. I won't get into everything, as I am sure you are aware of many of the difficulties in attempting to predict the outcome in a game like this. But a few things include the 2 week prep time for both teams/coaches, every possession being more critical, every mistake is magnified, and the tendency for teams who are down to perhaps get more aggressive earlier than they normally would (this depends on coaching but is more likely to happen than in any other game). I realize that a few stats may be more important than others. Of course, of prime importance in any football game, let alone the Super Bowl, is who wins the turnover battle. We will get into that in a little while.

 

Section 2:

 

Not a Home Game, but Not a Road Game (background on why I ran my numbers the way I did):

 

Another thing is this game is played at a neutral site. There has been much debate: Is it a road game? Who is the "home team"? The answer from a gambling perspective is: Both teams are playing in a "laid-back" road environment. It is not hostile. While there are many fans from the other team, there also may be an even amount of your own fans there. It is well known that the game is a very commercial game, and many of the people there are not die hard fans from one team or another. You have your corporate people who are there to network and watch a game, and then you have neutral fans who want to see a good SB, and won't be rooting like they would be at a home game for their favorite team. And then you have your die hard fans from either the Bears or Colts, who will be making as much noise as they can. So while it won't be a home dome game for the Colts who have dead silence to work with on offense, it also won't be like walking into NE or Ten and having a stadium full of rabid fans from the other team. Same for Chi, they won't have the home support, the comforts of their cold climate and boisterous fans. So it's not a home game, but it's not really a road game in a hostile environment, such as in Min or in GB.

 

When capping games, lately I have been looking primarily at how teams have performed in their L3 or L4 games either home or away, depending on whether they were host or visitor. But I disagree with using only the L3 road numbers for both teams in the Super Bowl. For that reason, I have spent some time adjusting a program to give me flexibility to decide which parameters are most important.

 

I have my stats divided into 4 categories:

 

Season Home Games

Season Road Games

L3 Road Games (during the season)

Playoff Games

 

I am able to add any weight to the 4 categories I choose, so long as they add to 100%. So whether I want the playoff games count for 50% of the stats or 35% or any % I choose, I can.

 

I have chosen to look at the stats this way because how a team did in a home game in week 12 should play into their season stats, but not nearly as much as how they did at home week 1, or how they did in the playoffs.

 

Important

 

Also, the way that I like to cap games is not to just look at PPG scored for the home team and compare it to PPG scored for the road team. To me, that is pretty meaningless. The missing piece to that puzzle is who their opponents have been. If the Colts are putting up 20 PPG on the Pats, Ravens and Jags, 3 top teams in PPG allowed, while the Bears are putting up 30 PPG on the Lions, Titans and Cardinals 3 of the worst teams in PPG allowed, you can't compare the 20 to the 30.

 

You need to compare Indy's PPG scored w/ avg PPG allowed by Indy's opposition. Once you have that number, you can compare it to Chicago's PPG scored w/ avg PPG allowed by Chicago's opposition.

 

I have seen many "Super Bowl systems" that rank several statistical categories of the Colts and Bears, such as PPG, total yards allowed, rushing YPR, and others, and then say that the Bears will win the game because they have higher scores in 7 of the 10 categories compared to the Bears. To me, that is fine, but not ideal. As I said, if their opposition was different, you are no longer comparing apples to apples. To do this, you can't even just compare the overall "Strength of Schedule" of their opposition, you have to compare PPG allowed (for instance) on average for the Colts opposition, and then see how many PPG the Colts scored against them on average, to see if the Colts performed average, above average, or below average in PPG. And then you have to do the same w/ the Bears, and then you can finally compare the two teams to see how the performed in PPG vs. their opposition.

 

I know I am discussing stats in this thread. That is what I like to do. I also know that there are many who say "throw stats out the window for the Super Bowl, Colts roll". Or "Bears cover - no brainer". That is fine if you want to use your gambling judgment. Stats only play a part of my overall capping. But I feel they should be used and studied to determine if an obvious or subtle advantage is found. So while I use my gambling judgment as well when making my final play, I also like to look at what the stats are showing.

 

Now that I have introduced the background on how and why I do my calculations, I will begin to show you what I have come up with. As I said, I can determine what part of the season I want to weigh most in my calculations. So I am using several combinations. If you would like to see one that is not listed, feel free to post and ask me to show it. Just make sure it adds up to 100% or it would not make sense. Here are the 3 I am going with right now:

 

Scenario 1 (a 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late)

 

Season Home Games: 20%

Season Road Games: 30% (of which 15 % is L3 Road)

Playoffs: 50%

 

Scenario 2 (Not as much emphasis on the playoffs, but still over double that of a regular season game. More of a focus on road games over the season)

 

Season Home Games: 20%

Season Road Games: 45% (of which 17 % is L3 Road)

Playoffs: 35%

 

Scenario 3 (Extremely playoff heavy, and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly road games)

 

Season Home Games: 5%

Season Road Games: 10% (of which 5% is L3 Road)

Playoffs: 85%

Edited January 31, 2007 by Steeltown Dre